New Year’s Predictions for Southeast Asia (Part 2)

By Joshua Kurlantzick

December 27, 2014

Counting down the top five predictions for 2015.

 I am now counting down my top five predictions for 2015.

Currently, Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s coalition still lacks a majority in parliament, which is hindering Jokowi’s ability to pass legislation. But by the end of 2015, I think Jokowi’s party, PDI-P, will be at the head of a coalition that includes of majority of members of parliament. Jokowi has for weeks been wooing former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), whose Democrat Party lawmakers could, if they switched from the opposition to Jokowi’s coalition, give Jokowi a majority in parliament. Although Yudhoyono and PDI-P chief Megawati Sukarnoputri still reportedly detest each other, SBY and Jokowi have reportedly gotten along well at a series of private meetings since early December. In addition, SBY, who always saw himself as a major figure in Indonesian history, clearly is worried that people will remember only his behavior at the end of his second term, when he did nothing as the opposition in parliament passed legislation that would drastically reduce the number of direct elections for regional governors and other local offices. This is a strikingly anti-democratic piece of legislation, and one that, polls show, is not supported by most Indonesians. (SBY also probably still hopes to eventually find some sort of senior job at the United Nations or another global agency, for which his reputation matters as well.) Now, SBY may be trying to move the Democrat Party into Jokowi’s camp to show the public that Yudhoyono will fight to maintain direct elections, and to bask in some of the reflected Jokowi’s democratic glow.

4. The NLD dominates Myanmar elections

In the run-up to next fall’s national elections in Myanmar, some analysts have begun suggesting that the National League for Democracy (NLD), the party led by Aung San Suu Kyi, might not win such an overwhelming victory as it did in 1990, or in by-elections held in 2012, when the NLD won nearly every seat contested. The military and its favored party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), have allegedly already begun handing out money, and surely will provide more handouts as Election Day gets closer. In addition, the USDP is the party of President Thein Sein, who helped launch Myanmar’s reform process; many foreign analysts, still besotted with Thein Sein despite Myanmar’s backsliding in 2013 and 2014, believe the linkage to Thein Sein will help win the USDP seats next year. In addition, the NLD remains a party too dominated by Suu Kyi and lacking an effective apparatus for research, for developing policy positions, and potentially for governing.

It won’t matter. The NLD is going to sweep the polls in late 2015, though Suu Kyi will remain barred from the presidency by the Myanmar constitution, and the Myanmar military will continue to wield excessive power through its allocation of 25 percent of seats in parliament and through its enormous network of various security forces throughout the country. Then, the NLD will have to govern. The party’s policy weaknesses will be exposed, it will have to work with a president other than Suu Kyi – perhaps current parliament speaker Shwe Mann – and it will face the tough task of trying to slowly reduce the military’s influence over politics. But the NLD will win the election, and win big.

3. Hillary Clinton walks back her embrace of Burma policy

How the U.S. Marines Do Air Combat Better Than the Air Force Does

by DAVID AXE

Marines expand aggressors as Air Force cuts them

The U.S. Air Force fancies itself America’s main practitioner of air dominance—that is, engaging enemy warplanes and achieving air superiority over the battlefield.

But in some ways, the Navy and Marine Corps actually take aerial warfare more seriously than the Air Force does. Case in point, the Marines are expanding their ability to train for close-in air-to-air dogfighting while the Air Force is cutting back.

Until recently, the Air Force maintained three “aggressor” squadrons—units of highly-experienced pilots flying F-15 and F-16 fighters to simulate enemy warplanes during training exercises.

The 64th and 65th Aggressor Squadrons at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada devoted much of their time to playing the bad guys during the flying branch’s main Red Flag war games. The 18th Aggressor Squadron at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska performs a similar role for Red Flag Alaska.

With just three aggressor units helping to train 59 USAF combat squadrons, there was a strong argument to be made that the Air Force should expand its aggressor force, especially with the Pentagon’s continuing shift away from low-intensity counterinsurgency operations and back toward high-tech warfare.

Instead, in 2014 the Air Force disbanded the 65th Aggressor Squadron and gave most of its F-15s to Air National Guard units. The 64th—mainly an F-16 squadron—gets to keep a few of the F-15s until March 2015, after which point the Air Force will have just the 64th and the 18th and their roughly 40 F-16s to simulate enemy planes.

Above—a 65th Aggressor Squadron F-15. Air Force photo. At top—U.S. Navy F-5s. Navy photo

The aggressor cut was a cost-saving measure. “Fiscal times are tough for the country as a whole, and when you find yourself in that situation you have to make sacrifices and you have to look closely at priorities and make tough decisions,” explained Capt. Jeremy Allen from the 65th.

But in fact, the 65th cost just $35 million a year, less than a quarter of the price of a single new F-35 stealth fighter.

The Injury Afflicting Veterans That No One Wants to Talk About

December 23, 2014

We need to start talking about how severe injuries, to include post-traumatic stress disorder, affect veterans’ sexual function, fertility, and ability to be intimate.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, while long and bloody, are the first modern wars with high survival rates, meaning service members are enduring more complex and catastrophic injuries than ever before. Due to the nature of the tactics employed by the enemy, veterans are coming home with multiple amputations, severe traumatic brain injury, and genitourinary injuries, or injuries to the reproductive organs and the urinary system. How these types of severe injuries, to include post-traumatic stress disorder, affect veterans’ sexual function, fertility, and ability to be intimate has largely been left out of the discussion. This is due to a lack of education on the issue, a lack of research, and institutional biases that don’t allow for sexual health to be treated as an integral part of recovery within the military.

The first-ever public forum on this issue was presented by the Bob Woodruff Foundationduring a two-day conference beginning Dec. 11 in Washington, D.C., called Intimacy After Injury. The event brought together medical professionals from across the country as well as policy experts, Department of Defense and Veterans Affairs representatives, and several family members of veterans to speak out on this critical yet undiscussed problem.

It was a groundbreaking event. Each panel brought forth a different aspect of the issue whether medical, psycho-social, personal, or policy related, pointing to the fact that the DoD and VA lack proper policies and practices for treating veterans suffering from infertility and sexual dysfunction due to combat-related injuries. While innovators within DoD and the medical community at large are beginning to make changes and give this issue a voice, much still needs to be done. What was also evident is that the problems and injuries women veterans face continue to be marginalized, as the event largely focused on male sexual function and infertility. This points to the lack of understanding and research on the issue as well as the need for more open and frank discussions on the topic.

At the start of the conference, Dr. Jean Orman, the chief of epidemiology and biostatistics at the U.S. Army Institute of Surgical Research in San Antonio, Texas, pointed out that in a VA-led study on Iraq and Afghan War veterans conducted from 2001-2011, genitourinary injury patients experienced more chronic pain, PTSD, and traumatic brain injury, or TBI, as well as infertility issues, compared to non-genitourinary injury patients. Often injuries to the genital area that result in complete or partial loss are looked upon as more severe than other amputations, especially to the patient who may also suffer loss of sexual function, PTSD, and infertility. Yet problems with sexual function do not just occur in genitourinary injury patients alone, but in patients suffering from PTSD and TBI as well. According to Military Times, between 2000 and 2013, almost 2,000 service members received debilitating injuries to their genital regions, and more than 307,000 troops experienced some type of head injury, which can impact sexual function and drive.

NCOS POINT THE WAY TO POST-ARMY SUCCESS

By Sgt. Maj. of the Army Kenneth O. Preston, U.S. Army retired

Five soldiers with a collective 120 years of experience have some words of wisdom for NCOs transitioning to civilian life. They appeared on a panel I moderated in New York City in June 2014 to give some tips about how to prepare for a post-Army life and get attention in a competitive job market. Their discussion comes at a time when transition is on the minds of many soldiers because of the drawdown that would trim the ranks by some 60,000 people over the next three years. If you are not going anywhere, there are people in your command who might be headed to civilian life who could use your sage advice.

Here are some of their thoughts.

Critical Thinking Is an Asset

One thing often missing in a private business is someone comfortable with making decisions without waiting for approval of a supervisor, said Matt Pelak, an Iraq War veteran and director of strategic partnerships at Team Rubicon Inc., a nonprofit group that organizes veterans to respond to requests for disaster relief. Having this skill makes you highly marketable.

As managers in an organization that thrives in uncertain and chaotic environments, Pelak emphasized that NCOs have the critical thinking skills and the ability to make level-headed decisions during operations without getting excited.

“NCOs are a shining example. They take the information they have, they know their commander’s intent, and they make decisions; not always a perfect decision, but generally always a 70 percent to 80 percent solution at that time, allowing the organization to push forward versus waiting for [a] 100 percent solution and not making a decision and feeling the need to call the boss,” Pelak said.

De Giorgi: Flexibility Is Key to Future Navy Ops

Adm. Giuseppe De Giorgi, chief of the Italian Navy

December 24, 2014 

The Italian Navy operation Mare Nostrum launched after a boat carrying migrants from Africa sank just off the Italian island of Lampedusa in October 2013, drowning more than 350 people.

The colossal wave of migration due to wars and poverty was becoming a humanitarian crisis and the Italian government tasked the Navy with an operation that had military, humanitarian and health aspects: capture the mother ships that towed migrant boats across the Mediterranean, stop the Mediterranean from becoming a sea of the dead, and ensure people with infectious diseases were identified before they entered Italian territory.

The results were extraordinary. We teamed with the police, NGOs, the Red Cross and the Italian health ministry and installed isolation chambers on vessels well before the Ebola crisis.

ABOUT THIS SERIES: Defense News asked 15 thought leaders in military, government, academia and industry -- from Europe to Asia to the US to the Middle East -- for their perspectives on their region and how they fit into world events. The result is a comprehensive collection of viewpoints that puts 2014 into context while forecasting the challenges -- and what must be done to meet them -- in 2015.(Photo: Staff) 

We used 32 vessels, saved over 150,000 people, arrested 366 traffickers and captured nine mother ships in operations carried out 350 nautical miles from the Italian coast. Submarines took images that helped Italian prosecutors write arrest warrants. We also needed to open fire to force vessels to stop as traffickers showed themselves to be good sailors as well as determined.

Following a decision by the Italian government on Oct. 31, and with the launch of a European Union operation, Mare Nostrum ended, but the Navy has made an operational center available to coordinate the assets being used and avoid overlaps in international waters where the Navy needs to be in charge.

The experience of Mare Nostrum has helped shape the design of Italy's new frigates, which are dual use and can engage in large-scale rescues. Openings on the sides of the vessels allow people to disembark from fishing boats as they would on a dock.

Newest U.S. Stealth Fighter ’10 Years Behind’ Older Jets

Dave Majumdar

12.26.14 

America’s $400 billion, top-of-the-line aircraft can’t see the battlefield all that well. Which means it’s actually worse than its predecessors at fighting today’s wars. 

When the Pentagon’s nearly $400 billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter finally enters service next year after nearly two decades in development, it won’t be able to support troops on the ground the way older planes can today. Its sensors won’t be able to see the battlefield as well; and what video the F-35 does capture, it won’t be able to transmit to infantrymen in real time. 

Versions of the new single-engine stealth fighter are set to replace almost every type of fighter in the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps inventory—including aircraft specifically designed to support ground troops like the A-10 Warthog. That will leave troops in a lurch when the F-35 eventually becomes the only game in town. 

“The F-35 will, in my opinion, be 10 years behind legacy fighters when it achieves [initial operational capability],” said one Air Force official affiliated with the F-35 program. “When the F-35 achieves [initial operational capability], it will not have the weapons or sensor capability, with respect to the CAS [close air support] mission set, that legacy multi-role fighters had by the mid-2000s.” 

The problem stems from the fact that the technology found on one of the stealth fighter’s primary air-to-ground sensors—its nose-mounted Electro-Optical Targeting System (EOTS)—is more than a decade old and hopelessly obsolete. The EOTS, which is similar in concept to a large high-resolution infrared and television camera, is used to visually identify and monitor ground targets. The system can also mark targets for laser-guided bombs. 

“EOTS is a big step backwards. The technology is 10-plus years old, hasn’t been able to take advantage of all the pod upgrades in the meantime, and there were some performance tradeoffs to accommodate space and stealth,” said another Air Force official familiar with the F-35 program. “I think it’s one area where the guys are going to be disappointed in the avionics.” 

Ironically, older jets currently in service with the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps can carry the latest generation of sensor pods, which are far more advanced than the EOTS sensor carried by the F-35. The latest generation pods—the Lockheed Martin Sniper ATP-SE and Northrop Grumman LITENING-SE—display far clearer high-definition video imagery in both in the infrared and optical spectrum—and from greater distances. Further, both pods have the ability to beam those full-motion video feeds to ground troops, which provides those forces with burial intelligence information. 

Rebranding The Land of Mongol Warriors & Ivan The Terrible

Anna Nemtsova

12.25.14 

Even as Putin stresses the rhetoric of Russkiy Mir, a plucky little republic called Tatarstan is trying to brand itself as a land of ethnic harmony—never mind its bloody history stretching back to the Golden Horde. 

Earlier this week, some Moscow elite—in a flurry of designer clothes and mink coats—boarded private jets and flew 500 miles east to Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan republic, famous for being Russia's driver of ideas and economic development. The purpose for the gathering was a unusual event, as it was the first time Russian region had come up with a conceptual brand for its image, one that would be recognizable to both local and international visitors, and attract more interest to a republic with a deep history long distinct from Russia's. 

In the light of current tensions with the West and President Vladimir Putin's rhetoric of strengthening Russkiy Mir, or the Russian World, the country—with its rich diversity of over 185 ethnic groups—is once again facing identity questions. Was Russia in its heart European or Asian? And could the word "Russkiy," or 'Russian', offend ethnically non-Russian citizens around the country? They live in 21 republics, besides the recently annexed Crimea, where the Crimean Tatars live, and each group is proud of its own culture and history. Tatars are the third largest ethnic group after Russians and Ukrainians—almost three million Russian citizens identify themselves as Tatars. 

Tatarstan, historically divided almost evenly between Muslims and Orthodox, Tatars and non-Tatars, has long prided itself on its diversity, and sees itself as a great example for Moscow and the rest of the country for how to come up with "a cultural code." The new authors of the brand, a publicity agency, are calling it "Heritage of Tatarstan," hoping to attract tourists to the region's picturesque landscape and make the Tatarstan homeland recognizable to the world. "[The city of] Kazan today is doing what Moscow was supposed to do the day before yesterday," said Sergei Brilyov, a famous Moscow journalist, and host at presentation in Kazan. 

Israel Navy to Expand Undersea, Surface Force

By BARBARA OPAL-ROME

December 23, 2014 

TEL AVIV, Israel — The Israel Navy is finalizing plans to integrate a fifth Dolphin-class submarine and a new fleet of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) into its operational force structure in the first few months of the coming year.

By mid-2015, the service expects to receive INS Rahav, the fifth of six nuclear-capable submarines built by Germany's Thyssen-Krupp Marine Systems (TKMS) shipyard and partially funded by Berlin.

A top procurement officer said INS Rahav should arrive here "in a few more months" after nearly seven years of engineering, construction, systems integration and testing in Kiel, Germany.

By that time, he said the Navy will have readied the personnel and infrastructure needed "to protect, preserve and maintain" the newest addition to its undersea force.

INS Rahav was inaugurated in April 2013 at the TKMS shipyard in Kiel and is entering the final phase of sea trials.

Like the INS Tanin, deployed here Sept. 23 and the sixth submarine still under construction, INS Rahav features an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system that allows for extended mission range and endurance.

Also by mid-2015, the Navy hopes to conclude operational certification of three locally built Protector USVs that form the backbone of Israel's new unmanned surface fleet.

China raises Nepal aid 5-fold to compete with India

Saibal Dasgupta

Dec 26, 2014

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi waves following his arrival at Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu, on December 25, 2014. (AFP photo)

BEIJING: In what appears to be a straight competition for influence with India, China has increased its official aid to Nepal by more than five times. China has also promised to build electricity infrastructure in Nepal worth $1.6 billion to counter an Indian offer of soft loan for the power sector.

Chinese aid to the Himalayan nation will rise from the present level of $24 million to $128 million in 2015-16. The announcement came after talks between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Nepali counterpart Mahendra Bahadur Pandey in Kathmandu on Friday.

Besides, Beijing is building a police academy for Nepal as a special gift. This is probably because Nepalese police help control the flow of Tibetan refugees trying to enter India through Nepal.

"As neighbors China and Nepal have common security needs ... we need to work together to crack down on illegal border crossings and transnational crimes," Wang said.

Nepali elite have for sometime complained that India has taken its relationship with the country for granted, and has not done enough to meet its development aspirations. China appears to be filling in the gap besides competing with Indian companies in Nepal's power sector.

The Langtang mountain range towers over the Kathmandu valley, hidden under a blanket of cloud, as seen from Bhanjyang on the outskirts of Kathmandu on December 10, 2014. Nepal is located between India to the south and China to the north. Agriculture is the mainstay of the country's economy (AFP photo)

India has announced a $1 billion soft loan to built the country's infrastructure including power projects. Nepal's hydropower sector has a potential to generate up to 42,000MW of electricity.

North Korea blames US for internet outages

Dec 27, 2014

North Korea experienced Internet problems last weekend and a complete outage of nearly nine hours before links were largely restored on Tuesday.

SEOUL: North Korea accused the United States on Saturday of being responsible for Internet outages it experienced in recent days amid a confrontation between them over the hacking of the film studio Sony Pictures. 

North Korea's main internet sites experienced intermittent disruptions early in the week for reasons that US tech companies said could range from technological glitches to a hacking attack. 

"The United States, with its large physical size and oblivious to the shame of playing hide and seek as children with runny noses would, has begun disrupting the Internet operations of the main media outlets of our republic," the North's National Defence Commission said in a statement. 

"It is truly laughable," a spokesman for the commission said in comments carried by the North's official KCNA news agency. 

The spokesman again rejected an accusation by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation that North Korea was behind the cyber attack on Sony Pictures and demanded the United States produce the evidence for its accusation. 

"Obama had better thrust himself to cleaning up all the evil doings that the US has committed out of its hostile policy against (North Korea) if he seeks peace on US soil. Then all will be well." 

North Korea experienced Internet problems last weekend and a complete outage of nearly nine hours before links were largely restored on Tuesday. 

U.S. officials said Washington was not involved. 

Following the hacking attack on Sony, the studio cancelled the release of a comedy called "The Interview", about the fictional assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. 

After criticism from President Barack Obama that it was caving into pressure from North Korea, Sony reversed its decision and decided on a limited release. 

The film took in more than $1 million in a Christmas Day release in 331 mostly independent theatres after large movie theatre chains refused to screen the comedy following threats of violence from hackers.

Ukraine, pro-Russia rebels swap war prisoners

Dec 27, 2014

Ukraine handed over 222 prisoners and the rebels released 145 people, according to Russia's state RIA Novosti news agency — the biggest one-time prisoners swap since the pro-Russian insurgency flared up in eastern Ukraine in April. (AP photo)

DONETSK, Ukraine: Ukrainian authorities and pro-Russia rebels exchanged nearly 370 prisoners on Friday, a major step toward easing hostilities in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine handed over 222 prisoners and the rebels released 145 people, according to Russia's state RIA Novosti news agency — the biggest one-time prisoners swap since the pro-Russian insurgency flared up in eastern Ukraine in April.

The Interfax news agency quoted Svyatoslav Tsegolko, a spokesman for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, saying that 146 Ukrainian prisoners were released on Friday and another four will be freed on Saturday. The figures corresponded to an earlier Ukrainian official statement, which said that 150 Ukrainian prisoners were to be released.

Hundreds of others were released during previous months.

Numbers of those to be released varied on Friday and tensions were flying high as buses carrying the prisoners arrived at a site north of the main rebel stronghold of Donetsk.

At some point during the exchange, separatist rights ombudsman Darya Morozova was quoted by Tass news agency as saying that the exchange was pushed back until Saturday.

Russia's state television showed Ukrainian war prisoners boarding buses in the main rebel stronghold of Donetsk before being driven to a location north of the city where the exchange took place.

On the site where the swap was conducted, prisoners were called up by groups of 10 with officials from both sides verifying their identities.

The exchange had been tentatively planned for earlier this week, and the failure to conduct it pushed back another round of Ukraine peace talks in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, which was set for Friday but was adjourned indefinitely

An officer from a volunteer battalion holds a family member, after returning home to the Ukrainian capital from the war conflict with pro-Russian separatists in the country's east, in Kiev, Ukraine, Saturday, December 6, 2014. 

Fifty shades of saffron

SATYABRATA PAL

December 27, 2014

PTI"Narendra Modi can pay tribute to Sardar Patel by making India proud rather than building his statue." Picture shows him with BJP leader L.K Advani in Kevadia village, Gujarat.

The danger now is that under an overtly Hindu government, discriminatory practices against the most vulnerable people will flourish even more

On December 11, 2014, when the U.N. General Assembly adopted June 21 as the International Day of Yoga, as recommended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India rejoiced. Never mind that the day before was the first Human Rights Day under his watch; this crept by unnoticed.

At the SAARC Summit, Mr. Modi declaimed, “As we seek to build bridges to prosperity, we must not lose sight of our responsibility to the millions living without hope.” He was, as always, matchless as a kathakar, an artiste whose fabulous retelling of fables reinforces them in the minds of the faithful as fact. But while his performances have zero defects, on the lives of the multitudes hanging on to his words, believing in them and daring to hope, they have had zero effect so far, because the responsibility of which the Prime Minister spoke is usually ignored.

In 1990, the U.N. launched the Human Development Report based on the challenging predicate that “people are the real wealth of a nation.” How wealthy are we really? After two decades of rapid GDP growth, we bestride SAARC like a colossus doing the splits, one foot splayed eastward to keep China out, the other westward to keep Pakistan down. We loom like a giant among midgets, but on every parameter that measures equity in development, there is little to choose between us and our neighbours.

The Human Development Index (HDI) for 2014 ranks us at 135 among 187 countries; Sri Lanka at 73 did way better than us, and we were shadowed by Bhutan at 136, Bangladesh at 142, Nepal at 145 and Pakistan at 146. The fact that India was a stable democracy, as the others were not, that our economy had galloped along, as theirs had not, had made very little difference to the lives of our citizens.

Within the HDI, the Gender Inequality Index which measures three critical parameters — reproductive health, women’s empowerment and their participation in the labour market — is particularly important because it shows how a society treats its more vulnerable half. Sri Lanka at 75 is well ahead of us, but so is Nepal at 98, Bhutan at 102 and Bangladesh at 115. India is in lock-step with Pakistan, both ranked at 127. The Criminal Law Amendment Act, which brought in far-reaching measures to protect women, is now almost two years old; sadly, it has made little difference.

Depth of deprivation

A template for teacher education

ROHIT DHANKAR

December 27, 2014

None of our Teacher Education programmes has ever seriously tried to achieve a clear and convincing enough understanding of what one tries to achieve through education. It always has been a rhetoric of larger aims and working for myopically understood parental and market aspirations

All curricula are situated in contexts and are simultaneously guided by ideals. Therefore, an understanding of and a balance between the two is essential.

We have succeeded in creating an education system that discourages good education in every possible way. It is largely apathetic to the quality of education and the fate of children. The mindset that governs thinking and the actions of the functionaries of education in the government are to somehow manage the naukari and to reap the benefits of the job on the basis of seniority. The thought of doing a good job rarely comes to mind if it ever does. The idea of reform and improvement remain at the level of rhetoric. In this system, any teacher who wants to work for good education has to work on his or her own and without much support. He or she also has to overcome varied forms of resistance.

Obstacles before the teacher

In schools, the quality of education revolves around issues such as a school uniform, heavy school bags, mark sheets and some semblance of having the English language and infrastructure in place. Parents are conscious of the need for quality education, with upward mobility in the form of well-paying jobs being uppermost in their minds. This is a legitimate expectation, but parents and schools see the path to well-paying jobs through so-called English medium and high-fee charging schools. From there it moves on to children studying in private universities, now a dime a dozen, and which all proclaim to produce leaders.

Children’s lives, even in the rural areas, now revolve around television and in various activities on the mobile phone. Hence, the motivation to ensure that a child has a worthwhile education enabled by a wholesome learning experience has to be created by the teacher. Even if the child is a natural and enthusiastic ‘learner’, that all learning is equally worthwhile is an unexamined assumption. Therefore, the teacher has to direct the efforts of the child towards this goal. This is a difficult job.

Let’s focus on the teacher. In the general atmosphere of economic competition and consumerism, a teacher legitimately desires leading a good economic and social life. The teacher has to constantly fight with her visibly low status in society, which saps her enthusiasm for good teaching.

Education is increasingly becoming centric to the government’s thinking in order to realise the desire for India’s economic competitiveness in a globalised world. Thus, the purpose of education can be well served by having a layered education system. One part of that system can take the responsibility of mass producing “narrowly skilled” people with a limited vision of life and completely sold out on shining promises of consumerist hedonism. Another part could produce a limited number of people who can think relatively better regarding skills and theoretical knowledge, but still remain wedded to promises of economic growth.

Obviously, in each point mentioned in the system, namely the parent, the child, a teacher’s ambitions and the government, there exists many alternative ideas and serious efforts as well. I have painted this grim picture in order to claim that this is the dominant mood and in spite of there being many people who want to do something better. The purpose of citing these instances is not to deny the positive aspect, but to make the point that a teacher has to work in an adverse scenario and be on the lookout to identify genuine elements in the system to collaborate and work with.

The ideals

The issue is this: what is the kind of Teacher Education (TE) curriculum needed that can help a new teacher enter this scenario with confidence and to work effectively? The context-centric thinking has a natural tendency to privilege status quo without the thinker being conscious of this problem. One starts thinking of ways of survival in the face of adverse elements in the context and loses sight of the larger purpose, thereby reinforcing the context as it is. This is producing a tendency to take the context as given and planning education that seems possible in the given limitations. In the process, the limitations gain acceptance while the quality of education becomes a variable to be adjusted with them. The teacher has to strive for quality; not only for survival.

But why should the teacher struggle? It is much easier and personally beneficial for him to go along with the system. What motivation could there be to challenge it? And, strive for what? What should he try to achieve? What are the kind of tools to be used? These abstract questions are very pragmatic ones if we are to develop an effective TE curriculum.

One definite requirement to work well is to have an idea of what one is working for and an ability to divert one’s efforts towards enabling worthy goals and a vision. Therefore, a personal examination of goals and vision proposed by the system is essential in order to create commitment for a task. This requires a reasonable amount of intellectual autonomy; it may be weak and limited autonomy perhaps, but autonomy nonetheless.

A teacher needs to build an intellectually, ethically and socially satisfactory, if not exciting, life for herself as a thinking being. Also, a possibility for continuous personal development is essential in order to contribute towards creating good education. Usually, creating opportunities for such development is supposed to be the job of the system; but in the situation we have, the poor teacher has to fend for herself.

A commitment to good education will also require an understanding of the need for education in people’s lives and society, and a reasonable dose of dreams. People seem to be creatures of dreams to a large extent, and there is no contradiction between being creatures of dreams and being situated in socio-political reality as embodied creatures. The trick is to create dreams that have intellectual conviction as well as pragmatic possibility.

The need for capabilities to teach is obvious enough. But these capabilities have to be rooted in what one wants a child to achieve through education, an understanding of the child, and the society in which both the child and the teacher live. This demands a serious theoretical understanding of the same, boring and age-old questions: Why teach? What to teach? And, how to teach?

Practical skills

None of our TE programmes has ever seriously tried to achieve a clear and convincing enough understanding of what one tries to achieve through education. It always has been a rhetoric of larger aims and working for myopically understood parental and market aspirations. This confusion has made education non-serious to both — a case of na khuda hi mila na wisaal-e sanam. We are prone to see the failure of TE in the lack of practical skills. However, a deeper analysis is likely to show that the failure is primarily theoretical. Practical skills, however well taught, usually do not answer the question “why” and, therefore, do not generate conviction and commitment — essential ingredients in good teaching. There is a reasonable unexplored possibility that adequate understanding of and conviction in the “why” along with guidance in teaching skills may produce a variety of viable methods. Therefore, the issue is not where to start from — is it theory or from practice? It is to traverse the whole continuum whatever one’s chosen starting point is. If one starts at theory, then it is about bringing it right down to the classroom level and in terms of actual skills; if starting with classroom work, it is about taking it to issues of serious theoretical understanding. A half-finished or half-hearted job, irrespective of the starting point, will remain unsuccessful. A display of bias in any direction will also be counterproductive.

In concrete terms, a teacher has to have a range of capabilities. A tentative first listing could look like this: capability to teach all school subjects at the primary level and at the least, one at the upper primary level. This will involve practical activities, the use of materials, and connecting with children. It will also demand an understanding of the subject in terms of its content, epistemology and rationale in the curriculum; adequate understanding of the curriculum and its rationale. It will necessarily involve understanding the aims of education, the need for education in an individual’s life and in social life; a convincing dream of a desirable society and living a satisfactory life. And situating oneself and the child in this dream; self-confidence and a conviction to work in an either indifferent or adversarial education system; a professional conviction that one can find ways for personal growth and development as a teacher, and a capability to generate episodes of reasonable success in order to keep that hope alive.

What kind of curricular content and institutional experiences will develop these qualities is what will have to be worked out seriously, with care and in detail. It seems that without these capabilities, teacher education is unlikely to have any effect on the system. We also have to discard the rhetoric of “change agents” and replace it with an unglamorous idea of doing one’s job adequately to one’s personal and social satisfaction, and as a plain and simple worker.

(Rohit Dhankar is with the Azim Premji University, Bangalore, and is honorary secretary, Digantar, Jaipur.)

Who Should Worry About Pakistan’s School Carnage?

By Malik Siraj Akbar

December 26, 2014

Is the tragic Peshawar massacre a symptom of Pakistan’s continued tolerance of the Taliban? 

Pakistan has a unique relationship with terrorism: It is safe ground for terrorist training and offensives, it is a regular victim of terrorism, and, at the same time, it is a state that is perceived as an apologist and a justifier of terrorism. Pakistan’s complicated struggle with jihadists is no clearer than now in the aftermath of the Taliban school massacre in Peshawar that killed more than 130 children.

It is not the right time, some may argue, to point fingers at the Pakistani army and intelligence agencies, which for years have had connections with and even supported the same jihadist elements that carried out the attack. After all, most of the children who were killed in the Peshawar attack by the Taliban were presumably from military families. Some would insist that tragedies like this one should convince the world that the Pakistani army is paying a heavy price for its engagement in an operation against the Taliban – a Taliban spokesman confirmed that the attack was meant to avenge an ongoing operation against them in the country’s tribal regions bordering Afghanistan.

The core problem with the army’s commitment to the fight against the Taliban is that not everyone in the ranks of the armed forces is fully convinced that this is Pakistan’s war. The soldiers are not fully motivated to fight this war because they believe that their bosses are killing “fellow Muslim brothers” on the instructions of the Americans, while the real decision-makers in the army and the intelligence agencies believe that absolute abandonment of the jihadist ideology may lead to catastrophic consequences for Pakistan’s long-term interests in Afghanistan and the disputed territory of Kashmir.

In other words, the Pakistani military strategists refuse to concede that they have lost control over the jihadists. Meanwhile, the architects of the pro-jihad policy suffer from an overconfidence syndrome and mistakenly believe that they are still fully capable of shutting down the jihadist franchise whenever they wish to do so. If that is true, then, according to the army’s standards, the Peshawar attack is not the worst that could happen.

Tragedies like the Peshawar school massacre need explanation but they do not get clear answers because their aftermath is heavily dominated by emotions. But a grand tragedy as big as the Peshawar carnage does provide the Pakistani government with a unique opportunity for self-reflection. Seen from past experience, such as the high profile shooting of the pro-education teenage campaigner Malala Yousafzai by the Taliban, the Pakistanis have missed opportunity after opportunity.

Not only are there too many distractions that always deflect attention from an earnest national debate about sincerely fighting the Taliban, there are powerful pressure groups, such as the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, a right-wing party led by former cricketer Imran Khan. People like Khan, an ardent supporter of Pakistan’s negotiations with the Taliban, are highly influential in confusing the Pakistani masses, especially young people, about whether the Taliban deserve political accommodation or whether they should be eliminated. Khan and his supporters might be correct that military operations cannot solely resolve the Taliban challenge. However, Khan’s rise has taken Pakistan’s Taliban challenge to a more advanced or possibly even irreversible level where, for the first time, the Taliban have strong political supporters and defendants in mainstream politics.

Pakistan Responds to the Peshawar School Massacre

By Mina Sohail

December 26, 2014

Intense public outrage is forcing the government to step up its fight against terrorism.

Mohammad Hilal, 16, lies motionless on his bed in the Lady Reading Hospital in Peshawar. He is one of the survivors of the December 16 massacre at the Army Public School, which left 145 dead, including 132 children. Five young men give Hilal a firm handshake, placing flowers behind him on the windowsill.

“These men aren’t Hilal’s friends,” says Nahida Bibi, a nurse in the male Orthopaedics B ward. “Every day, people from nearby areas and cities come to meet these children and comfort their parents.” Bibi has been working at the hospital for less than two weeks, and already she has been exposed to what many now regard as Pakistan’s 9/11. “When Hilal came here, he had severe fever and would bleed a lot,” she says. “He still has shoulder and lower limb injuries but is recovering slowly.”

Hilal’s father, Mohammad Bilal, is a gardener at his son’s school. Locked inside a room with his colleagues until the commandos and Special Services Group (SSG) had overcome the seven terrorists inside the school building, he was told that no child had survived. “When the siege ended, I went straight to the military hospital and found my son bleeding,” he says, overcome with emotions of relief and bliss. “I will take my son back to school once it reopens and he recovers,” says Bilal. “If we don’t go, then it means we have lost.”

When the terrorists entered the school auditorium, more than 100 kids – mostly from grades 8, 9 and 10 – were taking part in a first aid training session. The seven gunmen entered the room shooting indiscriminately. Some of the children managed to stayed alive by pretending to be dead. Most were slaughtered.

Four days after the massacre, and the air is somber. While schools throughout the country remained closed for security reasons, the Army Public School is filled with dozens of children, who have donned their school uniforms and are strolling through classrooms, which now have craters in the walls. Most of the blood-splattered floors have been cleaned but bloodstains and shattered glass are still visible. Photographs of some of the victims, taken from their Facebook pages or provided by relatives, are placed on wreathes and posters that adorn a large portion of the school grounds.

The eerie silence in the school is in sharp contrast to the clamor in the rest of the country. In Islamabad, protests have been held outside the Red Mosque, whose chief cleric, Abdul Aziz, has refused to condemn the killings. Hundreds of protestors have shouted anti-Taliban slogans, holding placards of “Arrest Abdul Aziz.” The cleric’s obstinacy led marchers to lodge a police complaint (known in Pakistan as a First Information Report) against him on the second day of the protests.

CNN Interview: Husain Haqqani on the Pakistani Taliban School Attack

Husain Haqqani

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I’m Wolf Blitzer, reporting from Washington.

Let’s get back to our top story, slaughter in Pakistan. After one of Pakistan’s bloodiest days, there are defiant pledges to strike back against terrorism. But we must remember, this is a country that has been gripped by an insurgency now for more than a decade. The Pakistan Taliban, other terror groups, they’ve killed tens of thousands since Pakistan joined the United States in the war on terror.

We’re joined now by the former Pakistan ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani. He’s also the director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute here in Washington, a think tank.

Ambassador, thanks for coming in.

Who are these terrorists, these savages that can go into a school and say, if you’re below puberty, you’re not going to die, but if you’re 13, 14, 15, you’re dead? Why would these people do that to young school kids?

HUSAIN HAQQANI, FORMER PAKISTAN AMBASSADOR TO THEU.S.: Wolf, we’ve already seen Boko Haram in Nigeria which does the same thing. They’re all chips off the same block. They all believe in just wanting to overrun the countries where they are trying to wage wars and they want basically no one to learn anything that is modern. And they want their own way of life as they see it to be imposed on everyone by force. So they are savages. The issue is, how do we deal with it? And —

BLITZER: How? What’s the answer?

HAQQANI: And what we need essentially is that there is a lot of sadness today and there’s a lot of outrage in my country, Pakistan. And I share it. But we need to transform it into resolve. Pakistan has seen these attacks for many, many years. We’ve lost at least 20,000 civilians and more than 6,000, 7,000 soldiers fighting the menace. But unless and until we decide that all terrorists need to be eliminated and that their ideology needs to be delegitimized instead of saying they have some legitimate grievances against the West, basically no grievance actually allows something like what happened in Peshawar.

BLITZER: They don’t want any education, certainly not for girls, right?HAQQANI: They don’t want education for girls. They don’t want

Where Does Pakistan Go From Here?

By Hamza Mannan

December 24, 2014

Has the barbarity of December 16 finally changed the way Pakistan’s politicians view security?

In the same breath with which we applaud Malala Yusufzai for her Nobel Peace Prize, we mourn and grieve the loss of at least another 148 students and teachers, most of them children, working to fulfill her vision. Such is the enigma of Pakistan.

At a press conference marking the completion of the operation against the terrorists in the Army Public School in Peshawar, Inter-Services Public Relations Director General Asim Bajwa said this was the “Blackest Day” in Pakistan’s history. Each year in Pakistan dates on the calendar are darkened, some a shade darker than others. None quite as dark as December 16: The Express Tribunethe morning after led with the headline “Our Darkest Hour,” TV-stations blackened their logos, and in a show of solidarity people on social media changed their display pictures to a black screen.

After a period of introspection and mourning, Pakistan will have to answer a tough question: Where does it go from here?

Perhaps this attack will help forge a certain unity. A coherence around a national narrative against terrorism has hardly been the focus of the country. Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Center believes that Pakistan is nearing a “watershed moment” and that an attack such as this one will compel Pakistan’s vibrant civil society and middle class to end the distinction between the various shades of militant groups. There are no two ways about terrorism. Political parties such as the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) and the Jamaat-i-Islami, which have in the past argued against military operations, will find it harder to make that same argument. At the expense of many lives, Pakistanis may finally unite against a common enemy. Steps to this effect are being taken. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif convened a multi-party conference to renew dialogue on security policy, and PTI assembled a parliamentary committee meeting to address the very same issue. Sharif also stated that there “will be no differentiation between the ‘good’ and the ‘bad’ Taliban and [we] have resolved to continue the war against terrorism until the last terrorist is eliminated.” Other important players such as Imran Khan, leader of the PTI, added: “Today, we all agreed that a national plan to eliminate terrorism should be prepared.”

The logic guiding the Taliban’s attack on the Army school was twofold: to inflict the same pain on the children of the Armymen that the families of the militants felt and to signal to the Army that despite a reduction in attacks and civilian casualties, the terrorist network is still alive and well. In the short term, what is certain is the resolve of the Army (and now perhaps the country) in continuing the operation in Waziristan. The day following the attack, Sharif removed the six-year moratorium that had been set on the death penalty in cases involving terrorism. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan followed this decision by announcing plans to execute 500 convicted terrorists whose appeal had been denied. While strict accountability and oversight over this procedure will now be required, it did send a tough signal to the Pakistani Taliban and other militant outfits. Moreover, the Army has already launched retaliatory strikes, leading to the deaths of dozens of militants. Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif, who during his recent trip to Washington won praise from the Obama administration, also made a trip to Kabul on Wednesday to discuss intelligence sharing with Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani. Soon thereafter, Afghanistan and Pakistan launched coordinated operations in the eastern Kunar province, where TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah is said to be hiding. These cooperative actions will help reduce uncertainty over each other’s intentions, a problem that has plagued Af-Pak relations for the greater part of the last decade.

Pakistan’s reaction to the Taliban’s child massacre is more than ‘vengeful bloodlust’

By Mina Sohail 

December 23 Follow @MinaSohail

Ending the ban on executions of terrorists in Pakistan was necessary.

Mina Sohail is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad. She is a graduate of the New York University.

Pakistani students chant slogans to condemn the Taliban’s attack on a military-run school in Peshawar, during a demonstration in Karachi. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan) 

A commando led me through the Pakistan school auditorium Saturday where terrorists had interrupted students’ lessons with an indiscriminate barrage of bullets four days earlier. The floor had been scrubbed clean of students’ blood, but craters still marked the walls like augmented bee holes in a plank. The officer, still visibly shaken, stared somberly at the spots where he had seen the splattered brains of children during the military’s counter attack. Seven Taliban gunmen slaughtered 148 people — 132 of them children — before they were stopped. 

Across the sprawling 21-acre campus, the victims’ youthful faces smiled from photos placed on memorial wreaths. Amidst the tributes to the children were handwritten messages promising retribution against Tehrik-e-Taliban, the group behind the massacre: “We will hang them,” “We will crush TTP,” “We will never forget you and make them pay.” 

Memorials for the victims of Pakistan’s deadliest terror attack lie outside of the Army Public School. (Mina Sohail) 

Two days after the school attack, Pakistan ended its six-year unofficial ban on the death penalty in terror cases. Six terrorists convicted on previous terrorism charges have been hanged, and it appears the government is planning to execute hundreds more. Pakistanis, enraged by the child massacre, have widely supported the hangings, but the international community has been critical of the sudden move. Amnesty International called Pakistan’s lifting of the death-penalty moratorium a “knee-jerk reaction that does not get at the heart of the problem.” Human Rights Watch said, “Pakistan’s government has chosen to indulge in vengeful blood-lust.” 

Campbell: The New Mission in Afghanistan

US Army Gen. John Campbell, commander, NATO’s International Security Assistance December 23, 2014 

The year 2014 proved to be a time of critical transition in Afghanistan. Defying Taliban intimidation, more than 7 million Afghans participated in two nation-wide elections to select a new president, marking the first peaceful, democratic transition of power in Afghanistan's history.

The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) demonstrated their professionalism and capability, fighting tenaciously against a determined enemy, and preventing the Taliban from achieving any of its stated objectives for 2014. As a result, the ANSF have earned the Afghan people's trust and admiration and are now the most respected institution in the country.

For the past 13 years, more than 50 countries have contributed to the NATO mission in Afghanistan. No coalition of this size in history has demonstrated more cohesion, resilience or effectiveness.

ABOUT THIS SERIES: Defense News asked 15 thought leaders in military, government, academia and industry -- from Europe to Asia to the US to the Middle East -- for their perspectives on their region and how they fit into world events. The result is a comprehensive collection of viewpoints that puts 2014 into context while forecasting the challenges -- and what must be done to meet them -- in 2015.(Photo: Staff) 

On Dec. 31 the International Security Assistance Force mission will end. We will then commence our new NATO mission, Resolute Support.

The ANSF have shown throughout the past two fighting seasons that they can win battles on their own. They now need our assistance to win the campaign and build the institutional capability to organize, train and equip their forces. Hence, we have shifted our focus from advising them on tactical operations to building the long-term sustainability in their corps and security ministries.

This represents both a significant physical and mental shift for us. Back in 2011, we had more than 140,000 troops distributed over 800 sites. On Jan. 1, we will have about 13,000 coalition troops at 25 bases.

Our brave sergeants and captains used to be our primary means of carrying the fight to the enemy; now it is our experienced advisers —senior officers, NCOs and civilians — who serve as our "primary weapons systems." These highly skilled individuals will work through essential functions such as budgeting, programming, sustainment and force generation to build the systems required to sustain a modern army and police force. This remains a daunting challenge, but one that we can and will overcome.