IMAGINE A beach where for decades people have enjoyed sunbathing in the buff. Suddenly one of the world’s biggest corporations takes it over and invites anyone in, declaring that thongs and mankinis are the new nudity. The naturists object, but sun-worshippers flock in anyway. That, by and large, is the situation in the world’s open-source community, where bare-it-all purists are confronting Meta, the social-media giant controlled by a mankini-clad Mark Zuckerberg.
4 September 2024
Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI?
Nick Corvino and Boshen Li
Transformative artificial intelligence (AI) poses many potential benefits for humanity’s future, but it also poses many risks. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) will likely play a prominent role in shaping this trajectory. As the recent decision (决定) document from the Third Plenum meetings in July made clear, AI is one of eight technologies that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership sees as critical for achieving “Chinese-style modernization (中国式现代化),” and is central to the strategy of centering the country’s economic future around breakthroughs in frontier science (People’s Daily, July 22). Beyond the level of national economic strategy, AI is also seen as crucial for gaining military advantage. AI technology is already being integrated into air defense systems, while large language models (LLMs) are being put to use in Cognitive Domain Operations around the world (China Brief; June 21; September 22, 2023). The PRC also seeks to shape international norms on AI, including on AI risks. In October 2023, Xi Jinping announced a “Global AI Governance Initiative (全球人工智能治理倡议)” (CAC, October 18, 2023).Despite the potential revolutionary significance of AI, for either good or ill, and its increasing importance in the eyes of the CCP leadership, publicly accessible survey data on what people in the PRC think about this technology is rare. To gain insights into this question, the authors conducted a survey to assess how students at Tsinghua University and Peking University (PKU) view the frontier risks of developing AI. Tsinghua and PKU are the two preeminent academic institutions in the PRC, many of whose graduates will be very influential in shaping the country’s future. These students may also be some of China’s most informed citizens on the societal implications of AI, with both schools housing prominent generative AI and safe AI development programs.
3 September 2024
How to secure the China front - Opinion
Lt Gen Harinder Singh (Retd)
India will have to make it clear to China that it opposes any unilateral military action. Any Chinese attempt to alter the status quo will be met with stiff resistance, and if necessary, with counter action.
China’s growing military might and its assertive posture along the Himalayas pose a tough challenge to India. It is incumbent upon India to craft a border guarding strategy that not only safeguards its rightful territorial claims, but deters China from undertaking any unilateral military action. Until a mutually acceptable boundary solution is found, India has no option but to build its capacity to deter China from altering the status quo.
Building India’s capacity would imply acquiring and deploying assets for strategic intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), augmenting border infrastructure and troop habitat, fielding the right mix of weapon-platforms, creating an asymmetric edge, stockpiling strategic reserves of war material and restructuring the current force to provide high levels of military readiness and response action. But deterring the Chinese military is not simply a matter of restructuring, equipping and reorienting the border guarding force; it is also about signalling a strong military intent and willingness to use force.
What Would Trump Victory Mean For India? – Analysis
Subrata Majumder
Come September, global futurists are scrambling to anticipate how a second term of Trump’s Presidency bodes for the world and India. According to the latest opinion poll by New York Times, Kamla Harris has a marginal edge over Donald Trump. But, it does not foretell the demise of Trump chances for a second term.
Kamla Harris, though half Indian by heritage, does not augur well for special priority on USA-India relations. The reality lies with the background during the Biden administration, when strengthening of US-India relation was geared by President initiative, rather than Harris’ Indian heritage, the then Vice-President..
It is a mix of concern and comforts, If Trump comes back in power. Trump’s emphatic focus on protectionism is a matter of concern. At the same time Trump’s hard stand against China bodes well for India in the wake of Trump likely using India to counterbalance China in Indo Pacific region.
Donald Trump said he would impose a 10 percent import tariff on all nations and 60 percent on China. His America First policies will get a push to instill confidence of Americanization in every policy where “Every decision on trade, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families”, which was outlined during Trump’s first term
Taiwan — Lessons From Ukraine
Doug Livermore
As they gaze out at the straits separating their island state from China, the Taiwanese military can see an awful lot. It’s not a pretty picture. Radars detect whole squadrons of Chinese attack aircraft blithely crossing into Taiwan’s air defense zone, spy balloons drifting over the country, or naval and other vessels taking station to practice strangulation of the island state. Chinese propagandists make no secret of their goal — enforced Taiwanese capitulation or invasion.
How to fight this war, if and when it comes? Taiwan is preparing — see its increased orders of US equipment and its record defense budget — but it is also taking note of what is happening in Ukraine. Because the nature of war has changed and the old answers are very likely inadequate to meet the threat.
On the plus side, as the threat grows, so do the defensive possibilities. Ukraine is, in many ways, a completely different strategic challenge, but if the right lessons are drawn, it can help inform a smarter and more resilient approach to the Chinese menace. The war is, after all, the most recent large-scale, advanced tech war the world has seen.
How East Asia's Population Crunch Could Lead to Crisis
Micah McCartney
The fast-shifting demographic landscape of East Asia's top economies is a slow-moving crisis, one analyst said at a talk hosted by U.S. think tank the Asia Society Policy Institute last week.
Others said the economic and social impact of the trends in South Korea and its developed neighbors, driven by plummeting birthrates and aging workforces, could be offset if governments tackle the root issues and embrace labor-saving solutions.
South Korea's fertility rate is the lowest in the world at 0.72 births expected per woman during her lifetime, despite over $200 billion in government funding in the past 16 years on initiatives to encourage child-rearing. Neighboring China (1.0), Japan (1.2) and Taiwan (0.85) also rank near the bottom of fertility rate tables.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is considered necessary to replace a population.
Dwindling workforce
Two decades from now, "you're going to see (South Korea's) population of the working age side drop by about 10 and a half million people," Troy Stangarone, director of the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy at Wilson Center, said citing South Korean government statistics. "So that's roughly one-third of the workforce will leave the workforce over the next two decades."
China’s Views on AI Safety Are Changing—Quickly
Matt Sheehan
Over the past two years, China’s artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem has undergone a significant shift in how it views and discusses AI safety. For many years, some of the leading AI scientists in Western countries have been warning that future AI systems could become powerful enough to pose catastrophic risks to humanity. Concern over these risks—often grouped under the umbrella term “AI safety”—has sparked new fields of technical research and led to the creation of governmental AI safety institutes in the United States, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere. But for most of the past five years, it was unclear whether these concerns about extreme risks were shared by Chinese scientists or policymakers.
Today, there is mounting evidence that China does indeed share these concerns. A growing number of research papers, public statements, and government documents suggest that China is treating AI safety as an increasingly urgent concern, one worthy of significant technical investment and potential regulatory interventions. Momentum around AI safety first began to build within China’s elite technical community, and it now appears to be gaining some traction in the country’s top policy circles. In a potentially significant move, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) released a major policy document in July 2024 that included a call to create “oversight systems to ensure the safety of artificial intelligence.”
China’s new stealth warship unveiled in leaked images
Dylan Malyasov
The vessel, identified as a next-generation corvette, represents a significant development for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), being the first of its kind in their fleet.
The warship, which appears to be a successor to the Type 056 corvettes (NATO reporting name: Jiangdao-class), has drawn considerable attention from defense analysts. Some speculate that the vessel may serve as a test platform for new technologies, while others suggest it could be part of an export order for an undisclosed foreign buyer.
Andreas Rupprecht, an experienced observer of China’s defense sector, commented on the development: “The ship could serve as a comprehensive test platform, which would align with its advanced design and capabilities.”
The corvette’s design emphasizes stealth, incorporating large, flat, angled surfaces that are meticulously crafted to reduce various signatures. These features include minimizing optical, infrared, acoustic, and radar signatures, enhancing the ship’s ability to evade detection in hostile environments. The advanced hull design further highlights the PLAN’s focus on survivability and effectiveness in potential combat situations.
Hong Kong’s New Strategic Role After the Third Plenum
Sunny Cheung
The Third Plenary Session (三中全会) of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) signaled an evolving role for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) in the national strategy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). At a recent forum held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre a month after the meetings in Beijing, key figures such as Shen Chunyao (沈春耀), Deputy Director of the Constitution and Law Committee of the National People’s Congress, and Wang Wentao (王文涛), Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of Commerce, went to Hong Kong and outlined Hong Kong’s future responsibilities in the context of the country’s broader reforms (Hong Kong Government [HKG], August 26).
With over 500 attendees, including government officials, Executive Council members, and Legislative Council members, Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu (李家超) emphasized that the third plenum had put forward over 300 reform measures covering political, economic, cultural, social, ecological, and national security areas. He called on all sectors in Hong Kong to deeply study the directives and apply them in their respective roles (HKG, August 26).
Iran cyber operations exposed in reports from Google, Microsoft
Jonathan Greig
Iran’s military is using an array of cyber campaigns to root out people accused of helping the country’s adversaries, according to a new report from Google. Researchers at the company’s Mandiant unit uncovered a web of social media accounts, fake websites and more used by Iran’s military to gain information on “Iranians and domestic threats who may be collaborating with intelligence and security agencies abroad, particularly in Israel.”
“The collected data may be leveraged to uncover human intelligence (HUMINT) operations conducted against Iran and to persecute any Iranians suspected to be involved in these operations,” the researchers explained.
Mandiant attributed the campaign to Iran’s government based on the tactics, techniques and targeting seen. The security company noted that it saw no relation between this campaign and the recently discovered operations targeting U.S. elections.
More than 40 fake recruiting websites written in Farsi and Arabic were discovered, with most offering jobs in Israel. Visitors of the website were asked to enter their personal information and other data.
Four Geopolitical Disruptions and How to Exploit Them
Nadia Schadlow
In 1939, Albert Einstein wrote to President Franklin D. Roosevelt about a breakthrough promising “a new and important source of energy.” The scientist cautioned that it could “conceivably” be weaponized into an extremely powerful bomb, a conclusion Nazi Germany might have also reached. More than eight decades later, technological breakthroughs and geopolitical shifts are still disrupting the world—for better or worse. Today, four emerging disruptions will demand the attention of whomever the American people choose as their president:
1. An authoritarian axis is rapidly coalescing around China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, disrupting the belief that an international community has taken shape in the aftermath of the Cold War.
2. Climate alarmism and the prohibitively expensive green transition will give way to energy sobriety, which recognizes the need for abundant, reliable, and cheap power.
3. A new realism about trade will see beliefs about free trade cast aside in favor of addressing imbalanced trade and the mercantilist practices of countries like China.
4. The transformational potential of artificial intelligence will affect individuals, societies, economies, and political systems in ways no one can foresee. It could be the most disruptive development of all.
U.S. Military Benefit from Next Generation of Weapons
Thomas Kafka
Time marches on, and those who can take advantage of generational changes stand to benefit, while those who remain stuck in the past will soon find themselves obsolete.
Think of how that looks in the workforce. “Four generations—baby boomers, Generation X, millennials, and Generation Z—coexist in today’s workplace,” the Marsh McLennan Agency writes. “Employers are tasked with understanding and managing each cohort’s unique expectations and needs, delivering a workplace experience and benefits package that keeps them engaged and validated.” Those generational differences are a strength.
Employers are not forcing Gen Z to use the steel filing cabinets that greeted Boomers when they entered the workforce. The new technology that younger workers are skilled at is an advantage, and employers are exploiting that advantage to race forward.
There should be a similar approach in national defense. It is time for the Pentagon and White House to move ahead with the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. Instead, too many are trying to cling to the fifth generation of weapons, as represented by the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program.
Ukraine Strikes Distant Russian Region for First Time
Andrew Stanton
Using drones, Ukraine this week hit a Russian region hundreds of miles from the border for the first time.
The drone strike targeted the Zenit oil depot in Russia's Kirov region on Wednesday, reported The Kyiv Independent, an online Ukrainian newspaper. Russia shot down two of the drones, while three others fell and started a fire in a nearby town.
There were no injuries reported, but the strike caused fires at two oil depots, according to the report.
The strike marks the first time Ukraine has attacked the Kirov region, which is more than 700 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border, since the war began more than two years ago, the newspaper said.
Kirov Governor Alexander Sokolov said there was no damage or disruption to operations after the strike, reported The Moscow Times, an online newspaper.
The Crumbling Foundations of American Strength
Amy Zegart
When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appeared imminent in early 2022, U.S. intelligence officials were so confident that Russian tanks would roll quickly to victory that staff evacuated the U.S. embassy in Kyiv. Based on traditional measures of power, the intelligence assessment made sense. In 2021, Russia ranked fifth in the world in defense spending, whereas Ukraine was a distant 36th, behind Thailand and Belgium. Yet more than two years later, Russia and Ukraine are still fighting their brutal war to a standstill.
The Misguided Emphasis on U.S. Political Campaign Hacks
Gavin Wilde
The United States currently has over three dozen active, ongoing national emergencies on issues ranging from transnational narco-trafficking to political repression in Belarus. One of them, initially declared by former president Donald Trump in 2018, is due to be renewed by the White House in coming weeks: It addresses foreign interference in U.S. elections. The original executive order, which deems “the unauthorized accessing of election and campaign infrastructure” and “the covert distribution of propaganda and disinformation” as an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security, gained renewed urgency in August when Iran attempted to hack the accounts of the U.S. presidential candidates’ advisers.
However, as this particular emergency stretches into a seventh year, which aspects of the threat truly remain unusual and extraordinary? More critically, the latest hacking attempt offers a reason to question the wisdom of linking the technical mechanics of the vote and the integrity of the campaigns themselves under a single “election security” umbrella.
Will Ukraine’s Incursion Into Russia Change the Trajectory of the War
Isaac Chotiner
Less than a month ago, Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, overwhelming Russian border defenses and taking hundreds of soldiers captive. The move has boosted Ukrainian spirits during a year in which Russia has made steady gains on the battlefield. Vladimir Putin has not responded with any significant counterassaults—surely to the relief of Ukraine’s Western allies, who had worried that any Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil could be met with a devastating response. But Putin’s next moves remain uncertain, as does the effect this attack will have on the Russian public’s perceptions of the war, which is now in its third year.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, founded, in 2018, R. Politik, a political-analysis firm, which is based in France. I recently reached out to Stanovaya, who is more comfortable corresponding in English via e-mail; we exchanged a few rounds of questions and answers. Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below. In it, we discuss whether Putin truly has any red lines, why the Ukrainian incursion may be less of a threat to Putin than it appears, and the odds for any sort of negotiated end to the war.
There have been many events—economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West, initial Ukrainian successes on the battlefield—that have made people think Putin might need to change course. He hasn’t. Do you have any reason to think this latest incursion is different?
America Is More Desperate for a Cease-Fire Than Israel and Hamas
Anchal Vohra
Last weekend’s negotiations in Cairo for a cease-fire in Gaza collapsed as both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas’s leadership refused to budge on key differences. An Arab official aware of the ongoing negotiations told Foreign Policy that the technical teams are meeting in Doha this week but that he didn’t expect a cease-fire “anytime soon.”
Could Civil War Erupt in America?
Ravi Agrawal
Whenever the United States encounters a tragedy, politicians and commentators find themselves reaching for a lazy platitude: “This is not America.” In other words, bad things don’t happen here—they happen there.
Exploring Ukraine’s Future: Alternative Scenarios
Frank Hoffman
Wise leaders recognize that history does not follow a fixed linear path, and that the greater the uncertainty, the greater the value of examining alternative futures. The use (and the abuse) of scenarios is well established in the corporate world. Scenarios are used to explore the range of possible futures in the defense-planning business, as they help address the plausible multiple futures that policymakers may have to face. This article addresses potentially troubling scenarios involving the Russo-Ukrainian war that will impact US policy in the near future.
As the noted futurist Peter Schwartz stresses, scenario planning is purpose-built for uncertain times. Scenarios are not predictions, instead they are an antidote against false certainty and presumption predictions by policymakers. They best serve as a catalyst for serious reflection about critical assumptions. This prepares decision-makers for inevitable surprises that may arise, making their institutions more resilient and responsive. I fear the war in Ukraine will not continue as a stalemate for long, and US decision-makers need to be prepared to adapt quickly to changing circumstances.
There has been a proliferation of scenario-based assessments about Ukraine recently, indicating a high degree of uncertainty in today’s security environment. Strategic analysts at the Stimson Center have explored scenarios centered around a US retrenchment from Europe. A European think tank has posited six “scary policy scenarios” anticipating a change in the US government. Another excellent product was produced by the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in Brussels titled Shades of Grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and Global Order.
Ukraine in Kursk: a lesson in strategic audacity
Mick Ryan
The Ukrainian attack into Kursk in Russia, now into its third week, was a tactical and operational surprise for the Russians. There are many reasons for this, including Russia not assembling all the available pieces of intelligence to anticipate the Ukrainian attack, the Ukrainian deception plan, and a failure of humility on the part of Putin’s regime and military.
The Ukrainians have also surprised their supporters in the West. This was in large part because Ukraine deliberately withheld details of the Kursk attack to preserve operational security, maximise its chances of achieving surprise and shock against the Russians, guard against the inflated expectations of the failed 2023 counteroffensive and avoid second guessing by talkative, risk-adverse bureaucrats in the West.
Ukraine has shown that, fortunately, strategic audacity is not entirely dead in democratic nations.
In early August, reports emerged of a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast. For the first 24 hours, most observers – and the Russian high command – assumed that this was just another small-scale, unconventional Ukrainian operations of the kind it has mounted twice into Belgorod.
Pentagon’s CJADC2 dreams ‘very aspirational’ right now, Marine Corps general says
Lee Ferran
As hard as the military services have been working for years towards the Pentagon’s dream of an all-seeing, all-connected battle network, inside the Marine Corps it’s all looking “very aspirational at best, right now,” according to a senior Marine officer.
“Within our own service, if we’re trying to get unit A to talk to unit B in the same organization, sometimes we struggle,” said Brig. Gen. William Wilburn, Jr., currently serving as the deputy director for Combat Support at the National Security Agency. “When we have a joint exercise [and] we bring in a different service, the shortcomings are even more glaring. … It’s going to be even harder when we’re trying to talk to our coalition partners.
“So it’s a goal for the Marine Corps. We’re driving toward that goal. We’ve made some strides, but we started first making sure within our own organization that we can talk,” he said on a panel at the Intelligence and National Security Alliance summit here Tuesday.
Haiti’s Window of Opportunity
Renata Segura and Diego Da Rin
In late July, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield visited Haiti and sounded an upbeat note. “I do have a sense of hope,” she said at a press conference, citing the “many people here on the ground” who were “working every day to create a better future for the Haitian people.” She was referring, in part, to the roughly 400 Kenyan police officers who have arrived in Port-au-Prince as part of an international peacekeeping force that is eventually projected to number 2,500. The hope is that this UN Security Council–approved mission—formally referred to as the Multinational Security Support mission (MSS)—will allow Haiti to assert control over the country’s gangs, which have established de facto control over much of the capital’s neighborhoods and plunged the country into a dramatic humanitarian crisis. “This mission has opened a door to progress,” Thomas-Greenfield said.
Haiti could certainly use more progress. Since even before President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July 2021, the country has been suffering from intense violence. In the past three years, around 12,000 people have been killed, and some 600,000 have been displaced across the country. Gangs have established control or influence over around 80 percent of Port-au-Prince and have been spreading their presence to other regions.
Cost-benefit of European mass migration: mostly just crime and billions spent on welfare
Ralph Schoellhammer
Source LinkWe need to redefine the term terrorism. After 9/11 a common assertion was that, while terrorism certainly is tragic, the risk of dying in a car accident was still significantly higher than in a terrorist attack. Twenty-three years have passed since Al-Qaeda attacked the United States, and despite the threats made by the late Osama bin Laden and his followers, there has been no other attack of such dimensions. Yet somehow the sense of insecurity has not disappeared, and as it turned out violent terrorism is only a symptom of a much broader issue.
The comparison with traffic accidents was always frivolous. Accidents are by nature tragic because nobody involved wants them to happen. Even reckless drivers or careless car manufacturers do not intentionally plan to kill people, and if it happens, they do not celebrate it. Therefore, most people accept the risks of traffic as an acceptable trade-off compared with all the benefits that modern transportation entails. Although accidents involving cars could be brought down to zero via banning cars, nobody would seriously entertain such a measure. The conveniences brought by the automobile far exceed our fear of the risk that also comes with it.
In Europe, a growing number of people is now asking which conveniences have been achieved by mass-immigration from non-Western countries, and what are the countervailing benefits that justify the ever-growing risks that come with it. A cost-benefit analysis of the kind of migration Europe is experiencing at the moment reveals that it is almost all cost, with hardly any benefits.
Technofascism: The Government Pressured Tech Companies To Censor Users – OpEd
John and Nisha Whitehead
Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Meta, has finally admitted what we knew all along: Facebook conspired with the government to censor individuals expressing “disapproved” views about the COVID-19 pandemic.
Zuckerberg’s confession comes in the wake of a series of court rulings that turn a blind eye to the government’s technofascism.
In a 2-1 decision in Children’s Health Defense v. Meta, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed a lawsuit brought by Children’s Health Defense against Meta Platforms for restricting CHD’s posts, fundraising, and advertising on Facebook following communications between Meta and federal government officials.
In a unanimous decision in the combined cases of NetChoice v. Paxton and Moody v. NetChoice, the U.S. Supreme Court avoided ruling on whether the states could pass laws to prohibit censorship by Big Tech companies on social media platforms such as Facebook, TikTok, and YouTube.
And in a 6-3 ruling in Murthy v. Missouri , the Supreme Court sidestepped a challenge to the federal government’s efforts to coerce social media companies into censoring users’ First Amendment expression.
We Are All Agents: The Future of Human-AI Collaboration
Thom Hawkins
If you could invite anyone to a dinner party, alive or dead, who would it be? Ghandi? Albert Einstein? Dorothy Parker? Just imagine the conversation! Walter Landor did, in the 1820s, in a series of published “Imaginary Conversations.” In these dialogues, Socrates talks with Cicero, Shakespeare with Ben Jonson, and Michelangelo with Raphael. Landor (as did others who worked in this form) put in the effort to represent the figures appropriate to their respective personalities and philosophical stances, like a fantasy league for intellectuals.
Today, we can prompt a large language model (LLM) and, assuming that the corpus it was trained on includes work by and about the selected individuals, it can create a passable dialogue in seconds. (Thanks anyway for your labors, Walter—you could have saved yourself the effort if you simply waited two hundred years.) The result won’t necessarily generate new insights—yet—but the models are improving daily.
New Research Finds Stark Global Divide in Ownership of Powerful AI Chips
Billy Perrigo
When we think of the “cloud,” we often imagine data floating invisibly in the ether. But the reality is far more tangible: the cloud is located in huge buildings called data centers, filled with powerful, energy-hungry computer chips. Those chips, particularly graphics processing units (GPUs), have become a critical piece of infrastructure for the world of AI, as they are required to build and run powerful chatbots like ChatGPT.
As the number of things you can do with AI grows, so does the geopolitical importance of high-end chips—and where they are located in the world. The U.S. and China are competing to amass stockpiles, with Washington enacting sanctions aimed at preventing Beijing from buying the most cutting-edge varieties. But despite the stakes, there is a surprising lack of public data on where exactly the world’s AI chips are located.
A new peer-reviewed paper, shared exclusively with TIME ahead of its publication, aims to fill that gap. “We set out to find: Where is AI?” says Vili Lehdonvirta, the lead author of the paper and a professor at Oxford University’s Internet Institute. Their findings were stark: GPUs are highly concentrated in only 30 countries in the world, with the U.S. and China far out ahead. Much of the world lies in what the authors call “Compute Deserts:” areas where there are no GPUs for hire at all.
ACE Calls for More Air Bases. Can Air Force and Army Find a Way to Defend Them All?
Chris Gordon
The U.S. Air Force’s plan to operate from an expanded network of bases around the Pacific is facing a familiar but fundamental challenge: how to protect those locations from a Chinese missile attack.
Service leaders have wholeheartedly embraced the concept of Agile Combat Employment that calls for more operating locations, even those that are austere or remote. The idea is to make it more difficult for China to target American airpower in a potential fight, as the Air Force moves its planes from base to base.
But since China boasts a growing arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles that could put many airfields within its reach, shifting aircraft from base to base is only part of the solution. The service also needs a way to protect its fleet and its Airmen on the ground.
“I would feel more confident if we had a more robust, active base defense, quite frankly,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin told reporters recently. “That’s one of those where we’ve been working with the Army, and that’s something that the Department has taken on as a joint requirement that we need to improve our base defenses.”
2 September 2024
How the Tigers Got Their Stripes: A Case Study of the LTTE’s Rise to Power
Kate Cronin-Furman & Mario Arulthas
Crossing into LTTE-controlled territory in 2005 presented a stark contrast with the inefficient operations on the Sri Lankan side of the border. LTTE immigration officials checked passports, issued travel passes, and confirmed payment of customs duties in a matter of minutes.Footnote1 Once approved, the visitor entered Tamil Eelam, where the full-blown border service was matched by a courts system, police force, and civil administration.
Along with their operation of a remarkably robust proto-state, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE, often referred to as the Tamil Tigers) are known for their sophisticated military operation, which included an effective naval wing as well as a nascent air force, and for their innovative use of violence, including both suicide bombings and cyber-attacks. The Tigers’ stunning success as an insurgent organization (until their equally stunning defeat) encourages a teleological story of their origins, which is reinforced by scholarly accounts of the era. As Sharika Thiranagama observes: “The sparse literature on the period treats popular militancy through discussions of the LTTE, which has led to accounts treating the period only as part of the LTTE’s rise to power and equating the LTTE with popular militancy and with Tamils at large.”Footnote2 But in fact, Tamil militancy in the 1980s was characterized by a profusion of competing organizations, of which the LTTE was neither the biggest nor the best armed.
In the following pages, we trace the LTTE’s emergence as the dominant Tamil militant group. On its face, the question “how did the LTTE consolidate power over its rivals” is a straightforward one. But in any context marked by intense political violence, establishing a historical record is contentious enough, never mind attempting to uncover the reasons events unfolded the way they did. And as the Tamil polity, both in Sri Lanka and the diaspora, continues to grapple with what nationalism looks like after military defeat, the question of the Tigers’ legacy is a vexed one.b Department of P
THE NEW WAY OF LIMITED WARFARE: The Value of the Afghan Model of Warfare After the Fight Against ISIS
Captain Tijs Althuizen, MA, and Professor Martijn Kitzen, PhD
INTRODUCTION
Today’s international security environment confronts the United States and its partners with unprecedented challenges. Escalating competition with China and Russia, growing assertiveness of regional powers like Iran and North Korea, the persevering threat of violent non-state actors, and even a major war on European soil present multiple dilemmas that can only be faced with the help of a versatile strategic toolkit. Current military operations rely heavily on traditional deterrence strategy. China’s military buildup and the conventional nature of much of the fighting in Ukraine as of 2024 reinforces this posture. Yet this covers only one side of the multifaceted threats we are facing. This fact especially reverberates in the special operations community, which finds itself engaged in both countering gray zone activities and the enduring fight against violent extremist organizations. This monograph seeks to contribute to the development of a broader strategic palette by analyzing the importance and utility of the so-called Afghan model (AM) as a way for achieving political ends through the employment of limited means.
Kursk Incursion Draws Delayed Response From Beijing
Arran Hope
On August 6, Ukrainian forces invaded Kursk Oblast inside the borders of the Russian Federation (Institute for the Study of War [ISW], August 6). This marked the first time that Ukraine has launched an offensive campaign into Russian territory. The operation was at first a closely guarded secret, leading to uncertainty about the nature and scale of the incursion, as well as about its objectives. Over two weeks later, a clearer picture has emerged. While the operation is still ongoing, by August 20, Ukrainian troops had advanced 17–22 miles into Kursk and taken control of hundreds of square miles of Russian territory. Over 120,000 civilians have been evacuated from the Kursk region, though bridges and transport links have been destroyed, severing supply lines for Russian combatants. So far, the operation has been fairly successful, with large numbers of Russian combat units surrendering to the advancing Ukrainian forces (Comment is Freed, August 21). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has now stated that the operation aims to create a “buffer zone” within Russia, with the hopes of using this as part of any future negotiations (People’s Daily Online, August 19). For its part, Russia is yet to formulate a clear response. State media continues to downplay the invasion, and despite Putin’s rhetoric about responding “decisively,” its forces are apparently continuing to focus on the main battlegrounds in Eastern Ukraine. This might slowly be changing however, as senior officials begin to articulate a stance. For instance, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Telegram this week, “There will be NO MORE NEGOTIATIONS UNTIL THE COMPLETE DEFEAT OF THE ENEMY!” (Tass, August 21; Telegram/Medvedev, August 21).
Washington and Beijing Don’t Understand Each Other’s Fentanyl Positions
Yanzhong Huang and Marcel Arsenault
The United States is grappling with a major fentanyl crisis. Of the more than 100,000 drug-related deaths recorded in 2023, approximately 70 percent are attributed to fentanyl and other synthetic opioids. This staggering number of deaths far exceeds the annual fatalities from car accidents (almost 41,000) and gun-related violence (roughly 43,000). The amount of powdered fentanyl seized has increased by about 100 percent in the last two years. Fentanyl misuse has emerged as a top election issue, with 80 percent of swing-state voters considering it important in their voting decisions, outranking topics such as abortion, climate change, and international conflicts.
The Future Faces of Irregular Warfare: Great Power Competition in the 21st Century
Varsha Koduvayur, James Kiras, PhD & Richard Newton, PhD
Introduction
In October 2022, Congress created the Irregular Warfare Center (IW Center) to serve as a central mechanism for developing the irregular warfare knowledge of the Department of Defense (DoD) and to advance the understanding of irregular warfare (IW) concepts, and doctrine, in collaboration with key partners and allies.4 Two of the five tasks assigned to the Center addressed facilitating whole-of-government and whole-of-society research related to the non-military aspects of irregular conflict. More importantly, though, Congress made the point that the DoD would occupy a supporting (emphasis added) role when it came to interagency activities related to strategic competition short of war, a significant reorientation of emphasis that should help the department prioritize resources and direct efforts related to strategic competition.5 This book is the IW Center’s first research contribution to assist that effort and to tackle the first of DoD’s responsibilities toward IW: “make permanent the mindset and capabilities necessary to succeed in its current irregular warfare mission sets.”6
It should be expected that after two exhausting decades of counterinsurgency in South Asia and the Middle East and a global counterterrorism campaign, our nation’s security establishment is aching to do something different. Something different, it should be noted, that is more in line with the “business as usual” approach and institutional preferences of its Armed Service components.7 Readers who can recall the decade after the Vietnam War ended, 1975-1985, will remember a similar strategic reorientation. Then, the United States shifted its defensive focus to AirLand Battle, and that doctrine’s near-singular emphasis on deterring war with the Soviet Union.8 Meanwhile, in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, the Balkans, and across Asia, “small wars,” often proxy wars sponsored by the two superpowers competing for influence, sprang up like mushrooms after a spring rain.
Chinese hackers break into American government and military accounts
Brittany Chain For Dailymail.Com
Chinese hackers believed to be backed by the government have gained access to American government and military accounts, according to a new report.
These attacks are 'unusually aggressive and sophisticated' and have allowed hackers to gain access to at least two major internet service providers with a combined reach of millions of customers, The Washington Post reports.
The revelation comes as the United States and China take steps toward repairing their damaged relationship, with Jake Sullivan, U.S. national security adviser, travelling to the northern outskirts of Beijing for a two day meeting with Wang Yi, a senior foreign policy official for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
'President Biden has been very clear in his conversations with President Xi that he is committed to managing this important relationship responsibly,' Sullivan told Wang before the talks got underway.
Meanwhile back home, it is understood Chinese-backed hackers have been spying on Americans via their internet service providers.
Top Biden Aide Visits China to Reinforce U.S. Strategy
David Pierson
Making another heavy push to work with China in the waning months of the Biden administration, Jake Sullivan arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for talks aimed at showing that the United States and China can manage their differences.
The U.S. national security adviser began his fifth meeting in less than 18 months with China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, as the Biden administration seeks to reinforce its strategy on China despite uncertainty over the future of American foreign policy.
There is much to talk about — but probably little on which they will agree.
Mr. Sullivan plans to discuss working with China on limiting the spread of fentanyl and expanding high-level military contacts. He will also stress the United States’ position on Taiwan and its concerns about China’s support of Russia.
China indicated it would raise its own objections during the talks — including over America’s support for Taiwan, the island democracy Beijing claims, and U.S. controls on exports of technology to China.
Yemen's Houthis will let salvage crews access oil tanker they set ablaze in Red Sea
Michelle Nichols and Mohamed Ghobari
Yemen's Houthi group has agreed to allow tugboats and rescue ships to reach a damaged crude oil tanker in the Red Sea, Iran's mission to the United Nations said on Wednesday, after the Iran-aligned militants attacked the Greek-flagged vessel last week.
The Sounion tanker is carrying 150,000 tonnes, or 1 million barrels, of crude oil and poses an environmental hazard, shipping officials said. Any spill has the potential to be among the largest from a ship in recorded history.
"Several countries have reached out to ask Ansarullah (the Houthis), requesting a temporary truce for the entry of tugboats and rescue ships into the incident area," Iran's U.N. mission in New York said.
"In consideration of humanitarian and environmental concerns, Ansarullah has consented to this request," it said.
Yemen's Houthis spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam told Reuters on Wednesday there is no temporary truce and the group only agreed to allow the towing of oil tanker Sounion after several international parties contacted the group.
The Sounion was targeted last week by multiple projectiles off Yemen's port city of Hodeidah. There have been seemingly conflicting reports about oil escaping from the ship. Reuters has not independently confirmed if the oil is leaking or spilling from the vessel.
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