US must acknowledge China’s ambition

By Christopher Layne 
AUGUST 26, 2014

A woman adjusts a flag during the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing in July.

ONE HUNDRED years ago this month, Britain declared war on Germany. And though the issues of that era may seem irrelevant now, the pre-war tensions between those two nations can actually help us understand where today’s Sino-American relationship is headed. After all, though history never repeats itself exactly, as Mark Twain famously observed, it does rhyme. Or to put it another way, clear patterns recur when two rival nations are locked in a cycle of rise and decline.

Throughout history, those power transitions have almost invariably resulted in war — and the US-China relationship is in just such a transition. China clearly is on the rise. It has surpassed the United States as the world’s leading manufacturing state, the leading trading state, and the leading exporter. Indeed, according to one World Bank measure, China already has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest economy. That nation’s growing wealth is financing a big buildup of its military capabilities and fueling its geopolitical ambitions.

When power transitions occur, great powers eventually face what students of great-power dynamics relations call “the Carr Moment.” In “The Twenty Years’ Crisis,” his classic study of international relations, British scholar Edward Hallett Carr focused on a crucial issue in great-power politics: When the balance of power is shifting, how can a declining nation’s desire to preserve the status quo be reconciled with an ascending rival’s desire to revise the world order to reflect its rising power?

The Carr Moment comes at the point when the declining power must decide whether to accede to that revision or try to preserve the prevailing order. Standing firm means risking war. But accommodating the rising power forces the fading hegemon to come to terms with its decline.

China Rising

Jim Talent 

AUGUST 25, 2014 2:22 PM

China recently conducted its third land-based missile-intercept test. These tests, most likely designed to facilitate “hit to kill” technologies critical for China’s missile defense and anti-satellite programs, are part of a well-planned, enormous military buildup in which the Chinese have been engaged for nearly 20 years.

Here are some features of that effort: 

They have created a large and modern navy, which, by 2020, will be substantially larger than America’s. Its vessels are highly capable and armed with long-range, advanced, anti-ship missiles and air-defense missiles. 

They are upgrading their nuclear arsenal and are on track to more than double the number of their nuclear warheads capable of striking the U.S. homeland over the next few years. 

They already have the world’s largest and most lethal inventory of conventional ballistic missiles as well as large numbers of highly capable and long-range ground-, air- and sea-based cruise missiles. They will continue to expand, diversify, and improve their missile inventory, enhancing their ability to coerce or use force against the United States and its allies and partners in Asia. China now is able to threaten U.S. bases and operating areas throughout the region, including those that it previously could not reach with conventional weapons, such as Anderson Air Force Base on Guam. 

They have almost 2,000 capable fighter aircraft and are on track to introduce two new fifth-generation fighters, which they will likely add to their inventory between 2017 and 2019. China also appears to be developing a new long-range stealth bomber. 

They are significantly upgrading their intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems and improving their amphibious capabilities. 

According to the Defense Science Board, they already have offensive cyber capabilities that can inflict existential damage on America’s critical infrastructure. 

James Foley's murder should only stiffen our resolve to destroy Islamic State

By Shashank Joshi World 

Journalist James Foley in Aleppo, Syria, in September 2012 Photo: AP

There is something disturbing about the fact that the murder of a single Westerner should elicit greater shock and garner more attention than the torture and killing of hundreds upon hundreds of Syrians and Iraqis stretching back years, but if this is what it takes to bring home the sadism and cruelty of the so-called caliphate, so be it.

I did not watch the Islamic State’s propaganda snuff movie of James Foley’s murder (the word “execution” is utterly misplaced), and it should not be screened, circulated, or given undue publicity, but the audio clipsconvey one of it’s most chilling aspects: the distinct British accent of his killer.

Just over a month ago, former MI6 chief Richard Dearlove argued that more than 500 Britons who had joined IS were “misguided young men, rather pathetic figures” who would be better ignored. There are indeed plenty of young Britons who travelled to Syria, only to find that they lacked the stomach for the fight.

But the act of beheading a hostage on tape, having forced him to renounce his country, is something quite different. Indeed, it seems plausible that IS would intentionally choose a Briton to oversee this atrocity, precisely because of their intended audience. IS want to dissuade Western powers from taking on their caliphate, and what better way to convey the message than a voice all the more disturbing for its familiarity?

IS has always sought to use beheadings instrumentally, and this is no exception. They were careful to parade another hostage, Steven Sotloff, in yesterday’s video and declare that his life depended on Obama’s “next decision”. IS will be aware that both Britain and America are in the midst of debates, within government and amongst the public, over how far to go.

Although it’s unlikely that IS’ specific intention was to drive a wedge between Washington and London – after all, James Foley himself was American – it’s clear that this is a moment of uncertainty in the West. The grotesque spectacle of beheadings – orange jumpsuits, masked captors, desert landscape, and formulaic, coerced last words – are all intended to resonate amongst Western publics, as they are on today’s front pages, reinforcing that uncertainty, and breaking our will to take on a distant threat.

Analysis: Hamas-IS equation as perceived by the US

Obama's willingness to aid in the fight against radical Islam isn't a Carte Blanche for Netanyahu in Gaza

Imagine the Israelis and the Palestinians engulfed in a long and bloody war, with large number of casualties on both sides and images of death and destruction being splashed on the front pages of newspapers around the world. Large demonstrations in the Arab World blast Israel and its American ally while the Saudis, the Egyptians and other Arab governments, joined by the Soviet Union, demand that Washington "do something" ASAP to stop Israeli aggression and as American officials worry that the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict would result in rising oil prices and ignite Soviet diplomatic moves.

Well, you don't have to imagine such a scenario. It happened in 1982 after Israel responded to an alleged terrorist attack by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) by attacking PLO targets as well as civilian centers in Lebanon, and eventually occupying Beirut. The pro-Israeli administration of President Ronald Reagan came under enormous pressure at home and abroad to invest time and resources in trying to bring the war to an end and force Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. The Americans did that and even ended up deploying American peacekeeping troops in Beirut.

Now...Fast-forward thirty years later as the fighting between Israel and Hamas-led Palestinian forces is raging in Gaza. Once again there are images of civilian deaths as well as international anger directed at Israel. But this time most of the Arab governments and public aren't as mobilized in support of the Palestinian cause as they were in 1982 (or for that matter, during most of the post-1948 era). In fact, Egypt and Saudi Arabia seem to be distancing themselves from Hamas; and Cairo is even providing diplomatic backing for the Israelis.

And there are certainly no Arab threats to impose an oil embargo on the United States and unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, none of today's leading global players is identifying itself with the Palestinians. With the exception of a few American liberal pundits and leftist and Muslim activists no one has been actually putting pressure on the Obama administration to "do something" and restrain the Israeli government.

How James Foley’s Death Changed the Course of Obama’s Foreign Policy

BY ANDREW L. PEEK,Fiscal Times

August 24, 2014

Colin Powell is an American hero.He served two combat tours in Vietnam, and rose to become the first African-American Secretary of State, National Security Advisor, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But the doctrine that bears his name – the Powell Doctrine – is a disaster. That idea of American power has contributed to U.S. passivity leading to (among other things) the brutal execution of American journalist James Foley. That is why it is – finally – on the way out. 

The Powell Doctrine is somewhat of a misnomer: It’s actually mostly the Weinberger Doctrine, articulated by President Reagan’s former Secretary of Defense and refined by Powell afterwards. It says that American military power should not be used except overwhelmingly and as a last resort, with a clear political objective and exit strategy in mind. It evolved conceptually as a reaction to some of the perceived failures of the Vietnam War, such as shifting, vague political goals and artificial constraints on the use of force. 

UN Accuses ISIS of Mass Killings

August 25, 2014 

U.N. accuses Islamic State of mass killings 

Outgoing U.N. Human Rights Commissioner Navi Pillay talks during an interview to Reuters in her office in Geneva August 19, 2014.

(Reuters) - The United Nations condemned on Monday “appalling, widespread” crimes by Islamic State forces in Iraq, including mass executions of prisoners that could amount to war crimes. 

U.N. human rights chief Navi Pillay condemned “grave, horrific human rights violations” being committed by Islamic State, a Sunni Muslim group which has seized large areas of Iraq and Syria to the alarm of the Baghdad government and its allies in the West. 

Up to 670 prisoners from Badush prison in the city of Mosul were killed by Islamic State on June 10, Pillay said in a statement quoting survivors and witnesses to the “massacre” as telling U.N. human rights investigators. 

"Such cold-blooded, systematic and intentional killings of civilians, after singling them out for their religious affiliation, may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity," Pillay said. 

Islamic State (ISIL) loaded 1,000 to 1,500 prisoners from the jail on to trucks and took them for screening, Pillay said. Sunni inmates were then separated and removed. 

"ISIL gunmen then yelled insults at the remaining prisoners, lined them up in four rows, ordered them to kneel and opened fire," she said. 

AIR POWER 

Update on Security Situation in Somalia and Yemen

August 25, 2014

Yemen: al Houthi movement publishes a statement addressing recent negotiations with the Yemeni Presidential Commission; anti-Houthi protestors demonstrate in Sana’a; al Houthi militants clash with al Islah tribesmen and Yemeni military in al Jawf; Ansar al Sharia militants detonate car bomb in Aden; Ansar al Sharia militants ambush Yemeni military patrol in Hadramawt; Ansar al Sharia militants assassinate local trader in Hadramawt; Yemeni airplanes bomb suspected AQAP house in Hadramawt; suspected AQAP militants attack government official’s home in Dhamar; al Houthi militants relocate forces from al Jawf and Ma’rib to Sa’ada; Yemeni military chief of staff meets with U.S. military delegation

Horn of Africa: AMISOM and Somali National Army forces seize key town in Bakool region from al Shabaab; al Shabaab militants clash with armed qat traders in Hiraan region; unidentified gunmen kill two Puntland police officers in Bari region; rival Somali clan militias clash in Kenya’s North Eastern Province

Yemen Security Brief 

The al Houthi movement’s political arm, Ansar Allah, published a statement on August 25 addressing recent negotiations that were conducted with President Hadi’s Presidential Commission, claiming that the Commission left early and did not have any actual power. President Hadi’s Presidential Commission stated that the al Houthi rebels rejected their proposals and claimed the al Houthis were angling for war. An anonymous Yemeni government official who participated in negotiations stated that the Yemeni government offered to resign within one month on August 23 amid ongoing al Houthi protests in Sana’a, on condition that the al Houthis cease their protests and withdraw from their camps. The government also agreed to review a recent cessation of a fuel subsidy program. However, it appears that the al Houthis have rejected this proposal.

[1]Thousands of anti-al Houthi protestors gathered in Sana’a on August 24, to demonstrate against the al Houthi movement’s protests.

[2]Al Houthi militants fought with al Islah party tribesmen and Yemeni soldiers on August 23 and 24 in al Ghail, al Jawf. Reportedly, 16 al Houthis were killed and four were injured in the clashes, while four al Islah party tribesmen were also killed and five were injured.

[3]Militants from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) insurgent arm, Ansar al Sharia, detonated a car bomb in the al Mansoura neighborhood in Aden on August 23, killing Colonel Ahmed Mohammed Saleh al Amri, director of military supplies for the 7th Regional Command. Following the explosion, Ansar al Sharia released a statement via Twitter on August 23, claiming credit for the car bomb and asserting al Amri had participated in the Yemeni military’s campaign against Sunnis in Shabwah and Abya.

Qaida-linked men free American writer missing in Syria since 2012

Washington

August 25

Al Qaida-linked militants in Syria on Sunday freed an American writer missing since 2012 following what officials said were efforts by the Gulf Arab state of Qatar to win his release.

US Secretary of State John Kerry said in a statement that Peter Theo Curtis had been held by Nusra Front, Al-Qaida's official wing in Syria whose rivalry with militant group Islamic State has fueled war among the insurgents themselves.

President Barack Obama, who was briefed on Curtis' release, "shares in the joy and relief that we all feel now that Theo is out of Syria and safe," the White House said.

"But we continue to hold in our thoughts and prayers the Americans who remain in captivity in Syria, and we will continue to use all of the tools at our disposal to see that the remaining American hostages are freed," the statement added.

News of Curtis' release emerged just days after the Islamic State group posted a video on the Internet showing one of its fighters beheading American journalist James Foley, who was kidnapped in Syria in 2012.

The United Nations said in a statement "it can confirm that it facilitated the handover of Peter Theo Curtis. He was handed over to UN peacekeepers in Al Rafid village, Quneitra, the Golan Heights, on 24 August 2014. After receiving a medical check-up, Mr Curtis was handed over to representatives of his government."

White House national security adviser Susan Rice said in a statement that Curtis, 45, was "safe outside of Syria, and we expect he will be reunited with his family shortly."— AFP

An author & a journalist 

Peter Theo Curtis, a US citizen held hostage in Syria, delivers a statement. AP/PTI 

Peter Theo Curtis is an author and journalist who published books under the name Theo Padnos. His family said in a statement that he changed his name legally to Peter Theo Curtis after he published a memoir called "Undercover Muslim: A Journey into Yemen" 

Curtis, who has a PhD in comparative literature from the University of Massachusetts, and is fluent in Arabic and French, wrote his first book about the frustrations of teaching literature to incarcerated teenagers in Vermont.

 

He later became fascinated with another type of troubled youth: Western men who converted to extremist Islamist causes. After moving to Yemen, he studied at religious madrassas along with disaffected young men from the US and Europe 

Curtis entered Syria in 2012 hoping to write freelance news stories to help the Syrian people, family spokeswoman Betsy Sullivan said 

Beheading video of Foley was ‘staged’

A masked Islamic State militant holding a knife stands next to James Foley at an unknown location. 

The gruesome video of an Islamist militant beheading James Foley was probably staged with the actual murder taking place off-camera, according to forensic experts 

It has emerged that the Briton might be a frontman and not the killer. The analysis highlights a number of discrepancies that could indicate that the beheading scene broadcast to the world was not the genuine killing 

Firstly, no blood can be seen, even though the knife is drawn across the neck area at least six times Secondly, sounds allegedly made by Foley do not appear consistent with what may be expected 

The forensic expert said no incision could be seen on Foley's neck, though the right hand of the jihadist partially blocked the shot

Top Muslim groups and leaders condemn ISIS

August 22, 2014

Al-Qaeda has distanced itself from the group, chiding it for its lack of teamwork in its aggressive, brutal expansion.

Recently, Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti Sheik Abdulaziz Al al-Sheik has described ISIS as "enemy number one of Islam".

Muslim groups and leaders from across the world, including those from the US, have strongly condemned the barbarism unleashed by the Islamic State, also known as Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or ISIS, describing the extremist outfit’s behaviour as “un-Islamic”.

“We strongly condemn this gruesome and barbaric killing as a violation of Islamic beliefs and of universally-accepted international norms mandating the protection of prisoners and journalists during conflicts,” said the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation’s largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization.

CAIR’s remarks came days after the ISIS released a video showing one of its members beheading American journalist James Foley, who was abducted in Syria in November 2012.

“The Geneva Conventions, the Quran – Islam’s revealed text – and the traditions (hadith) of the Prophet Muhammad all require that prisoners not be harmed in any way. There can be no excuse or justification for such criminal and bloodthirsty actions,” CAIR said.

Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) condemned the vicious execution of Foley at the hands of the terrorist group ISIS, terming it as “un-Islamic behaviour”.

“ISIS actions have never been representative nor in accordance to the mainstream teachings of Islam. This act of murder cannot be justified according to the faith practiced by over 1.6 billion people,” said ISNA President Mohamed Magid.

The Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC) condemned the “barbaric execution” of Foley and urged all people of conscience to take a stand against extremism.

“A major obstacle preventing the true message of Islam worldwide is extremism. In this, we are not alone. Sadly, extremists contaminate all religions,” reads the Declaration Against Extremism.

“Thus, with this document, together we passionately reaffirm our opposition to extremists of all stripes, particularly all Muslim extremists who betray Islam’s true message. Furthermore, we pledge to collectively condemn and act to prevent extremism in all forms,” MPAC said.

Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Secretary General Iyad Ameen Madani condemned what ISIS is committing against innocent Christian Iraqis in Mosul and Nineveh including forced deportation under the threat of execution; thus further tearing apart the social fabric of the Iraqi people.

Recently, Saudi Arabia’s Grand Mufti Sheik Abdulaziz Al al-Sheik has described ISIS as “enemy number one of Islam”.

ISIS is an al-Qaeda splinter group and it has seized hundreds of square miles in Iraq and Syria.

Al-Qaeda has distanced itself from the group, chiding it for its lack of teamwork in its aggressive, brutal expansion.

ISIS Fighters Capture Tabqa Air Base in Eastern Syria - Assad Regime’s Last Stronghold in Region

Ben Hubbard

August 25, 2014

ISIS Militants Capture Air Base From Syrian Government Forces

BAGHDAD — Extremist fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria seized a military base in northern Syria on Sunday from forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, further solidifying control inside their self-declared Islamic state spanning the Syria-Iraq border.

The fall of the Tabqa air base followed the group’s seizing of two other Syrian military bases and gave it effective control of Raqqa Province, which abuts the Turkish border and whose capital city, Raqqa, has long served as the group’s de facto headquarters.

Recent military advances by ISIS in northern and eastern Syria have highlighted the lack of local military forces that can effectively battle the group, which President Obama last week called a “cancer” that must be eradicated from the Middle East.

Syrian rebel groups that formed to fight Mr. Assad’s government never managed to take the air base, and while Mr. Assad’s forces have been bombing ISIS from the air and killing its fighters, they lack the ground troops necessary to challenge the group’s hold on terrain.

The United States began airstrikes on ISIS positions in Iraq this month, leading to some advances by Iraqi and Kurdish forces. But Mr. Obama has declined to intervene in Syria’s civil war.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the conflict from Britain through a network of contacts inside Syria, said ISIS’ attack on Sunday was its fourth in the past week. The Syrian government had launched airstrikes on ISIS positions, but the group’s fighters managed to enter the grounds of the air base on Sunday and took it over after many of the troops inside withdrew.

More than 340 ISIS fighters have been killed since the start of the offensive on Tuesday, the Observatory said, in addition to about 170 government soldiers. If confirmed, those numbers would make the battle the deadliest yet between the jihadist movement and the Syrian government.

Photographs posted Sunday on Twitter accounts sympathetic to ISIS showed bearded fighters in the air base, standing next to a destroyed fighter jet and appearing to cut the head off a dead soldier.

The Observatory and an antigovernment activist reached through Skype nearby said that all the working aircraft had been flown out of the base before ISIS stormed in.

The Syrian state news service, SANA, acknowledged that government troops had withdrawn from the air base but said they had successfully “regrouped” and were still fighting nearby.

The Forgotten War: Intensifying Fighting Indicates the Start of Another Long and Bloody Libyan Civil War

David D. Kirkpatrick 

August 25, 2014 

Strife in Libya Could Presage Long Civil War 

TRIPOLI, Libya — “The fire is inside the airport!” a militiaman cried, as he fired an antiaircraft cannon on the back of a pickup truck toward the runway of Libya’s main international airport. “God is great, the flames are rising!” 

“Intensify the shooting,” responded his commander, Salah Badi, an ultraconservative Islamist and former lawmaker from the coastal city of Misurata. 

Captured on video by the proud attackers just one month ago, Mr. Badi’s assault on Libya’s main international airport has now drawn the country’s fractious militias, tribes and towns into a single national conflagration that threatens to become a prolonged civil war. Both sides see the fight as part of a larger regional struggle, fraught with the risks of a return to repressive authoritarianism or a slide toward Islamist extremism. Three years after the NATO-backed ouster of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, the violence threatens to turn Libya into a pocket of chaos destabilizing North Africa for years to come. 

An Islamist fighter in Tripoli celebrated on Sunday after his faction of fighters captured the city’s international airport. Credit Mahmud Turkia/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images 

Libya is already a haven for itinerant militants, and the conflict has now opened new opportunities for Ansar al-Shariah, the hard-line Islamist group involved in the assault on the American diplomatic Mission in Benghazi in 2012. 

Those backing Mr. Badi say his attack was a pre-emptive blow against an imminent counterrevolution modeled on the military takeover in Egypt and backed by its conservative allies: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 

Barack Obama Is Not a Realist

Paul J. Saunders

August 26, 2014

In the absence of an overarching strategy, Obama's pragmatism in isolated cases doesn't build toward any larger strategic goals.

IS PRESIDENT Barack Obama a foreign-policy realist? For most of his time in office, both his supporters and his detractors have said that he is—and until very recently, Obama did not dispute it. On the contrary, the White House often aggressively cultivated the image of the president as a steely-eyed pragmatist judiciously making tough calls on both international and domestic policy. Nevertheless, in his May commencement speech at West Point, Obama finally distanced himself from this, saying that “according to self-described realists, conflicts in Syria or Ukraine or the Central African Republic are not ours to solve” and that this view is inadequate to “the demands of this moment.”

If we take President Obama at his word that he is not a realist—and there are good reasons to do so—his administration’s long flirtation with foreign-policy realism and especially with the Left’s “progressive realists” raises two important questions. First, why were the president and his advisers comfortable with longtime and widely held perceptions that he was a realist? Second, what changed their minds?

Answering these questions with any certainty would require a front-row seat in the White House Emergency Public Relations Bunker that one can too easily imagine the administration building immediately beneath the Situation Room for its most important decision making. Still, it is not difficult to see how the image of foreign-policy realism could appeal to the president and his communications team—it has provided superficial intellectual and political legitimacy to Obama’s frequently expressed desire to concentrate on “nation building at home.” It likewise helped the administration to justify avoiding undue involvement in complex and time-consuming international problems, especially those inherited from former president George W. Bush, whose legacy the White House has publicly repudiated but quietly continued in many respects.

Want to get out of Iraq? Pivot to Asia instead—it’s more strategically important. Need to withdraw from Afghanistan? We’ve done all we can there. Hope to stay out of further wars in the Middle East? Negotiate with Iran and use Congress as an excuse to stay out of Syria. Americans frustrated with Bush’s expensive choices were understandably tempted.

In the end, however, the White House public-relations operation was too clever by half. The administration could not really explain why it was prepared to use force in Libya but not Syria, especially after President Bashar al-Assad appeared to cross Obama’s “red line” by using chemical weapons. More recently, Obama’s carefully built reputation for caution became a growing liability after his oratorically strong but factually weak response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Iraq’s sudden vulnerability to the militant group branding itself the Islamic State—and the administration’s struggle to respond—made matters worse by simultaneously calling into question the abrupt U.S. withdrawal in 2011 and the bizarre policy of undermining stability on one side of the Iraq-Syria border while trying to preserve it on the other. The president and his team needed to come up with a new rationale for his policies that would sound reasonable, explain when his administration would use force and when it wouldn’t, and rebut interventionist criticism of his purportedly “realist” approach. Hence the West Point speech, with its dismissiveness toward “self-described realists” and its contorted attempt to establish retroactively useful criteria for using military and other foreign-policy tools.

BUT DID the Obama administration actually ever pursue a realist foreign policy? This question is more complicated, because it requires a definition of realism, but also easier, because unlike its motives (and with the exception of classified programs), the administration’s actions have been open and visible to all.

The principal reason that Obama’s critics and defenders considered him a realist for so long has been his administration’s generally pragmatic policies. But realism is much more than pragmatism; confusing the two is one of the most fundamental and enduring errors in America’s foreign-policy debates. Realism is pragmatism rooted in awareness of international anarchy, infused with a deep understanding of American power and in service of a strategy based on American national interests. Obama is not a realist because his policies typically start and stop with the pragmatic and even the opportunistic. He appears to have excessive faith in international norms, little real appreciation of power’s uses and limits, and minimal interest in foreign policy, much less American international strategy.

The NRA Pissed Off the Wrong Nerd Genius

Cliff Schecter

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg already had the gun lobby in his sights. Now Bill Gates is donating $1 million for universal background checks—and there’s more where that came from.

Somewhere in a large glass tower in Northern Virginia, there’s a guy who runs guns with a French name having a bad day. With good reason.

It was reported Monday that Bill Gates, Microsoft co-founder and incredibly wealthy guy, and with his wife, Melinda, have given $1 million to Initiative 594 in Washington state. The ballot initiative, if passed by voters on November 4 (and it currently enjoys overwhelming support), will require universal background checks for all firearm purchases in the state.

Gates is only the latest Washington billionaire to give to the effort, with original Amazon investor Nick Hanauer providing crucial early funding, and more recently upping his overall donation to $1.4 million. Additionally, Gates’s Microsoft co-founder, Paul Allen, has provided $500,000 for the cause.

But Gates’s fame brings more attention and further legitimizes the initiative in a way that almost nobody else could. Once the Gates Foundation made it a priority to combat malaria around the world in 2000, it brought down deaths due to the insect-borne disease by 20 percent in 11 years, saving the lives of 1 million African children in the process.

DEPUTIZING THE CYBER POSSE: THE NEXT FRONTIER OF PUBLIC/PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

by Fortuna's Corner

August 26, 2014

Deputizing the Cyber Posse: The Next Frontier of Public-Private Partnership

Doug DePeppe is a cyber law attorney with Aspire IP Law Group.

“Virgil Earp was shot by concealed assassins last night. His wounds are fatal.

Telegraph me appointment with power to appoint deputies. Local authorities are

doing nothing. The lives of other citizens are threatened.”

-Letter of Wyatt Earp to U.S. Marshal, Tombstone, Arizona Territory, December

29, 1881

Facing a dire threat to the citizens of Tombstone by criminals, Wyatt Earp requested, and was granted, federal law enforcement authority and permitted to assemble a posse of gunmen to protect his family and to hunt for the men who had shot his brother. For $5 a day, these men were willing to place themselves in extreme danger to help Deputy

U.S. Marshal Wyatt Earp enforce the law.

One hundred and fifty years later, but acting in the same tradition as Wyatt Earp, government authorities in Mexico in May 2014 began to hand blue police uniforms and assault rifles to vigilantes in western Mexico, legalizing a citizen movement that formed last year to combat the violence of the drug cartels. Private citizens lined up at a cattle ranch to receive the uniforms of the newly created “rural state police force” in Tepalcatapec, one of the towns that founded the growing self-defense militias in the agricultural state of Michoacan, Mexico.

Since the time of Wyatt Earp, through the fighting of drug cartels in modern Mexico, there has been a recognized need in times of great societal imbalance or where specialized expertise is needed, for government to commission the support of the citizenry. In the cyber domain, this idea of turning to private enterprise to establish a cooperative environment to fight the collective risk of cyber attack has been called a “public-private partnership” or “PPP”. Indeed, the PPP reference in many law enforcement and homeland security contexts has become so widely accepted that it is almost becoming a tired concept. Yet, the notion of sanctioning an 1881 version of the PPP – a sanctioned posse that cooperates with law enforcement, and possessing the cyber equivalent of the deputizing authority that Wyatt Earp received – is a need that has come of age.

Calls for Better Integration

PPP is widely accepted as key to success in fighting cybercrime. According to Interpol, “It is essential that law enforcement collaborate across sectors with Internet security experts … towards forging a global alliance against cybercrime”. In announcing support for PPP cyber security initiatives last year, the White House observed, “Current public private partnerships in this space have at best unclear or ill-defined roles and responsibilities for … industry.” Support for the PPP model originates from recognition that the challenge of advanced cybercrime is unlikely to be resolved in the near future, and that law enforcement alone is not equipped to fully scale in response to a rapidly maturing threat landscape.

What is lacking in PPP definition, and the basis for Interpol’s call for greater PPP integration between the public and private sectors, comes down to a debate over security functions that many view as inherently governmental. It is a debate about the role of government and society in the face of collective risk. Yet, there was a related debate after 9/11 that challenged government’s approach to terrorism. That debate centered on whether law enforcement should focus on the prosecution or the prevention of terrorism. One resolution of that question led to support for information sharing, and the supporting structures – Information Sharing and Analysis Centers (ISAC) – which facilitate integration of the public and private sectors for increased awareness, preparedness, and responsiveness. ISACs established the lines of organization and operation that enabled government and industry to collaborate on operational matters.

Today’s cyber threats have created an imperative to fashion similar lines of organization and operation. Wyatt Earp’s proper conclusion about ‘threats to citizens’ in Tombstone should be observed once again in the context of cyber threats to society. The time has arrived to sanction the Cyber Posse with certain deputized authorities. Stewart Baker, former General Counsel at the National Security Agency, has been advocating this form of a public-private partnership for some time, making appropriate comparisons to private entities who engage in law-related enforcement functions, like car repo servicers and private investigators. He essentially envisions a licensing regime: “Government should set limits and provide oversight for a true public-private partnership, in which the private sector provides many of the resources and the public sector provides guidance and authorities.”

The Need for Change

Modern airships brace for space odyssey

Joshua A Krisch,TNN

Aug 27, 2014

An artist's rendering of a stratospheric airship in flight. (Source Keck Institute for Space Studies/Eagre Interactive)

Airships are dusty relics of aviation history. Lighter-than-air vehicles conjure images of the Hindenburg, in its glory and destruction, and the Goodyear Blimp, a floating billboard that barely resembles its powerful predecessors. 

But now engineers are designing sleek new airships that could streak past layers of cloud and chart a course through the thin, icy air of the stratosphere, 65,000 feet above the ground — twice the usual altitude of a jetliner. Steered by scientists below, these aerodynamic balloons might be equipped with onboard telescopes that peer into distant galaxies or gather oceanic data along a coastline. 

"Stratospheric airships could give us spacelike conditions from a spacelike platform, but without the spacelike costs," said Sarah Miller, an astrophysicist at the University of California, Irvine. 

High-altitude airships are still in their relative infancy. None has ever flown at 65,000 feet for longer than eight hours. But a recent study from the Keck Institute for Space Studies at Caltech suggests that a more capable airship may not be far-off. And NASA is expected to sponsor a contest to build better airships, breathing new life — and funding — into the idea. 

These airships would not be the first vehicles to venture into the stratosphere, of course. Rockets and satellites routinely whiz past 65,000 feet into earth orbit and beyond, and weather balloons already bob about in the upper reaches of the atmosphere. 

"Balloons have been around for 200 years, so everybody thinks, well, gosh, it's such old technology, how hard can it be?" said Steve Smith, an aerospace engineer who in 2005 designed one of the first successful stratospheric airships. "That's the farthest thing from the truth." 

Unlike free-flying weather balloons, a blimp can be actively maneuvered, providing the control necessary to carry out advanced missions with expensive equipment. But that maneuverability is compromised the moment it begins to lose its aerodynamic shape. 

For that reason, airship design is a balancing act. During the day, the helium inside the balloon warms and expands; at night, it contracts as the temperature drops. 

"That's the real technical challenge," Mr. Smith said. "You want enough gas in there so that it won't collapse at night, and strong materials so it won't burst during the day." 

‘Ebola is easier to avoid than malaria’

Aug 27, 2014 

Liberia fires absentee ministers amid crisis

The head of the US Agency for International Develop-ment, Jeremy Konyndyk, on Tuesday said poor understanding of Ebola was undermining the fight against the epidemic, pointing out that the fever is harder to get than malaria. “Helping people better understand how to protect themselves is critical in controlling this outbreak,” he said.

Meanwhile, Liberia’s leader has sacked ministers and senior government officials who defied an order to return to the west African nation to lead the fight against the deadly Ebola outbreak, her office said on Tuesday. President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf had told overseas ministers to return within a week as part of a state-of-emergency ann-ouncement on August 6, warning that the extraordinary measures were needed “for the very survival of our state”. Her office said in a statement that she had “directed that all officials occupying ministerial-level positions or equivalent, senior and junior, managing directors, deputy/assistant directors or equivalent, commissioners et cetera who violated the orders are hereby relieved of their positions.”

In the meantime, scientists have discovered that a family of proteins, TIM that helps HIV treatment, can also block the release of these deadly viruses. “This provides new insight into our understanding of not only HIV but also Ebola and other viruses,” said Shan-Lu Liu, associate professor in the University of Missouri School of Medicine’s department of Molecular Microbiol-ogy and Immunology. “TIM proteins prevent the realese of viral particles and instead keep them tethered to the cell surface,” said Gordon Freeman, associate professor of medicine with Harvard Medical Scho-ol’s Dana-Farber Can-cer Institute.

World Health Organisation calls for e-cigarette ban

Nina Larson

Aug 27, 2014 

UN agency seeks curbs on indoor use, advertising, sales to minors

The World Health Organisation (WHO) on Tuesday called on governments to ban the sale of e-cigarettes to minors, warning that they pose a “serious threat” to foetuses and youth.

This recommendation that also said the devices should be banned from public indoor spaces, comes ahead of a global meeting on tobacco control.

The devices, which have surged in popularity among the young, function by heating flavoured nicotine liquid into a vapour that is inhaled like traditional cigarettes, minus the smoke.

“The existing evidence shows that (e-cigarette) aerosol is not ‘merely vapour’ as is often claimed in the marketing of these products,” a WHO official said.

The UN agency said there was enough evidence “to caution children and adolescents, pregnant women, and women of reproductive age” about e-cigarette use, due to the “ potential for foetal and adolescent nicotine exposure (having) long-term consequences for brain development”.

It said retailers should be prohibited from selling e-cigarettes to minors, and called for the scrapping of vending machines in almost all current locations.

So far, users have been permitted to freely vape in places where traditional smoking is strictly off limits.

Sales have risen sharply since e-cigarettes were first introduced in 2005.

Since then, the sector has ballooned from a single manufacturer in China to an estimated $3.0-billion global industry with one or more of 466 brands available in 62 countries, WHO said in a statement.

While the WHO acknowledged that the devices, marleted in 8,000 flavours were “likely to be less toxic” for the smoker than conventional cigarettes, it said util manufacturers provide “convincing supporting scientific evidence and obtain regulatory approval,” they should be particularly banned from making any health claims, including that e-cigarettes can help stop smoking.

It also warned of the “renormalisation effect” of e-cigarettes, meaning they can make smoking itself more attractive and “perpetuate the smoking epidemic”.

According to WHO e-cigarette use had at least doubled among both adults and teens from 2008 to 2012. In 2012, seven percent of EU citizens over the age of 15 had given vaping a shot. However, only one percent of the population in the bloc, which governs e-cigarette use in a fragmented fashion, indulged in the practice regularly, WHO said.

In the United States, where e-cigarettes are completely unregulated, they appear more popular, with 47 per cent of smokers and former smokers saying in 2013 that they had tried the devices. US health authorities also said that the number of US youths who had tried e-cigarettes had tripled from 2011 to 2013

It’s Time to Sink the Littoral Combat Ship

William D. Hartungand Jacob Marx

August 25, 2014

It is more important than ever that the Department of Defense spend taxpayer money wisely as the United States economy struggles and the Pentagon budget comes down from its post-World War II peak. This is particularly true for the Navy, which many strategists see assuming an expanded role in protecting U.S. global economic and security interests. Though the optimal scope of the Navy’s mission is up for debate, it’s clear that U.S. leaders envision diverse objectives requiring diverse maritime capabilities. What should be equally clear is that there is no need for the littoral combat ship.

On paper, the Littoral Combat Ship, or LCS, is the high tech, multipurpose answer to the Navy’s 21st Century needs. It is supposed to be fast, maneuverable and able to operate in shallow water. And it is built to adapt to different tasks through a system of exchangeable weapons and equipment, known as “mission packages.” The Navy asserts that an LCS should be able to sail into port and head back to sea in 96 hours, refitted with a completely new payload. This would have allowed theLCS to replace a slew of small and medium warships, 56 at last count. Most importantly, at a projected price tag of $450 million for one sea frame and three mission packages, it appeared to offer three ships for the price of one.

CNO's Losing Battle to Avoid a Hollow Navy

By Bryan McGrath

August 26, 2014

Greenert's Navigation Plan Makes the Best of a Terrible Hand

Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Admiral Jonathan Greenert has adopted the lingo of marine navigation to bring organization to his thinking about fleet priorities. His “Sailing Directions”provide top-line guidance, with occasional “Navigation Plans” to indicate programmatic implementation of the Sailing Directions. Then there are the periodic “Position Reports” to take stock of how well the Navy is doing in pursuing his priorities. 

Recently, the Navy released his “Navigation Plan for 2015-2019” in order to “…describe how Navy’s budget submission for Fiscal Year (FY) 2015-2019 pursues the vision of CNO’s Sailing Directions.” Essentially a summary of priorities for the budget cycle currently in play, the document reveals the clear priorities of this CNO, and sends a message to the American people and their representatives about how the Navy will do its best to remain combat ready and forward deployed in the face of both fiscal austerity and uncertainty.

There is a lot to like in Admiral Greenert’s plan. The addition of industrial base concerns to his list of programmatic priorities signals the leading edge of concern that our manufacturing and repair base must be carefully watched, lest we lose forever the capacity to expand when the need is present. Additionally, his continuing emphasis on the electromagnetic spectrum and cyber demonstrate clear understanding of how high-end war will be conducted in the future. Finally, his emphasis on undersea dominance imposes costs on potential adversaries from a warfare area in which the U.S. already enjoys considerable advantage.

But the decline of the U.S. submarine fleetfrom 55 attack boats today to 41 in 2028 undercuts Admiral Greenert’s undersea emphasis. A shrinking “Silent Service” is emblematic of the Navy’s (and the other Service) conscious decision to favor capability over capacity. 

How on Earth Do You Make a Tank Stealthy?

By Michael Peck

August 27, 2014

DOD wants a smaller, lighter, elusive armored vehicle

The Pentagon’s future tank could resemble a stealth fighter jet more than an armored behemoth like the current M-1 Abrams.

The military wants a vehicle that can survive lethal anti-tank missiles, but without having to haul around so much armor plate that it can barely move. It should also have stealth capabilities to avoid detection.

What might this future tank look like? A conceptual drawing of the Ground X-Vehicle looks like something out of Star Wars—four wheels, no turret, a rotating gun and a chassis so small that it couldn’t accommodate more than one or two crewmen.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency—the Pentagon’s future technology lab—has stated some ambitious goals for the Ground X-Vehicle. It should be half the size and weight of today’s tanks, but with twice the speed.

It should also have half the crew, be able to traverse 95 percent of the terrain it encounters and have reduced sensor signatures.

The latest M-1A2 weighs 60 tons, is 26 feet long, moves at 25 miles per hour and has a crew of four. If DARPA gets its way, the new vehicle would weigh 30 tons, be 13 feet long—smaller than a Humvee—zoom at 50 miles per hour and have a crew of two.

The Pentagon has some radical suggestions for achieving this seemingly impossible dream. To increase mobility, prospective tank designers should consider “rapid omnidirectional movement changes in three dimensions.” This sounds like a vehicle that can raise or lower its chassis like the famously oddball Swedish S-Tank.

For added protection without heavy armor plate, the GXV might automatically dodge incoming threats, which suggests a computer-controlled system that takes evasive action. DARPA also mentions “active repositioning of armor,” which could mean the tank automatically reorienting itself so its thickest armor is facing enemy fire … or some kind of flexible armor plate that rearranges itself to deflect enemy projectiles.

Iran supplied arms to Kurdish forces; Baghdad bomb kills 15

Aug 27, 2014 | 

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters look at a map as they hold a position near the strategic Jalawla area in Diyala province, Iraq. -AFP

Iran has supplied weapons and ammunition to Iraqi Kurdish forces, Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani said Tuesday at a joint press conference with Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Arbil, capital of Iraq’s Kurdish region.

The direct arming of Kurdish forces is a contentious issue because some Iraqi politicians have said they suspect Kurdish leaders have aspirations to break away from the central government completely. The move could also be seen by some as a prelude to Iran taking a more direct role in broader Iraqi conflict.

“We asked for weapons and Iran was the first country to provide us with weapons and ammunition,” Mr Barzani said.

Militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), also known as the Islamic State (IS), have clashed with Kurdish peshmerga fighters in recent weeks and taken control of some areas on the periphery of Iraqi Kurdistan.

Earlier in the day, a car bomb ripped through a crowded Baghdad intersection during morning rush hour on Tuesday, killing 15 people and wounding at least 37, security and medical officials said.

The ISIS, which controls large swathes of northern and western Iraq, claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing in the New Baghdad neighbourhood on Monday and said in a statement that the attack was carried out as revenge for an attack against a Sunni mosque in Diyala on Friday which killed 68 and wounded dozens.

The Iranian foreign minister held talks with Mr Barzani on Tuesday, one day after visiting senior Shia clerics in southern Iraq.

First American jihadi dies fighting for ISIL in Syria

California-born Douglas McAuthur McCain has become the first American jihadi to have died in Syria while fighting for Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), a terrorist outfit that has gained control of large parts of Syria and Iraq.

The death of the 33-year-old American has left many top US officials seriously concerned.

“We were aware of US Citizen Douglas McAuthur McCain’s presence in Syria and can confirm his death. We continue to use every tool we possess to disrupt and dissuade individuals from travelling abroad for violent jihad and to track and engage those who return,” Caitlin Hayden, Spokesperson of the National Security Council, the White House said.

According to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, McCain died in a battle between rival extremist groups in the suburbs of Aleppo, the commercial capital and largest city of Syria.

His uncle, Ken McCain told the CNN that Douglas McCain converted from Christianity to Islam several years ago.

The fact that he became a jihadi left his family “devastated” and “just as surprised as the country,” the uncle said.

The US intelligence agencies had been warning about such involvements for the past several years, particularly after the Mumbai terrorist attack in 2008, in which an American jihadi David Headley played a key role.

The US estimates say that there are about 100 American passport holders who are fighting for ISIL in Syria and Iraq.

The US intelligence agencies and security experts have cautioned the national leadership against the increasing threat posed by home grown terrorists.

While McCain is the first American jihadi to have died fighting for ISIL in Syria, he is not the only one.

Moner Mohammad Abu-alha, 22, who grew up and went to school in Florida died in a northern Syria suicide bombing.

Born in Southern California in January 1981, McCain moved with his family to Minnesota where he attended school.