Newly confirmed Army Lt. Gen. (P) Paul Nakasone will formally take the reins at the National Security Agency and Cyber Command following a ceremony May 4. In that role, Nakasone will head the 10th, and newest, combatant command. But as the organization takes on greater responsibilities, Nakasone will receive broad authorities as the global coordinator for cyber operations in the Department of Defense and as the joint force trainer for cyber. Here are three key decisions Nakasone will face and that will shape Cyber Command in the long term.10 May 2018
Three decisions Cyber Command’s new leader will have to make
Newly confirmed Army Lt. Gen. (P) Paul Nakasone will formally take the reins at the National Security Agency and Cyber Command following a ceremony May 4. In that role, Nakasone will head the 10th, and newest, combatant command. But as the organization takes on greater responsibilities, Nakasone will receive broad authorities as the global coordinator for cyber operations in the Department of Defense and as the joint force trainer for cyber. Here are three key decisions Nakasone will face and that will shape Cyber Command in the long term.Why can’t we read anymore?
The reasons for that low number are, I guess, the same as your reasons for reading fewer books than you think you should have read last year: I’ve been finding it harder and harder to concentrate on words, sentences, paragraphs. Let alone chapters. Chapters often have page after page of paragraphs. It just seems such an awful lot of words to concentrate on, on their own, without something else happening. And once you’ve finished one chapter, you have to get through another one. And usually a whole bunch more, before you can say finished, and get to the next. The next book. The next thing. The next possibility. Next next next.
The Marines now depend on 3D printing for parts in winter warfare
by Christopher Woody
The Marine Corps has, in recent months, started to shift its focus away from operations in the Middle East and begun to emphasize preparing to operate in extreme cold— like that found in northern Europe and northeast Asia. US forces "haven't been in the cold-weather business for a while," Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller said in January 2018. "Some of the risks and threats there, there is a possibility we are going to be there." That reorientation has placed new demands on Marines operating at northern latitudes in Europe and North America — and put new strains on their equipment. The Corps has issued requests for information on a new cap and gloves for intense cold, and it plans to spend nearly $13 million on 2,648 sets of NATO's ski system for scout snipers, reconnaissance Marines, and some infantrymen.Are We Really Ready for a Cyberattack?
Last month, the U.S. and U.K. governments released a joint “Technical Alert” on the dangers of “Russian state-sponsored cyber actors.” While timely and targeted, this alert shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. We’ve witnessed enough cyberattacks in recent years to understand that the digital domain is humanity’s new battlefield. And while the West is ramping up its defenses, its efforts aren’t guided by an overall doctrine. That’s right: There is no master plan. What we need now, before a more serious cyberattack, is a doctrine along the lines of our National Response Framework. This document is, in its own words, “a guide to how the nation responds to all types of disasters and emergencies.” Resources, roles, responsibilities, you name it. From the Oval Office down to local governments. It even includes Native American Tribal Councils. No, seriously, look it up — because you can. This isn’t a secret, eyes-only doomsday plan. The National Response Framework is open to the public because it needs to be. There can’t be any room for misinterpretation or confusion.Here’s The Marine Corps’ New Plan To Shake Up Rifle Squads
Editor’s Note: This article by Hope Hodge Seck originally appeared on Military.com, the premier source of information for the military and veteran community. The Marine Corps is capping off 18 months of overhauling the way infantry units are trained and equipped by shaking up the structure of the rifle squad. In an address to an audience of Marines at a Marine Corps Association awards dinner near Washington, D.C., on Thursday night, Commandant Gen. Robert Neller said future squads will have 12 Marines, down from the current 13. But while the squads are losing a body, they will gain capability, with two new leadership positions, he said. he new squad will have three fire teams of three Marines each, an adjustment from the standard four-Marine fire teams of today, Neller said.9 May 2018
Sino-Nepali Relations: Scaling New Heights
By: Sudha Ramachandran
In his very first interview after taking office in February 2018, new Nepali Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli said his government would seek to revive a US$2.5 billion Sino-Nepali hydropower project on the Budhi Gandaki River (South China Morning Post, February 19). The project’s fate has become tied with the country’s rapid turnover of governing coalitions, as well as a bellwether for the struggle for supremacy between pro-PRC and pro-Indian factions in Nepali politics. In May 2017, a government led by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) (CPN-MC)—now a junior partner in the governing coalition led by Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) (CPN-UML)—awarded the contract for the 1,200 MW hydropower project to the China Gezhouba Group, to be built as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
India’s struggle for the soul of the Indo-Pacific
BY Samir Saran
In 2017, the “Indo-Pacific” emerged as a defining geopolitical construct tying the future of states from East Africa to East Asia together with big powers, such as the US, China, India, and Japan.While Beijing has grabbed headlines in its quest to dominate the eastern part of this integrated system in the South China Sea, in the western Indian Ocean it has managed to escape the constraints of geography, building influence and infrastructure that could lead to political, ethical, and ideological control over the Asian littorals. In the western Indian Ocean, a battle for the soul of the Indo-Pacific is set to play out between China and the liberal order hitherto led by the US, and increasingly represented by India. While New Delhi and Beijing have initiated a tentative rapprochement, their interests do not align.Preparing for India’s next telecom revolution
India has had delayed roll-outs of 3G and 4G mobile technologies in the past. But the Narendra Modi government’s promise of Digital India requires coordinating India’s launch of 5G with its global arrival. There is a significant hurdle, however: The telecom industry’s stressed finances are likely to play spoilsport. Unlike 3G and 4G, which largely offered improvements in data transfer speeds on smartphones, 5G will allow a universe of connected devices to interact with each other. The key feature is dramatically reduced latency of less than 1 millisecond (ms) from the present 50ms, along with up to 10 gigabytes per second speed and higher bandwidth. This will enable applications that could not have been possible with longer response times. For example, remote surgery or telepresence would not work if it took time to relay the remote user’s response over the network. A more vivid example would be that of driverless cars, which should be able to “talk” to each other seamlessly across blind turns to prevent accidents.Modi-Xi throw Afghanistan a railway life line, but is it ready?
Pakistan’s Secret War Machine
Javid Ahmad
Conventional Deterrence in the Asia-Pacific Region
By Ankit Panda
The Diplomat‘s Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) and Franz-Stefan Gady (@hoanssolo) discuss conventional deterrence and conventional military forces in the Asia-Pacific. Click the arrow to the right to listen. If you’re an iOS or Mac user, you can also subscribe to The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast on iTunes here. If you use Android, you can subscribe on TuneIn or on Google Play Music. If you like the podcast and have suggestions for content, please leave a review and rating on iTunes and TuneIn.Hegemonic Designs in the Middle East Clash
Western media are preoccupied by limited airstrikes from the United States, Britain and France in the Damascus area, in response to a chemical attack, as well as Russia’s “hybrid warfare” strategy against the West. Amidst many distractions, Vladimir Putin’s own fixation with his country’s emergence as a major player in the Middle East and its implications for regional stability do not receive ample attention. Russia is striving to increase its strategic visibility and sphere of influence in the Middle East, and US President Donald Trump, by pursuing his transactional foreign policy, is unwittingly presiding over the demise of traditional US strategic dominance in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world.Space: The next frontier for US-China rivalry
Simon Roughneen
SINGAPORE -- With the U.S. government pledging to resume manned missions to the Moon, and eventually send a mission to Mars, Cold War-style competition over space exploration is re-emerging -- between China and the U.S. this time. China hopes to make its first manned lunar landing within 15 years, around six decades after the last American walked on the moon in 1972. But China is not as far behind as those dates suggest. It hopes to make the first-ever landing on the dark side of the Moon by the end of 2018. This feat eluded the U.S. and Soviet Union during the heyday of their Space Race from the late 1950s to the mid-1970s.
Lasers and Missiles Heighten U.S.-China Military Tensions
By Steven Lee Myers
BEIJING — Tensions between the United States and China flared on two military fronts as Washington accused the Chinese of harassing American pilots flying over the African nation of Djibouti and warned of consequences to the deployment of missiles on artificial islands China has built in disputed waters in the South China Sea.The Pentagon’s spokeswoman, Dana W. White, said Thursday that personnel at China’s military base in Djibouti have in recent weeks been aiming powerful lasers at American aircraft that also operate in or near the country, which is where the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden meet. She did not detail the number of incidents but said the lasers — which can be used to target aircraft — caused minor eye injuries to two American pilots.Chinese Lasers Injure U.S. C-130 Pilots, Washington Responds Through Diplomatic Channels
THE PENTAGON: The United States is accusing the China of using high-powered military lasers to target U.S. military aircraft flying in and out of Djibouti, the tiny Horn of Africa nation that houses military bases from both countries. One recent incident injured two U.S. airmen piloting a C-130 landing at the U.S. base there, said Maj. Sheryll Klinkel, a Pentagon spokesperson. The injuries were minor, she said, but she described the laser as “military grade,” without going into further detail. Washington has issued a démarche, or a formal complaint, over the laser attacks, which have numbered somewhere between two and ten over the past several weeks. The Federal Aviation Administration issued a Notice to Airmen on May 2 advising pilots about “unauthorized laser activity” and “multiple lazing events involving high power laser” near the Chinese military installation in Djibouti. It was the second warning from the FAA in as many weeks.WHAT BEIJING IS BUILDING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
Since China began its extensive land reclamation program in the South China Sea in 2013, Beijing has focused on improving its presence and infrastructure at seven locations in the Spratly Island chain: Cuarteron Reef, Fiery Cross, Gaven, Hughes, Johnson, Mischief and Subi reefs. Of the seven locations, the Fiery Cross, Mischief and Subi reefs received particular attention in the form of large-scale airfields built there. Over time, China has also added harbors, barracks, radar and other sensors. This is in addition to communications equipment, storage bunkers and general infrastructure installed across all seven islands. Stratfor partners at AllSource Analysis have provided imagery that confirms mobile electronic warfare (EW) equipment was recently deployed to Mischief Reef.
Why a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Won't Be Easy
As Trump mulls the Iran deal’s fate, a three-ring circus ensues
Suzanne Maloney
At this point, only two things are clear: President Donald Trump is reveling in his role of ringmaster, entertaining appeals from U.S. allies and holding the world in suspense while he ostensibly deliberates over a choice with massive national security and economic implications. As he has routinely remindedvisiting dignitaries and the listening press corps, this momentous decision will be his and his alone. And the chaotic state of play suggests that the upcoming deadline for sustaining U.S. compliance with the agreement may serve as a beginning, rather than an end—the opening of a new phase of uncertainty and possibly even diplomacy. Trump will issue his verdict on the Iran deal next week, but the decision will likely usher in an even more intense ambiguity surrounding the status of the nuclear agreement, the state of the trans-Atlantic relationship, the legality of doing business with Iran, and the prospects for military conflict involving Tehran and its proxies across the Middle East.
How Wall Street Enabled the Fracking 'Revolution' That's Losing Billions By Justin Mikulka • Friday, May 4, 2018 - 10:34
The U.S. shale oil industry hailed as a “revolution” has burned through a quarter trillion dollars more than it has brought in over the last decade. It has been a money-losing endeavor of epic proportions. In September 2016, the financial ratings service Moody’s released a report on U.S. oil companies, many of which were hurting from the massive drop in oil prices. Moody's found that “the financial toll from the oil bust can only be described as catastrophic,” particularly for small companies that took on huge debt to finance fracking shale formations when oil prices were high.And even though shale companies still aren't turning a profit, Wall Street continues to lend the industry more money while touting these companies as good investments. Why would investors do that?Improving upon Trump’s high-risk, low-yield China trade policy
Ryan Hass
Why does it matter if the United States and China clash over trade issues, and what is a better path forward? Ryan Hass explores these and other issues, in a piece originally published by China-U.S. Focus. The foundations of the United States-China relationship are as brittle as they have been in decades. A confluence of factors from both sides of the Pacific have pushed the relationship to its present precarious point. China’s mercantilist economic policies bear a significant brunt of the blame, along with China’s growing military assertiveness, internal suppression of dissent, non-responsiveness to legitimate U.S. concerns on trade, efforts to influence American political discourse, and injection of ideological tension into bilateral relations. Rather than pursuing a serious strategy to tackle specific problems, though, the Trump administration has embraced an undisciplined instinct for confrontation. Such an approach will not generate greater Chinese responsiveness to U.S. concerns, but it could do harm to American businesses and workers.
Will Arctic Oil Ever Make It To Market?
No analysis of the potential impact of the Arctic on geopolitics would be complete without discussing the region’s natural resources. With the indisputable evidence that Arctic glaciers are melting at a record pace, it’s clear new opportunities to tap these resources are opening up. A 2008 U.S. Geological Survey report on the state of untapped natural resources in the Arctic is enough to make every oil company CEO salivate in anticipation of huge new revenue streams. That report suggests that the region holds about 10% of the world’s existing conventional resources – 240 billion proven barrels of oil and oil equivalent natural gas. What’s more, it estimates the Arctic could hold 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil, 17 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.
Washington Should Help Europe Achieve ‘Strategic Autonomy’, Not Fight It
According to Ronja Kempin and Barbara Kunz, US policymakers have mixed feelings about the EU’s 2016 Global Strategy, to say the least. The strategy outlines the ambition of strategic autonomy for the EU, and some US officials fear this could be detrimental to the transatlantic alliance. However, our authors explain that Washington should not worry: strategic autonomy has nothing to do with Europe turning away from the US. Indeed, they contend that the US should support this goal as doing so could help the Global Debt: The Next Great Financial Crisis?
We Need a NATO for Infowar
BY ELISABETH BRAW
It was Sweden that manufactured the nerve gas that nearly killed Russian double-agent Sergey Skripal in Salisbury in March. Or the Czechs. Or in fact the UK itself. Russian media deliver a dizzying range of exaggerations and falsehoods about our countries, while we usually opt for the high road of near-silence. But truth won’t prevail on its own. We need a robust defense not just of our borders but of our free and open societies: in other words, a Communications NATO for information warfare. Following last month’s chemical attack in Syria, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denounced reports of it as fabrications. A Russian military spokesman insisted that the UK had been involved, an allegation that Britain’s UN ambassador Karen Pierce dismissed as a “grotesque, blatant lie” and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson called “demented.”‘Deny, distract and blame’: how Russia fights its propaganda and disinformation war on Twitter and Russian news networks
Luke Harding
The Twitter account of the Russian embassy in London has been busy over the past two months, offering numerous explanations for the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury. All hint at a dark and sprawling British conspiracy. Since the Skripals were found stricken on a park bench, Downing Street has stuck to one version of events. Theresa May says it is “highly likely” Moscow carried out the attack using a Soviet-made nerve agent. Only the Kremlin had the motive to kill its former officer, she argues. The embassy, and its boss, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, have offered alternative scenarios. Lavrov has said a Swiss laboratory used to test the poison identified another toxin called BZ. Russia did not have it. The US, UK and Nato did, he said.
It's time to ditch our obsession with trade deficits. Here's why
The notion that trade surpluses are a measure of a country’s economic prowess dates back centuries. In 16th-century Europe, “mercantilists” from England to Venice sought to accumulate gold by promoting exports and discouraging imports. Their intellectual heirs today think trade surpluses boost national welfare, employment and economic growth, while deficits do the opposite. The preoccupation with surpluses is based on dubious arithmetic: since one country’s exports are another’s imports, it is impossible for all countries to be net exporters. It also overlooks a more fundamental point about trade. The main benefit from trade is imports – foreigners sending the fruits of their labour for us to enjoy, allowing us to focus on what we do best. Working to produce exports is the price we pay to enjoy these benefits.Industrial Revolutions Are Political Wrecking Balls
We may never stop arguing about which historic currents swept President Trump into the White House. Klaus Schwab, chairman of the World Economic Forum, is unlikely to have had Trump in mind when he described the fourth industrial revolution in Davos in January 2016: We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. Compared with previous industrial revolutions, Schwab continued,A Criminal Gang Used a Drone Swarm To Obstruct an FBI Hostage Raid
BY PATRICK TUCKER
DENVER, Colorado — Last winter, on the outskirts of a large U.S.city, an FBI hostage rescue team set up an elevated observation post to assess an unfolding situation. Soon they heard the buzz of small drones — and then the tiny aircraft were all around them, swooping past in a series of “high-speed low passes at the agents in the observation post to flush them,” the head of the agency’s operational technology law unit told attendees of the AUVSIXponential conference here. Result: “We were then blind,” said Joe Mazel, meaning the group lost situational awareness of the target. “It definitely presented some challenges.”Marines Reorganize Infantry For High-Tech War: Fewer Riflemen, More Drones
By SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR.
“Everything that Marine wears -- from their boots to their socks to their utilities to their helmet -- is all going to be changed," the Commandant said. "We’ve got money now to do that, and so we’ve got to make it happen now. We’ve got to make it happen now, because I’m not going to make the assumption that that money’s going to be there.” To conduct such “distributed operations,” Commandant Robert Neller said last night, the Marines are adding technical experts — in drones, intelligence, supply, and other specialties — to small units so they can operate more independently of higher headquarters. The tradeoff comes in old-fashioned firepower: Infantry squads will shrink from 13 Marines to 12, and infantry battalions will have fewer heavy-duty support weapons such as 81 mm mortars and TOW anti-tank missile launchers.The Redacted Testimony That Fully Explains Why General MacArthur Was Fired
8 May 2018
Economist Paul Krugman Warned India's Growth Model Could Cause Problems. Was He Right?
Suparna Dutt D'Cunha
India and China: Is this too just rivalry as usual?
Mohan Guruswamy
The inexorable growth of China’s GDP having long surpassed Japan’s and is now taking aim at that of the USA ($14 trillion), whose economy is at present more than two and a half times bigger than that of China. It took China a little less than a decade to make a similar leap to overtake Japan. But then Japan has hardly been growing from 1995 and its GDP has been roller coasting between $4-5 trillion. If the growth of economies were a horserace, this would be akin to passing a fast starter who has slowed down to a trot. Overtaking the USA will still take some years and some effort as that country has begun posting some smart growth after the gargantuan Obama stimulus package pump primed, not just the US economy but also the world's economy, and particularly of countries like China which have a symbiotic economic relationship with it. Despite this Chinese GDP is expected to surpass that of the US well before 2030 when it will about $20 trillion.
The inexorable growth of China’s GDP having long surpassed Japan’s and is now taking aim at that of the USA ($14 trillion), whose economy is at present more than two and a half times bigger than that of China. It took China a little less than a decade to make a similar leap to overtake Japan. But then Japan has hardly been growing from 1995 and its GDP has been roller coasting between $4-5 trillion. If the growth of economies were a horserace, this would be akin to passing a fast starter who has slowed down to a trot. Overtaking the USA will still take some years and some effort as that country has begun posting some smart growth after the gargantuan Obama stimulus package pump primed, not just the US economy but also the world's economy, and particularly of countries like China which have a symbiotic economic relationship with it. Despite this Chinese GDP is expected to surpass that of the US well before 2030 when it will about $20 trillion.
The Afghan War Isn’t Being Won, Says New Pentagon Audit
BY R. JEFFREY SMITH
A U.S. Army helicopter flies from Camp Shorab to Camp Bost on Sept. 11, 2017 in Helmand Province, Afghanistan. Just one day after a double suicide bombing in Kabul killed at least 31 people and wounded scores more, a U.S. military watchdog released a report with a set of dismal statistics on the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.The report conflicts with the optimism projected by senior military officials, including U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis. “We do look toward a victory in Afghanistan,” Mattis said shortly before visiting the country in March, echoing the phraseology of his predecessors. He said this meant a political reconciliation between its insurgents and leaders, and Afghan security forces strong enough to defend the government by themselves.“PEACE IN PIECES” IN AFGHANISTAN
April 27, 2018 marked the 40th anniversary of the start of war in Afghanistan. This coming October, the United States will mark 17 years on the ground there. It is past time for this conflict to end and even the Taliban seems to be coming around to that sad conclusion. The Taliban made a peace offer to the United States, President Ghani countered with an open-ended offer, local Taliban leaders have reached out to their opposite numbers on the ground, and most importantly, there have been spontaneous peace demonstrations in nearly half of Afghanistan’s provinces. The people, as usual, are out in front of their leaders.
Pakistan cosies up to Russia, but Moscow doesn’t seem to want to take sides
ISLAMABAD ― Pakistan and Russia have pledged to improve defense ties, but Moscow appears to be trying to balance its South Asia relations rather than abandon its traditional strategic partner India. The latest pledge came as Pakistan’s national security adviser, Nasser Khan Janjua, for the first time led a ministerial-level delegation comprising the heads of the various defense, national security and space ministries to Russia where they met their counterparts. According to a Russian news release, “issues of bilateral military cooperation in information security and countering international terrorism were studied.”
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