Speed is the New Stealth-The Role of Hypersonic Systems

Paper no. 5638 Dated 28-Jan-2014

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1447

Guest Column by Muhammad Nawaz Khan

A new debate has been started in the strategic thinking and discourse, on publishing the story that appeared in the Washington Free Beacon dated on January 13, 2014, specifying that on January 9, 2014.

China held the first of what could be a series of tests to check on the speed of its new experimental hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) which would approach its target at a velocity of up to 10 times the speed of sound. Basically dubbed as WU-14 by Pentagon, this development interpreted to be designed for mounting on intercontinental ballistic missiles, as when the hypersonic vehicle is detached from the missile, it could travel as fast as Mach 10 from near space on the way to striking its target. Beauty of the HGV is that it can perform hypersonic precision strikes while maintaining a relatively low altitude and flat trajectory, making it far less vulnerable to missile defences.

The hypersonic vehicle represents a major step forward in China’s strategic nuclear and conventional military and missile programmes. It represents a significant military advance for Beijing. With the integration of strategic analysis and planning into technical research, China’s pursuit of hypersonic and high-precision weaponry promises to be faster and more focused than that associated with its previous anti-satellite and ballistic missile defence related research and programmes. China’s military affairs specialists believe that the hypersonic vehicle test is a significant milestone and appears to be a part of China’s development of warfare weaponry that would assist China’s overall weaker military forces to defeat the more technologically advanced militaries.

Whereas, Washington claimed that this artillery is aimed to distribute warheads through United States (US) missile defences. Rather, this hypersonic missile delivery vehicle has the capability of penetrating US missile defence system and delivering nuclear warheads with record breaking speeds. American defence strategists are responding to the China’s test in a way that this hypersonic glide vehicle will travel from the edge of space at speeds ranging between Mach 8 and Mach 12, or between 6,084 miles per hour and 9,127 miles per hour. Such speeds would challenge the current system of US missile defences, including a combination of long-range interceptors, medium-range Sea and land-based interceptors, and interceptors designed to hit incoming missiles closer to targets.

Why the First World War Matters for Japan

Abe’s reference at Davos could draw Japan’s attention to some useful lessons from that era.

By Yong Kwon

January 28, 2014
http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/why-the-first-world-war-matters-for-japan/

Responding to a question on the conceivability of a war between the two largest economies in Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made waves at Davos last week when he compared ongoing tensions between Japan and China to Anglo-German relations in the period leading up to the First World War. Although a sobering reminder that the world does not resemble the neo-liberal utopian dream of Thomas Friedman, this reply was a poorly timed statement that will serve only to put further distance between two countries whose relations are already frayed following Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine and Beijing’s unilateral declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone around the disputed islets in the East China Sea.

At the same time, there is more to the seemingly anachronistic analogy than first meets the eye. The war in 1914 played a critical role in informing the nascent Japanese Empire about its strategic limitations in the modern era. It was the lessons from the German defeat in particular that emboldened Japan to pursue territory in mainland China and sowed the seeds for the discord that has relentlessly stymied closer ties with China in recent years. Indeed, Abe drawing attention to the First World War can be seen as equal parts caution to Beijing and an admission that Japan still struggles from the same strategic limitations it faced a hundred years ago.

Total War in Europe and Empire in Asia

Watching the protracted European conflict that followed the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, many officers in the Japanese military were alarmed by the changing nature of modern war. Throughout the first decade of the twentieth century, strategists had concentrated on mobilizing troops as quickly as possible, but not on the mustering of the national economy to support a prolonged war. The defeat of Germany proved that modern wars would inevitably involve attrition and that reliance on other countries for critical resources in the war effort would only guarantee defeat. For Japan, which had adopted sweeping economic and political reforms to ensure its sovereignty in the eyes of Western powers, this new insecurity fed directly into its growing impulse for an empire.

Many imperial policymakers believed that ensuring Japan’s economic security meant taking advantage of the mineral resources of Manchuria. This brought the country into direct conflict with China and therein lay the critical contradiction in Japan’s policies: acquiring the territory necessary to ensure economic security in the event of a prolonged war in the near future required Tokyo to wage a war that exhausted the empire’s resources and industrial capabilities. Moreover, violating the Open Door policy in China inevitably caused friction with Washington. The prospect of fighting the United States forced Tokyo to consider acquiring even more territory to secure the resources it felt it needed. These were wars that, according to Michael Barnhart, “made first self-sufficiency and then national security itself impossible.”

New Japanese Teaching Guidelines Treat Senkakus, Kurils, Takeshima As 'Integral Territories'

Japan’s new teaching guidelines will add tension to an already fraught region.

By Ankit Panda

January 28, 2014

In a move that is sure to increase tensions in an already fraught region, Japan moved to revise its middle and high school teaching guidelines to refer to the disputed islets at Takeshima (known as Dokdo in South Korea) and Senkaku (known as Diaoyu in China) as “integral territories of Japan,” according to Japanese Education Minister Hakubun Shimonura.

Shimonura added, “As we are striving to develop human resources who can do well globally, it is only natural to teach students about our territories in a correct manner.” He brushed off the implications for Japan’s relations with its neighbors, noting that Japan would “provide polite explanations for both China and South Korea.”

South Korea immediately summoned the Japanese ambassador to Seoul upon learning of the news, and foreign ministry spokesman Cho Tai-young condemned the Japanese policy. Cho said that South Korea’s government ”strongly condemns this [action], and demands that they withdraw this immediately. If the Japanese government does not follow this, our government will take firm measures that corresponds to this right away.”

China responded to the policy via a regularly scheduled Foreign Ministry press conference. Spokesperson Hua Chunying said “We express grave concerns over this, and we have lodged solemn representations with the Japanese side.” She added, “ We urge the Japanese side to respect historical facts, stop provocations, teach the younger generation with a correct historical perspective and improve its relations with neighbors with concrete actions.”

Additionally, a Xinhua editorial argues that Japan’s “fact-twisting manuals … will confuse Japanese students about what the true history is.” The editorial ties the textbook revision directly to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s nationalist agenda for Japan. The editorial argues that “such whitewashing and fact-twisting tricks will be bound to make the path for Japan to improve ties with its neighbors more bumpy, not mention the trust- and friendship-building in the long run, as Japan’s younger generations, the future of a nation, are kept from truth by the reckless Abe administration.”

The Franchising of Al Qaeda

By BEN HUBBARDJAN. 25, 2014

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/26/sunday-review/the-franchising-of-al-qaeda.html?_r=0

BEIRUT, Lebanon — THE letter bore the corporate tone of a C.E.O. resolving a turf dispute between two middle managers. In formal prose and numbered lists, Ayman al-Zawahri, the leader of Al Qaeda, directed one of the group’s affiliates in Syria to withdraw to Iraq and leave operations in Syria to someone else.

The response was unequivocal. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, declared that his fighters would remain in Syria “as long as we have a vein that pumps and an eye that blinks.”

It was the first time in the history of the world’s most notorious terrorist organization that one of the affiliates had publicly broken with the international leadership, and the news sent shock waves through the online forums where jihadists meet. In no uncertain terms, ISIS had gone rogue.

That split, in June, was a watershed moment in the vast decentralization of Al Qaeda and its ideology since 9/11. As the power of the central leadership created by Osama bin Laden has declined, the vanguard of violent jihad has been taken up by an array of groups in a dozen countries across Africa and the Middle East, attacking Western interests in Algeria and Libya, training bombers in Yemen, seizing territory in Syria and Iraq, and gunning down shoppers in Kenya.

Al Qaeda’s Hot Spots

Countries where analysts say Al Qaeda or related groups have been known to operate. Militants control or have been active in areas around the cities shown.

What links these groups, experts say, is no longer a centralized organization but a loose ideology that any group can appropriate and apply as it sees fit while gaining the mystique of a recognized brand name. In short, Al Qaeda today is less a corporation than a vision driving a diverse spread of militant groups.

Daniel Pipes: The sick Middle East

Source Link

Daniel Pipes | January 28, 2014

More from Daniel Pipes

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/01/28/daniel-pipes-the-sick-middle-east/

The recent fall of Fallujah, Iraq, to an Al-Qaeda-linked group provides an unwelcome reminder of the American resources and lives devoted in 2004 to 2007 to control the city — all that effort expended and nothing to show for it. Similarly, outlays of hundreds of billions of dollars to modernize Afghanistan did not prevent the release of 72 prisoners who have attacked Americans.

These two examples point to a larger conclusion: maladies run so deep in the Middle East (minus remarkable Israel) that outside powers cannot remedy them. Here’s a fast summary:

Water is running out. A dam going up on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia threatens to substantially cut Egypt’s main water supply for years. Syria and Iraq suffer from water crises because the Euphrates and Tigris rivers are drying up. Growing the narcotic qat plant absorbs so much of Yemen’s limited water supplies that Sana’a may be the first modern capital city to be abandoned because of drought. Ill considered wheat-growing schemes in Saudi Arabia depleted aquifers.

Poor schools, repressive governments and archaic social mores assure abysmal rates of economic growth. Starvation haunts Egypt, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan

On the flip side, the poorly constructed Mosul Dam in Iraq could collapse, drowning half a million immediately and leaving many more stranded without electricity or food. Sewage runs rampant in Gaza. Many countries suffer from electricity blackouts, especially in the oppressive summer heat that routinely reaches 120 degrees Fahrenheit.

People are also running out. After experiencing a huge and disruptive youth bulge, the region’s birth rate is collapsing. Iran, for example, has undergone the steepest decline in birth rates of any country ever recorded, going from 6.6 births per woman in 1977 to 1.6 births in 2012. This has created what one analyst calls an “apocalyptic panic” that fuels Tehran’s aggression.

Poor schools, repressive governments and archaic social mores assure abysmal rates of economic growth. Starvation haunts Egypt, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan.

US Special Representative for North Korea Visits Beijing

http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/us-special-representative-for-north-korea-visits-beijing/

Glyn Davies is in Asia to discuss the Pyongyang problem with Chinese, South Korean, and Japanese leaders.

By Shannon Tiezzi

January 28, 2014

U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Glyn Davies is in China Monday and Tuesday for talks with Chinese officials. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Davies will hold talks with Executive Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui and China’s own Special Representative on Korean Peninsula Affairs Wu Dawei. After leaving Beijing, Davies will spend January 29-30 in Seoul and January 30-31 in Tokyo, according to the U.S. State Department’s press release on the trip.

For Davies, the trip might seem like “déjà vu all over again,” as Yogi Berra would say. Davies made similar tours of East Asia in Septemberand November 2013. During both trips, Davies was seeking to build consensus on how to move forward over North Korea’s controversial nuclear program. Little has changed between then and now, except possibly for the worse — thesurprise execution of Kim Jong-Un’s uncle raised questions over both the regime’s stability and its future direction, and there is some evidence that North Korea may be preparing for another nuclear or missile test. Meanwhile, U.S. citizen Kenneth Bae remains imprisoned in North Korea, carrying out a sentence of 15 years’ of hard labor (although his recent appearance on camera hints that Pyongyang may be willing to negotiate his release).

All in all, the signs are not great for diplomacy, despite recent overtures from North Korea to its southern neighbor (including during a press conference by North Korea’s UN ambassador Sin Son-Ho). In fact, as the Associated Press has reported, Davies’ visit could be taken as a discouraging sign given that China’s Wu Dawei was supposed to visit the United States. That visit was cancelled, potentially a signal of Beijing’s pessimism over such talks.

China and the U.S., in particular, tend to rehash the same ground whenever they discuss the North Korea issue. At heart, the two countries have different interests in the peninsula — ultimately, the U.S. would like to see the Kim regime gone, while China places great value on North Korea as a buffer state. Beijing and Washington do agree on the goal of Pyongyang’s denuclearization, given the threat that North Korean nuclear missiles pose to U.S. allies in the region as well as the possibility that they will spark an East Asian arms race. However, even on this point of agreement, Beijing and Washington have different approaches for how to achieve their shared goal. Whereas the U.S. stresses sanctions in an attempt to force Pyongyang to cooperate, China’s leaders insist that only negotiations can be successful.

A Special Project with the New America Foundation and the Project on Middle East Political Science

January 28, 2014 

Morsi Stands Trial as Egyptian Army Backs Sisi Presidential Bid 

Former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has remained defiant as the trial over his jailbreak during the 2011 uprising opened Tuesday. The ousted president is being charged with collaborating with Hamas and Hezbollah to lead a mass escape from the Wadi al-Natrun prison and for killing prison officers. Morsi and several other defendants are being held in a soundproofed glass box for the trial. Nonetheless, the ousted leader shouted, "I am the president of the republic" and told the court "this trial is not legal." Though Morsi has refused to recognize the court, in a surprise move, he appointed a defense lawyer. Morsi is facing four criminal trials on separate charges, including inciting the killing of protesters during a December 2012 demonstration outside the presidential palace. Meanwhile, the Egyptian army has backed a presidential bid by Defense Minister Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. In a statement broadcast on state television Monday, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) called a presidential run by Sisi a "mandate and an obligation" requested by the "masses of honorable Egyptian people." The SCAF did not officially announce Sisi's candidacy, saying he would make the final decision "according to his conscience." According to a government source, Sisi will attend his last cabinet meeting Wednesday before resigning and announcing his presidential bid. 

Syria 

Syrian peace talks have resumed for a fourth day in Geneva despite a deadlock over the formation of a transitional administration and access for U.N. humanitarian aid convoys to besieged areas, specifically the city of Homs. Negotiations reportedly ended on Monday after the government delegation presented a "declaration of basic principles" that did not include a political transition. U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi admitted negotiations "hadn't produced much" to this point, and said that Tuesday's talks would focus on the Geneva communiqué that calls for a transitional administration. Brahimi also mentioned he hoped the parties would agree on concrete steps on humanitarian aid. According to the World Food Programme, the United Nations is prepared to deliver a month's worth of food to the Old City of Homs, where 2,500 people are reportedly trapped. The United States has accused the Syrian government of harming the negotiations by denying the delivery of aid to besieged areas of the country. Meanwhile, a second shipment of Syria's most toxic chemical weapons was exported on Monday from the port of Latakia, according to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the United Nations. The removal operation is behind schedule with a low estimate of five percent of the 600 tons of the most lethal chemical agents so far exported. 

Headlines 

Gunmen on a motorbike shot and killed senior Egyptian interior ministry official General Mohammad Saeed outside his home in Cairo Tuesday. 

Kofi Annan's group of "Elders" met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani Tuesday discussing the Syrian civil war and Tehran's contested nuclear program. 

The Pentagon announced plans to sell 24 Apache attack helicopters to Iraq after a congressional hurdle was removed Monday. 

Talks between the Libyan government and a federalist protest movement that has seized three major oil ports have reportedly advanced so that exports may be resumed within two weeks. 

Frames could sharpen Google Glass

January 29, 2014

Source Link

Google is adding prescription frames and new styles of detachable sunglasses to its computerised, Internet-connected goggles known as Glass.

The move comes as Google Inc. prepares to make Glass available to the general population later this year. Currently, Glass is available only to the tens of thousands of people who are testing and creating apps for it.

Glass hasn’t actually had glasses in its frame until now.

Glass is basically a small computer, with a camera and a display screen above the wearer’s right eye. The device sits roughly at eyebrow level, higher than where eyeglasses would go.

It lets wearers surf the Web, ask for directions and take photos or videos. Akin to wearing a smartphone without having to hold it in your hands, Glass also lets people read their email, share photos on Twitter and Facebook, translate phrases while travelling or partake in video chats. Glass follows some basic voice commands, spoken after the words “OK, Glass.”

The gadget itself is not changing with this announcement. Rather, Google plans to make various attachments available. Starting Tuesday, the Mountain View, Calif., company is offering four styles of prescription frames and two new types of shades available to its “explorers” the people who are trying out Glass. The frames will cost $225 and the shades, $150. That’s on top of the $1,500 price of Glass.

Users can take the frames to any vision care provider for prescription lenses, though Google says it is working with insurance provider Vision Service Plan to train eye-care providers around the U.S. on how to work with Glass. Google says some insurance plans may cover the cost of the frames.

Isabelle Olsson, the lead designer for Google Glass, says the new frames open the spectacles up to a larger audience. She demonstrated the new frameslast week at the Google Glass Basecamp, an airy loft on the eighth floor of New York City’s Chelsea Market. It’s one of the places where Glass users go to pick up their wares and learn how to use them. Walking in, visitors are greeted, of course, by a receptionist wearing Google Glass.

“We want as many people as possible to wear it,” she said. To that end, Glass’s designers picked four basic but distinct frame styles. On one end is a chunky “bold” style that stands out. On the other is a “thin” design to blend in as much as possible.

Ms Olsson said Google won’t be able to compete with the thousands of styles offered at typical eyeglasses stores. Instead, Glass’s designers looked at what types of glasses are most popular, what people wear the most and, importantly, what they look good in. The latter has been a constant challenge for the nascent wearable technology industry, especially for something like Google Glass, designed to be worn on your face. When Google unveiled Glass in a video nearly two years ago, it drew unfavourable comparisons to Bluetooth headsets, the trademarks of the fashion-ignorant technophile.

Angry Birds and 'leaky' phone apps targeted by NSA and GCHQ for user data

James Ball

theguardian.com, 

28 January 2014

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/27/nsa-gchq-smartphone-app-angry-birds-personal-data

• US and UK spy agencies piggyback on commercial data

• Details can include age, location and sexual orientation 

• Documents also reveal targeted tools against individual phones

GCHQ documents use Angry Birds – reportedly downloaded more than 1.7bn times – as a case study for app data collection.

The National Security Agency and its UK counterpart GCHQ have been developing capabilities to take advantage of "leaky" smartphone apps, such as the wildly popular Angry Birds game, that transmit users' private information across the internet, according to top secret documents.

The data pouring onto communication networks from the new generation of iPhone and Android apps ranges from phone model and screen size to personal details such as age, gender and location. Some apps, the documents state, can share users' most sensitive information such as sexual orientation – and one app recorded in the material even sends specific sexual preferences such as whether or not the user may be a swinger.

Many smartphone owners will be unaware of the full extent this information is being shared across the internet, and even the most sophisticated would be unlikely to realise that all of it is available for the spy agencies to collect.

U.S. Looks at Ways to Prevent Spying on NSA Spying

Source Link

January 28, 2014

By Stephen Braun

WASHINGTON (AP) -- As the Obama administration considers ending the storage of millions of phone records by the National Security Agency, the government is quietly funding research to prevent eavesdroppers from seeing whom the U.S. is spying on, The Associated Press has learned.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has paid at least five research teams across the country to develop a system for high-volume, encrypted searches of electronic records kept outside the government's possession. The project is among several ideas that could allow the government to store Americans' phone records with phone companies or a third-party organization, but still search them as needed.

Under the research, U.S. data mining would be shielded by secret coding that could conceal identifying details from outsiders and even the owners of the targeted databases, according to documents obtained by The Associated Press and interviews with researchers, corporate executives and government officials.

The administration has provided only vague descriptions about changes it is considering to the NSA's daily collection and storage of Americans' phone records, which are presently kept in NSA databanks. To resolve legal, privacy and civil liberties concerns, President Barack Obama this month ordered the attorney general and senior intelligence officials to recommend changes by March 28 that would allow the U.S. to identify suspected terrorists' phone calls without the government itself holding the phone records.

One federal review panel urged Obama to order phone companies or an unspecified third party to store the records; another panel said collecting the phone records was illegal and ineffective and urged Obama to abandon the program entirely.

Internal documents describing the Security and Privacy Assurance Research project do not cite the NSA or its phone surveillance program. But if the project were to prove successful, its encrypted search technology could enable the NSA to conduct secure searches while shifting storage of phone records from agency data banks to either phone companies or a third-party organization.

A DNI spokesman, Michael Birmingham, confirmed that the research was relevant to the NSA's phone records program. He cited "interest throughout the intelligence community" but cautioned that it may be some time before the technology is used.

The intelligence director's office is by law exempt from disclosing detailed budget figures, so it's unclear how much money the government has spent on the project, which is overseen by the DNI's Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity office. Birmingham said the research is aimed for use in a "situation where a large sensitive data set is held by one party which another seeks to query, preserving privacy and enforcing access policies."

10 Good Reasons to Save the A-10

January 27, 2014

By J. Furman Daniel, III

Source Link

As the FY15 defense budget is finalized and the fiscal pressure of sequestration endures, there has been informed speculation that the Air Force will seek to retire its A-10 Warthog fleet. Congress has already prevented such a move in the National Defense Authorization Act, but yet the fight continues. Last week, RCD featured a proposal to transfer the A-10 to the Army. This week, J. Furman Daniel, III offers ten good reasons to save the beloved A-10. 

1. It is proven

The A-10 is a tried and true design that has served our nation well. In an era of increasingly complex, expensive, and troubled weapons procurement, it is essential to have some systems that are solid and reliable. With only modest changes to the original design, the A-10 has been upgraded to meet the challenges of the future and deliver its trademark firepower, durability, survivability, and persistence to battlefield hotspots for decades to come.

2. It is cheap

The A-10 is and will continue to be cheap. While it is ugly, slow, and old fashioned, it remains the most cost effective way of delivering aerial firepower to the battlefield. While it is possible to drop ordinance and provide suppressive fire with other fighter platforms few would consider the F-22, F-35, F-15, or F-16 as ideal ways of performing this essential mission. In fact, the F-22 has been excluded from such missions and is in danger of becoming a “force in being” for “big wars” rather than an asset that can actually be used in the conflicts we are currently fighting. A rational force structure would retain the A-10 as the unglamorous but necessary “low” component of a “high-low mix” and would thus free our more expensive platforms for missions such as air superiority and strategic bombing that demand higher performance.

3. It is survivable

Especially in our wars of choice, the American public is notoriously casualty adverse. We will continue to send our brave men and women into harm’s way for the foreseeable future, so it essential to provide them with the best tools possible to allow them to complete their mission and return safely home. Survivability is the hallmark of the A-10 and many of our pilots owe their lives to its rugged construction. Other low cost options such as the Apache helicopter, Super Tucanos, and the Textron Scorpion do not have the total package of survivability of the A-10.

4. It does things that current aircraft, helicopters, and drones cannot do

The A-10 does a few things better than any other platform in existence. While ground pounding may not be glamorous, it is a function that will not simply go away. If the Air Force eliminates the A-10, it will replace the core competency with some combination of bad options. First, the military could have other fixed-wing aircraft filling the void, but (as described above) this would likely not be the most cost effective option. Second, we could increase the burden on helicopters to perform this task, but they would likely suffer from their inherent limits of speed, payload, and survivability. Finally, force planners could gamble that some as yet unproven combination of drones or smart artillery could provide this firepower for the battlefields of the future. In each of these scenarios, a significant risk is assumed and it remains unclear that the proposed solution could either accomplish the mission or do so at an acceptable cost in blood or treasure. Given the A-10’s demonstrated speed, maneuverability, ruggedness, redundant systems, and combat record, why take such risks?

5. Redundancy, Redundancy, Redundancy!

Unfortunately, the US military has a poor track record of predicting when, where, and how the next war will occur. Given this uncertainty and the costs of guessing wrong, the redundancy provided by the A-10 seems like a very good safety net provided at a very attractive cost. While all defense budgeting and planning assumes some degree of risk, it seems very premature to assume that this capability is no longer needed.

The True Forever War

Source Link

Technology, not policy, will make it easier for U.S. leaders to kill people, blow things up, and disrupt computer networks around the world.

BY MICAH ZENKO

JANUARY 24, 2014

In preparation for a recent talk, I spoke to a range of thinkers and practitioners in and out of government about the current relevance and applicability of the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF). The AUMF, which was passed by the House and Senate just three days after 9/11, gave the president a narrow mandate to use all necessary and appropriate force against those responsible for the terrorist attacks and to prevent future acts of international terrorism against the United States. Two points of agreement were repeated in my conversations: First, the legislation does not accurately reflect either the military or the political objectives for current counterterrorism operations, nor does it accurately reflect the intention of those who originally drafted and approved the measure in 2001. Second, it is unlikely that the AUMF will be repealed, and any congressional efforts to update its language would most likely result in an even more expansive mandate.

Many correctly highlight that the AUMF does not reflect the scope of the conflict that the United States is now engaged in, and that its elasticity assures that America will remain on a war footing in perpetuity. However, those concerned with the prospects of a "forever war" should be concerned less about the irrelevant post-9/11 legislative mandate, and more about the revolutionary expansion of military assets that have been made available to the president since then. These technologies and processes that have reduced the costs and risks of using force have permanently changed how Americans conceive of military operations. As killing people, blowing things up, and disrupting computer networks will only get easier, it is worthwhile to take stock of where we are today. 

Take for example aerial drones. On 9/11, the United States had 167 dronesin its arsenal, only a handful of which were capable of dropping bombs. As of December 2013, the Pentagon and CIA have an estimated 11,000 drones, roughly 350 to 400 of which are armed-capable. Beyond the mere volume of unmanned aerial systems, they are becoming larger and capable of loitering longer, containing vastly improved sensor packages, and carrying a greater variety and number of bombs. Unlike in 2001, America's armed drones can now be controlled by pilots in the United States via dedicated satellite bandwidth, and within three or four years, they will be flown from naval assets, making the need for host nations basing many missions unnecessary.

Subsequently, the inherent advantages that drones provide over all other weapons platforms have made them a first option. And what was developed between 1999 and 2001 to go after one individual, Osama bin Laden, has now been used an estimated 462 times to kill an estimated 3,600 suspected terrorists, militants, and civilians in countries with which the United States is not formally at war. 

Killing 3,600 people without losing one U.S. service member was unimaginable on 9/11.

Killing 3,600 people without losing one U.S. service member was unimaginable on 9/11. Now lethal missions by such unmanned systems are entirely routine -- and since President Barack Obama announced that he had "reformed" drone strikes in May 2013, they've gone largely unquestioned in Washington.

What Is the Asia 'Pivot'? Depends on Who's Talking

Jan. 28, 2014

By JOHN T. BENNETT

Source Link

Chinese missile destroyer Haikou docks in Hong Kong. US officials are debating the focus and level of commitment of the US Asia pivot. (Agence France-Presse)

WASHINGTON — The most striking aspect of the exchanges between senior Pentagon officials and lawmakers Tuesday was the rhetoric about the so-called “Asia pivot.”

The two sides might not have such a full-blown disconnect that it will hamper policy creation and fund allocation regarding an increased US focus in China’s backyard. But, in public at least, the executive and legislative branches have emphasized different issues.

As they did for several hours Tuesday morning before the House Armed Services Committee, Pentagon officials used government-speak to describe the Obama administration’s “pivot” away from the Middle East and toward the Asia-Pacific region.

They used words such as “building partnership capacity,” “updating our operational concepts,” “force flow” and getting “our most capable capabilities” into the region.

The officials played up diplomatic efforts, a need to “modernize our partnerships” and “enhance military-to-military relations across the region.” And they peppered their opening statements with such buzzwords as “interoperability” like an over-seasoned steak.

When the red lights lit up on HASC members’ microphones, the focus often was much different.

Vice chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, flatly said he sees an “arms race” in the region that includes China, the US and a list of American allies wary of China.

HASC Seapower and Projection Forces subcommittee chairman Rep. Randy Forbes, R-Va., asked about China’s naval buildup.

Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., said it seems American allies in the region are “hedging their bets” by building up their own military due to concerns that US military budget cuts could prevent America from saving them from Chinese aggression. (DoD officials agreed, with defacto Pentagon policy chief Michael Lumpkin saying, “I think that’s a good thing.”)

Forbes appeared to pick up on the officials’ focus on non-combat parts of the pivot, warning those things would “take years.”

Several, including Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., questioned whether the US has enough military forces positioned in the region. Many of the same lawmakers pointed out China has an ever-increasing number of troops and combat systems.

Essentially, many HASC members seemed concerned China is building up to expand influence and control while the US is cutting its budget and not installing a strong enough combat presence in the Asia-Pacific.

One member sounded less worried about the Chinese military buildup than others. Rep. Rob Andrews, D-N.J., opined that “the most grim scenarios” for a US-China clash or other Chinese moves “are the least likely in Asia-Pacific.” ■

Email: jbennett@defensenews.com.

TIME TO PREPARE FOR A SECOND COLD WAR?

28 January 2014

Kishori Lal

The Ukrainian President has apparently decided that he can clear the streets by force without triggering a long-term bloody confrontation with his rivals

“The protest mood in Ukraine is at a higher temperature than ever before”, said Mr Vitali Klitschko, the de facto leader of the anti-Government protests that have filled central Kiev for the past two months, in an interview with the Guardian on Tuesday. “We only need a small spark for the situation to develop in a way that will be completely out of control for the authorities.” It's make-or-break time, because on Wednesday a raft of new laws came into effect that make almost everything the protesters have been doing illegal. The laws, which were rushed through the Ukrainian Parliament last week on a show of hands, ban helmets, hard hats and masks at rallies, and impose fines and prison sentences for setting up unauthorised tents, stages or sound systems in public places.

They prescribe jail terms for anybody blockading public buildings, and make it a crime to ‘slander’ public officials (whatever that means). You can also go to jail for handing out pamphlets, and you can get 15 years for being part of a ‘mass riot’ (however the Government chooses to define that). If President Viktor Yanukovych's Government tries to enforce these laws on the tent city of protesters that has filled the Maidan (Independence Square) since late November, there will be something like civil war in the heart of the Ukrainian capital. He hasn't done so yet, but mobile phone users near the violent clashes early Tuesday morning got text messages saying: “Dear subscriber, you are registered as a participant in a mass riot.”

Mr Yanukovych is getting desperate, because the protests are no longer just against his abrupt decision not to sign a treaty creating closer trade and political ties between Ukraine and the European Union, and to turn to Russia instead for loans ($15 billion) and discounted gas. The protests have expanded to take in the dire state of the economy, Mr Yanukovych's ruthless political tactics, and the sudden wealth of the ‘family’ of officials and businessmen who support him. So long as the conflict was about the EU-or-Russia issue, Mr Yanukovych could count on the backing of the Russian-speaking half of the Ukrainian population, in the south and the heavily industrialised east of the country: Many people there fear for their jobs if the Ukrainian economy integrates with the EU. But the poverty and the corruption hurt everybody, whether they speak Ukrainian or Russian. Everybody can get together and protest about that.

Mr Yanukovych's back is to the wall, and he has apparently decided that it's worth gambling that he can clear the streets by force without triggering a confrontation that spreads far beyond the Maidan. And it will have to be done by force, because the protesters will not just fold their tents and creep off home. The sudden lurch into violence on the streets on Sunday and Monday nights occurred in this context. The several hundred young men who attacked the riot police with pipes, chains and fire-bombs were originally thought to be ‘provocateurs’ hired by the Government to give it a justification for using violence on the mass of peaceful protesters, but lots of them were not.

When Mr Klitschko arrived on the scene to beg them to remain non-violent, he was attacked with a fire extinguisher — and thousands of ordinary protesters showed up to cheer the young thugs as they attacked the police. There is a serious potential for mass violence here, and that could lead to even worse things. Mr Yanukovych, for all his faults, is the legitimately elected President of Ukraine, and he has a majority in Parliament. What if, facing overthrow in the streets, he called for fraternal aid from Russia to defend democracy in Ukraine? What if the Russians, who are already claiming that it's a Western plot, agree to send him police and military help?

It sounds far-fetched and it would be extremely stupid, but everybody is busily painting themselves into corners and there is a small but real possibility that it could happen. In which case, welcome to the Second Cold War.

Maoists Look for Safe Sanctuaries and External Support

IDSA COMMENT

Source Link

V K Ahluwalia

January 27, 2014

A media report of 17 January this year, said a large number of armed guerrillas of the Communist Party of India (Maoist), or Maoists in short, have infiltrated into Balaghat district of Madhya Pradesh comes as no surprise. Of course, it is difficult to hazard a guess at the number of rebels that have moved across the porous border between Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh and from the adjoining areas of Gondia (Maharashtra). The enclosed map shows a few safe sanctuaries in the Maoist-affected areas indicating that in case of sustained operations and hot pursuit by the security forces (SF) against the Maoists, they could move into some of the prominent forested areas - also characterised by their remoteness and vulnerable population. These include general areas in and around Malkangiri, Abhujmarh, Gadchiroli, Balaghat, Balrampur and Sarguja, and Saranda. Interestingly, all these lie along inter-state boundaries. The bi-junctions and tri-junctions are known to be the most vulnerable areas.

On 29 May last year, the Maoists - in one of the deadliest pre-planned attacks - had successfully ambushed a convoy of Congress leaders in Chhattisgarh's Bastar district, killing 29 people. The immediate reaction of the rebels was to cross over to southern parts of Odisha, which thereafter resulted in an increase in violence, particularly in Malkangiri and Koraput. The SF too had further intensified their operations in southern Odisha (Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagarh, Navrangpura etc), southern Chhattisgarh with greater focus on the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh and Gadchiroli in Maharashtra. They have met with a large measure of success, resulting in apprehension, elimination or surrender of a few rebels. Gudsa Usendi (GVK Prasad), leader and spokesperson of Dandyakarna Special Zonal Committee (DSZC) surrendered to the Andhra Pradesh police in early January 2014, after having remained with the Maoists (particularly in Chhattisgarh) for about three decades. The rebels have also remained active in the conflict areas by resorting to killing civilians and security personnel, laying IEDs and preventing development activities by destroying plant equipment and vehicles of contractors. If we plot, on a map, the areas in which the operations were conducted by the SF and the places where the rebels have experienced the heat of such operations, the Maoists could possibly move into the adjoining areas of Balaghat (Madhya Pradesh) to the west or Andhra Pradesh in the south or forested areas in the north, to seek refuge. Considering the overall status of anti- Maoist operations, the distances involved and the success achieved by the Andhra Pradesh's police, Balaghat forests and ghats appeared to offer a relatively safer sanctuary.

Movement of the Maoists into an otherwise relatively dormant Balaghat region was quite expected. It has been reported that one of the Local Guerrilla Squad (LGS) commanders, named Dilip, who has been on the wanted list, has led the armed Maoists into the Balaghat region. Balaghat has also been in the news in recent times due to activities of the Tanda Dalam (guerrilla squad). Coupled with this, a few suspected Maoists were arrested in early January 2014. Balaghat district - one of the poorer district - lies along the south eastern portion of the Satpura Range, and has a series of ghats, laden with dense forest cover. In addition, it is extremely rich in minerals such as manganese, bauxite, copper, marble, dolomite, limestone and clay. Balaghat has all the ingredients required to bolster Maoists activities - difficult terrain, dense forests, vulnerable population. While such forested areas and ghats provide safe sanctuaries to the Naxals, it is also easier to move across the porous border into Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra to escape the dragnet of the operations by the SF.

Network Centric Warfare

ByLt Gen Prakash Katoch

IssueVol. 28.4 Oct-Dec 2013

Date : 27 Jan , 2014

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/network-centric-warfare/0/

No matter the advancements in robotics, the importance of the ‘man behind the machine’ will remain relevant. This is equally applicable to Network Centric Warfare (NCW). The success of NCW rests on the idea that information is only useful if it enables more effective action. Significantly, the key to success of NCW is not technology but people who will use it – the human dimension, which is based on professional mastery and mission command requiring high standards of training, education, doctrine, organisation and leadership. It is about the way people collaborate to share their awareness of the situation in order to fight more effectively. The human dimension of NCW is complex, difficult to conceptualise and defence forces all over the globe are struggling with the issue, experimenting to achieve breakthroughs in varied measure.

Advancements in robotics notwithstanding, the role of the ‘man behind the machine’ will continue to remain critical and relevant. This is equally applicable to Network Centric Warfare (NCW). The success of NCW rests on the idea that information is only useful if it enables more effective action. Significantly, the key to success of NCW is not technology but personnel who will use it – the human dimension, which is based on professional mastery and mission command requiring high standards of training, education, doctrine, organisation and leadership. It is about the way people collaborate to share their awareness of the situation in order to fight more effectively. The human dimension of NCW is complex, difficult to conceptualise and defence forces all over the globe are struggling with the issue, experimenting to achieve breakthroughs in varied measure.

The Issue

The role of information in NCW is clear but much needs to be understood how human beings share, absorb and make sense of available information and then make decisions based on that information. Simply increasing the amount of information available to commanders does not necessarily result in improved knowledge nor help them make better decisions. The premise, that more information is better, is not always true. Though gathering information enhances intelligence, it also must aid understanding and decision making. Coupled with the aspect of information are issues such as understanding the power of the applications itself, for example, knowing properties and limitations of the Decision Support System (DSS).

The purpose of an information management strategy is to improve human ability to find data and to understand it on receipt…

The purpose of an information management strategy is to improve human ability to find data and to understand it on receipt. In a network centric environment, team decision making and situation assessment are distributed in both time and space. Shared understanding among team members with regard to the impact, importance and quality of relevant information items is critical element in selection of an effective course of action. The focus required is the minimum information that needs to be exchanged, how to capture that information and how to best display it.

In the US, NATO and Coalition Forces, “Chat” has become a dominant communication vehicle. Based on a compilation across multiple stakeholders and inputs chat tools are developed to meet user needs in a dynamic environment. Implementation of these chat tools enables effectiveness and efficiency because they facilitate situational awareness. They allow users to gain timely access to chat information as well as provide optimal archiving and retrieval capabilities besides facilitating timely message composition, transmission and receipt user identification and the like.

2013 could be beginning of watershed moment in China's history

27 January 2014

Source Link

The ’China Dream’ is part of the new Chinese leadership’s attempt to find a balance between reforms, social changes and corruption that took place in frenzied pace since 1989, according to Dr. Tansen Sen, Associate Professor of Asian History, Baruch College, City University New York, USA. 

Delivering a lecture on ’China After Thirty Years: Reflections on a Changing Society’ at the ORF Kolkata Chapter on 21 January, Dr. Sen said the idea of ’China Dream’ could have occurred to President Xi Jinping from the 2008 Beijing Olympics for which he was in charge of preparations. The motto of Beijing Olympics, ’One World, One Dream, ’may have helped shape Xi’s idea of the ’One China Dream’ which is also being referred to as the ’Chinese Dream.’ 

The distinction between individual aspirations and a national dream is clear to the Chinese government where there are contradictions between the political system and the consumerism-driven economy, Dr. Sen added. He said that the Third Plenum tries to come to terms with such contradictions between the government and the society at large. During this phase, Dr. Sen said, there does not seem to have been a clear direction guiding reforms and policies to address the needs of a changing society. These seem to be the main goals under President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. 

Dr. Sen said that the year 2013 could be the beginning of a watershed moment in China’s contemporary history. 

One of the important developments in the past year or so in China, according to Dr. Sen, has been the way in which the Chinese are reflecting and expressing their views on the recent, post-1949, history. People are, for example, beginning to talk about and undertake research on the Cultural Revolution more thoroughly than any time before. In the last 8 to 10 months, several former Red Guards have come out and expressed themselves in public and apologised for the wrongs they committed during the Cultural Revolution. Similarly, there are universities and institutions that are conducting research and publishing their outcome. This marks a dramatic change from the 1980s when individual expressions about the Cultural Revolution were restricted and controlled. 

Left-wing Extremism 2013: The Threat Continues

26 January 2014

YEAR IN REVIEW

Source Link

N Manoharan

Left-wing Extremism (LWE) continued to remain as one of the major challenges to India’s internal security in 2013. Its intensity persisted especially in three states – Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa – apart from significant presence in West Bengal, Bihar, and Maharashtra. At the same time, the left-wing extremists have successfully managed to penetrate into some of the states of the northeast and south of India and into few of the urban areas.

The Expansion in 2013

In 2013, the Maoists continue to push the boundaries of the ‘Red Corridor’ and set up support bases in upper Assam and some of the tribal areas in the hilly interiors. The presence of Maoists is felt in pockets of Tinsukia, Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur, Dhemaji, Sivasagar, Golaghat and Karbi Anglong districts of Assam and Lohit district of Arunachal Pradesh (adjoining Tinsukia). The Maoists have also been trying to extend their presence in southern India, especially around tri-junction of Tamil Nadu-Kerala-Karnataka. As far as urban areas are concerned, significant Maoist activities, especially of its front organisations, have been reported from places like Delhi and the National Capital Region, Gurgaon, NOIDA, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Pune, Nagpur, Surat, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Ranchi, Jamshedpur, Raipur, Durg, Patna, Hyderabad, Rourkela, Bhubaneswar, Guwahati and Chandigarh.

Decline in Violence Statistics in 2013

Compared to 2011-12, the number of violent incidents and killings due to LWE has come down in 2013. However, though less in numbers, the attacks by Maoists have been intense and brutal. One of such ruthless attacks was made on a convoy of Congress leaders and workers at Jeeram Ghati in Jagdalpur district of Chhattisgarh on 25 May 2013 that claimed 28 lives and injured scores of others. Those killed included Mahendra Karma, a former Minister of Chhattisgarh and a former Lok Sabha member, Nand Kumar Patel, the state’s Congress chief, his son Dinesh Patel, and former MLA Uday Mudliyar; former Union minister Vidya Charan Shukla and Konta MLA Kawasi Lakhma were critically injured. The convoy was an ideal target because of the presence of many high-profile leaders in one place, and that too with less security cover, passing through a most vulnerable area.

The year witnessed a shrink in the number of middle- and top-level Maoist leaders due to killings or arrests or surrenders. This happened mostly in Odisha, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Yet, one cannot assert with absolute confidence that the Left-wing Extremism is on the wane.