Amir Handjani
When the United Arab Emirates exits OPEC on May 1, it will not be abandoning a club so much as declaring that the club no longer serves its interests. That distinction matters. Abu Dhabi’s departure is not a reaction to a single grievance but the convergence of three forces: the Iran war, a deepening rivalry with Saudi Arabia, and a strategic realignment with Washington that has been years in the making.
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has made the UAE a front-line state in ways it did not fully expect. Iran justified targeting Emirati territory by citing Abu Dhabi’s decades-long strategic alignment with Washington, a designation formalized when the United States named the UAE a “major defense partner” in 2024. Iranian strikes hit Fujairah’s industrial zone, rattled Jebel Ali’s port, and sent smoke over Dubai’s skyline. The UAE has absorbed this punishment largely alone. Its Gulf Cooperation Council partners offered solidarity, but, as Emirati presidential advisor Anwar Gargash pointedly noted at the Gulf Influencers forum on Monday, their political and military response was “the weakest historically.”
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