Indian Strategic Studies

14 July 2024

AI's Energy Demands Are Out of Control. Welcome to the Internet's Hyper-Consumption Era

REECE ROGERS

RIGHT NOW, GENERATIVE artificial intelligence is impossible to ignore online. An AI-generated summary may randomly appear at the top of the results whenever you do a Google search. Or you might be prompted to try Meta’s AI tool while browsing Facebook. And that ever-present sparkle emoji continues to haunt my dreams.

This rush to add AI to as many online interactions as possible can be traced back to OpenAI’s boundary-pushing release of ChatGPT late in 2022. Silicon Valley soon became obsessed with generative AI, and nearly two years later, AI tools powered by large language models permeate the online user experience.

One unfortunate side effect of this proliferation is that the computing processes required to run generative AI systems are much more resource intensive. This has led to the arrival of the internet’s hyper-consumption era, a period defined by the spread of a new kind of computing that demands excessive amounts of electricity and water to build as well as operate.

“In the back end, these algorithms that need to be running for any generative AI model are fundamentally very, very different from the traditional kind of Google Search or email,” says Sajjad Moazeni, a computer engineering researcher at the University of Washington. “For basic services, those were very light in terms of the amount of data that needed to go back and forth between the processors.” In comparison, Moazeni estimates generative AI applications are around 100 to 1,000 times more computationally intensive.

Meet the AI-powered robots that Big Tech thinks can solve a global labor shortage

Kate Rooney

AI-powered robots are popping up across Silicon Valley. If some industry experts are right, they could help solve a global labor shortage.

Companies like Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia have plowed billions of dollars into what are known as “humanoid” robots. These machines typically stand on two legs, and are designed to perform tasks meant for people.

For now, they’re being deployed in warehouses. But proponents say the possibilities extend well beyond fulfillment centers. These bots could eventually work alongside people, in homes and offices.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been among the leading evangelists. The electric vehicle maker is betting on its Optimus robot, which Musk argues are “going to transform the world to a degree even greater than the cars.”

During the company’s first-quarter earnings call, Musk said Optimus could propel it to a $25 trillion market cap and that it will amount to “a majority of Tesla’s long-term value.” Amazon has backed Agility Robotics, and is already deploying its Digit robots in fulfillment centers.

Why the Data Ocean Is Being Sectioned Off

Gary McGraw, Dan Geer, Harold Figueroa

Welcome to the era of data feudalism. Large language model (LLM) foundation models require huge oceans of data for training—the more data trained upon, the better the result. But while the massive data collections began as a straightforward harvesting of public observables, those collections are now being sectioned off. To describe this situation, consider a land analogy: The first settlers coming into what was a common wilderness are stringing that wilderness with barbed wire. If and when entire enormous parts of the observable internet (say, Google search data, Twitter/X postings, or GitHub code piles) are cordoned off, it is not clear what hegemony will accrue to those first movers; they are little different from squatters trusting their “open and notorious occupation” will lead to adverse possession. Meanwhile, originators of large data sets (for example, the New York Times) have come to realize that their data are valuable in a new way and are demanding compensation even after those data have become part of somebody else’s LLM foundation model. Who can gain access control for the internet’s publicly reachable data pool, and why? Lock-in for early LLM foundation model movers is a very real risk.

Below, we define and discuss data feudalism, providing context by determining where data needed to create the latest generation of machine learning (ML) models come from, how much we need, who owns it, and who should own it. We describe the data ocean and its constituent parts. We discuss recursive pollution. We wonder if less can be more.

First, some definitions.

Machine learning: “We” (meaning computer scientists and practitioners) have been building computer programs for a long time, and we’re pretty good at it. When we know HOW to describe something programmatically, we write a program to do that. Machine learning is what you end up doing when you don’t know HOW to do something in clear enough terms to write a program to do it. After all, if we knew how to solve a certain problem, we would just write a program to do so!

Red Teaming Isn’t Enough

Gabriel Nicholas

Artificial intelligence (AI) may be good at a lot of things, but providing accurate election information isn’t one of them. According to research from the AI Democracy Projects, if you ask Google’s Gemini for the nearest polling place in North Philadelphia, it will tell you (incorrectly) that there are none. If you ask ChatGPT if you can wear a MAGA hat to the polls in Texas, it will tell you (again, incorrectly), to go right ahead.

13 July 2024

Modi 3.0: Six Defense Sector Reforms Key to National Security

Rahul Rawat

Over the past two terms, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has created the narrative of being a more muscular, national-security-oriented political party with a strong will to pursue reforms and implement policy decisions. However, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins his term in office as part of a National Democratic Alliance coalition government, many of his long-promised reforms in the defense sector remain in stasis. Modi 3.0 will have to address the six key reforms outlined below to ensure that India is capable of dealing with threats to its national security.

Develop a National Security Strategy

While the idea of developing a National Security Strategy (NSS) is not new and has been attempted at least thrice in the past, previous Indian governments have been unsuccessful due to the hesitation to establish political accountability for national security. In Modi’s previous term, the government was vocal about streamlining and transforming India’s national security, and promised to deliver the NSS. However, due to indecisiveness leading to a delay in processes and lack of enough political will, the government could not deliver. The National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) is collating inputs from various stakeholders and ministries to develop a comprehensive NSS. However, given the Chinese military challenge to India on the continental border and future threats at sea, such a strategy is much needed at the earliest. The lack of such a strategy raises concerns about a missing alignment between national policy and military strategy. As former Indian Army Chief General Manoj Naravane opines, “Defense strategy…has to flow out of a national security strategy.”

Alongside this, policymakers need to develop a revised and robust Joint Doctrine for the armed forces to cater to the needs of the emerging Integrated Theater Commands (ITCs) concept. The ITCs match the threats identified in the NSS with the warfighting roles and functions required for their mitigation. Therefore, the NSS becomes a key step in bridging the national political approach with the military’s operational readiness against adversaries. Sufficient political will and a push from the government are key to make this happen.

Indigenous Sniper Rifle: The Sabre Propels India’s Self-Reliance In Defence – Analysis

Girish Linganna

India is experiencing a surge in self-reliance, especially in the defence sector. With the easing of government restrictions, many local startups are challenging well-known firearm manufacturers, such as Heckler & Koch, Sig Sauer and FN Herstal.

One notable startup, the Bengaluru-based SSS Defence—part of the Stumpp Schuele & Somappa Group—is focused on making India self-sufficient by reducing the need for imported firearms for the armed forces and law-enforcement agencies.

Founded in 2017, SSS Defence specializes in manufacturing small arms, ammunition and high-end firearm accessories, such as optics. With a strong emphasis on innovation and smart design, the company aims to create advanced defence technology that integrates thoughtful design, precise engineering and top-notch operational performance. To meet the needs of the country’s defence forces and law-enforcement agencies, SSS Defence is developing advanced weapon systems and updating existing ones to handle modern challenges.

The company builds on the legacy of Padma Shri Machani Somappa, a former Indian industrialist. In 1960, he founded Stumpp, Schuele and Somappa, in partnership with the renowned German spring manufacturers, Stump & Schuele. This venture became the first spring manufacturing unit in the Indian subcontinent.

The new cyberspace doctrine’s impact on India's security

Ananya Raj Kakoti,Gunwant Singh

India has taken a decisive leap forward in its national security strategy with the release of the Joint Doctrine for Cyberspace Operations. Unveiled by Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan on June 18, 2024, this doctrine marks a significant milestone in the country's approach to cybersecurity. As cyber threats become increasingly sophisticated and pervasive, this doctrine not only reflects India’s commitment to safeguarding its cyberspace but also underscores the broader implications for its national security and defence.

In an era where digital infrastructure is the backbone of national security and economic prosperity, cyberspace operations have become crucial to military strategy. This doctrine outlines a comprehensive strategy integrating cyberspace capabilities across all military domains—land, sea, air, and space. Its elements include both defensive and offensive operations, a unified command structure, enhanced cyber intelligence, collaboration with civilian sectors, and continuous training and capability development.

As India ascends to the global stage, its integration into the digital world has opened both opportunities and vulnerabilities, making the launch of a joint cyberspace doctrine not just timely but essential. It provides a framework for safeguarding the nation's digital frontiers, promoting resilience, and enhancing collaboration with global partners to counteract the sophisticated tactics employed by cyber adversaries. India’s proactive stance in cyberspace will not only protect its interests but also position it as a formidable player in shaping the norms and regulations of global cyber governance.

China’s ‘Monster’ Ship Lingers In Philippine Waters

Chinese coast guard vessel 5901, dubbed “The Monster” for its size, has maintained an “illegal presence” in Philippine waters for a week, said a spokesperson for the country’s navy.

Roy Vincent Trinidad told reporters on Tuesday that the CCG 5901 has been near Sabina Shoal, known in the Philippines as Escoda Shoal, since July 3.

Manila’s biggest and most modern coast guard ship – the BRP Teresa Magbanua – has been shadowing the movements of the Chinese vessel, he said.

The 2,260-ton Philippine multi-role response vessel, however, is dwarfed by “The Monster” which is five times its size.

At some points, the Chinese ship was only about 500 meters (1,640 feet) from the BRP Teresa Magbanua, according to Trinidad.

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), foreign vessels can conduct so-called innocent passage and freedom of navigation operations. However, the spokesperson said: “We are monitoring them because they should not be conducting any maritime research, they should not be doing anything detrimental to the security of the state.”

CNA Explains: Myanmar’s ex-president visited China, followed by its junta No 2. What’s the play?

Leong Wai Kit

Beijing has been regularly inviting Myanmar’s junta-appointed ministers to China on various official visits.

But it was a late June visit by ex-president Thein Sein that sparked international headlines.

And just over a week later, the Myanmar military leadership’s No 2 man Soe Win made an official trip to attend a forum in Qingdao in Shandong province.

This made him the highest-ranking military leader to visit China in an official capacity since the 2021 coup.

What’s behind the timing of the visits?

The timeline of events would suggest that China seems to favour Myanmar’s former president over any of the current leaders in the military. Or that Thein Sein’s visit paved the way for Soe Win, who’s deputy army chief - and deputy prime minister under the State Administration Council formed after the coup.

But neither is the case, according to sources close to the Myanmar military.

For starters, CNA understands that since the military coup which ousted Aung San Suu Kyi and her democratically elected government, Beijing has adopted an unspoken policy of inviting junta-appointed ministers via multilateral rather than exclusive, bilateral platforms.

Beijing accused of misusing Western research to claim Volt Typhoon is a ransomware group

Alexander Martin

China’s national cybersecurity agency was accused on Wednesday of misrepresenting research from Western cybersecurity companies in an ongoing attempt to deny allegations that a Being-backed hacking group is behind attacks targeting critical infrastructure in the West.

The cybersecurity company Trellix pushed back against a conspiratorial report published Monday by China’s National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center (CVERC) claiming that the Five Eyes intelligence alliance had concocted evidence about the hacking campaign.

“This is likely an effort from the Chinese government to manipulate public perceptions of China threats,” said John Fokker, the head of threat intelligence at Trellix.

As researchers previously told Recorded Future News, the group tracked as Volt Typhoon by Microsoft and as Bronze Silhouette by Secureworks has gone to great lengths to conceal its connections to China, suggesting that Beijing has become increasingly sensitive about being blamed for offensive cyber operations.

The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) had in February warned that the hackers were “seeking to pre-position themselves on IT networks for disruptive or destructive cyberattacks against U.S. critical infrastructure in the event of a major crisis or conflict with the United States.”

U.S., Allies Issue Rare Warning on Chinese Hacking Group

Mike Cherney

Australia, the U.S. and six other allies warned that a Chinese state-sponsored hacking group poses a threat to their networks, in an unusual coordinated move by Western governments to call out a global hacking operation they say is directed by Beijing’s intelligence services.

Tuesday’s advisory was a rare instance of Washington’s major allies in the Pacific and elsewhere joining to sound the alarm on China’s cyber activity. Australia led and published the advisory. It was joined by the U.S., U.K., Canada and New Zealand, which along with Australia are part of an intelligence-sharing group of countries known as the Five Eyes. Germany, Japan and South Korea also signed on.

The warning marked the first time South Korea and Japan joined with Australia in attributing malicious cyber activity to China. It was also the first time that Australia—which has been reluctant to point the finger at China, its largest trading partner—led such an effort, according to a person familiar with the matter.

“In our current strategic circumstances, these attributions are increasingly important tools in deterring malicious cyber activity,” said Richard Marles, Australia’s deputy prime minister and defense minister.

Can China’s PLA fight a modern war?

FRANCESCO SISCI

hina’s failures to reform the army may lie deep in the ancient military mindset that doesn’t fit modern requirements.

Can the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fight? And in case, how would they fight? They had the human waves in Korea and they advised the Vietnamese on guerrilla warfare but how would they perform in a modern war?

Reportedly[i], General He Weidong, the second-ranked vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, denounced “fake combat capabilities” in the military, which experts say is likely related to weapons procurement – the focus of present corruption investigations.

However, foreign experts like Kenneth Allen believe personnel is the actual weak link of the PLA. His key findings are the following:

“The PLA has continued to make major adjustments to its enlisted force since 1999. These include creating a 30-year enlisted force, recruiting college students and graduates as two-year conscripts, shifting from a one-cycle to a two-cycle per year conscription system in 2021, and directly recruiting personnel with special technical skills as NCOs.
The turnover of conscripts each year affects the annual training cycle, such that units are missing a significant number of personnel for months at a time.The officer corps has also changed considerably by abolishing the National Defense Student program that began in 1999, reducing the number of officer academic institutions from 63 to 34 in 2017, and directly recruiting college graduates as officers.

Was fallen Chinese defence minister Wei Fenghe compromised by hostile force?

William Zheng

China’s fallen former defence minister Wei Fenghe may have been compromised by a hostile force as the peculiar wording of the official indictment hinted.

In an unprecedented move, Wei, along with his successor Li Shangfu, was officially impeached by the Politburo headed by President Xi Jinping on June 27. The duo were expelled from the party and could face further legal action.

While Beijing has not revealed details of their offences, one particular phrase from the official impeachment against Wei caught the attention of seasoned Chinese experts.

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Of the all top generals who fell in Xi’s war against corruption, Wei was the only one described as “zhongcheng shi jie” or “ being disloyal and losing one’s chastity”.

The hard-to-translate phrase “shi jie” has its origins in Chinese history, where it was used to describe the moral degradation of the scholar-gentry who formed the ruling class.

WRESTLING WITH THE FUTURE OF US-CHINA COMPETITION

Daniel Byman and Benjamin Jensen

Although US government officials and pundits alike loudly proclaim an era of US-China rivalry, their calls to arms struggle to mobilize the American public. Indeed, a recent Gallup poll indicates that Americans see China as a negligible problem among those they rank as the most important facing the country today.

The reason for this gap is simple. China has not entered the popular imagination the way that Nazis, Russian communists, and Middle Eastern terrorists did. This gap is embodied, and perhaps even worsened, by one simple observation: professional wrestling does not feature an evil Chinese Communist Party wrestler.

Hear us out.

Of course, we are aware our influence over the powers that be of professional wrestling is limited, and even if we could shape the course of professional wrestling’s character development, the long history of often problematic portrayals inside the ring would make doing so a risky proposition. Still, however, it is a truism that war is a continuation of politics, and society and culture frame threats and thus shape politics. There is no better place to witness this display than the wonderful, colorful world of professional wrestling. And that world shows a different threat landscape than that of the strategy class in Washington. Unlike the Cold War era, which thrived on turning America’s rivals into ringside villains and heels, modern professional wrestling has yet to embrace China as a threat.

Iran’s New Naval Ambitions

Hamidreza Azizi

Since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip in October, the Red Sea has become a second battleground. The Houthis, an armed group based in Yemen and backed by Iran, have launched missiles and sent armed drones to strike commercial ships passing through the maritime route. They have sunk two vessels and damaged dozens more. By disrupting the route through which at least 12 percent of all international trade passes in a typical year, the Houthis’ attacks have caused shipping costs to skyrocket and upended the trade system. The group has pledged to continue targeting merchant vessels until Israel ends its military operations in Gaza, calculating that the disarray it causes will increase the international pressure on the Israeli government to bring the war to a close.

The Houthis may be leading this attack, but they are not acting alone. The group is a part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” a network of mostly nonstate partners that Tehran mobilizes in service of its regional goals. Iran has provided weapons and intelligence to support the Houthis’ Red Sea campaign, and the country’s leaders have endorsed the strikes on commercial ships.

Advancing Warfare Safety: Russia’s Breakthrough in Drone ‘Friend or Foe’ Technology

SOFREP News Team

Listen up, folks. We’re not just talking about some new gadget hitting the shelves; we’re diving into the heart of modern combat, where the stakes are life and death, and the players are machines of war.

RPC Pulsar, Russia’s dark horse in the tech race, is rolling out a beast that will redefine the rules of engagement.

They’ve developed an Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system for drones that’s about as subtle as a sledgehammer in a china shop but as precise as a scalpel.

A Featherweight Titan: The Miniaturized Marvel

Weighing in at a mere 150 grams, this isn’t your average hunk of metal.

This miniaturized transponder is the brainchild of necessity, birthed from the chaos of contemporary battlefields, where the sky is thick with drones—friends and foes alike.

What to Watch for at the NATO Summit This Week

Michael Crowley, Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt and John Ismay

As NATO leaders gather in Washington starting Tuesday, they will celebrate the strength of their alliance on its 75th anniversary while confronting deep uncertainty about its future.

In recent years, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has given NATO, founded after World War II to defend Europe from the Soviet Union, a renewed sense of purpose. But the alliance also faces grave threats, including from right-wing skeptics who are gaining power in nations such as Germany and France.

And the potential return to the White House of Donald J. Trump, who has derided NATO and even mused about withdrawing the United States from the alliance, has raised alarms among its members.

Here’s what to watch for during the three days of NATO meetings in Washington this week.

Staring Down Putin

Perhaps the summit’s most important goal will be sending a signal of unity and strength to Moscow.

Officials say that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is counting on NATO’s efforts to counter his aggression to dwindle, potentially allowing him to conquer much more of Ukraine and even turn his sights to other nations.

That’s why a central theme of the summit will be demonstrating not only a long-term commitment to Ukraine, but also the endurance of NATO itself.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said last week that the summit’s “main purpose” would be to showcase the value of spending on Europe’s collective defense. He noted that security agreements struck recently between dozens of NATO members and Ukraine would help to “tell Vladimir Putin that he can’t out-wait Ukraine, he can’t out-wait all of Ukraine’s partners.”

Russia’s War Against Ukraine In 2024 And Looking Ahead To 2025 – Analysis

Dr. Taras Kuzio

The failure of the Ukrainian 2023 offensive was in large part due to long delays in Western military assistance and the training of new Ukrainian brigades (Espreso, December 27, 2023). This gave Russia about nine months, from October 2022 to June 2023, to build fortifications along three “Surovikin lines,” including deep trenches, covered fighting positions, tank obstacles, and mines with a density of approximately five per square meter (Slovo i Dilo, September 2, 2023; BBC Ukrainian, September 27, 2023).

In particular, the delay in military supplies was caused by a lack of political will in the United States and Germany out of fear of nuclear escalation with Russia (Ukrinform, June 1; 24 Kanal, June 7). The rapid collapse and rout of Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction sparked fears in the Kremlin a Ukrainian breakthrough might south toward the Azov Sea, potentially leading to the collapse of Russia’s occupation in southeast Ukraine (Armiya Inform, September 6, 2023). In those conditions, Moscow’s nuclear threats became the most intense, further enflaming fears of escalation in the West (Holos Ameryky, September 23, 2022).

These developments over the past two years of war shed insight on what Ukraine can expect for the future. The increased interest from the West to provide aid to Ukraine and the continuing failures of the Russian army may open an opportunity for Ukraine to take the initiative in the war.

Here are the ships the U.S. plans to sink in the Pacific this summer

JEFF SCHOGOL

While many Americans think of summer as the perfect season to hit the pool for a float, U.S. service members in the Pacific are thinking about what they’re going to sink. In live fire exercises dubbed “SINKEXs,” troops in the region have already sunk two ships from the air and the land, with one big aquatic finale expected before Labor Day.

In June, the Army tested its ability to sink ships with land-based weapons against one retired warship, the USS Cleveland, as part of Valiant Shield 2024. The amphibious transport dock broke up and sunk after being struck by a variety of ordnance, including two Precision Strike Missiles, or PrSMs. It was the first time that the missiles were used against a ship, officials said.

Also last month, a Marine AH-1Z Viper attack helicopter sank a ship-sized target as it was being towed using an AGM-179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missile, or JAGM.

But the real fireworks are expected to come soon during the ongoing RIMPAC exercise, the region’s largest annual war games with U.S. and Pacific partners. Officials have said the amphibious assault ship USS Tarawa — a warship second only to full-size aircraft carrier in size — is expected to be sunk in a SINKEX finale to this year’s ongoing RIMPAC exercise, which lasts until Aug. 1.

First US Navy Submarine Will Deploy With New UUV Capability This Year

Dr Lee Willett

While submarines have deployed with UUVs in the past, the TTL&R option allows for ease of system deployment and retrieval, increasing capability, reach, and manoeuvre in the undersea domain.

Vice Admiral Rob Gaucher, the US Navy’s Commander Submarine Forces, told the Naval Leaders’ Combined Naval Event 2024 (CNE 24) conference in Farnborough, UK in late May:

“We’re going to install UUVs on a submarine, USS Delaware, starting in a couple of weeks, and they will deploy by the end of the year,”

“We’re already looking at who’s going to be next to start installing, so that we continuously have a submarine-operated vehicle,” Vice Adm Gaucher added.

Delaware is a Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN). Commissioned in April 2020, the Block III Virginia boat is the 18th of a planned force level of 66 Virginia hulls.

Vice Adm Gaucher explained that delivering a fully integrated SSN-based UUV capability is a key development priority, as part of building the USN submarine force’s future operational posture. “From my perspective, we are not operating UUVs enough in the submarine force,” he added.

This capability development process will be accelerating in 2024, Vice Adm Gaucher said. Delaware’s deployment will involve an HII REMUS 600 UUV. This type of UUV was launched from the Delaware’s torpedo tube and was recovered the same way during a test in late 2023.

The Pentagon Can’t Wait to Innovate

Leon E. Panetta and Mike Gallagher

The U.S. faces grave national-security threats around the globe. Conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, combined with a shifting balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, embolden America’s adversaries and threaten the free world. If the U.S. doesn’t act swiftly to ensure our technological edge, we’ll risk further deterrence failures and the erosion of international freedom.

China and Russia are expanding their global influence through conventional military power and advances in manufacturing and critical technology. The U.S. is unlikely to adopt industrial policy or match our enemies in sheer production volume. That’s OK; our path forward instead lies in America’s capacity to innovate.

Our enemies prioritize personal power and ambition over their citizens’ interests. Such authoritarians are also willing to steal to overcome a dearth of homegrown innovation. The well-documented theft of intellectual property and cyberattacks conducted by state-sponsored actors in China, Russia, Iran and North Korea reveals that our enemies have contempt for the rules-based international order. Yet we needn’t stoop to their level to compete. By embracing American innovation and ingenuity as cornerstones of our national-defense strategy, we can uphold and strengthen our fundamental values.

U.S. Officials Say Russia Is Unlikely to Take Much More Ukrainian Territory

Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt

Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months as its poorly trained forces struggle to break through Ukrainian defenses that are now reinforced with Western munitions, U.S. officials say.

Through the spring and early summer, Russian troops tried to take territory outside the city of Kharkiv and renew a push in eastern Ukraine, to capitalize on their seizure of Avdiivka. Russia has suffered thousands of casualties in the drive while gaining little new territory.

Russia’s problems represent a significant change in the dynamic of the war, which had favored Moscow in recent months. Russian forces continue to inflict pain, but their incremental advances have been slowed by the Ukrainians’ hardened lines.

The months ahead will not be easy for Ukraine. But allied leaders gathering in Washington this week for the 75th anniversary of the founding of North Atlantic Treaty Organization can legitimately argue that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.

At NATO summit, Gaza is the elephant in the room

Ishaan Tharoor

In Washington’s giant downtown convention center, one issue will loom above them all: Ukraine. The country’s plight as it resists Russian invasion is the central focus of NATO leaders gathering in the U.S. capital this week. While Kyiv is not expected to come away with the direct invitation into the alliance it much desires, U.S. officials and their partners are mustering a package of other political and security commitments to help Ukraine turn the tide of the war.

The urgency of the moment was underscored after yet more Russian missile strikes hit civilian areas in Ukraine on Monday, killing dozens and, in one instance, destroying a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Ukrainian officials have been pleading for months for their Western allies to transfer more air defense platforms and munitions to thwart the Russian barrages, and stepped up their entreaties in Washington.

“We’re looking for some serious and strong decisions from the Washington summit about concrete systems of air defense because it’s one of the most critical moments,” Andriy Yermak, chief of staff of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, told reporters in Washington ahead of the summit.

As fears mount of an Israel-Lebanon war, Hezbollah’s arsenal looms large

Mohamad El Chamaa and Samuel Granados

After nine months of cross-border conflict with Hezbollah, Israel says it is preparing for a full-scale war in Lebanon, warning the time for diplomacy is running out.

Hezbollah, a militia and political party that grew out of Lebanon’s civil war to become one of the strongest non-state actors in the Middle East, has been preparing for this moment since 2006, when Israeli forces last invaded the country.

It has received large shipments of rockets and drones from Iran, its principal patron, and has more recently begun to produce its own weapons. The group also boasts air defense capabilities, which most militias don’t have.

The group’s arsenal includes guided and unguided rockets, antitank artillery, ballistic and anti-ship missiles, as well as explosives-laden drones — portending a complex, multi-front conflict that could reach far into Israeli territory.

Analysts estimate Hezbollah has between 130,000 and 150,000 rockets and missiles, more than four times as many as its ally Hamas was believed to have stockpiled before the war in Gaza. And the Lebanese group says it commands more than 100,000 soldiers, well over double the high-end estimates of Hamas’s prewar fighting force.

High-Tech American Weapons Work Against Russia—Until They Don’t

Yaroslav Trofimov

The Excalibur artillery round performed wonders when it was introduced into the Ukrainian battlefield in the summer of 2022. Guided by GPS, the shells hit Russian tanks and artillery with surgical precision, as drones overhead filmed the resulting fireballs.

That didn’t last.

Within weeks, the Russian army started to adapt, using its formidable electronic warfare capabilities. It managed to interfere with the GPS guidance and fuzes, so that the shells would either go astray, fail to detonate, or both. By the middle of last year, the M982 Excalibur munitions, developed by RTX and BAE Systems, became essentially useless and are no longer employed, Ukrainian commanders say.

Several other weapons that showcased the West’s technological superiority have encountered a similar fate. Russian electronic countermeasures have significantly reduced the precision of GPS-guided missiles fired by Himars systems, the weapon credited for reversing the momentum of the war in Ukraine’s favor in the summer of 2022, Ukrainian military officials say.

A brand-new system, the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb munition, manufactured by Boeing and Sweden’s Saab, has failed altogether after its introduction in recent months, in part because of Russian electronic warfare, Ukrainian and Western officials say. It is no longer in use in Ukraine pending an overhaul.

Open-TeleVision: Why human intelligence could be the key to next-gen robotic automation

James Thomason

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Last week, researchers at MIT and UCSD unveiled a new immersive remote control experience for robots. This innovative system, dubbed “Open-TeleVision,” enables operators to actively perceive the robot’s surroundings while mirroring their hand and arm movements. As the researchers describe it, the system “creates an immersive experience as if the operator’s mind is transmitted to a robot embodiment.”

In recent years, AI has dominated discussions about the future of robotics. From autonomous vehicles to warehouse robots, the promise of machines that can think and act for themselves has captured imaginations and investments. Companies like Boston Dynamics have showcased impressive AI-driven robots that can navigate complex environments and perform intricate tasks.

However, AI-powered robots still struggle with adaptability, creative problem-solving, and handling unexpected situations – areas where human intelligence excels.

Del Toro Missed the Boat on SLCM-N and on the Submarine Force’s Role

Franklin C. Miller

For several months Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro has been waging an overt and covert campaign against SLCM-N. His public testimony makes clear that he not only misunderstands the role of a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile in national policy but also the role of the submarine force.

In a clearly scripted colloquy with Senator Mark Kelly on May 16, Del Toro asserted that deploying SLCM-N on SSNs would adversely impact the submarine force: “I’m concerned about how it will operationally impact our submarine forces and their ability to actually conduct the tactics and operations that they actually need to do in the south, in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere around the world”; said it would “fundamentally change the mission of the submarines themselves”; agreed with Senator Kelly that the system was unnecessary because the Trident II W-76-2 warhead was sufficient for deterrence purposes; and also agreed with Kelly that the removal of conventional torpedoes to accommodate SLCM-N would reduce SSNs’ wartime utility. There’s a great deal of misinformation in all that. Let’s unpack it piece by piece.

First, the primary mission of the submarine force (indeed of all of our armed forces) is to deter major war. If deterrence fails, our forces are to fight and win – but deterrence is the first mission. In an increasingly dangerous world in which our two peer adversaries deploy large numbers of theater nuclear systems, a U.S. nuclear sea-launched cruise missile would enhance deterrence and reassure allies in peacetime and crisis, and, in wartime, provide a President with additional options to prevent enemy nuclear escalation.

How NGAD Fighter Can Help Win the Next War

Kirk Lippold

When former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said that you go to war with the army you have, not with the army you wish you had, the U.S was already at war. All the leaders of the military could do was react to their short-sighted budget failures and scramble to upgrade those vehicles as quickly as possible, even as they came under relentless attacks in Iraq.

Fortunately, the United States is not in a declared state of war. Now is the time for decisive leadership and investments in the military we want to have, and then build it to protect us in the future. We should act now, before we are in the middle of a fight, not react later at the expense of American lives.

This point seems obvious, but it apparently escapes Philip Breedlove, a retired Air Force general. Breedlove writes that the “global threat environment demands we build as many F-35s as we can, as fast as we can.” Why would he think that? He says it is because, “the F-35 is simply the only allied stealth fighter in production that meets the demands of modern warfare.”

While speciously factual, it belies a greater underlying problem that fails to get to a long-term and sustainable solution. Having watched numerous budget contortions by the Air Force in the past, his statement alone is driven more by service loyalty to the Air Force than developing a combat-capable fighter to safeguard our nation. Even if it was true that the F-35 is all we have today (it isn’t, but that point isn’t worth arguing about), it simply isn’t good enough. The Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps all struggle to deploy F-35s, even as they keep coming off the assembly line over budget and failing to meet their design mission requirements. It remains a struggling acquisition program.

Inside the next era of warfare: How tech is reshaping the battlefield

Colin Demarest

Conflicts abroad and defense-contract competitions at home illuminate in real time the future of America's war machine.

Why it matters: Today's closely watched fights are shaping those of tomorrow, and the pace of battlefield innovation is only accelerating.

Cheap, abundant drones are devastating far more expensive systems in Eastern Europe. In waters off Yemen, they embroil the U.S. Navy in fighting so intense it's been compared to World War II.
Disinformation campaigns shape international perceptions, including in Africa, where Russia's playbook colors a U.S. withdrawal from Niger.
Directed-energy weapons that fry electronics from afar and intercept overhead threats are leaping from sci-fi to reality. Powerful lasers and microwaves are headed to the greater Middle East.
Data is currency — or ammunition, depending who you ask. And artificial intelligence is parsing it all to aid maintenance, targeting and every application in between.
Increasing access to overhead imagery empowers commanders on the front lines and hobbyists at home to keep tabs on movements halfway across the globe. You are always being watched.

12 July 2024

Why the Himalayan Region Is Integral to a Rules-Based Order in the Indo-Pacific

Jagannath Panda, Ryohei Kasai, and Eerishika Pankaj

In June 2024, former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi minced no words in criticizing the Chinese government and President Xi Jinping for the persecution of Tibetans, including attempts to erase their culture. Pelosi was part of a U.S. delegation that met with the 14th Dalai Lama in Dharamshala, India, where he has been living in exile since he was forced to flee Tibet in 1959 after an uprising against China’s repressive rule was brutally suppressed. China considers the Dalai Lama a dangerous separatist, and seeks to prevent all diplomatic contact with him.

Pelosi’s acrimony went beyond empty rhetoric. Building on the U.S. Congress’ “Resolve Tibet Act,” passed only days before her visit to Dharamshala, she heralded stronger U.S. support for the Himalayan region, which China is trying to rebrand as “Xizang,” the Mandarin term for Tibet. Her remarks have yet again brought to the forefront the fact that Chinese militarization in Tibet remains a perennial concern not just for India, but for the United States – and its Indo-Pacific allies and partners.

For China, Tibet is perhaps the most critical, but not the only, aspect of its growing Himalayan troubles. Most notably, China has a long-standing border dispute with India, which has kept getting more hostile since Xi Jinping came into power – recall the 2017 Doklam stand-off, the defining 2020 Galwan Clash, and the 2022 Tawang skirmish, to name but a few prominent contentions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Marine Corps revives in-demand attack helicopter unit scrapped in 2022

CAITLYN BURCHETT

An ongoing need for attack helicopter squadrons led the Marine Corps to revive a unit this week, less than two years after it was deactivated, service officials said.

The Marine Corps bid farewell to its Light Attack Helicopter Squadron 269, known as the “Gunrunners,” in December 2022 as part of a service-wide overhaul. But the farewell was not so final, lasting just 18 months.

The squadron, which is part of North Carolina-based II Marine Aircraft Wing, was reactivated Monday, July 1 after the Marine Corps conducted an analysis on force management. The analysis found there was a need for an additional attack helicopter squadron on the East Coast to support the II Marine Expeditionary Force, one of three Marine air-ground task forces meant to deploy overseas in response to conflict and crises. The second expeditionary force is based at Marine Corps Air Station New River, and the first and third are at Camp Pendleton and Okinawa, Japan, respectively.

“With persistent demand for light attack and utility aviation support, the [light attack helicopter] remains effective in crisis response and contingency missions while proving exceptional relevance in a peer-adversary maritime conflict,” said Cathleen Close, spokesperson for Marine Corps Combat Development and Integration.

China's Unique Challenge to the West

David P. Goldman

In his lead forum essay, Captain Jerry Hendrix addresses the challenges of a multipolar world by envisioning “a broad alliance structure made up of self-determined democracies pursuing free market economies” in opposition to the “new authoritarian bloc” of Russia and China. He has done a great service by resituating America’s strategic position in the face of great power competition’s return. Hendrix, however, maintains that today’s multipolar world is a return to business as usual. I argue, instead, that today’s great power competition is unlike anything we have seen in the past because China is a competitor unlike any we have encountered.

Imperial powers of the past filled the world and pursued conquest for the sake of, among other things, scarce resources. Roman soldiers were stationed from Mesopotamia to the Hibernian border, sending 100,000 or more slaves a year back to Rome. The “far-flung battle line” of the British Empire included large parts of Asia and Africa. Britain financed its trade deficit during most of the nineteenth century by growing opium in India and selling it to China. The empires of Spain and Portugal extracted bullion from the New World and spent most of it on luxury imports from China—this bullion in turn paid for China’s nineteenth-century opium imports. The French and British fought their eighteenth-century wars over control of colonies, the slave trade, and the East Indian trade. Even the world wars of the twentieth century were fought because of territory. France in 1914 wanted the return of Alsace and Lorraine; Serbia wanted Bosnia-Herzegovina. The frontier of German expansion into Slavic lands defined the conflict between Moscow, Vienna, and Berlin. Hitler, for his part, demanded Lebensraum.

What the China-Russia alliance means for the West - OPINION

ANDREAS UMLAND AND HUGO VON ESSEN

Over the years, Beijing and Moscow have slowly created what now appears to be an anti-American and anti-liberal global front, bound together by their desire to revise not only the status of Ukraine and Taiwan but the current world order.

Russia may thus continue receiving considerable — and possibly even greater — help from China, which could keep its economy afloat and its war against Ukraine going for many years to come.

To be sure, Beijing’s interests still differ from Moscow’s in several respects. Greater Chinese support for Russia is risky for its already crisis-prone economy, should the West extend sanctions against its banks and companies. And for the first time since mid-2022, in March and April of this year, Chinese exports to Russia fell compared to the same months the year before, reflecting growing caution — as well as the payment problems faced by Russian importers due to increasing pressure from the U.S.

Notwithstanding such developments, however, we should all be skeptical of Beijing’s official would-be pacifist rhetoric. The country’s long-running systematic support for Russia indicates an interest in keeping the confrontation going — and reaping the economic and geopolitical advantages.

China’s Self-Imposed Isolation

Michael Schuman

In late June, a Chinese man stabbed a woman from Japan and her child at a bus stop for a Japanese school in the eastern city of Suzhou. Two weeks earlier, four foreign teachers from a U.S. college were attacked by a knife-wielding local as they strolled through a park in the northeastern town of Jilin. In a country where violence against foreigners has been practically unheard-of in recent years, the assaults have led to some uncomfortable soul-searching among a shocked Chinese public.

Are hard economic times fueling a dangerous spike in nationalism? some ask in online debates. Has the Chinese school system, with its focus on patriotism, fed people bad ideas? they wonder. Occasionally, a bold voice risks angering China’s censors by posing an even more sensitive possibility: Could the government be to blame?

Chinese state media bombard the public with warnings about foreign spies, plots, and threats, as well as deluging them with negative portrayals of the United States, Japan, and other countries. “What impact,” one commenter on the social-media platform Zhihu asked, will this “false and one-sided content have on ordinary people’s cognition and social trends?”

The Hunter and the Hunted: A Review of Hunting the Caliphate

Kier M. Elmonairy

I. Two Heads are Better than One

Hunting the Caliphate, a co-authored book detailing the authors’ firsthand experiences of fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) from the summer of 2014 until the fall of 2015, provides a remarkably personal first draft of history. Dana J.H. Pittard, the commander of the U.S. forces fighting ISIS in 2014 and 2015 and an Army Major General (MG) at the time, [3] provides a bird’s eye view of U.S. efforts in Iraq and Syria.[4] Wes J. Bryant, then the senior Special Forces (SF) Joint Terminal Attack Controller (JTAC) and an Air Force Master Sergeant (MSgt),[5] gives readers an up-close look at the fight against ISIS.[6] Each author provides his own point of view, and the book clearly marks where one perspective end and the next begins.[7] Rather than becoming a distraction, this passing of the narrative from general to non-commissioned officer creates a dynamic tension that not only drives the book forward, but serves to set it apart from other books about the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Few of the leading books concerning ISIS feature a first-person perspective.[8] Additionally, as the authors point out, Hunting the Caliphate is “the first major book written by a JTAC),”[9] a remarkable fact given the key role of airpower in the fight against ISIS.[10] This pairing creates an account of the fight against ISIS that is equally at ease discussing meetings with senators[11] and speeches to foreign generals on the one hand, and the inner workings of a strike cell on the other.[12]

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