Stop Exploiting Ferguson

Rebecca M. Miller

March 12, 2015

The shooting of two officers in Ferguson early Thursday morning will further inflame relations between the public and law enforcement in Ferguson. The shooting comes a little over a week after the Justice Department released a reportaccusing the Ferguson police department of blatant racial bias and a day after Ferguson Police Chief Thomas Jackson announced his resignation from the department, effective March 19.

St. Louis Police Chief Jon Belmar said in a press conference Thursday morning, “I don't know who did the shooting, to be honest with you right now, but somehow they were embedded in that group of folks.” However, some protesters at the scene, including self-proclaimed activist DeRay McKesson, maintain that the shooter was not among the crowd and was actually hundreds of feet away, perhaps atop a hill.

While these may seem like nothing more than premature conflicting witness statements, these two differing accounts mean a lot—a whole lot—especially in Ferguson. McKesson, a twenty-nine-year-old Teach for America and Bowdoin alum and founder of the Ferguson Protester Newsletter, is black. Chief Belmar, an Arkansas State and FBI National Academy alum, is white. It seems that the stage is set for yet another perfect storm in Ferguson.

After all, the Michael Brown case and subsequent protests created an even starker divide in Ferguson between the low-income predominantly black communities and the predominantly white local police force. And there have been many opportunists and interventionists who have taken advantage of this cleaving.

Russia and Ukraine's Medieval Love Affair

Matthew Dal Santo

March 11, 2015

The two countries' intertwined histories are rooted in Orthodox Rus'.

The new Minsk agreement is supposed to create a resolution for the Ukraine crisis. But while the conflict poses questions about international law and order for the United States and Europe, it remains for Russia a question of realpolitik, culture and history. Minsk is unlikely to bridge this gap, even if Western leaders cling to the hope that it will. Rather than setting themselves up for disappointment, they should pay attention Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy’sobservation that “any effort to understand Vladimir Putin must begin with the man of history. For Putin, . . . history is a crucial matter. . . . He appreciates the power of ‘useful history,’ the application of history as a policy tool, as a social and political organizing force that can help shape group identities and foster coalitions.”

While historical themes have always featured in Putin’s public statements, especially prominent themes in the Ukraine crisis have been Crimea’s significance as the site of Prince Vladimir of Kiev’s baptism in 988 and the fount of an East Slavic civilization based on Orthodoxy, and the Kremlin’s duty to defend the inhabitants of a “New Russia” (“Novorossiya”) consisting of the lands conquered by Catherine the Great (reign: 1762-96) in southern and eastern Ukraine. While “Novorossiya” has retreated to the margins of public discussion, Crimea continues to unite Russians. To convert that consensus into lasting support for Russia’s defense of its political interests in Ukraine, the Kremlin and its allies maintained a strong focus on Russia’s medieval history in the autumn and winter of 2014-15, foregrounding Russia’s non-Western values, the imperative of preserving national unity and the historical and cultural links uniting the East Slavic (Rus’) world. As Alexei Miller, a historian of public memory at the Russian Academy of Sciences, has written: “It is quite possible that in the historical perspective 2014 will be perceived as the beginning of the long process of mobilizing civil society on a platform that will be not only anti-liberal, but also nationalist.”

One example of this mobilization was the Orthodox Rus. My History: The Rurikids exhibition in Moscow’s Manege Exhibition Hall, 4-23 November 2014. Opened by Patriarch Kirill (“of Moscow and All Rus”: in the patriarchate’s view, this includes Ukraine) in Putin’s presence as part of National Unity Day celebrations, it welcomed a quarter of a million people—12,700 a day—in two weeks. A long tunnel of rooms in a snaking S-shape, it depicted the achievements of the twenty-one princes and tsars of the Rurikid dynasty in an epic style, relying heavily on nineteenth-century movements in Russian art. Bearded warrior-princes in flowing robes battled Khazars, Mongols and Swedes, guarded fortress walls, issued laws, built cities and received the blessings of churchmen. Wall maps showing additions and losses to the lands of Rus’ suggested the arbitrariness of Eastern Europe’s modern borders; banners bearing the exhortatory words and effigies of historians, philosophers, saints, patriarchs and presidents—including Putin twice—hung between them. Posters of “surprising facts” added a lighter note. But Rurikids’ message was serious: Russian (russkaya) civilization is exceptional, the Orthodox Church is the nation’s defining cultural institution and a strong, centralized state is crucial for guarding against foreign and domestic foes. Eighty official guides, mainly Orthodox seminarians, reinforced its themes.

CIA Needs to Become Cyber Literate Before It Can Operate On the Global Cyber Battlefield

Jane Harman

March 13, 2015

Op-Ed: How the CIA can get from spy to cyberspy

Agility and digital savvy traditionally haven’t been the strong suits of government agencies, so it’s encouraging that CIA Director John O. Brennan wants a big investment in cyberespionage and a new Directorate of Digital Innovation as part of what he calls a “bold” reorganization of the CIA. Brennan’s overhaul is commendable, but it’s urgent to do more to make his agency cyber literate.

Cyber competence isn’t just a set of technical skills; it’s a state of mind. Digital thinking must be baked into the CIA’s whole intelligence mission and its covert operations. No agency employee should be able to say “cyber” isn’t in their job description. As Brennan brings more hackers to Langley, Va., he should be careful not to let new walls rise between the new digital spies and those undercover. There’s precedent for this: The agency’s counter-terrorism center successfully dismantled silos between analysts and operators to track militants around the globe.

Next, the Directorate of Digital Innovation should think critically about what it means to conduct clandestine operations in the digital realm. Unlike drone specs or bomb schematics, code is very difficult to keep classified. Think of the Stuxnet virus. Even though it was written to attack a closed computer network, the code escaped onto the broader Web, where it was publicly dissected by digital security firms such as Symantec. Since then, more cyberespionage tools have been uncovered “in the wild,” meaning some are suddenly available to rogue nations and terrorists. As the CIA gets into this game, it should keep in mind the old admonition not to write down anything you wouldn’t want to see on the front page. In this case, be wary of writing code you wouldn’t want thrown back against your own networks.

Cyber competence isn’t just a set of technical skills; it’s a state of mind. - 

Bull’s-eye: The 5 Most Deadly Anti-Ship Missiles of All Time

Kyle Mizokami

March 13, 2015

After decades of rapid innovation, the end of the Cold War and the subsequent Global War on Terror all but halted anti-ship missile development in the West. A focus on land operations in the Middle East and Central Asia sent Western navies struggling for relevance.

As a result, navies adopted an emphasis towards supporting land forces and operating in the littoral zone. For the most part, ship to ship warfare was reduced to a 9,000-ton destroyer confronting a 2-ton pirate skiff.

As rising tensions with China and Russia make clear: ship-to-ship naval warfare is back. And with it, the need to reach out and sink enemy ships.

A new generation of anti-ship missiles (ASMs) are on the horizon. Stealthy, supersonic and autonomous, these missiles are adept at evading defenses and hunting individual ships. Let’s look at some of the more interesting ASMs, both deployed and in development.

Brahmos

Named after the Brahmaputra and Moscow Rivers, the Brahmos anti-ship missile is a joint Indian-Russian program. Developed through the 1990s and early 2000s, Brahmos is one of the few anti-ship missiles built during this time. It is currently in service with the Indian Armed Forces.

Brahmos is the fastest low-altitude missile in the world. The missile has two stages: the first, consisting of a solid-fuel rocket, accelerates Brahmos to supersonic speeds. The second stage, a liquid-fueled ramjet, accelerates it to Mach 2.8. The missile reportedly flies as low 10 meters above wavetops, making it what’s known as a “sea skimmer”. It has a range of about 290 kilometers.

Satellite Imagery Shows Syria Now Largely Dark at Night Because of War

March 12, 2015

Satellite Images Show Syria Conflict Leaves Country in Dark

UNITED NATIONS — Over the four years that researcher Xi Li has watched Syria’s civil war unfold through nighttime satellite imagery, he has seen the pinpricks of light that dotted the north and east fade and the Mediterranean coast darken until 83 percent of the country’s lights have gone out.

From a vantage point that few everyday people have seen, Li has produced a chilling measurement of a crisis that shows no sign of ending.

As the civil war moves into its fifth year, a global coalition of dozens of human rights and humanitarian groups released Li’s analysis late Wednesday and demanded a comprehensive effort to get aid to millions of Syrians.

"Satellite data never tell lies," the Chinese-born Li, a visiting scholar at the University of Maryland’s Department of Geographic Sciences, said in a phone call Wednesday. "The night images are very unbelievable. The Syrian people need help."

He has measured the levels of nighttime light across Syria since the conflict began in March 2011. His findings were published last year in the International Journal of Remote Sensing and came to the attention of the #withSyria coalition after a friend who does similar work at Columbia University put them in touch.

Because single images can be affected by cloud cover or other factors, Li came up with a monthly average image of nighttime light so it could be compared over the course of Syria’s conflict.

LI said 97 percent of the lights in Aleppo, Syria’s once-largest city, have gone out since the conflict began.

New Kaspersky Lab Report on New Trends and Tactics in U.S. and Other State Cyber Espionage Operations

March 11, 2015

Kaspersky Lab Reveals Latest Cyberespionage Tactics: Complexity and Modularity VS Functionality

Nation-state sponsored cyberespionage attacks are becoming more sophisticated, targeting carefully defined users with complex, modular tools, and keeping well under the radar of increasingly effective detection systems, Kaspersky Lab experts have concluded.

This new trend was confirmed during a detailed analysis of the EquationDrug cyberespionage platform. Kaspersky Lab specialists found that, following the industry’s growing success in exposing advanced persistent threat (APT) groups, the most sophisticated threat actors now focus on increasing the number of components in their malicious platform in order to reduce their visibility and enhance stealth.

The latest platforms now carry many plugin modules that allow them to select and perform a wide range of different functions, depending on their target victim and information they hold. Kaspersky Lab estimates that EquationDrug includes 116 different plugins.

“Nation-state attackers are looking to create more stable, invisible, reliable and universal cyberespionage tools. They are focused on creating frameworks for wrapping such code into something that can be customized on live systems and provide a reliable way to store all components and data in encrypted form, inaccessible to regular users,” – explains Costin Raiu, Director of Global Research and Analysis Team at Kaspersky Lab. – “Sophistication of the framework makes this type of actor different from traditional cybercriminals, who prefer to focus on payload and malware capabilities designed for direct financial gains.”

Other ways in which nation-state attackers differentiate their tactics from traditional cybercriminals include: 

Scale. Traditional cybercriminals mass-distribute emails with malicious attachments or infect websites on a large scale, while nation-state actors prefer highly targeted, surgical strikes, infecting just a handful of selected users. 

GLOBAL HAWK Surveillance Drone Operating Over Syria and Iraq Sets New Performance Milestone

March 11, 2015 

Hawk soars past 10,000 flying-hour milestone 

3/10/2015 - U.S. Air Forces Central Command Public Affairs — Shortly before dawn Mar. 7, an RQ-4 Global Hawk embarked on an Operation Inherent Resolve mission that sent the aircraft soaring past the 10,000 flying hour milestone at an undisclosed location in Southwest Asia.

RQ-4 Global Hawk aircraft 2019, or “A2019”, was the first block 20 and first RQ-4B model to arrive here on Oct. 16, 2010. It’s the first Global Hawk to reach 10,000 hour flying milestone. During its service, the aircraft has been providing support to warfighters by relaying communications between people and aircraft as well as enabling airstrikes on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant/Da’esh forces.

“This particular aircraft carries the Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) payload, which replaces the imagery sensors normally installed in the aircraft,” said Lt. Col. Anthony, launch and recovery element operations supervisor. “It is primarily a data and communications bridging node. It can support multiple bridges simultaneously across multiple radio types. We like to call it ‘Wi-fi in the sky’.”

Both manned and unmanned aircraft continue to fly in support of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance requirements for Operation Inherent Resolve. ISR helps coalition leaders gain better insight about the security situation on the ground, and strengthen the ability of Iraqi and Kurdish ground forces and their international partners to effectively counter ISIL.

The accomplishment of flying more than 10,000 hours was shared by the entire Hawk Aircraft Maintenance Unit and supporting units.

“It takes a team effort to maintain an aircraft,” said Staff Sgt. Paul, RQ-4 Global Hawk crew chief. “Every six months there is a new rotation with a new group of people who have helped maintain this aircraft since its arrival.”

Paul has been working with this aircraft off and on for just over nine months, most of which has been here in the area of responsibility.

New Satellite Imagery Shows No Sign of Imminent North Korean Nuclear or Long-Rage Missile Tests

Jack Liu and Nick Hansen

March 11, 2015

Despite recent tensions on the Korean peninsula over military exercises held by the United States and the Republic of Korea, commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site and the Sohae Satellite Launching Station indicate only activities associated with maintenance during the winter months are taking place. While both sites are likely at a sufficient state of readiness to move forward with a test if ordered to do so by the North Korean leadership, there are no signs of preparations. As a result, the North is unlikely to conduct a nuclear or missile test over the next few months.

At the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, satellite imagery from February 27, 2015 shows only minor changes from a little over a month earlier. Specifically: 

At the West Portal, at least three vehicles are now parked near the entrance to a new tunnel that has been under excavation. Digging appears to have stopped since there are no discernible changes to the spoil pile since mid-January 2015. Whether excavation will resume as warm weather returns is unclear. If it does not that may indicate the new tunnel is in the final stages of completion. 

There are no tire tracks into the Main Support Area, the site of significant vehicle and other activity in the run-up to the 2013 nuclear test. 

At the South Portal, tunnel entrances are now out of the shadows for the first time since September 2014. A few crates or boxes appear present, indicative of minor maintenance activity. 

Figure 1. West Portal Activity.

Image before © 2015 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. Image after includes material Pleiades © CNES 2015. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

The Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri) also appears to be dormant after a year of intense construction. Specifically: 

Snowden Docs Show That The Reach of New Zealand’s SIGINT Agency Is Now Global

Nicky Hager and Ryan Gallagher 

March 11, 2015 

New Zealand spies on Vietnam, China, India, Pakistan, South American nations and a range of other countries to help fill gaps in worldwide surveillance operations by the United States National Security Agency (NSA), documents show. The documents, obtained by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and shared with the Herald, highlight discrepancies between secret and official foreign policy adopted by New Zealand. They expose the extent of Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) contributions to the Five Eyes, a surveillance alliance New Zealand is part of alongside the US, Britain, Canada, and Australia.

In April 2013, weeks before Snowden finished gathering NSA documents and flew to Hong Kong, an NSA officer completed a top-secret review outlining what the GCSB contributes within the US-led alliance. 

The Herald analysed this document and others in collaboration with US news website The Intercept, which obtained them from Snowden. The NSA profile of the GCSB reveals the New Zealand organisation is running spying operations against 20 or more countries, including friendly nations and trading partners.

The eavesdropping stretches from India and Iran in Asia to isolated scientific bases in Antarctica. These countries are listed in the NSA report in a section headed “What Partner Provides to NSA”. 

The NSA officer’s review said the GCSB “continues to be especially helpful in its ability to provide NSA ready access to areas and countries … difficult for the US to access”. 

It said the “GCSB provides collection on China, Japanese/North Korean/Vietnamese/South American diplomatic communications, South Pacific island nations, Pakistan, India, Iran and Antarctica”. 

"Collection" means the GCSB conducts active surveillance on these countries and territories. The report also lists French South Pacific territories and Afghanistan as GCSB targets. The document, called "NSA Intelligence Relationship with New Zealand" and given a top-secret classification, was prepared by the NSA’s Country Desk Officer for New Zealand based in the agency’s headquarters in Maryland. 

New Zealand SIGINT Agency Targets China, Japan, North Korea and 20 Other Countries

Ryan Gallagher

March 11, 2015

New Zealand Targets Trade Partners, Hacks Computers in Spy Operations

New Zealand is conducting covert surveillance operations against some of its strongest trading partners and has obtained sophisticated malware to infect targeted computers and steal data, newly released documents reveal.

The country’s eavesdropping agency, Government Communications Security Bureau, or GCSB, is carrying out the surveillance across the Asia-Pacific region and beyond as part of its membership in the Five Eyes, a spying alliance that includes New Zealand as well as the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.

The documents, revealed on Tuesday by the New Zealand Herald in collaboration with The Intercept, expose more details about the scope of New Zealand’s involvement in the Five Eyes, and show that the agency’s reach extends far beyond its previously reported eavesdropping on at least ten small South Pacific nations and territories.

According to secret files from the National Security Agency, obtained by The Intercept from whistleblower Edward Snowden, GCSB is targeting about 20 different nations and territories in total and sharing the intercepted data with the NSA. A top-secret document dated from April 2013 notes that the New Zealand agency “provides [the NSA with] collection on China, Japanese/North Korean/Vietnamese/South American diplomatic communications, South Pacific Island nations, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Antarctica.”

Aside from eavesdropping on communications through traditional interception methods, such as by capturing signals as they are passing between satellites or phone cables, the New Zealand agency has also become directly involved in more aggressive methods of spying and cyberwar.

THE HUMAN ELEMENT IN ROBOTIC WARFARE

Paul Scharre

March 11, 2015

Editor’s note: This is the fourth article in a six-part series, “The Coming Swarm,” on military robotics and automation as a part of the joint War on the Rocks-Center for a New American Security Beyond Offset Initiative. Read the first, second, and third entries in this series.

The first rule of unmanned aircraft is, don’t call them unmanned aircraft. And whatever you do, don’t call them drones.

The U.S. Air Force prefers the term “remotely piloted aircraft” to refer to its Predators, Reapers, and Global Hawks. And for Predators and Reapers, that undoubtedly is a reflection of their reality today. They are flown by stick and rudder by pilots who just happen to not be onboard the plane (and sometimes are on the other side of the globe).

For aircraft like the Global Hawk, which is largely automated and does not require a pilot with stick and rudder, but rather has a person direct the aircraft via keyboard and mouse, the question of whether they are “remotely piloted” is a bit murkier.

Is piloting about a physical act – controlling the aircraft directly via inputs to the flight controls – or about commanding the aircraft and being responsible for the mission, for airspace deconfliction, and for making decisions about where the aircraft should go?

Historically, the answer has been both. But automation is changing that. It’s changing what it means to be a pilot. A person no longer has to be physically on board the aircraft to be considered a “pilot.” Nor do they need to be physically controlling the aircraft’s flight controls directly. The day will soon come when, because of automation, a person can “pilot” multiple aircraft at the same time. It is already technically possible today. The cultural presumption that a person can only command one aircraft at a time is stalling implementation of multi-aircraft control.

But that will change.

Is America Still a Military Superpower?

Harry J. Kazianis

March 12, 2015

As other nations gain some important military advantages, Washington must deal with sequestration.

No doubt talk around those always busy coffee nooks and hallways in DC think tanks these past few weeks centered around the question of America’s defense budget. And with various proposals floating around the corridors of power, great conservative think tank studies breaking down U.S. defense needs along with a spirited debate concerning the size of various armed forces like the navy, the conversation has certainly been flowing. And so it should, considering the times we live in.

America, in many respects, is a tired and weary superpower. Having fought two long and draining wars in Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11, many assumed that the nation rightly deserved some sort of “peace dividend.” And there is no doubt this makes sense—heck, it was done after the Cold War, why not now? 

After spending trillions of dollars in the Middle East in wars that certainly warranted spirited debate throughout America many assumed that Washington would stay engaged in the world but scale back its military might to something more affordable but still worthy of the title of “superpower.” With superpower interests— the world’s largest economy, treaty allies around the world we have sworn to protect and easy to see global interests like protecting things like the global commons—a superpower military is a must. 

Compounding America’s weary spell would be the hellacious Great Recession. Washington’s priorities naturally shifted to tackling the crisis. With a massive budget deficit and the nation staring down the worst financial disaster since the great depression, trimming the nation’s defense budget seemed to make even more sense. Cuts were expected by both sides of the aisle—but in a rational and reasonable manner.

AN AMERICAN IN HER MAJESTY’S MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

Scott Smitson

March 12, 2015

By any measure, the United Kingdom has been one of the most (if not the most) reliable military allies for the United States since World War II. From the Cold War onwards, through the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United Kingdom has played a vital role in supporting the United States in the preservation of the international system forged in the aftermath of the defeat of fascism in the mid-20th century. Against this backdrop, and despite the deep historical and functional ties that exist between the diplomatic, defense, and intelligence establishments of the United States and United Kingdom, it would come as a surprise to many that there is no permanent, uniformed U.S. military presence within the U.K. Ministry of Defence (MOD) dedicated solely to joint strategic planning.

At present, there exist rich and robust coordinating mechanisms between the uniformed service staffs of these two close allies (for example, the British Army Staff to U.S. Army Staff exchange program), operational headquarters (liaison officers and embedded operational planners at U.S. Geographic Combatant Commands and the U.K. Permanent Joint Headquarters), and military education systems within each nation. However, this dynamic is presentationally and functionally unbalanced at the strategic level. For while the U.K. MOD has a dedicated uniformed presence within the Pentagon, through the office of the Chief of Defence Staff Liaison to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and in Washington, D.C. through the British Defence Staff-U.S., the Department of Defense has no corollary within the Ministry of Defence or in Whitehall.

At a time when the U.S. government and defense establishment increasingly comments on the need to do more with partners and allies, the time is right and ripe to further enhance Anglo-American strategic planning and coordination through the establishment of a permanent, uniformed, and dedicated body of embedded strategic planners and Joint Staff Liaison Officers within the Ministry of Defence. This need is all the more critical following the end of major enduring coalition operations of the last decade in Iraq and Afghanistan, which in many ways provided the context and impetus for close strategic, operational, and tactical collaboration.

Modi's Trip and China’s Islands: The Battle for the Indian Ocean

By Darshana M. Baruah

March 11, 2015

With his Indian Ocean tour, the PM aims to counter Chinese influence among small island nations. 

As China continues to draw attention to the South China Sea with its land reclamation and creation of artificial islands, it is also important to look at Chinese activities in the not-so-contentious but strategically important Indian Ocean Region. Beijing, with the help of economic and commercial initiatives, is mapping out a web of influence by increasing its presence in the Indian Ocean. As I argued in a previous article published by The Diplomat, access to and control of the islands in the Indian Ocean is crucial for Beijing to secure its strategic interests in the region.

There are two reasons for China’s expansion into the Indian Ocean. First, some of these islands — such as Kyaukpyu — can prove to be China’s answer to its Malacca Dilemma, strengthening its energy security by reducing its dependence on the Strait of Malacca. Second, an increasing presence in the Indian Ocean is crucial in strengthening Beijing’s role as a key actor in the emerging security architecture in the Indo-Pacific. There is no doubt that China aspires to be a maritime power. Beijing realizes that to be considered as a great power, it must have a role and stake beyond its region — beyond the Western Pacific and throughout the Indo-Pacific.

Having attained a favorable status quo in the Western Pacific, China is now engaging with the island nations of the Indian Ocean through its investments and commercial initiatives. It is through its relationship and investments with these nations that Beijing aims to project itself as a resident power of the Indian Ocean, leading to a greater security role throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, unlike in the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean is already home to many resident middle powers, wary of China’s unilateral and hostile maritime policies. As a result, the possibility of increased Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean is leading to competition for geostrategic space, especially between India and China. This article looks at the island nations of Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles, against the backdrop of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Indian Ocean tour.

Maldives

How Much Does India ReallyNeed Iran?

By Jack Detsch

March 11, 2015

India has ceded to U.S. demands to reduce oil ties with Iran until an agreement is reached. Can they afford to do it? 

When Barack Obama traveled to India in January, his hosts put on a show. Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave Obama a ceremonial welcome at the Rashtrapathi Bhawan, the presidential palace, rolling out a red carpet flanked on both sides by well-disciplined soldiers, before treating him to a state dinner of mustard fish curry, gushtaba, and achari paneer. Performers dressed in traditional garb regaled the president and First Lady Michelle Obama with classic Indian dance and a musical number called “Yes We Can,” a homage to Obama’s campaign trail refrain.

While Obama and Modi discussed and publicized their views on several global issues during that visit, they remained relatively muted on one particular country: Iran, which provided 6 percent of India’s oil in 2013. That figure jumped by 40 percent last year, owing to reduced pressure from sanctions under an interim nuclear agreement reached in November 2013. Delhi has asked domestic refiners to make cutbacks to oil imports until negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (which includes the U.S., U.K., Russia, China, France, and Germany), can hash out a deal in Geneva. They’ve set a new deadline of June 30, 2015. The interim deal warns Iran’s oil customers to hold imports at 2013 levels – or face sanctions. The U.S.-India joint statement issued after Obama’s New Delhi visit included a perfunctory call for Iran to “assure the international community of the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme.”

New Delhi has made considerable headway in that effort. In February, India slashed oil imports from Iran to the lowest levels since July 2013, receiving just a tick over 100,000 barrels for the month. That was aided by thedecision of one leading petroleum company, Essar Oil, to reduce imports by nearly 40 percent in January.

Main CIA-Backed Syrian Rebel Group Has Collapsed And Given Its Weapons to Al Qaeda Affiliate in Syria

Patrick J. McDonnell, Nabih Bulos and W.J. Hennigan 

March 11, 2015 

Fall of U.S.-backed Syrian group casts doubt on plan to arm moderates 

The social media post features an odd incarnation of war booty: plundered sacks of dried lentils, humanitarian aid turned spoils of a punishing conflict. 

"For the Syrian people from the United States of America," reads a label superimposed on a stylized Stars and Stripes. 

The lentils — along with piles of weapons also shipped to Syria, including U.S.-made TOW antitank missiles — are apparently in the hands of an implacable foe: Al Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s official franchise in Syria. 

In recent days, Al Nusra and its adherents have gleefully uploaded images of foodstuffs and weapons purportedly captured after the group’s forces commandeered the former bastion of a U.S.-backed rebel faction known as Harakat Hazm, or Resolve Movement. 

"The lions of the Nusra [Front] found American lentils in the Hazm Movement’s headquarters," Mohammad Amin, an Al Nusra supporter, declared triumphantly in a Twitter message. "Is there any doubt left of [Harakat Hazm’s] apostasy?" 

It wasn’t the first time that weapons and other goods meant for a U.S. proxy force in Syria ended up in the hands of Al Nusra militants, but that has not stopped the Obama administration from doubling down on its strategy: The Pentagon has unveiled a new plan to vet and train about 15,000 Syrians rebels — dubbed moderates by U.S. officials — in Turkey, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. 

ACCEPTING AL QAEDA: THE ENEMY OF THE UNITED STATES’ ENEMY

by RC Porter 

March 11, 2015

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ print/140571

[1]Since 9/11, Washington has considered al Qaeda the greatest threat to the United States, one that must be eliminated regardless of cost or time. After Washington killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, it made Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s new leader, its next number one target. But the instability in the Middle East following the Arab revolutions and the meteoric rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) require that Washington rethink its policy toward al Qaeda, particularly its targeting of Zawahiri. Destabilizing al Qaeda at this time may in fact work against U.S. efforts to defeat ISIS.

There is no doubt that relentless U.S. strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan weakened al Qaeda by taking out the group’s central command and making it extremely difficult for it to plot attacks in the West. Pulverizing al Qaeda central also exacerbated difficulties it was already having in communicating with and supervising its various outposts. As a result, these branches either diverged from the parent organization’s strategy by fighting local regimes or overreached by targeting Muslim civilians, particularly Shiites. For example, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, formerly the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, carried out an unapproved attack in November 2005 that killed numerous civilians in Amman, which was also outside his area of responsibility. These distractions prevented the various branches from contributing much to al Qaeda’s overarching goal of fighting the West, or the “far enemy.” With the exception of its Yemeni subsidiary, al Qaeda’s franchises were largely limited to targeting the “near enemy” in their designated zones. And so, notwithstanding their contribution to the spread of al-Qaeda, its franchises were more of a liability than an asset to the brand name.

Suicide Bomber Kills 7 in Helmand Province, Afghanistan

March 10, 2015

Suicide car bomber kills seven, wounds 28 in southern Afghanistan 

LASKHAR GAH, Afghanistan (Reuters) - Seven people were killed and 28 others including five police were wounded on Tuesday when a suicide bomber blew himself up in his car outside the capital of Helmand in southern Afghanistan, a provincial official said.

Deputy governor Mohammad Jan Rasoulyar told Reuters the attack happened at a checkpoint set up by police on the outskirts of the capital city Lashkar Gah after they received intelligence of an impending attack.

"The suicide bomber blew himself up in his car among other civilians waiting to get searched," Rasoulyar said.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.

Afghan security forces have been struggling to defeat the insurgency as most U.S. and foreign troops withdrew at the end of last year.

Helmand saw some of the heaviest fighting between security forces and Taliban insurgents in 2014, with Afghan army and police suffering the country’s highest number of casualties in their bid to prevent the militants from taking over key districts.

Opening up, Myanmar finds itself in a tough balancing act

Dan Steinbock

11 March, 2015

Dan Steinbock says local needs must be met amid web of foreign interests

Myanmese students protesting against a controversial education bill clashed with police this week, resulting in injuries and arrests. Photo: Reuters

Six months before critical elections, tensions are mounting in Myanmar, at its borders and affecting great power relations. Recently, hundreds of Myanmese students protesting against a controversial education bill have been locked in a stand-off with security forces. Washington has expressed concern about the violence used against protesters.

Meanwhile, thousands of refugees have entered Yunnan following clashes between Myanmar's army and local communists. As a result, China has asked Myanmar to "lower the temperature" on the border.

The friction comes ahead of the general election, scheduled for late October or early November. Economically, Myanmar is experiencing rapid growth even though in the fiscal year 2014-15, growth in gross domestic product is expected to decelerate slightly, to 7.8 per cent, due to slower growth in the agricultural sector.

Meanwhile, foreign direct investment is expected to rise substantially above the US$4.11 billion figure for the previous year. The largest investors are businesses from Singapore, Hong Kong, Britain and China.

Over the medium term, the outlook for Southeast Asia's last tiger economy remains favourable, with long-term growth potential estimated at 7 per cent. Still, with increasing spending and attendant inflation pressures, near-term downside risks have increased.

From the US to the European Union, Myanmar is seen as a fascinating story of economic growth and human rights. After years of diplomatic isolation, economic and military sanctions, Washington relaxed curbs on foreign aid and relations were normalised in 2011. As the EU followed, Japan agreed to cancel US$2.7 billion in debt and pledged millions more in aid. Tokyo has also won the contract to modernise Yangon's crumbling urban transit system.

Of late, Washington has also expressed concern about human rights, intimidation of journalists and violence against the Rohingya Muslims.

China's Plan for Winning the Currency Wars

By Mark Gilbert

The currency wars are still rumbling on. Today, Thailand became at least the 21st country to cut interest rates so far this year, as everyone tries to make their currency cheaper than everyone else's. The Federal Reserve still seems on track to raise rates in June, turbocharging the dollar. But there's more than one way to win a battle. You can inflict increasing damage on your opponent, which is what most of the world is doing to the U.S. Or you can gain territory -- which is what China is doing as its currency steals more and more of the global market.

The U.S. dollar's continuing ascent against almost every other currency in the world is capturing all of the attention in the foreign exchange markets. It's on such a tear that even the stock market finally started paying attention yesterday, with the S&P 500 index having its worst day in two months. For U.S. companies, the greenback's 12-year high against the euro and 20 percent gain against the currencies of its biggest trading partners in the past year threatens to trash exports and crimp overseas earnings. "A stronger dollar is undoubtedly a headwind for U.S. exports right now, and it’s a headwind for overall GDP growth," Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said yesterday.

China Sentences 2 Men to Lengthy Prison Terms for Selling Hundreds of Photos of China’s New Aircraft Carrier to Spies

March 10, 2015

China jails two for selling military secrets, including details of aircraft carrier

(Reuters) - China has jailed two men for selling military secrets, including hundreds of photos of the country’s lone aircraft carrier, to foreign spies, state media reported on Friday, without saying which countries were buying them.

The state-controlled Dalian Daily said foreign intelligence services paid the men to send thousands of photos of military targets and projects, as well as recordings and other information.

Both were young, “ordinary workers” who used their access to military bases in Dalian, in the northeast, the paper said. One of the men, surnamed Han, was lured by a person posing as a journalist on a popular mobile chat application.

"The enemy hidden on the front lines has shown itself. In recent years foreign spies have used the internet as a battlefield for inciting rebellion within the enemy camp, and some young internet users have become the targets," the paper said. "The methods of the enemy may be cunning, but actually it is completely possible to guard against them."

The other, a 23-year-old surnamed Zhang, traveled to an air show in Beijing last summer and took hundreds of photographs of the Liaoning aircraft carrier. He also collected materials there at the behest of a foreign intelligence operative, the paper said.

They were eventually caught by public security authorities. Han was sentenced to 8 years in prison on January 29 and Zhang was sentenced to six years on February 12, the paper said.

China’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment.

In a similar case in November, a man was arrested for taking photos of an aircraft carrier base in the coastal city of Qingdao and selling them to a foreigner.

Chinese Official: Uyghurs Joining Islamic State

By Shannon Tiezzi

March 12, 2015

Xinjiang’s party secretary tells reporters some Uyghurs have joined Islamic State, raising security concerns. 

Xinjiang’s Party secretary told journalists on Tuesday that the Islamic State (IS) is successfully recruiting Uyghurs to join its ranks. Secretary Zhang Chunxian made the remarks in a press conference held on the sidelines of China’s National People’s Congress.

China’s Global Times had previously reported that around 300 Chinese nationals were fighting alongside IS. Last September, the Iraqi Defense Ministry claimed to have captured a Chinese national involved in the fighting. However, this was the first time a Chinese official publicly drew a link between Xinjiang extremists and IS.

Zhang said that Islamic State “has a huge international influence and Xinjiang can’t keep aloof from it and we have already been affected,” according to the BBC. Zhang called IS a global threat and said international efforts would be required to face the problem. So far, however, the U.S. has had little luck convincing China to support its military operations against IS.

Zhang also told reporters that Xinjiang officials “recently broke up a terrorist cell run by those who returned from fighting with the group,” according to China Daily. He declined to give any specific details, saying that secrecy was essential for ensuring security and preventing future attacks. In the past, human rights groups have criticized China for not revealing specific information regarding alleged terrorist activity in Xinjiang.

Beijing, like government around the world, is concerned about its citizens joining up with IS and other extremist groups and then returning home to carry out attacks after receiving training and fighting experiences. Zhang’s remarks are the first public indication that this fear is becoming reality; extremists from Xinjiang are traveling to Iraq and Syria to join IS, and at least some have made it back home to China.

China Blasts ASEAN Head for South China Sea Remarks

By Prashanth Parameswaran

March 12, 2015

Beijing scolds ASEAN’s Vietnamese chief for allegedly biased and false comments. 

China slammed the Vietnamese head of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Wednesday for a series of allegedly biased and false remarks on South China Sea disputes.

“Mr. Le Luong Minh has repeatedly made biased comments on the issue of the South China Sea, which were untrue and incompatible with his capacity as ASEAN secretary-general,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei said at a press briefing, according to Xinhua.

“We advise Mr. Le Luong Minh do his part as ASEAN secretary-general, stick to ASEAN’s neutrality on the South China Sea issue, and do more to promote the healthy development of China-ASEAN relations,” Hong added.

Hong also suggested that Le’s comments had damaged ASEAN’s image as a regional organization because he was making comments on behalf of one country rather than reflecting the consensus of the grouping more broadly.

A Reuters report, carried by several other international media outlets, noted that China may be reacting to Le’s comments on the South China Sea to The Manila Times last week.

In that interview, published March 4, the secretary general, who is also a veteran Vietnamese diplomat, said that the four ASEAN claimants – Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam – could not possibly accept China’s nine-dotted line because it was not in accordance with international law, specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

“All ASEAN claimants protest [against] the dotted line [concept] because it’s not [in accordance with the] commitment [to] UNCLOS and the dotted line covers 90 percent of the South China Sea. There is no way it can be accepted by any party to the UNCLOS,” Le had said.

He also noted that what has been happening in the South China Sea is “impacting” ASEAN’s efforts to forge a more cohesive community, which is why the grouping considers efforts to reach a solution – including through a binding code of conduct – “conducive to maintaining peace and stability.”

Chinese Admirals Spill the Beans on New Aircraft Carrier

By Shannon Tiezzi

March 12, 2015

The Liaoning during during refurbishment in Dalian Shipyard in 2012.

For the first time, PLAN officers provide details on China’s second aircraft carrier. 

Chinese media are abuzz with a report (originally published by Hong Kong Commercial Daily) confirming construction on China’s second aircraft carrier – the first entirely indigenously produced carrier in China’s fleet. While there have been numerous rumors that construction is underway on a companion to the Liaoning (the first aircraft carrier commissioned into the Chinese Navy), the new report is different in a few respects: one, it directly cites named PLA officials as sources (all of whom confirm the construction) and two, it mentions specific ways the new carrier will improve on the capabilities of the Liaoning.

First, the sources: Admiral Liu Xiaojiang, formerly a political commissar of the PLAN; Vice Admiral Ding Haichun, a deputy political commissar of the PLA Navy; and Rear Admiral Ma Weiming, a PLAN expert in “naval propulsion and electrical engineering” (often-honored for his contributions to Chinese military technology). As Chinese media reports noted, this marked the first time PLAN officers publicly acknowledged the construction of a second aircraft carrier (although there have been rumors about the project for years). Previous reports seeming to confirm the construction were quickly scrubbed from the Chinese internet.

As for new technology, Rear Admiral Ma said China has tested a new launch system “many times” and that all tests so far have gone quite smoothly. Ma spoke of “breakthroughs” in an electromagnetic catapult launch system for the new carrier. The new technology will set it apart from the Liaoning, which uses a more-outdated “ski jump” launch system. Breakthroughs in developing a catapult system would result in an “enormous increase” in the flight radius and payload of carrier-based aircraft, Ma said. With this technology, Ma claimed, China will be on par with or even more advanced than the United States.

Ma would not confirm, however, that the new technology was being used on the carrier currently under construction. Admiral Liu said the new carrier would “definitely” have areas of improvement over the Liaoningbut declined to provide any specifics, saying the construction process is “extremely complicated.”

India's Got a Plan For South China Sea Disputes (And China Won't Like It)

By Ankit Panda

March 11, 2015

India’s got a preferred solution for South China Sea disputes — and it’s not a surprise. 

In recent years, India has started to become increasingly more vocal about what it feels is the correct way for the five main territorial disputants in the South China Sea to resolve their differences. What’s particularly interesting is that the rhetoric coming out of New Delhi seems to be growing more specific and pointed as time goes on. Early on Wednesday, the Manila Times reported that that Indian ambassador to the Philippines, Shri Lalduhthlana Ralte, said that India explicitly supported international law and arbitration in resolving these disputes. “Our view with that such kind of disputes [is that], the claimant countries should observe international law and norms that disputes are to be settled peacefully. We should allow ourselves to be subjected to international law,” Ralte said, according to the report.

The ambassador’s comments bookend a string of policy statements by New Delhi that mostly began in 2013. Back then, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, speaking at the East Asia Summit, noted that “A stable maritime environment is essential to realize our collective regional aspirations.” Keen to make his approval known for multilateral processes in Southeast Asia (which I recently expressed some skepticism about), Singh added: “We welcome the collective commitment by the concerned countries to abide by and implement the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and to work towards the adoption of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea on the basis of consensus. We also welcome the establishment of the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum for developing maritime norms that would reinforce existing international law relating to maritime security.”

Those statements failed to draw much attention. Beijing probably raised its eyebrows at New Delhi’s interest in the South China Sea, but there was little in the prime minister’s statements that suggested a firm backing for a specific resolution mechanism. In early 2014, Shri Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (East) of India’s Ministry of External Affairs, pushed the Indian position a bit further into the realm of clarity. “We advocate that the lines, the channels of trade and communication should be kept open and of course the sea, which, according to UN (United Nations) international law of the sea, is common to all the countries that use it. Definitely we are concerned,” he told journalists at the annual ASEAN-India dialogue in New Delhi. “Our position has always been India stands for freedom of navigation on high seas. We would like to ensure that all countries in the region adhere to the international conventions on the law of the sea in this issue,” he clarified.

Myanmar May Have Just Bombed Chinese Territory -- Now What?

By Ankit Panda

March 11, 2015

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed that Myanmar accidentally bombed Chinese soil. What are the consequences? 

Chinese soil was bombed by Myanmar’s air force over the weekend in an accidental strike. The strike resulted in no deaths or injuries, but damaged a Chinese civilian building. During a press conference on Tuesday, March 10, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei confirmed that the brewing conflict between ethnic Chinese Kokang rebels and Myanmar’s armed forces in the country’s northeast had spilled into China’s Yunnan province.

In answering a reporter’s question about the alleged bombing, Hong explained the situation and the Chinese response:

It is to our knowledge that amid conflicts between Myanmar’s government forces and local ethnic militias on March 8, stray bombs hit the Chinese side and damaged a civilian residence. Luckily, no one was injured or killed. The Chinese side has expressed grave concerns to the Myanmar side, asking them to get to the bottom of this incident as soon as possible and take effective measures to ensure that such incident will never happen again.

The incident will test China’s resolve on its policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states as per its Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, the decades old guidelines configured by the PRC’s first premier, Zhou Enlai, to guide the country’s foreign policy. Additionally, confirmation of the bombing comes less than a week after it was revealed that a senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) general had leaked state secrets to the Kokang rebels, fueling conspiracy theories in Myanmar that Chinese military know-how was assisting the Kokang rebels in their insurgency.

China’s reaction to the incidents unfurling in northeastern Myanmar will be an interesting case study in how Beijing handles foreign crises unfurling on its borders. Of course, the China-Myanmar case may not apply to, say, China’s relations with Central or South Asian states, including Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan. China and Myanmar have, in recent history, enjoyed close diplomatic relations though Myanmar’s ongoing political reform and border instability have strained things quite a bit.