Something is not right

Source Link

By Ruth Marcus

Many of us these days find ourselves channeling our inner Miss Clavel. 

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, for one. In Dexter Filkins’s profile of Mattis for the New Yorker, the most striking moment comes when Mattis is asked what worries him most in his new role. Filkins expected to hear about the Islamic State, or Russia, or the defense budget. 

Instead, Mattis went to a deeper, more unsettling problem: “The lack of political unity in America. The lack of a fundamental friendliness. It seems like an awful lot of people in America and around the world feel spiritually and personally alienated, whether it be from organized religion or from local community school districts or from their governments.” 

Something is not right. If anything, Mattis’s diagnosis seems understated. This national distemper, the sour, angry mood infecting the body politic, was evident before Montana congressional candidate Greg Gianforte body-slammed a reporter for daring to ask a question; then had his campaign lie about it; then failed to apologize — until after he won the election. 

It was evident before Gianforte’s current allies and future colleagues were muted, to put it mildly, in the face of his audio-taped assault. “We all make mistakes,” said Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), who chairs the House Republicans’ campaign arm. This was not a mistake; it was an assault on a reporter doing his constitutionally protected job. 

U.S. Army On The Hunt For A New Rifle: Potential Winners

Source Link

Kevin Mackie

The Army wants an upgrade from the M16.

Several companies have key products that may result in a contract.

May be too early to make any bets, but watch for developments.

An initiative to find a better rifle and/or accompanying munitions has been resurrected by the US Army. There was a battery of tests conducted from 2011 to 2013 to find an improved weapon system whose performance out-scaled the M16/M4 but the initiative was abandoned because none of the tested replacement rifles/ammunition showed significant enough of an improvement above that current platform. Another study was started in 2014 and will wrap up in the next couple months that researched further the direction the army should go with their small arms capabilities. Today I will discuss what implications this renewed hunt may have for publicly traded firearm-defense-munitions companies that could be contracted to research, develop, design, and manufacture the new weapon/ammunition, or which companies might be contracted because they already manufacture what the military is looking for. Any contract would potentially be worth hundreds of millions of dollars and could send the lucky stock soaring. Timelines stated by army personnel site 2020 as the hopeful date to have a working prototype.

Martin van Creveld looks at our military white elephants

Source Link 

Summary: Today Martin van Creveld looks at one of the most exceptional aspects of US defense policy, our weapons. A naïf would describe it as quite mad, unaware of the lavish salaries and great corporate fortunes created by tapping the almost limitless flow of taxes from the apathetic and credulous citizens of America.

“In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.

At least since 9/11, and possibly since the First Gulf War back in 1991, it has been clear that the most immediate threat facing developed countries is not other developed countries. It is terrorism, guerrilla, insurgencies, asymmetric war, fourth generation war, war among the people, nontrinitarian war (my own favorite term), whatever. Follows a list — a very partial one, to be sure — of expensive new American weapons and weapon systems, now in various stages of development, all of which have this in common that they are not relevant to the threat in question.

The Painful Story of How U.S. Special-Operations Forces Grew Up

Source Link

by MARK MOYAR 

The first month of 2012 was, indeed, a highly auspicious time to wave the banner of special-operations forces in support of a new national-security strategy. Through the Osama bin Laden raid and other recent victories, special operators had amassed unprecedented prestige both within Washington and in the country more generally. Special-operations forces seemed not only more exciting, but also more efficient and decisive than the conventional military forces that had been employed in the wars of Iraq and Afghanistan. Hollywood was releasing movie after movie extolling the virtues of the special units, including a film called Act of Valor that starred active-duty SEALs. 

On the Internet, dating sites were hit by epidemics of men pretending to be special operators in order to win the hearts of unsuspecting women. Although President Obama relied mainly on subordinates to sell his new strategy to the public, he did cite the special operators while explaining the strategy during an interview with journalist Mark Bowden, who was writing a book on the bin Laden operation. “Special Forces are well designed to deal with the very specific targets in difficult terrain and often-times prevent us from making the bigger strategic mistakes of sending forces in, with big footprints and so forth,” he explained. “So when you’re talking about dealing with terrorist networks, in failed states, or states that don’t have capacity, you can see that as actually being less intrusive, less dangerous, less problematic for the country involved.”

The World That World War II Built

By George Friedman

On June 4-7, it will be 75 years since the Battle of Midway, the battle in which the United States won the war in the Pacific and prevented the defeat of Britain and Russia. Guadalcanal, El Alamein and Stalingrad followed, all mostly fought in the second half of 1942. Over two years of horror would remain – neither Japan nor Germany was prepared to concede the point – but the war was won by the beginning of 1943.

These were extraordinary battles in an extraordinary war. I want to devote some time this year to considering the battles on their anniversaries and, I want to try to explain how these battles were an interlocking whole – really a single, rolling, global battle that collectively decided the war. By the end of the year, my goal is to show that a single global battle, beginning at Midway and ending at Stalingrad, defined the fate of humanity.

Systemic Wars

This is not simply antiquarian interest, although surely June 1942 to February 1943 must rank with Salamis, where the Greeks stopped the Persian surge into Europe; Teutoburg, where the Germans halted the Roman advance; or Lepanto, where Christian Europe halted Muslim Ottoman expansion. These battles defined the future of a civilization; June 1942 to February 1943 defined the future of the entire world.

Securing democracy in the digital age

Source Link 

Zoe Hawkins

Earlier this month, the campaign of French presidential election candidate Emanuel Macron fell victim to targeted cyber intrusion efforts by infamous Russian hacking collective that goes by a number of names including Pawn Storm, Strontium, Fancy Bear or APT28. Spear phishing email attacks against Macron’s En Marche! Party were followed by the public release of 9 gigabytes of reportedly confidential communications less than 48 hours before ballot boxes opened. While Macron was still able to secure the presidency on 7 May, his campaign said that the efforts had ‘put the vital interests of democracy in jeopardy’.

The French experience is just the most recent development in what appears to be a tide change in international cyber relations. The 2016 US presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was a wakeup call that highlighted democracy’s vulnerability to manipulation in today’s digital world. The hacking of multiple state voter registration databases, the strategic dumping of stolen email communications and the prominent position of social media all played a role in undermining public confidence and shaping public opinion. A US intelligence community assessment controversially asserted that, ‘Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election.’ Unsurprisingly, Putin has denied any involvement, but it seems the threat’s here to stay—countries such as Germany and the UK now concerned for the digital security of their upcoming elections.

The Numbers Behind Google's Online Empire

Source Link

-- this post authored by Felix Richter

Recently the opening keynote at Google I/O offered us a rare glimpse at some numbers behind the company's vast online offerings. Among other things, CEO Sundar Pichai revealed that more than two billion Android devices are actively used around the world and that six of Google's services have reached over 1 billion users.

The numbers, summed up in the chart below, along with recent product/service introductions (e.g. Google Home or Google Lens) illustrate the company’s ongoing efforts to move beyond search. As web usage continues to shift away from PCs and mobile browsers to apps and even voice-activated devices, people may not rely on Google search as much as they used to going forward. Considering that search advertising is still the company’s main source of revenue, it would be careless for Google not to cover all bases.

This chart sums up key figures about Google's online offerings.

Who Are The Shadow Brokers?: Noted Cyber Security Guru, Bruce Schneier Thinks He Knows; But, In His Article, He Does Overlook Another Reasonable Possibility — I Believe

Source Link

Noted cyber security researcher, guru, and author, Bruce Schneier posted an article on the May 23, 2017 edition of the online defense and national security website…DefenseOne.com, providing his thoughts about who the secretive ‘Shadow Brokers’ group behind the publishing and online selling of stolen NSA hacking tools.

Mr. Schneier begins his article by asking the question: “What is — and isn’t known about the mysterious hackers leaking [and attempting to profit from stolen] leaking NSA secrets [hacking tools]?”

“In 2013, a mysterious group of hackers, calling itself ‘the Shadow Brokers,’ stole a few disks of National Security Agency (NSA) secrets,” Mr. Schneier wrote. “Since last summer (2016), they’ve [the Shadow Brokers] they’ve been dumping these secrets on the Internet,” he adds. “They [the Shadow Brokers] have publicly embarrassed the NSA, and damaged its intelligence gathering capabilities, while at the same time, they have put sophisticated cyber weapons in the hands of anyone who wants them. They [the Shadow Brokers] have exposed major vulnerabilities in Cisco routers, Microsoft Windows, and Linux mail servers, forcing those companies and their customers to scramble. And, they gave the authors of the WannaCry ransomware the exploit they needed to infect hundreds of computers [devices, and networks] worldwide this month.”

After the largest cyberattack ever, here’s how to defend against the next & bigger ones

Source Link 

Marcus J. Ranum 

Summary: The breakout year for cybersecurity continues, with a massive global attack — more than 45,000 attacks in 99 countries by software linked to (built by?) the NSA (source). In this from the archives cybersecurity expert Marcus Ranum explains defense in this new world. Offense gets all the attention, but smart organisations win by defense. See today’s second post: Skip the hysteria. What you need to know about the big ransomware attack.

In the previous chapters of this series, I showed how cybercrime increases our awareness of computer security weaknesses and force us to constantly improve our defenses — accidentally improving our posture against cyberwar and increasing the likelihood that cyberspies will be uncovered. The logistical problems of keeping a cyberweapon fresh and secret are severe, when you consider that you’re fielding it at the targets’ systems — where it is susceptible to dissection and analysis when it’s discovered. This dynamic has already been seen to be at play with the Stuxnet family of attack tools: security responses rapidly co-evolve with attack tools.

Who Are the Shadow Brokers?

Source Link

 

In 2013, a mysterious group of hackers that calls itself the Shadow Brokers stole a few disks full of National Security Agency secrets. Since last summer, they’ve been dumping these secrets on the internet. They have publicly embarrassed the NSA and damaged its intelligence-gathering capabilities, while at the same time have put sophisticated cyberweapons in the hands of anyone who wants them. They have exposed major vulnerabilities in Cisco routers, Microsoft Windows, and Linux mail servers, forcing those companies and their customers to scramble. And they gave the authors of the WannaCry ransomware the exploit they needed to infect hundreds of thousands of computer worldwide this month.

After the WannaCry outbreak, the Shadow Brokers threatened to release more NSA secrets every month, giving cybercriminals and other governments worldwide even more exploits and hacking tools.

Who are these guys? And how did they steal this information? The short answer is: We don’t know. But we can make some educated guesses based on the material they’ve published.

The Shadow Brokers suddenly appeared last August, when they published a series of hacking tools and computer exploits—vulnerabilities in common software—from the NSA. The material was from autumn 2013, and seems to have been collected from an external NSA staging server, a machine that is owned, leased, or otherwise controlled by the U.S., but with no connection to the agency. NSA hackers find obscure corners of the internet to hide the tools they need as they go about their work, and it seems the Shadow Brokers successfully hacked one of those caches.

*** If 2.6 Billion People Go To War: India vs. China

Source Link

Kyle Mizokami

A hypothetical war between India and China would be one of the largest and most destructive conflicts in Asia. A war between the two powers would rock the Indo-Pacific region, cause thousands of casualties on both sides and take a significant toll on the global economy. Geography and demographics would play a unique role, limiting the war’s scope and ultimately the conditions of victory.

India and China border one another in two distinct locations: Aksai Chin in India’s north, and Arunachal Pradesh in the country’s northeast. China has made claims on both locations, which from China’s perspective belong to the far western province of Xinjiang and China-occupied Tibet. China invaded both Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh in 1962, with both sides fighting a monthlong war that resulted in minor Chinese gains on the ground.

Both countries’ “No First Use” policies regarding nuclear weapons make the outbreak of nuclear war very unlikely. Both countries have such large populations, each over 1.3 billion, that they are essentially unconquerable. Like all modern wars, a war between India and China would be fought over land, sea, and air; geography would limit the scope of the land conflict, while it would be the air conflict, fought with both aircraft and missiles, that would do the most damage to both countries. The trump card, however, may be India’s unique position to dominate a sea conflict, with dire consequences for the Chinese economy.

*** What Is the Shia-Sunni Divide?

By Ken Chitwood

In his address in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, May 21, while calling on Muslim leaders to lead the fight against terrorism, President Donald Trump identified Iran as a despotic state giving safe harbor and financing terror in the Middle East. As Iran is a Shia state and Saudi Arabia a Sunni-led country, some media outlets criticized Trump for taking sides in the Shia-Sunni sectarian divide.

As a scholar of Islam and a public educator, I often field questions about Sunnis, Shias and the sects of Islam. What exactly is the Shia-Sunni divide? And what is its history?

History of divide

Both Sunnis and Shias – drawing their faith and practice from the Qur’an and the life of the Prophet Muhammad – agree on most of the fundamentals of Islam. The differences are related more to historical events, ideological heritage and issues of leadership.

The first and central difference emerged after the death of Prophet Muhammad in A.D. 632. The issue was who would be the caliph – the “deputy of God” – in the absence of the prophet. While the majority sided with Abu Bakr, one of the prophet’s closest companions, a minority opted for his son-in-law and cousin – Ali. This group held that Ali was appointed by the prophet to be the political and spiritual leader of the fledgling Muslim community.

*** Russian Electronic Warfare in Ukraine: Between Real and Imaginable

By Sergey Sukhankin

The outbreak of war in the Donbas region (April 2014) turned Ukraine into one of the main targets of Russian information warfare, information-psychological operations, as well as cyberattacks and electronic warfare. Within the past three years, Ukraine has been subjected to no less than 7,000 cyberattacks. Ukrainian cyber expert Sergey Radkevych recently claimed that “Ukraine is in a state of cyber war with Russia” and that Russian cyber activities pose an existential threat to Ukraine’s national security (Sprotyv.info, May 5).

Furthermore, military clashes in Donbas have once again demonstrated that Russian military strategists and experts believe Electronic Warfare (EW) has become the backbone of “warfare of the future.” Western sources have claimed that from December 2015, Russia started to act much more decisively aiming to “achieve kinetic effects by delivering severe blows to Ukrainian critical infrastructure” (Cna.org, March 2017). Namely, these activities included damaging/destroying command-and-control networks through jamming radio communications, hampering the work of radar systems, and muting GPS signals. The main obstacle, however, was in the lack of concrete proof and factual data pertaining to tools, gadgets and other means used by the Russians while waging EW against Ukraine. But thanks to independent investigations conducted by Ukrainian activists and cyber specialists, it is now possible to speak about Russian involvement in EW against Ukraine as an undisputed fact. And the data presented by the Ukrainians illuminates many points of ambiguity regarding Russia’s use of EW in Donbas.

** Stratfor looks at signs the end times have begun for France’s Fifth Republic

Source Link 

Summary: All the western nations are experiencing similar stress from slow growth, cultural change, immigration — and political structures that no longer well fit their societies. We can learn much from how others cope. Now its France’s turn. The results from Sunday’s elections seem unlikely to improve or resolve their problems.

French voters will head to the polls on Sunday to choose their next president from two highly unorthodox candidates. Neither the centrist Emmanuel Macron nor the far-right Marine Le Pen belong to the country’s major parties, which failed to make it to the final run-off round. The unprecedented flop of France’s traditional rulers is just the latest in a long list of signs that the political system established by Charles de Gaulle nearly 60 years ago may have run its course. Whoever wins Sunday’s election will face the formidable challenge of trying to impose themselves on a system built around the traditional parties, of which neither front-runner is a member.

The French presidency is one of the most powerful democratically elected positions in the world. The person to claim it will become the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and will select its prime minister (with the approval of the National Assembly). The president also has the right to call a referendum and dissolve the lower house of Parliament at will.

** Time for the US to take a step back from Afghanistan

Source Link

BY JAMES D. DURSO

This month we learned the U.S. Marines are back in Helmand, Afghanistan’s most violent province and the center of opium poppy production, and their mission may expand. President Trump will soon decide if he should send 8,400 more troops there for the latest chapter in America’s longest war. Should he?

I think not. We gave Afghanistan out best effort: over 2,200 dead soldiers, over 20,000 wounded, and over $700 billion for everything from ammunition to medical care for veterans. We need to face the fact that it’s an endemically violent place and may never change and another “whole of government” effort may not make any difference.

And don’t take my word for it: the Talban has rejected peace talks with the Afghan government as surrendering to the enemy and against Islam.

The Afghans have seen off every visitor and invader, from Alexander the Great to the U.S. Central Command, so why spend another dollar there? For example, the regional transport network has avoided Afghanistan and the enthusiasts for a New Silk Road or One Belt, One Road haven’t absorbed that the world is avoiding Afghanistan not out of stupidity but out of hard-won experience.

Stratfor looks at Afghanistan and sees a Conflict With No Time Limit

Source Link 

Summary: Stratfor has been one of the few geopolitical research shops that has seen the madness of our war in Afghanistan. So their new report deserves attention. But it will be ignored. We prefer advice from “experts” who have been consistently been wrong. Phase two of the war begins soon. The body bags will arrive soon. Only our soldiers and their families will care.

“In Afghanistan, a Conflict With No Time Limit”

Forecast Highlights. 

The Pentagon’s move to deploy more troops to Afghanistan, should U.S. President Donald Trump approve it, would be aimed at empowering the Afghan National Security Forces to eventually inflict enough casualties on the Taliban to encourage them to negotiate. 

Until the factors that contribute to the conflict — including the Afghan forces’ weakness and Pakistan’s support for the Taliban — have been addressed, the prospects for ending the war will be dim. 

Lax border enforcement between Afghanistan and Pakistan will ensure that militants continue launching attacks into both countries from the border regions, further complicating efforts to end the war. 

Pakistan and the Saudi-led anti-terror coalition:Regional implications for the appointment of Gen. Raheel

Source Link

Naveed Ahmad

Since its formation in 2015, few operational details have been released about the Saudi-led anti-terror coalition—the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT). In the coming months, Riyadh plans to host a ministerial-level meeting of member states to sharpen the focus of IMAFT’s mission.(1) However, one critical development has already been made public: Pakistan’s former army chief of staff General Raheel Sharif has been appointed as IMAFT’s founding commander-in-chief. Gen. Raheel’s appointment coincides with planned deployment of 5,000 Pakistani soldiers to guard Saudi Arabia’s southern border. 

This paper explores the domestic and regional politics behind Gen. Raheel’s appointment and Pakistan’s participation in IMAFT.

Formation of a new military alliance 

In December 2015, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told media in Paris, “It is time that the Islamic world take a stand, and they have done that by creating a coalition to push back and confront the terrorists and those who promote their violent ideologies.”(2)

Co-designing the new Silk Road

BY Rajni Bakshi

Source Link 

The very mention of a “Silk Road” evokes images of teeming bazaars filled with not just the most beautiful silks but also metal objects, oils, spices, and innumerable manufactured goods that made the lives of our ancestors colourful and comfortable.

It was along this route that the many technological advances of ancient China travelled west and to India—paper, the wheelbarrow, gun powder, and critical innovations in tools which revolutionised agriculture.

China’s plan for a Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), also known as One Road One Belt, seeks to celebrate not just this material legacy but also the ‘Silk Road Spirit’ which, as the Chinese government’s vision document states, is about “peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and mutual benefit.” [1]

If these values are actually to be put into practice, two key issues urgently need attention.

Firstly, in what ways can the SREB foster a 21st century version of the socially-embedded bazaar, which was the nurturer of invention, innovation, and commerce in China and India for over two millennia till the mid-18th century?

America second? Yes, and China’s lead is only growing

Source Link 

By Graham Allison 

IN BOSTON, COMMENCEMENT season is a time to celebrate our world-leading universities, including engineering powerhouse MIT. But Bostonians might be shocked to learn that China’s Tsinghua University dethroned MIT as the top engineering university in the world in 2015, according to the closely-watched US News & World Report annual rankings. Tsinghua’s recent surge is not an isolated example. Everyone knows about China’s rise, but few have realized its magnitude or its consequences.

Among the top 10 schools of engineering, China and the United States now each have four. In STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), which provide the core competencies driving advances in the fastest-growing sectors of modern economies, China annually graduates four times as many students as the United States (1.3 million vs. 300,000). And in every year of the Obama administration, Chinese universities awarded more PhDs in STEM fields than American universities.

For Americans who grew up in a world in which USA meant “number one,” the idea that China could truly challenge the United States as a global educational leader seems impossible to imagine.

The Chinese-American Trade Balance

Source Link

-- this post authored by Dyfed Loesche

"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country, and that's what they're doing". 

A year on, Trump the President met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at a two day get-together in Florida a few weeks ago. Here's data from the U.S. Census Bureau on America's trade with China.

This chart shows the value of U.S. trade in goods with China from 2004 to 2016 (in billion U.S. dollars).

An Independent Iraqi Kurdistan? On the Prospects and Viability of a Future State

By Gallia Lindenstrauss and Adrien Cluzet for Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)

In February 2016, Masoud Barzani, President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, announced his desire to hold a referendum among Iraqi Kurds on the issue of independence. While he did not promise that the results would dictate an immediate declaration of independence, he did state that such a referendum will reveal the wish of the people, and will be realized “at the appropriate time and circumstances.”1 An informal referendum already took place in 2005, in which 99 percent of those who voted supported independence, and the idea for a formal referendum surfaced in 2014. A referendum is likely to result in a sweeping majority of Kurds favoring an independent state. As Mustafa and Aziz note, “The idea of having a sovereign Kurdistan is so popular that it is hard to find a single Kurd who would oppose it.”2 Hence the question arises, what will be Barzani’s steps following such a vote. Opposition elements inside the Kurdish Region have charged that Barzani will use the referendum to bolster his own legitimacy as president. Yet irrespective of his political ambitions, the Iraqi Kurds’ aspiration for independence is strong.

This article examines how far the Iraqi Kurds have moved toward gaining independence and establishing a Kurdish independent state in northern Iraq, and will assess the likelihood of Barzani declaring independence. Beyond the issue of the Iraqi Kurds’ demands for self-determination, these questions bear on the fear of Kurdish independence that has been a long time concern for countries with a significant Kurdish minority in the region; many have invested much effort in quelling such ambitions. With the weakening of Baghdad’s central authority and the prominent role of the Kurds in the struggle against the Islamic State, never has Iraqi Kurdish independence been discussed so much. As to political orientation, a Kurdish independent state in northern Iraq will likely be a pro-Western state with a favorable attitude toward Israel.3

Official Islam in the Arab World: The Contest for Religious Authority

Source Link

NATHAN BROWN

All Arab states have large, official Muslim religious establishments that give governments a major role in religious life. These establishments have developed differently, according to each state’s historical experience. Through them, the state has a say over religious education, mosques, and religious broadcasting—turning official religious institutions into potent policy tools. However, the complexity of the religious landscape means they are rarely mere regime mouthpieces and it can be difficult to steer them in a particular direction.

Religious Institutions in the Arab World

Official religious institutions in the Arab world, though generally loyal to their countries’ regimes, are vast bureaucracies whose size and complexity allow them some autonomy.

Arab regimes hold sway over official religious structures. However, their ability to bend these religious institutions to suit their own purposes is mixed.

The evolution of official religious establishments is rooted substantially in the process of modern state formation.

Official religious institutions play multiple roles. These include involvement in endowments and charity, advice and scriptural interpretation, education, prayer, family law, and broadcasting.

RUSSIAN ELECTRONIC WARFARE IN UKRAINE: BETWEEN REAL AND IMAGINABLE

Source Link

By: Sergey Sukhankin

The outbreak of war in the Donbas region (April 2014) turned Ukraine into one of the main targets of Russian information warfare, information-psychological operations, as well as cyberattacks and electronic warfare. Within the past three years, Ukraine has been subjected to no less than 7,000 cyberattacks. Ukrainian cyber expert Sergey Radkevych recently claimed that “Ukraine is in a state of cyber war with Russia” and that Russian cyber activities pose an existential threat to Ukraine’s national security (Sprotyv.info, May 5).

Furthermore, military clashes in Donbas have once again demonstrated that Russian military strategists and experts believe Electronic Warfare (EW) has become the backbone of “warfare of the future.” Western sources have claimed that from December 2015, Russia started to act much more decisively aiming to “achieve kinetic effects by delivering severe blows to Ukrainian critical infrastructure” (Cna.org, March 2017). Namely, these activities included damaging/destroying command-and-control networks through jamming radio communications, hampering the work of radar systems, and muting GPS signals. The main obstacle, however, was in the lack of concrete proof and factual data pertaining to tools, gadgets and other means used by the Russians while waging EW against Ukraine. But thanks to independent investigations conducted by Ukrainian activists and cyber specialists, it is now possible to speak about Russian involvement in EW against Ukraine as an undisputed fact. And the data presented by the Ukrainians illuminates many points of ambiguity regarding Russia’s use of EW in Donbas.

Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

Source Link

PDF file 2.9 MB 

This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia's approach, draws inferences from Moscow's intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.

These two distinct campaigns overlap somewhat but offer different lessons for participants and observers. The report finds that Russia's operation to annex Crimea represented a decisive and competent use of military force in pursuit of political ends. Russia's operations in Crimea benefited from highly favorable circumstances — political, historical, geographical, and military — that limit their generalizability. Analysis of the operation underscores that there are many remaining unknowns about Russia's military capabilities, especially in the aftermath of its military reforms and modernization program. The report also finds that the campaign in Eastern Ukraine was an ineffectually implemented — and perhaps ill-conceived — effort to achieve political fragmentation of Ukraine via federalization and retain Russian influence. Russia achieved its primary objectives but at a much higher cost than desired and through a fitful cycle of adaptation.

This study thus questions the desirability for Moscow to replicate a course of events similar to the campaign in Eastern Ukraine. Conversely, the operation to annex Crimea was a highly successful employment of select elements within Russia's armed forces, making it an attractive use of military power, but the structural and operation factors contributing to its success raise doubts whether it can be repeated elsewhere.

A European Net Assessment of the People’s Liberation Army (Navy)

Source Link

Peter Roberts

The event took place at the Institute’s Whitehall building with more than 100 attendees from academia, industry, the military and various parliamentarians. Speakers from across Europe, Asia and the US examined the growth of capability and the ambition of China through the prisms of international relations, global politics and economics, and military balance.

The conference found that there were contradictions between China’s foreign policy statements and financial investment in its naval forces. Beijing’s statements about peaceful coexistence, mutually beneficial growth and belief in the global system seem at odds with its current approach towards the rule of law, intellectual property rights, human rights and ecological damage. It is little wonder, therefore, that many are concerned about the future direction of Chinese foreign and security policy, given that Beijing is starting to amass the systems and tools necessary to challenge the global order from a military perspective. 

Given the evidence outlined at the conference, delegates were left with the question of what Europe might do, or be expected to do, in response.

 Download the report (PDF)

James Mattis, a Warrior in Washington

Jacquelyn Martin

The former Marine Corps general spent four decades on the front lines. How will he lead the Department of Defense?

Read Full Article »

nvestigators face challenges as Libya becomes a key focus of bombing probe

Source Link

By Sudarsan Raghavan

TRIPOLI, Libya — As British investigators seek clues to potential accomplices and motives of Salman Abedi, the bomber who killed at least 22 at a Manchester pop concert, they are also focusing increasingly on Libya — and the Islamic State’s presence here. 

Authorities say Abedi, a British citizen of Libyan origin, spent four weeks here, returning to Manchester days before Monday night’s attack, which was claimed by the Islamic State. His brother, Hashem Abedi, was arrested in the capital, Tripoli, on Tuesday night for suspected ties to the group, and authorities say he was planning an attack on this Mediterranean city. 

What investigators want answered is whether Salman Abedi’s network of co-plotters extended all the way to Libya. Did he receive training or assistance in building the bomb or other preparations for the assault from Islamic State cells or operatives in Libya? 

But pursuing leads in this war-riven North African nation is rife with obstacles. A constellation of rival militias control different regions, even enclaves within the capital. There are three competing governments; the one recognized by Western powers and the United Nations wields no influence in the east. Even government bodies, including those dealing with law enforcement, are plagued by competing factions and lack of structure and cohesiveness. 

U.S. special operations forces face growing demands and increased risks

Source Link 

W.J. Hennigan

Touching down before dawn, Somali “Lightning” commandos climbed out of U.S. military helicopters and carefully advanced in the dark toward a ramshackle compound tucked into muddy farmland dotted by banana trees.

U.S. surveillance had monitored the site for days after an intelligence tip signaled the location of Moalin Osman Abdi Badil, the suspected leader of a Shabab terrorist cell linked to plots against U.S. forces and their allies in Somalia.

A team of Navy SEALs joined the Somali soldiers as they slipped toward the low-slung buildings, hoping to surprise the militants. But guards heard or spotted the raiders and a fierce firefight lighted up the night.

The Pentagon says the militants killed a Navy SEAL, Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator Kyle Milliken, 38; and wounded two other SEALs in the May 5 attack near Barii, about 40 miles west of the capital, Mogadishu.

The incident not only marked the first U.S. combat death in Somalia since the infamous Blackhawk Down battle in 1993; it also underscored the risks as President Trump, like President Obama before him, increasingly relies on the Pentagon’s Special Operations Command to hunt militants around the globe.

Why We Are Surprised by Surprises

Source Link

By Joshua Teicher

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: There is a structured, persistent failure in intelligence research that scholars have either not identified or underestimate: the assessment of long-term processes that develop separately from “objective” quantitative data. This inattention can result in the undervaluation of real dangers at our door. In order to establish a more reliable picture of reality, questions should be raised that challenge the consensus. More than one forecast and predicted future should be presented by synthesizing quantitative facts together with qualitative research. Works of literature, philosophy, and poetry can also serve as seismographs to tremors in the fabric of life.

Researchers and decision-makers are regularly taken by surprise by the collapse of regimes and by military moves with long-term geopolitical and traumatic consequences. They are hit “out of the blue” and awakened from their status quo illusions. This trend is in fact likely to accelerate during times of increasing uncertainty, when there is a greater likelihood of potential danger.

Adhering to the illusion of the status quo can also result in a failure of prioritization. Decision-makers and intelligence organizations are aware of potential threats, but do not surmise that they will require speedy responses to avert danger to vital interests. One of the reasons for this is the tendency to apply thinking modes that explained past events to the new reality, missing the unique essence of the later event. (Egypt’s military entry into the Sinai in May 1967, for example, was first conceived as a repeat of its entry into the Sinai in 1960 as part of the Rotem events, which ended uneventfully.)

For the 21st Century Battlefield, Army Trains 'Cyber Warriors'

Source Link

By STEVE WALSH

In the remote Southern California desert, the U.S. Army is testing whether it can put some its most advanced cyber tools into the hands of commanders in the field.

Those tools use computer technology to disrupt communication networks, navigational systems, and other devices. And they're becoming an increasingly important part of modern warfare, especially among sophisticated military operations like those in Russia and China.

"The next place we go to fight, we don't know where that's going to be," said Commanding Gen. Jeff Broadwater, who oversees the Army's National Training Center at Fort Irwin, Cal.

Until 2013, the facility's main mission was preparing troops to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now, it's putting a greater emphasis on readying soldiers for potential enemies that are more technologically advanced.

"The enemy that we face will have developed some lessons as we've been executing in Iraq and Afghanistan," Broadwater said. 

Since last year, the Army Cyber Command has been sending small teams to work with brigades as they train at Fort Irwin and a few other locations. The pilot project started in August and is scheduled to wrap up in the next few week.

DIA Director Testifies on Top Five Global Military Threats

Source Link

By Cheryl

WASHINGTON, May 23, 2017 — North Korea, Russia, China, Iran and extremist organizations are the top five military threats facing the nation, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency said here this morning.

Airmen secure a load of cargo in a C-130H Hercules at Qayyarah Airfield West, Iraq, Feb. 3, 2017. Airmen assigned to the 737th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron delivered 30,000 pounds of cargo to aid in the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jordan Castelan

Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent R. Stewart testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee to discuss worldwide threats. Also testifying today was Daniel R. Coats, director of National Intelligence.

Expanding on the nature of the threats, Stewart said they include a nuclear-capable and increasingly provocative North Korea, a resurgent Russia, a modernizing China, an ambitious regional power in Iran and violent extremist organizations.

Meet the Nerds Coding Their Way Through the Afghanistan War

Source Link 

Erin Delaney assumed it was a drill. She peeked down the hallway to see how other people were responding. Then she hit the deck. It was not a drill. The NATO base in Kabul where Delaney had been working for weeks was being attacked. 

Delaney, 24, had never had any military training. She grew up in San Diego, traveled up the coast for college at UC Berkeley, and spent the next two years nestled in the safe, Tesla-filled San Francisco bubble, working in the compliance department at Dropbox. Now, with her nose to the ground, she was getting a taste—however brief—of life in a war zone. 

She flipped over the visitor’s badge she’d received when she first arrived at the base. In case of attack, it said, she should stay on the ground for two minutes. Assuming nothing dire happened, she was to shelter in place until the shelling stopped. So, for about an hour, that’s what she did. “Then when things were normal, we went back to work,” Delaney says with a shrug. “And that was that.” 

The petite brunette doesn’t like to play up the drama of her time in Afghanistan. She spent only a matter of weeks on the base, and she’s wary of comparing her brush with danger to the risks that soldiers in Afghanistan face every day. Unlike them, she hadn’t traveled to Kabul to track terrorists or spend time in the countryside rebuilding the bullet-riddled nation. She’d come on a more mundane mission: to make the tech tools that NATO uses in Afghanistan suck a little less.

The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence

Keir A. Lieber 

Source Link 

For decades, nuclear deterrence has depended on the impossibility of a first strike destroying a country’s nuclear arsenal. Technological advances, however, are undermining states’ abilities to hide and protect their nuclear arsenals. These developments help explain why nuclear-armed states have continued to engage in security competition: nuclear deterrence is neither automatic nor permanent. Thus, the United States should enhance its counterforce capabilities and avoid reducing its nuclear arsenal. 

Downloads 

Full text of "The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence"

Why do we need 'accidental heroes' to deal with global cyber-attacks?

Source Link

Evgeny Morozov

To appreciate the perversity of our reliance on US technology giants, you just need to grapple with the fact that one of the likely winners in the global “cyber-outage” – caused by the series of crippling cyber-attacks that hit public and private institutions worldwide a week ago – might be the very company whose software was compromised – Microsoft.

The WannaCry ransomware used in the attack wreaked havoc on organisations including FedEx and Telefónica, as well as the NHS, where operations were cancelled, x-rays, test results and patient records became unavailable and phones did not work. In the end the global spread of the attack was halted by an “accidental hero”, a 22-year-old IT security blogger from Ilfracombe, Devon. Marcus Hutchins found and inadvertently activated a “kill switch” in the malware by registering a specific domain name hidden within the program.

But even before the recent WannaCry ransomware attacks, Microsoft – always seeking to deflate any responsibility for the flaws in its products – had been advocating the establishment of the digital equivalent of Geneva conventions that would protect civilians from cyber-attacks launched by nation states. At the same time, such agreements would allocate responsibility to big tech companies that would help to ensure safety online.

The cyber-war(s) being fought right under our noses

Source Link

Bert Olivier 

TIME magazine invariably has very clever, multi-faceted covers, the latest one being no exception. It shows the White House – the American president’s residence and workplace, all in one – being slowly, but surely, devoured by Saint Basil’s Cathedral, with its red brick walls and colourful onion domes, which stands on the Red Square and is part of Russia’s Kremlin, or centre of political power. 

Metonymically speaking, it represents the Kremlin, infiltrating and transmogrifying the seat of one of the centres of American political power - the presidency. To anyone familiar with the appearance of these two buildings and what they represent, it is immediately apparent what this clever TIME cover is saying: Russia is taking over US political power in a vampire-like fashion, where the life-blood of the latter is being sucked out by the former, modifying its substance in the process.

OK, but what information is this clever picture based on? If you haven’t read it in TIME, you may have picked it up from other news sites on the internet, but wherever you have gleaned it from, you would know that it alludes not only to the now infamous, alleged Russian hacking into Hillary Clinton’s (and generally the Democratic Party’s) e-mails in the course of last year’s presidential campaign, although this is part of it insofar as the intention of such hacking – so the claim goes – was to influence the outcome of the election in Donald Trump’s favour.