Get Ready, China: Taiwan's Navy Has Big Plans

James Goldrick

August 17, 2015

Taiwan lives every day with the threat posed by the increasingly capable armed forces of the People's Republic of China (PRC). The Taiwanese Navy in particular has to consider both the prospect of a direct attack on the main island and the potential interdiction of its shipping, a critical problem for a country absolutely dependent on imported energy and resources.

This creates a constant tension between capabilities, which would prevent or delay an amphibious assault and those required for longer-range sea-control operations. There is, for example, a lively debate on the priority that should be given to mine warfare ahead of more expensive precision-guided weapons and targeting systems, and larger ships

Circumstances are pushing the Taiwanese Navy to a much greater level of autonomous capability development than it would want. Taiwan has long built its own surface combatants, but the difficulty of getting access to high capability designs is forcing it to be even more ambitious. While previous classes have been constructed to American or European designs, it now plans to build indigenous units, with a class of four 8000+ ton guided missile destroyers the centerpiece of the program, supplemented by high speed missile carrying attack catamarans, the first of which is in service.

Is Xi Sending an Ultimatum to Former President Jiang Zemin?

By Bo Zhiyue

August 17, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/is-xi-sending-an-ultimatum-to-former-president-jiang-zemin/

Eleven days after Guo Boxiong, one of Jiang Zemin’s lieutenants in the People’s Liberation Army and former vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and Politburo member for a decade (2002-2012), was expelled from the Party for corruption and handed over to the military prosecutors for legal procedures, the People’s Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, published an article on August 10, 2015 on the issue of old men in politics.

In the article, titled “Look at the phenomenon of ‘out of sight, out of mind’ dialectically,” the author argued that those who have retired should not interfere with the work of those in power. Playing off the Chinese metaphor, the article said it should be considered normal for the “tea to get cold” as soon as the tea drinker leaves the tea house. In fact, many leading cadres have just done that. After their retirement, they no longer intervene in the business of their successors. However, some leaders refuse to accept the new normal and would like to “keep the tea hot” after their departure. In other words, they would like to retain “residual power” after their retirement.

North Korea Threatens to Attack US Homeland

By Franz-Stefan Gady

August 17, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/north-korea-threatens-to-attack-us-homeland/

North Korea threatened to attack the United States should it not call off this year’s Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercise, an annual joint U.S.-South Korean military drill, CNN reports.

“If [the] United States wants their mainland to be safe, then the Ulchi Freedom Guardian should stop immediately,” a newswoman for the state TV station, KCNA, emphasized.

North Korea is ready to “retaliate against the U.S. with tremendous muscle,” according to a spokesman for North Korea’s National Defense Commission (NDC).

“The further Ulchi Freedom Guardian joint military exercises are intensified, the strongest military counteraction the (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) will take to cope with them,” he added.

The spokesman also noted that the North Korean military has new weapon systems unknown to the world in its arsenal:

Russia, China and Pakistan: An Emerging New Axis?

By Joy Mitra

August 18, 2015

Regional realities are shifting fast, with some significant ramifications for India.

In geopolitics, strategic realities can change with surprising speed, and even before countries realize it decisive shifts occur that shape the future for the years to come. That seems to be the case with traditional Cold War rivals Russia and Pakistan, which have of late seen a gradual warming of ties. Traditionally an ally of India and hitherto supportive of India’s stance on Kashmir, Russia has shown clear signs of cozying up to Pakistan.

Having earlier lifted its self-imposed arms embargo on Pakistan, in November 2014 Russia signed a landmark“military cooperation” agreement with Pakistan, which spoke about “exchanging information on politico-military issues, strengthening collaboration in the defense and counter-terrorism sectors, sharing similar views on developments in Afghanistan and doing business with each other.” There have been reports that Pakistan may purchase Mi-35 combat helicopters apart from directly importing the Klimov RD-93 engines from Russiarather than via China for its JF-17 multi-role fighters. This could also mean a significant role for Russian equipment and spares in future development of the fighter. In addition, Russian state-owned firm Rostekh Corporation is planning to build a 680 mile gas pipeline in Pakistan in 2017 at an estimated cost of $2.5 billion.

CHINA’S MAGINOT LINE

ROBBIE GRAMER AND RACHEL RIZZO

AUGUST 11, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/chinas-maginot-line/

For the month of August, we have chosen to feature two original contributions in Strategic Outpost from our next generation of national security thinkers. We hope you enjoy these thoughtful pieces from young men and women already rising to be the future leaders in this field. We’ll return to our regular Barno & Bensahel columns in September. Meanwhile, best wishes for some great summertime reading!

In the 1930s, wary of a revanchist Germany, France constructed an elaborate fortification system stretching across its eastern border. This state-of-the-art defensive network, the Maginot Line, ultimately did little to protect France. Its effect was entirely negated by Nazi Germany’s innovative blitzkrieg strategy that wholly bypassed French defenses, unexpectedly striking through the Ardennes forest and neutral Belgium. The Maginot Line became a ubiquitous symbol of failure in defense planning; an adversary that adapted its offensive strategy to bypass the line quickly rendered one of the strongest and most elaborate defense networks the world had yet seen irrelevant. The lessons of the Maginot Line extend well into the 21st century, as China constructs a coastal and offshore defensive belt to defend both its maritime and territorial claims with high-tech and static capabilities.

Mullah Omar’s Death: Pakistan’s Pursuit Of Strategic Stake To Continue? – Analysis

By Divya Kumar Soti

August 17th, 2015

Source Link

Mullah Omar has died again, though this time he has died conclusively. In the high-voltage drama surrounding the declaration about his death “in Karachi in 2013” certain things are particularly notable. The announcement of Mullah Omar’s death came out after US-China-Pakistan-sponsored Murree peace talks attended by key Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network delegates. Though the Murree talks were described by the sponsors as a sort of breakthrough it was unclear from day one as to what actually came out of that meeting, except an intent expressed by all sides to meet again soon. The Taliban faction running the Qatar political office had stayed away from the Murree talks.

Clearly, the sense Pakistan and other players, including the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) cronies in Afghan Taliban must have gathered from Murree experience was that Pakistan’s new policy goals in Afghanistan can not be realized without bringing the organization into discipline by sidelining Taliban factional leaders not ready to be tamed by ISI.

Serious rumors of Mullah Omar’s death had emerged multiple times in last few years, but neither the Afghan government nor the US tried to confirm them. However, this time when news of his death first originated through a splinter Taliban faction Fidai Mahaj, which was once cleared by erstwhile Tehrik-e-Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud from his domain on insistence of Afghan Taliban leadership, Kabul as well as Washington almost immediately confirmed it, while Pakistan conspicuously refrained from denying it despite the fact that sub-title of the story was that he died in a Karachi hospital back in 2013.

China: The Green Leap Forward

By Cecily Huang and Daniel Graham

August 13, 2015

Why the world’s biggest coal consumer is winning the race to develop clean energy. 

When Michael Pareles came to Beijing in 2004 it was the opportunity of a lifetime. Fluent in Chinese, he worked as a trade specialist for the American meat industry just as the Chinese economic juggernaut was beginning to take off.

But life presents its own challenges to residents of Chinese cities. “People have to change their behavior to protect themselves from air pollution,” he says, referring to the ubiquitous face masks worn by Chinese urbanites.

China’s pollution problem is a cause of severe health problems for its citizens. In 2008, a year after the People’s Republic boasted a record 14.2 percent GDP growth, air pollution caused more than 470,000 premature deaths.

Regular exercise is often difficult. “I got a mild respiratory infection in 2012, and it lasted so long that I had to put off my marathon training,” Parales says. He returned to the United States in 2014; one of the reasons for his departure was the intensity of the air pollution.

After Iran, U.S. presses for solution to Syrian civil war

By MICHAEL CROWLEY

8/17/15

http://www.politico.eu/article/after-iran-u-s-presses-for-solution-to-syrian-civil-war/

Three months ago, Secretary of State John Kerry flew to the Black Sea resort town of Sochi for an unexpected meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A central topic: the civil war in Syria.

The meeting was a key part of recent engagement between the U.S. and Moscow on the vexing question of how to end Syria’s brutal civil war, which has left nearly 250,000 dead, fueled the rise of the Islamic State terrorist group, and helped to radicalize would-be terrorists around the world.

Now Russia is at the center of a new flurry of Syria-focused diplomacy which has followed the Iran nuclear deal, and which might even involve a new round of direct talks between Washington and Tehran, Syria’s staunchest ally.

“The strategic landscape on Syria has shifted in a fairly significant way,” a senior administration official said in an interview.

But skeptics both inside the administration and out warn that efforts to work Moscow and Tehran, arguably two of America’s top rivals, are far-fetched and could easily backfire.

THE TROUBLE WITH TURKEY’S FAVORITE SYRIAN ISLAMISTS

SAM HELLER AND AARON STEIN

AUGUST 18, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/the-trouble-with-turkeys-favorite-syrian-islamists/

Turkey's close relationship with Ahrar al-Sham, a Salafist rebel movement, runs counter to U.S. interests and raises serious questions about Ankara's aims in Syria.

In April 2012, Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu authored a paper that was to be the basis for Turkey’s Arab Spring doctrine — a “values-based foreign policy” for a region in flux. Davutoglu articulated an interventionist approach according to which Turkey would pursue greater regional integration and encourage representative democracy. He also repeated a central theme from his book, Strategic Depth, pledging that Turkey would work to avoid “new tensions and polarizations” in the region, particularly along sectarian and political lines.

Question: Would a Republican President Really Undo the Iran Deal?

Peter Harris

August 18, 2015

Source Link

Even if President Obama’s controversial deal with Iran survives next month’s pitched battle in Congress, the triumph could well prove to be short-lived. In particular, the distinct possibility will remain that the Iran deal gets undone by his immediate successor in the White House. And with would-be Republican nominees falling over themselves to criticize Obama’s approach to the Iranian nuclear question, such an eventuality cannot be ruled out. Importantly, this is true whether or not reversing the Iran deal will make strategic sense in 2017.

At first glance, it might seem unlikely that any incoming president would possess either the will or the way to nix the Iran deal. Upon assuming office 17 months from now, the next Commander-in-Chief will probably be briefed by members of the permanent bureaucracy that President Obama, John Kerry and America’s allies were correct all along: that the Geneva framework is the best available option to deny Iran a nuclear weapons capability. The preponderance of official advice will no doubt be against shattering the hard-won international consensus that now exists regarding how to deal with Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

What Do We Know About Bangkok’s Deadly Blast?

By Jeff Moore

August 18, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/what-do-we-know-about-bangkoks-deadly-blast/

On August 17, at least one explosion occurred at 6:55 pm, Bangkok time, at the revered Erawan Shrine, located at the corner of Phloen Chit and Ratchadamri Road in Thailand. Officials have confirmed that at least 16 people were killed and more than 80 were wounded, though local media reports already suggest that the death toll could be much higher.

As authorities investigate, more details will come in, and the above information is expected to change. Accordingly, the party responsible has yet to be identified, but an initial analysis of the attack is possible based on what we know so far.

First, because of the location and timing of the explosion, the attackers meant for it to be an exceedingly high casualty event.

Location-wise, the Erawan Shrine is continually filled with tourists and worshippers. It’s situated on a busy intersection; it’s on the city’s most popular shopping street; it’s directly below a skywalk for Bangkok’s BTS/Skytrain; and it’s close to scores of eateries and the Grand Hyatt hotel. Hundreds of people pass by the shrine every 30 minutes on a daily basis.

The Iran Nuclear Agreement and Iranian Energy Exports, the Iranian Economy, and World Energy Markets

By Anthony H. Cordesman

AUG 17, 2015 

Source Link

Much of the examination of the Iran nuclear agreement has focused on the funds that would be released once Iran complied with the terms of the agreement. Some estimates of the near term cash benefit that Iran will receive have gone as high as $150 billion – although U.S. experts put the total at $100 billion and note that some $50 billion of this money has already been obligated.

The other side of the story is how relieving sanctions would affect Iran’s oil and gas exports, Iranian export income, the overall Iranian economy, and global oil markets and prices. This will be a function of how soon Iran complies with the terms of the agreement, how the agreement affects the lifting of sanctions, how much capacity Iran can bring back on line at a given time, Iran’s ability to increase future production, the demand for Iran’s exports, and the nature of the world oil market.

It will also be affected by the strategic competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia and other crises in countries like Libya and Iraq, as well as by the growing uncertainties in the global economy and demand for oil.

Much of Asia’s Celestial mountain glacier ice could melt by 2050

17 August 2015 

Source Link

Tien Shan’s glaciers are melting fast (Image: CC BY 2.0)

Glaciers are disappearing globally faster than at any time since records began 100 years ago. Most of those in central Asia could be gone by 2050.

The Celestial mountains of central Asia, the Tien Shan range, are thought to be where apples originated. But they have lost 27 per cent of their glacier mass since 1961, thanks to rising summer temperatures, and could lose a further half of what remains by 2050, according to research by Daniel Farinotti of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research in Birmensdorf, Switzerland.

Because meltwater from the glaciers supplies the Fergana Valley, one of the largest irrigated areas on earth, the impact on farmers could be immense. The snow and glacier melt from Tien Shan also provides water to northern China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. “It’s like a huge water tower,” says Farinotti.

Dramatic drop

Why U.S. Leaders Don't Need to Fear Latin American 'Soft Balancers'

Tom LongMax Paul Friedman

August 18, 2015

Source Link

Secretary of State John Kerry’s August 14 visit to Cuba has provoked a storm of comment, criticism and speculation. Senator Marco Rubio and other detractors have decried the restoration of diplomatic relations as appeasing aging dictators. Some commentators have asked whether the United States will reassert its leadership of the hemisphere now that it has finally ended the most visible remaining vestige of Cold War policy in Latin America. Critics and supporters alike fret over the implications for democracy and development on the island.

Whether one sees the new policy as diplomatic triumph or disaster, the focus has been on the next chapter of the rancorous bilateral relationship between the United States and Cuba.

Iran's Nuclear Fairy Tale Continued

Shimon SteinEmily B. Landau

August 18, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/irans-nuclear-fairy-tale-13604

In an op-ed in The Guardian last month, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif took his country’s ongoing nuclear fairy tale—according to which Iran has “done no wrong” in the nuclear realm—to the next level. On the basis of his claim that Iran has upheld the spirit of the NPT, whereas the other side has not adhered, he is now making demands that nuclear states begin to disarm and that a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ) be established in the Middle East. Not only that, but based on Zarif’s remarks, it is noted that Iran is signaling that it would like to take on the leadership of the campaigns for disarmament and the creation of a WMDFZ.

But here's the thing: Iran has blatantly violated the spirit and the letter of the NPT because it worked on a military nuclear capability for decades, in violation of the NPT. Still, Iran continues the farce by denying both the work it did in the past, and the fact that it still harbors military nuclear ambitions. Iran is of course a regional bully—a supporter of terrorism and a state that has the audacity to say that another sovereign state, Israel, has no place in the Middle East, and how it longs for Israel's annihilation.

Carbon Emissions Falling Fast as Wind and Solar Replace Fossil Fuels

Paul Brown

August 12, 2015

http://ecowatch.com/2015/08/12/wind-solar-replace-fossil-fuels/

Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions are falling fast, mainly because of the rapid spread of thewind turbines and solar panels that are replacing fossil fuels for electricity generation.

European Union (EU) data shows that once countries adopt measures to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs), they often exceed their targets—and this finding is backed up by figures released this week in a statement by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The Convention’s statistics show that the 37 industrialized countries (plus the EU) that signed up in 1997 to the Kyoto Protocol—the original international treaty on combating global warming—have frequently exceeded their promised GHG cuts by a large margin.

Beacon for governments

The UNFCCC statement says, “This is a powerful demonstration that climate changeagreements not only work, but can drive even higher ambition over time.”

5 ways the world will look dramatically different in 2100

By Ana Swanson 

August 17,2015

Source Link

Think the world is crowded now? You haven’t seen anything yet. 

The world is expected to add another billion people within the next 15 years, bringing the total global population from 7.3 billion in mid-2015 to 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion by 2100, according to new estimates from the UN. 

Currently, 60 percent of the global population lives in Asia, 16 percent in Africa, 10 percent in Europe, 9 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and only 5 percent in North America and Oceania. China and India are the largest countries in the world, together making up almost 40 percent of the world population. 

But those numbers won’t stay that way for long. The charts below, created by data scientist Tariq Khokhar for the World Bank data blog using the medium estimates of the UN figures, show our world is set to change in surprising ways. 

1. Get ready for another 4 billion people by 2100. 

UkRAINE AND THE ART OF EXHAUSTION

Long-Form 

August 11, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/ukraine-and-the-art-of-exhaustion/

Russia’s war against Ukraine is now well into its second year. The contested area in East Ukraine is still marked by regular exchanges of fire and equally regular losses of life. At the end of June, the United Nations reported that 6,500 people had perished in the past year of the conflict, along with 16,000 wounded and that 5 million were in need of aid. There have been regular warnings of new Russian offensives, but these have yet to materialize, and for all the effort put in by both sides, the basic contours of the conflict have barely changed since last September. It is not evident that either side has a strategy for bringing the conflict to a conclusion. The situation can be described as one in which they are both seeking the exhaustion of the other. Exhaustion here does not so much describe a physical state of being unable to continue with the struggle, but more of a mental state – a sense of weariness and futility that leads to a readiness to accept a political compromise that would previously have been rejected. Exhaustion can be the result not only of frustration with a military position, but also of economic pressure and political discontent.

It is not unusual for conflicts to settle down to probes and pushes after an initial period marked by bigger movements and exchanges of territory, reaching a point where both sides are tired without either being ready to concede. In such situations, there may well be temptations to attempt occasional offensives intended to achieve breakthroughs or at least cause attrition. There may also be, as in this case, attempts by third parties to mediate cease-fires and peace treaties. A conflict that has reached the state of a “mutually hurting stalemate” is often seen to be one ripe for a negotiated settlement. Yet this does not mean that such efforts will succeed: they can instead provide breathing space, a chance to regain energy, and so in the end prolong the struggle.

Technology vs. Policy: How Legally Mandated Backdoors Compromise Security

Laura K. Bate

August 18, 2015

Source Link

The increasing demand for surveillance-proof computing has led to more advanced forms of encryption. Most notably, in 2014, Apple released anoperating system that cannot be unlocked; even with a lawful warrant, Apple itself lacks the technological capacity to crack into a password-locked device. Google announced their plans for encryption the next day. Pre-existing systems that use whole disk or end-to-end encryption are also rising in popularity.

Law enforcement broadly and the Justice Department specifically were not pleased with this development in technology. In an effort spearheaded by FBI director James Comey and Deputy Attorney General Sally Quinlan Yates, the U.S. government is trying to expand its capacity to compel tech giants like Apple and Google to develop a so-called “backdoor” into their encrypted devices.

A question of perspective: Technology versus policy

The Sources of Netanyahu's Conduct

Daniel Levy

August 18, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-sources-netanyahus-conduct-13603?page=show

Benjamin Netanyahu is an out there kind of politician. He courts, even thrives on controversy. It is hardly unusual for a political leader to play exclusively to their base, scare-monger or use dog whistle appeals to racism and jingoism. Many supporters in Israel, America and elsewhere revel in Bibi’s brash style, many opponents recoil in revulsion. With Netanyahu poised to overtake David Ben-Gurion as the longest ever occupant of the Israeli prime minister's office, it is hard to argue that this style has not served him well.

In his campaign against the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of action or JCPOA, Netanyahu appears to have doubled down on his abrasive and divisive in-your-face politics.

Interview: Analyzing Thailand’s Erawan Shrine Bomb Blast

By Prashanth Parameswaran

August 18, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/interview-analyzing-thailands-erawan-shrine-bomb-blast/

Dr. Zachary Abuza is an independent analyst who writes on Southeast Asian politics and security issues.

He recently spoke with The Diplomat’s associate editor Prashanth Parameswaran about the deadly bomb blast that occurred on August 17 in Bangkok – one of the worst attacks of this kind Thailand has experienced in recent memory. An edited version of that interview follows.

We’ve seen a number of attempted and actual attacks in Thailand since the ruling junta seized power in a coup last May. What makes this attack different from ones we have seen in the past?

There have been a number of small attacks in Thailand since the coup that has been attributed to radical ‘Red Shirt’ supporters of the toppled government of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra. These include a hand grenade attack in front of the Criminal Court in March 2015. But this attack was different for a few reasons. First, while other attacks have used low level explosives, Thai police are reporting that the bomb used in the Erawan Shrine attack was three kilograms of TNT – qualitatively different. No other attack was used to cause mass casualties. Second, other attacks have targeted symbols of the regime, this targeted a very popular tourist venue in the symbolic heart of Bangkok, across from three malls and many hotels. They have never targeted foreigners.

What’s Behind Thailand’s Deadly Bomb Blast?

By Prashanth Parameswaran

August 18, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/whats-behind-thailands-deadly-bomb-blast/

A bomb planted inside one of Thailand’s most renowned shrines exploded Monday evening, killing at least 16 people and wounding more than 80 in what appears to be the worst in a series of explosions since the Thai military took power in a coup last May.

According to The Bangkok Post, the blast occurred at 6:55pm local time near the Erawan Shrine, an important tourist destination by the busy Ratchaprasong intersection in the center of Bangkok. The shrine is popular among both locals as well as foreign tourists, particularly ethnic Chinese from East Asian nations like Singapore and Taiwan.

Police have confirmed that at least 16 people have been killed, including one Filipino and Chinese national, though some sources have already reported the death toll to have risen. Local media sources have said that most of the wounded were from China and Taiwan.

ISIS Is a Concern but Not a Serious Threat to Central Asia

By Catherine Putz

August 18, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/isis-is-a-concern-but-not-a-serious-threat-to-central-asia/

“… it’s not like the barbarians are at the doorstep ready to sweep into all of Central Asia.”

In a recent interview with VOA Uzbek Service’s Navbahor Imamova, outgoing Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland, commented on regional worries about ISIS and the importance of people to people connections. Hoagland, while offering nuanced comments on diplomacy, seemed to dodge away from answering what worries him most about the region’s future.

The threat of ISIS – or more specifically, Central Asians joining the extremist group in Syria and then returning to Central Asia – is a concern cited by Central Asian governments. While Moscow has highlighted the threat of both ISIS and Taliban spillover from Afghanistan, Washington has downplayed the threat, though not dismissing it entirely. “Now we would judge that while we must be vigilant, while we need to pay close attention, this [ISIS] is not yet a major serious threat to the security and governments and peoples of Central Asia.”

When it comes to war in space, U.S. has the edge

By David Axe

August 10, 2015

A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket carrying the third Mobile User Objective System satellite for the U.S. Navy lifts off from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, January 20, 2015 U.S. Navy

Quietly and without most people noticing, the world’s leading space powers — the United States, China and Russia — have been deploying new and more sophisticated weaponry in space.

Earth’s orbit is looking more and more like the planet’s surface — heavily armed and primed for war. A growing number of “inspection” satellites lurk in orbit, possibly awaiting commands to sneak up on and disable or destroy other satellites. Down on the surface, more and more warships and ground installations pack powerful rockets that, with accurate guidance, could reach into orbit to destroy enemy spacecraft.

A war in orbit could wreck the delicate satellite constellations that the world relies on for navigation, communication, scientific research and military surveillance. Widespread orbital destruction could send humanity through a technological time warp. “You go back to World War Two,” Air Force General John Hyten, in charge of U.S. Space Command, told 60 Minutes. “You go back to the Industrial Age.”

IS NATO TREATING POLAND LIKE A BUFFER STATE?

JOHN R. DENI

AUGUST 18, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/is-nato-treating-poland-like-a-buffer-state/

Polish President Andrzej Duda is wrong when he argues that Poland and other NATO member states east of Germany are being treated like second-class allies.

Last week, the newly inaugurated president of Poland, Andrzej Duda made waves when he said, in an interview with the Financial Times, that NATO is treating his country like a buffer state. He referenced specifically the “disposition of bases” in NATO, which reveals that Germany is regarded as the alliance’s eastern edge. Furthermore, Duda argued that if Poland and other Eastern European states are truly to be the alliance’s eastern flank, then NATO military forces ought to be arrayed permanently on Eastern European soil.

THE LONG SHADOW OF WWII OVER MARITIME ASIA

MIRA RAPP-HOOPER

AUGUST 17, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/the-long-shadow-of-wwii-over-maritime-asia/

Today's most dangerous territorial disputes are firmly rooted in the post-World War II peace settlement constructed by the United States.

Over the weekend, the world observed the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War in the Pacific theater. Thoughtful analysts have explored how the war and postwar settlement continue to shape historical memory in East Asia. Over at the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, we have a collection of maps that explain Asia at the end of the war, as well as several pieces on the role that maritime Asia played in the strategies of the victorious Allies in 1945. Rarely recalled, however, is the fact that the 21st-century standoffs over the Kuril Islands, Spratly and Paracel Islands, and Senkaku Islands have roots in the postwar settlement, which was largely constructed by the United States.

WHY THE NEW SYRIAN ARMY FAILED: WASHINGTON AND UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

DAVID MAXWELL

AUGUST 17, 2015

The Obama administration did not allow the U.S. military to conduct a proper unconventional warfare campaign, making the failure of Washington's favored Syrian rebels inevitable.

All public signs point to failure in a key U.S. effort to turn the tide of the brutal Syrian civil war — the training and fielding of a vetted and politically palatable Syrian force to fight the Islamic State. As Nancy Youssef reveals in The Daily Beast, exasperated U.S. officials are trying to adapt in the wake of disastrous setbacks for the Syrian forces back by the United States, including the New Syrian Army and Division 30. An initial contingent was beaten up badly by rival groups, including al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, not long after it was introduced back into the wild. Washington’s favored Syrians are now in disarray and in a public spat with the Pentagon over its mission.

This should lead us to ask, why can’t the United States conduct effective unconventional warfare any longer?

US, Malaysia Launch Naval Exercise

By Prashanth Parameswaran

August 18, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/us-malaysia-launch-naval-exercise/

On August 17, the United States and Malaysia kicked off a bilateral naval exercise in Sandakan in eastern Malaysia.

The 21st annual Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) Malaysia exercise is designed to address shared maritime security concerns, build relationships and enhance interoperability between U.S. and Malaysian Armed Forces. It is part of a series of bilateral naval exercises conducted by the U.S. Navy with partners and now involves nine countries in South and Southeast Asia – Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Timor-Leste (See: “US Eyes Expanded Military Exercises with ASEAN Navies”).

CARAT Malaysia 2015 will involve more than 1,000 U.S. military members alongside counterparts from the Malaysian Armed Services. It consists of five days of shore-based and at sea training events through August 21. According to a statement by the U.S. Navy seen by The Diplomat, the exercise will feature simultaneous amphibious landings, surface warfare drills, visit, board, search and seizure (VBSS) demonstrations, explosive ordnance disposal training, maritime patrol and reconnaissance operations, a gunnery exercise, coastal riverine drills, and civil engineering projects between U.S. Navy Seabees and Malaysian partners. Personnel from both nations will also exchange best practices on naval tactics during a series of military seminars on shore.

While the U.S. Air Force Tried to Kill the A-10, Officials Struggled to Keep the Jets Airborne

Joseph Trevithick

August 12, 2015

Source Link

Conflicting policies starved the Warthog of upgrades

U.S. Air Force leaders do their best to present a single viewpoint regarding the A-10 Warthog. To hear them tell it, the aircraft is worn out, vulnerable and has to go. Anyone who disagrees is ruled by personal biases and emotions.

“I would be disappointed if the people who flew the A-10, if the people who train with the A-10 weren’t emotional about this,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh told reporters at the Pentagon on Jan. 15, 2015. “[But] for the Air Force, it’s not an emotional issue.”

However, an official Air Combat Command history reveals that Air Force polices and instructions regarding the A-10 were often confusing, conflicting or missing altogether. The flying branch wanted to retire the aircraft–but high demand from the war in Afghanistan and pressure from Congress blocked the move.

'Force of future' to reward talent, diversity, motherhood

By Tom Philpott

Talent Mgt in IA? Well, WELL, WELL......Is it time for the RM to catch the bull by the horn? Like US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter? Does he have in it him/ Time to prove.

Defense Secretary Ashton Carter next month will be presented with a package of detailed proposals for reshaping military and defense civilian pays, promotions and quality of life, all of which strive to capture a “Force of the Future” vision that Carter laid out in a speech last March.

The draft proposals, reviewed over the past week by the services’ assistant secretaries for manpower, and by personnel chiefs of Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps, are wide ranging, innovative and many will be controversial. 

For example, to shape a more talented military, the Force of the Future package would ask Congress to end the “up or out” promotion and retention systems adopted after World War II. Designed then to ensure youth and vigor, up-or-out today fails to allow forces reliant on technology enough career flexibility and opportunities for personal growth.

Restore the Culture of Command

http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2015-08/restore-culture-command

For the U.S. Navy to retain its most talented young officers, it must revert to its time-tested practice of entrusting them with greater responsibility.

The U.S. Navy is an institution steeped in tradition. One of its most romanticized notions—and defining characteristics as a warfighting organization—is its heritage of a culture of command. In his 1989 analysis of the American military services, The Masks of War , Carl Builder summarized what that culture of command is founded on: “Independent command of ships at sea is a unique, godlike responsibility unlike that afforded to commanding officers in other services.” 1 The skipper and his or her crew sail over the horizon doing the nation’s bidding alone and unafraid. Builder also described what this culture is supposed to evoke in the young Americans who answer the call to take arms: “The concept of independent command at sea . . . like the Holy Grail, is to be sought and honored by every true naval officer.” 2 The tragedy, however, is that the Navy’s storied culture of command is in danger. Current commanders believe they are being stripped of discretionary authority, and an alarming number of future commanders—junior officers—do not aspire to command as much as Builder idealized. This situation is cause for concern, because it threatens to make the Navy a less potent force. Faced with a future that requires not just generic leaders, but naval commanders, the Navy should always be thinking of ways to preserve its culture of command.

This challenge is not new. Early in 1941 Admiral Ernest J. King broadcast his thoughts on the ideals for command:

EDUCATING THE U.S. MILITARY: IS REAL CHANGE POSSIBLE?

JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE

MAY 7, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/05/educating-the-u-s-military-is-real-change-possible/

Editor’s Note: This is the latest article in our special series, “The Schoolhouse.” The aim of this series is to explore and debate the state of advanced graduate education in international affairs. We aim to move beyond the often-repetitive and tiresome debates about the usefulness of scholarship to policy. We believe there are deeper issues at stake. In this article, Joan Johnson-Freese addresses issues afflicting the sometimes-underrated and misunderstood field of professional military education.

Joint professional military education (JPME) in the United States needs to be fixed. And yet too few seem willing to take on the challenge. Through JPME members of the United States military learn professional skills, and as they progress in rank, they are prepared to transition from tactical to operational leaders, and eventually strategic leaders. Its importance was legislatively recognized when the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act mandated educational parameters for the military that have since developed into a continuum of learning. But alas, Congressional attention to PME has waned since its last champion and watchdog, Ike Skelton, left Congress in 2011.

A Nation Shamed - and the mafia marches on

By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

17 Aug , 2015

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/a-nation-shamed-and-the-mafia-marches-on/

Early last year, the former COAS, Gen VK Singh (now MoS in the Modi government) went to lay a wreath at the Amar Jawan Jyoti at India Gate accompanied by 7-8 veteran General Officers – all wearing their regimental side caps and some even their medals. Army Headquarters, or shall we say the misnomer Integrated HQ of MoD (Army) had been informed in advance and so a serving Colonel from Ceremonials and Welfare Directorate of Army HQ was present at the site. But as the veterans came forward to lay the wreath, a company of baton wielding police accompanied with water cannon fitted vehicles charged forward.

This is not the first time that veterans have protested for OROP at Jantar Mantar. On earlier occasion, veterans even returned their medals and gallantry awards to the President, with letters written in their blood.

Plate to Plough: The hands that feed us

Written by Ashok Gulati

August 17, 2015 

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/plate-to-plough-the-hands-that-feed-us/

Indian agriculture has made remarkable progress since 1947 and credit for this goes mainly to the farmer. Now we need to repay our debt to the agricultural community

Whom should we salute for such a turnaround in India’s agri-fortunes? (Illustration C R Sasikumar)

As India celebrates its 68th year of independence, it is time to pause and look back at the major challenges we have faced since Independence and how they were overcome, as well as at the mistakes and follies we committed so that we don’t repeat them.

In 1947, undivided India had a population of 390 million. But overnight, on August 15, India was responsible for the destiny of 330 million people. The other 60 million went to Pakistan — 30 million in West Pakistan and another 30 million in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. A majority of these 330 million people were rural, quite poor, illiterate, and had a very short life expectancy.