* The Future of Intelligence Sharing Is Coming Together in the Syrian War

April 28, 2016 By Frank Konkel Nextgov

Fifteen years after 9/11, America's intelligence community finally has a rapid, modern sharing system.
In August 2013, a chemical weapons attack in Syria’s capital, Damascus, killed some 1,500 civilians and left two sides – the Syrian government and the rebels opposing President Bashar al-Assad’s regime – blaming each other for the destruction.

Within just nine days, that confusion ended when the White House released an intelligence assessment unequivocally linking the Syrian government to the attack, highlighting communications and other intercepts by U.S. spy agencies used to make the assessment.
Two weeks later, the United Nations reached the same conclusion in its own report. How was the intelligence community able to reach such a rapid, accurate analysis of such an attack on foreign soil?
The answer, according to Beth Flanagan of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, is integrated intelligence, or the increased ability for the 17 intelligence agencies to develop and share data and work on problems using the same platforms and environments.
Driven by the Intelligence Community Information Technology Enterprise — or ICITE (pronounced “eyesight”) — the IC has been shoring up the same kinds of intelligence gaps that preceded the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

At its core, ICITE is all about moving IC agencies toward shared services, such as cloud computing and a common desktop environment.
Speaking Tuesday at an event hosted by Defense One and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, Flanagan, NGA’s ICITE mission lead, explained how ICITE allowed intelligence analysts from several IC agencies to rapidly “put the puzzle pieces together.”
“That’s the power of integrated intelligence,” Flanagan said. “The power of ICITE, of integrated intelligence, is reducing the time our analysts hunt and peck for data. It makes it easier for them to interrogate data and serve up conclusions to policy makers.”

** “Destroyed” US Warship Donald Cook In Baltic Sea Refuses Russian Offer Of Help

http://www.eutimes.net/2016/04/destroyed-us-warship-donald-cook-in-baltic-sea-refuses-russian-offer-of-help/

Posted by EU Times on Apr 14th, 2016 



A new classified Ministry of Defense (MoD) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that for the second time in two years, “advanced” Federation “electronic warfare defences” have crippled the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Donald Cook (DDG-75)—and when Baltic Fleet “special forces elements” offered assistance to tow them back to their Polish port, the Americans refused to respond.
According to this report, in April, 2014, the USS Donald Cook, while performing a mission in the Black Sea, substantially violated Federation “territorial integrity” causing President Putin to authorize an “electronic warfare defense” attack against it that was so devastating this top-line warship was left adrift—and once towed back to its Romanian port, its American sailors were so demoralized 27 of them filed immediate letters of resignation from the US Navy.

One year later, in May 2015, this report continues, and again in the Black Sea, the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Ross (DDG-71) substantially violated Federation “territorial integrity” causing President Putin, once again, to authorize an “electronic warfare defense” attack against it, but when confronted with the fate that befell the USS Donald Cook the year prior it retreated—causing one Russian top-level Naval Officer to state: “It seems that the Americans did not forget the April 2014 incident when one Su-24 actually shut down all equipment on the new USS Donald Cook American destroyer with anti-missile system elements.”
In March 2015 too, this report notes, Federation submarine naval forces attacked with their “advanced” electronic weapons the American aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) causing it to flee to the coast of Britain where it remained for weeks to the amazement of the public until it was repaired and able to get under sail again—and as we had told about in our report titled Terrified US Aircraft Carrier Flees From Russian Subs To UK Safety.

US Intelligence Community Wants to Use New Computer Algorithms to Track Mobile Missile Launchers

The Increasingly Automated Hunt for Mobile Missile Launchers
Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One, April 28, 2016
The U.S. intelligence community is quietly experimenting with algorithms that might help keep tabs on mobile missile launchers like the ones North Korea has used in recent tests, affording more warning before an attack.
The goal of the $10 million project is to train computers to pick out launcher-shaped objects in the ocean of digital imagery collected by American spy satellites, manned aircraft, and drones, and do it at least well enough to alert analysts to possible hits.
“It’s harder to separate out the needles in a haystack because of the vast amounts of data available,” a senior defense official said. “What was largely a manual process for intelligence analysts has to become an automated one.”
Such launchers are hard to spot, particularly when disguised as semi trucks or shipping containers, like this version of Russia’s Club-K ship-killing missile. Moscow also says it is building a train-launched ICBM.

The project is focused on finding transporter-erector-launchers, known as TELs, like the ones North Korea used during two recent missile tests. In a March 18 test, Pyongyang fired two Nodong missiles from a mobile launcher into the Sea of Japan. A U.S. defense official said the Pentagon had little warning of the mobile launch. Another North Korean mobile launch failed in mid-April, according to U.S. officials.
Pentagon officials declined to discuss specifics of the effort, but Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work mentioned it in an interview last November in which he described new ways that humans and computers could work together.
“You can teach the machine to say, ‘I am looking for a transporter that’s 15 meters long, 4.7 meters wide,’” Work said.
Ultimately, the project aims to automatically alert analysts when a “facility is moving from a benign posture to a threatening posture” and expand that capability globally to monitor thousands of sites around the world, the senior defense official said. “But if something abnormal happens, a yellow flag pops up and allows you to get your analysts engaged.”

U.S. Cyber Command About to Get Elevated to Unified Command

Defense authorization bill would elevate Cyber Command
Cory Bennett, The Hill, April 28, 2016
A defense authorization bill that cleared a House committee early Thursday would elevate U.S. Cyber Command and launch a review into whether the agency should still be run by the National Security Agency (NSA) head.
As of now, Cyber Command is subordinate to U.S. Strategic Command. But the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which passed the House Armed Services Committee by a 60-2 vote, would spin the rapidly developing command out into its own fully unified military command.
The move is a nod to the realization that the cyber war is playing an expanding role in all international conflicts. The Pentagon has increased its focus on offensive cyber tactics in recent years, and recently acknowledged it had lauched its first full-scale cyber offensive against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Cyber Command is working to meet these needs by standing up 133 offensive and defensive cyber teams by 2018 — a total of 6,200 personnel.

As of this month, the command has 27 fully operational teams, 68 teams that have “initial operational capacity” and nearly 100 that are conducting some form of cyberspace operations.
Cyber Command head Adm. Michael Rogers supports designating his unit as a “unified combatant command,” as do military-focused lawmakers in both the House and Senate.
Rogers, who also heads the NSA, stumped for the move during a recent Senate Armed Services Committee hearing. He said the change would help prioritize cyber during the budgeting process, while making Cyber Command more nimble.
“A combatant commander designation would allow us to be faster, which would generate better mission outcomes,” he told the committee.
But Rogers pushed back against taking Cyber Command control away from the NSA chief just yet, noting that the unit was established six years ago to take advantage of NSA infrastructure.

On the Eternal Importance of Demographics and Allies

http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/on-the-eternal-importance-of-demographics-and-allies/
ML Cavanaugh, April 28, 2016

In my last essay, “A Neflix Assessment of China’s Rise and America’s Advantage,” I used the word “never” to express a conviction — as in, China “will never dominate” the Indo-Asia Pacific “for one simple and unavoidable reason: everybody else.” In response, fellow War on the Rocks contributor Dean Cheng called this phrase into question, asserting I ought “never say never.” He argued strongly against such an absolute statement, which I must grudgingly admit is generally true. But Cheng went too far when he suggested “nevers should be reserved for changes in laws of physics – and even then, there are circumstances where it’s much more ‘extremely probable’ rather than ‘never.’” But there must some limits, right? Or is it possible the Black Flag of New Zealand might someday sit atop the fiery ashes of Beijing, following military (non-rugby) conquest?
Helpfully, Cheng’s rejoinder did chop down my essay’s errant tree. Yet he missed the argument’s forest: namely, that digital culture has led to a proliferation of think tank voyeurism, in which the visual is emphasized at the expense of the important. As such, I drew attention to America’s comparative advantage – demographics and allies – in a geostrategic net assessment.

Cheng dismissed demography, and wrote that my essay “points to China’s purportedly inauspicious demographics and lack of allies especially to explain why [China’s rise is constrained].” But isn’t this a fact? China faces serious demographic challenges and a vanishingly small stable of allies. Full stop. Both are exploitable, consequential American leverage points. Perhaps this could be expressed in a more relative way: China’s demographics do not look so weak when compared to Japan’s “graying” population, and their global allies are on par with those of North Korea.
Absolute or relative, demographics matter. When the head of the National Intelligence Council, charged with the official U.S. glimpse into the future, recently retired, he wrote a book on dominant strategic trends. Demographics featured prominently on 12 of 250 pages, particularly with respect to China. And when historian Williamson Murray penned an assessment of the threats military forces will face in the next decades, his first port of call was demographics. Strategists, whether oriented forward or backward, futurist or historian, know and employ demographics in their estimates.

Why the military needs unorthodox career tracks — now

http://www.navytimes.com/story/opinion/2016/04/29/why-military-needs-unorthodox-career-tracks-now/83199886/
By Naveed Jamali, Special to Military Times  April 29, 2016

My career has been anything but traditional. It has included stints in academia, a start-up, a Fortune 500 company, a foreign policy think tank — even four years as an operative working against Russian military intelligence.
I have always felt that movement (laterally or otherwise) was important career-wise, and that meant often finding myself moving from one industry and career to another. Accepting a commission through the Navy’s Direct Commission program and then serving in the Navy Reserve seemed to be the culmination of an utterly eclectic and non-traditional career. But, as I watch my military officer peers struggle with navigating the best way to serve to their golden 20-year mark, I have to wonder: Are rigid career tracks still the best means to develop military leaders who need to use cutting edge technology?
One of the early career lessons I learned in the private sector, was that career development was not tied to a promotion. Not every programmer became a manager, director and then a chief technology officer, with the inverse true as well. While a non-traditional career path such as mine is embraced and encouraged in the private sector, can the concept of a non-linear career be applied to the officer corps of the U.S. military? The biggest impediment to such an approach is the “up or out” policy that requiresofficers must promote or be discharged.

Under current rules, officers have two chances to be reviewed by a promotion board and move up to the next rank. Being passed over both times results in separation.
The first board generally occurs between nine and 11 years of service which, for a Navy surface warfare officer, generally means two division officer tours and one or two department head tours, and comes with tremendous experience. Aware that a singular path may not be diverse enough, the SWO community has a four-track career path. The SWO community also includes expanded maternity leave, graduate degrees and even a sabbatical program. Still, one of the defined paths are the safest bet to a promotion.
With an all-volunteer military, the need to attract and retain a robust and diverse workforce will remain a challenge. Defense Secretary Ash Carter has made it a signature push to make officer careers more flexible in an effort to recruit and retain the most talented, whether specialized experts or broad-based leaders. Both are needed in today's accelerating battlespace.
Unlike the military, my experience in the private sector, especially within technology, embraced my lack of uniformity. And former military officers, whose background is non-traditional for corporate jobs, are nonetheless sought after by industry.

Infographic Of The Day: Travel Hacks And Tips

The hundreds of travel articles collected were analysed according to how widely they were shared. The most popular were then examined to create a holiday timeline with travellers favourite tips that can help you save money and make each stage of a holiday easier. 

[click here to enlarge infographic]



Source: http://infographixdirectory.com/travel/2016s-genius-travel-hacks-tips-infographic/

** “Not-Hot”

Posted on April 7, 2016 by Martin van Creveld

The recent celebration of “international women’s day” gave the Israel Defense Force (IDF) an opportunity to publish some figures as to the number of women serving in its ranks and the Military Occupation Specialties (MOS) in which they do so. What makes the question important is the fact that the IDF is the only army in the world to conscript women. Consequently it has more of them, proportionally speaking, than any other. From 1949 to about 1970 it was also the only one which gave them weapons training, albeit one that was purely symbolic. Foreigners attending the annual Independence Day parades, or happening to meet the women as they went on route marches, marveled to see the combination of cleavage and Uzi submachine guns. One which, for reasons Freud might explain, few could resist.

As Western armed forces, with the American one at their heads, started expanding the role of women beyond administration (secretaries) and medical services (mainly nurses), from 1970 on, the IDF was left behind. Only in the late 1970s, owing to the vast expansion occasioned by the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, did an acute shortage of manpower lead to a reassessment. The next push was given by American-style feminism which reached Israel in the mid-1980s, not long after peace with Egypt was signed. Since then Israeli feminists have been loudly demanding women’s right to serve in any capacity, combat included. Now that the figures have been published we can answer the question, how successful have they been?
First, the background. The IDF active force, including both regulars and conscripts, numbers 176,000 troops. Of those about 30 percent (58,000) are female. The mobilized force, reservists included, numbers 600,000 (on paper). However, since women in spite of recent changes in the law rarely serve in the reserves, their percentage in it is much lower. According to the figures, the total number of female “fighters” in the regular force is said to be 1,593. All are volunteers; unlike men, who are assigned, women only serve in “combat” if and when they want to. In other words, under 3 percent of female soldiers serve in “combat” units.

Women’s inferiority to men in respect to physical strength, aerobic capacity, endurance and, above all, robustness, is obvious to all. The price is paid by their male colleagues; when a female trainee in a mixed unit breaks down, as often happens, guess who is going to carry her and/or her weapons and pack? But the price women have paid for serving in “combat” units has been much higher. Many of the documents in question are classified so as to avoid angering Israeli feminists, an aggressive and often obnoxious lot, by presenting them with the facts. Some, however, have been published by a former student of mine, Colonel (ret.) Raz Sagi.
The picture that emerges is not pretty. Less than 3 percent of IDF “combat troops” are female. However, over the last few years they, or the lawyers acting in their name, have served 10-15 percent of the suits concerning compensation for injuries suffered while on “operational activity” (whatever that may mean). In proportion to their numbers, women sue three to five times more often than men. Sagi’s book bristles with interviews with young women who served as, or trained for, “combat” MOS and were seriously injured, sometimes for life. Such cases are brought before the courts almost every day.

Looking For A Way Out Of Venezuela's Crisis

from STRATFOR

In Venezuela, there are more political moves afoot than the country's political impasse suggests. As Venezuela slouches toward a potentially catastrophic default on foreign debt and wider social unrest appears more and more likely, individuals in the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) are looking for a way out of the crisis, largely motivated by self-interest. After all, if the crisis in Venezuela continues unabated, the country's elites are sure to lose political status, and with it, the security it brings them.

Analysis
During the first three years of Nicolas Maduro's presidency, Venezuela's economy deteriorated rapidly, causing the PSUV to split into several factions. Of these factions, the ruling clique - represented by Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, legislator Diosdado Cabello, and, to a lesser extent, Aragua State Gov. Tareck el Aissami and National Guard Commander Nestor Reverol - is the most resistant to economic reform and political dialogue with the opposition. For them, political change in Venezuela poses an existential threat, and ceding political ground to the opposition is not in their interests. In light of ongoing criminal investigations of Cabello and Flores, losing political sway in the country could jeopardize their futures. Similarly, swift economic adjustments - no matter how necessary - could threaten Maduro's presidency, further driving up inflation that already totals around 300 percent annually. Consequently, Cabello and Maduro have chosen a path of inaction on the economic front, while continuing to deflect political challenges from the opposition coalition.

Different Factions, Different Goals
Several state governors, ostensibly led by Zulia State Gov. Francisco Arias Cardenas, represent the other major faction to emerge in the United Socialist Party. Based on growing public dissatisfaction with the ruling party, even within the party, the governors in this faction oppose holding gubernatorial elections later this year. They would sooner support Maduro's departure from office, whether by referendum or resignation, than risk holding elections they could very well lose. In removing Maduro and transitioning toward a new government, the governors likely hope to mitigate public anger at the ruling party and avert a major electoral defeat. Among those in favor of holding a referendum to remove the president is former Interior Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres. Rodriguez Torres - whom Maduro ousted in 2014 - has the support of a few unspecified dissident allies, but it is unclear whether he falls in Arias Cardenas' camp.

** Why India’s Own Navigation Satellite System Will Be A Boost For Its Armed Forces

Swarajya Staff

April 28, 2016, 

Source Link

With the launch of the IRNSS-IG, India is all set to have its own navigation satellite system 

Here’s why its important militarily: 

The Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) is a step closer to reality with the launch of the seventh and final satellite of the system—the IRNSS-IG. With this, India will now have its own indigenously built navigation satellite system. 

ISRO has laid special emphasis in ensuring all segments of the IRNSS- the ground control units, receivers and the space based units are produced in India and remain in Indian control. There has been ample indication that the primary customer of the system would be the Indian military, although there is enough scope for civilian use too. 

The importance of such a network can be understood from the fact that the Chinese built their own positioning system back in early years of this century, and have granted Pakistan access to the same. The system now consists of nearly 20 satellites with likely full global coverage. The Russians and the Americans had built their own versions many decades ago.

The planned completion of the IRNSS comes at exactly the much needed time-frame for the armed services. A number of new platforms and initiatives are beginning to bear fruit - almost all of them could use access to a military grade positioning system that remains in India’s controls.

First, the locally built nuclear submarine INS Arihant is likely to be inducted into the Indian Navy as soon as May. It would carry 12 K-15 medium range (700km) ballistic missiles or 4 K-4 long range (3500 km) ones. While these systems may use other ways of positioning and navigation, an Indian GPS is sure to help and may even be a necessary prerequisite for a full scale deployment. 

*Nuclear security and terrorism

By Maj Gen Harsha Kakar

29 Apr , 2016

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/nuclear-security-and-terrorism/

Terrorists have always desired to obtain weapons of mass destruction or raw material enabling them to manufacture a dirty bomb, which though crude, would however cause high casualties. Simultaneously they would continue to attempt to strike any nuclear installation. Any single successful action would prompt the world to respond with force against the responsible group, as also lead to mass counter actions against select communities resulting in a mass divide across the world. This could be a worst case scenario for the world. Nuclear proliferation was the agenda of the recently concluded Nuclear Security Summit in Washington.

Investigations post the recent attacks in Brussels, revealed that terrorists were tracking a scientist from the Brussels nuclear power plant.

The summit was the last of the four planned, the first being in 2010, post Obama’s Prague declaration in 2009. Its aim was to review progress on actions to enhance nuclear security as also prevent material falling into terrorist hands. Nuclear security has never been the same since AQ Khan, a Pakistani scientist, stole nuclear designs from The Netherlands, helped Pakistan build a bomb and then subsequently, created a vast network that traded nuclear secrets and illicit technology across several continents. It is believed that North Korea, Iraq, Iran and Libya were among those with whom designs were shared. While the nuclear programs of other countries were stalled, North Korea’s continued unabated. While civil nuclear plants can be monitored, military facilities and nuclear weapons security is the responsibility of the nation’s themselves.

The Daily Fix: With launch of its own GPS, ISRO continues to make India proud

Rohan Venkataramakrishnan

The Latest: Top stories of the day

1. New Delhi has approached the British government seeking the extradition of Christian Michel, an alleged middleman in the AgustaWestland helicopter scam. 

2. The Centre has also written to the United Kingdom's High Commission seeking the deportation of businessman Vijay Mallya to India in an alleged money laundering case.

 

3. The Indian government has barred Tiananmen Square activist Lu Jinghua from entering the country for a meeting of Chinese dissidents, a week after it revoked the visa to an Uyghur-Chinese leader. 

The Big Story: Not-so-final Frontier

Mangalyaan, the plucky little mission that saw India send an orbiter all the way to Mars on a budget smaller than that of a Hollywood blockbuster, set the global narrative for India's space programme. It may not compete with the American, Chinese (and a few paces behind, European and Russia) battle for space supremacy and there may not be much talk of lasers and space wars. But it is successful. And the lack of bombast does not signal an absence of ambition.

The successful launch of the seventh and final satellite of Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System on Thursday catapulted India into that select club of countries that has their own version of the US' Global Positioning System. This means India can use its own satellites to map out navigation across an area covering 1,500 km around the Indian borders. It won't radicalise India's cartographical capabilities, but it represents independence and will also bring plenty of incremental benefits.

Bull in the China Shop: The Indian Army vs The PLA

By Brig Deepak Sinha

28 Apr , 2016

Source Link

One would expect that the Indian armed forces, more than fifty years of their confrontation with the PLA, would be pretty knowledgeable not only about their organisational table, capabilities and weaknesses. Most importantly, since understanding of their operational doctrine, tactics and leadership techniques are absolutely essential there would have been a concerted effort to ensure that the officer cadre would be deeply engrossed in studying those military campaigns that give us deep insight in their handling of large scale forces, apart off course, from their latest writings on evolving strategic, tactical and organisational thought. This becomes particularly important in view of the fact that the PLA can currently support and undertake operations from Tibet with approximately 34 Divisions, as per one estimate.

“Let him who desires peace prepare for war” — Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus

Our inability to place the Henderson Brooks Report in public domain is a clear indication of our attitude of preferring to bury our heads in the sand…

There are many who believe that Sino-Indian relations are, slowly but surely, showing an upswing and it is best for us if we continue with the status quo ante with regard to delineation of the border while concentrating on rapidly enhancing our economic ties for our mutual benefit. There are, however, others who take the position that closer economic ties are only feasible as and when substantive progress has been made on the border issue.

India will have its own GPS with the launch of IRNSS-1G

By IDR News Network

28 Apr , 2016

Source Link

The Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle, in its thirty-fifth flight (PSLV-C33), launches IRNSS-1G, the seventh satellite of the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) into a Sub-Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (Sub-GTO).

The launch took place from the First Launch Pad (FLP) of Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) SHAR, Sriharikota on April 28, 2016. As in the previous six launches of IRNSS satellites, PSLV-C33 uses ‘XL’ version of PSLV equipped with six strap-ons, each carrying 12 tons of propellant.

The ‘XL’ configuration of PSLV is used for the thirteenth time. Besides launching six IRNSS satellites, PSLV-XL has also launched many other spacecraft including India’s Mars Orbiter spacecraft, the multi-wavelength observatory ASTROSAT, Radar Imaging satellite RISAT-1 and the Communication satellite GSAT-12. This apart, PSLV-XL has successfully placed five satellites from United Kingdom into orbit in a single commercial mission.

This is the thirty-fourth consecutively successful mission of PSLV, repeatedly proving its reliability and versatility.

The President, Pranab Mukherjee has congratulated the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) on the successful launch of PSLV-C33 carrying IRNSS-1G, India’s seventh and final in the series of navigation satellites of the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS).

Why India’s Own Navigation Satellite System Will Be A Boost For Its Armed Forces

By admin

29 Apr , 2016

Source Link

The Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) is a step closer to reality with the launch of the seventh and final satellite of the system—the IRNSS-IG. With this, India will now have its own indigenously built navigation satellite system.

The planned completion of the IRNSS comes at exactly the much needed time-frame for the armed services.

ISRO has laid special emphasis in ensuring all segments of the IRNSS- the ground control units, receivers and the space based units are produced in India and remain in Indian control. There has been ample indication that the primary customer of the system would be the Indian military, although there is enough scope for civilian use too.

The importance of such a network can be understood from the fact that the Chinese built their own positioning system back in early years of this century, and have granted Pakistan access to the same. The system now consists of nearly 20 satellites with likely full global coverage. The Russians and the Americans had built their own versions many decades ago.

The planned completion of the IRNSS comes at exactly the much needed time-frame for the armed services. A number of new platforms and initiatives are beginning to bear fruit – almost all of them could use access to a military grade positioning system that remains in India’s controls.

Acting East: Securing the India-Myanmar Border

By Angshuman Choudhury

29 Apr , 2016

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/acting-east-securing-the-india-myanmar-border/

Almost a year before 20 soldiers of the Indian Army’s 6th Dogra Regiment were killed in a brutal offensive by Naga-Manipuri militants along the India-Myanmar border in Manipur’s Chandel district, the Indian Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj announced a decisive move from India’s earlier ‘Look East’ to a new ‘Act East’ design for Southeast Asia. The assailants were understood to be operating freely across the Indian border with Myanmar – a country that is set to serve as the springboard for India’s entry into Southeast Asia.

While Myanmar is viewed as a proximal partner in improving overland connectivity with the rest of Southeast Asia, Northeast India is meant to serve as a key ‘land bridge’ to the Greater Sub-Mekong Region.

In this context, is it possible to sustain a long-term relationship with Southeast Asia without first securing the 1640km-long unfenced India-Myanmar border? Can India’s Northeast accrue the benefits of the upgraded ‘Act East’ approach without a secure politico-military climate of its own?

No Jobs Nirvana: India May Have Missed The Manufacturing Bus Altogether

R Jagannathan

April 28, 2016

Source Link

Even if Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Make in India succeeds, it will not bring with it a huge expansion in employment.

Organised manufacturing offers no nirvana, from the way it is playing out all over the world.

With hindsight, and only with hindsight, it can be said that India may have missed the bus altogether on manufacturing and export-led growth. China was probably the last major economy to gain from making itself a manufacturing and export powerhouse, but now the world is simply incapable of digesting another export-led economy like China, even assuming this can be done. India, even if it were capable of China-like policy moves, cannot probably make it.

This is because manufacturing’s golden age is gone. It is going through the same process of huge increases in productivity that agriculture witnessed in the 20th century. When productivity increases faster than demand for long periods of time, an industry has to shrink in terms of job growth.

Eduardo Porter, writing in The New York Times points out that it needed 45,000 workers to pluck 2.2 million tons of tomatoes in California some 50 years ago. Then a new oblong tomato was developed after much research, which could be picked faster with the help of harvesting machines. The unions protested to stop job-destroying research, but even after the state stopped funding research in this area, jobs still fell to around 5,000.

That’s what productivity did to jobs in agriculture. Today, farming accounts for less than 2 percent of total US employment.

Indonesia’s Natuna: South China Sea Joint Development Area? – Analysis

BY STEWART TAGGART 

APRIL 29, 2016

Source Link

The South China Sea’s most significant potential Joint Development Area (JDA) lies around Indonesia’s Natuna Islands.

The JDA would be established to the northeast of Natuna in an area where territorial claims of Indonesia and Vietnam border each other. Across both, China’s ill-defined Nine-Dotted Line adds a confused additional claim.

The Natuna area holds what may be Asia’s richest offshore deposits of undeveloped natural gas. It’s also highly strategic transit way between the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca.

Known as the East Natuna Gas Fields, development would occur to the northeast and east of Natuna Island itself. The area contains various subfields known as Tuna, Sokang, Belut and other names.

The gas fields would be connected to Natuna through new and existing shallow water gas pipelines. These would be connected to a Pan-Asian Gas Pipeline (PAGP), which is a more extensive version of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) proposed Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP).

U.S. Spymasters Swat Their Fly on the Wall

Diego Chojkier

April 28, 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/us-spymasters-swat-their-fly-the-wall-15980?page=show

The U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) is the best in the world at determining what individuals are thinking. A global network of spies, phone intercepts and overhead imagery excels at analyzing persons. But it’s terrible at understanding people. This must change.

U.S. national-security priorities are increasingly focused, not on state actors, but on insurgencies, transnational terrorism and other forms of violent extremism. Defeating these groups means understanding and eliminating their popular support. But the IC has not changed much from the Cold War era in which it grew up. That does not have to be the case.

I had the privilege of leading the Consolidated Stability Operations Cell (CSOC), which managed atmospheric intelligence gathering for Coalition forces in Afghanistan. We developed a nationwide network that reported on what their communities were saying about development, governance, security and other pressing issues. The insights from our analysis were far more useful for Coalition resource allocation and international donors than tasked covert collection in Kabul.

BEFORE WE HEAD TO LIBYA AGAIN: LEARNING THE WRONG LESSONS FROM A FAILED INTERVENTION

SUMANTRA MAITRA

APRIL 29, 2016

Source Link

In an interview on Fox News Sunday, President Obama said that the 2011 Libya intervention was the greatest disaster and worst mistake of his presidency. Obama apologized for the lack of post-intervention planning, but not for the intervention itself, adding that intervening in Libya “was the right thing to do.” As rumors abound that Europe again prepares to intervene in Libya it is worth analyzing the lessons of the last intervention. The intervention in Libya isarguably considered disastrous. It provided a foothold for the Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL), destabilized an entire coastline only miles from Europe, and rendered the entire region a launching ground for human smugglers profiting on migrant trafficking, not just from Middle East, but from as far away as Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone, and Pakistan. As a rookie foreign affairs blogger five years ago, I argued that plunging into in Libya would be imprudent. Academics such as Stephen Walt, Micah Zenko, and others repeatedly warned against intervening in Libya.

The reasons were simple.

There was never any doubt Gaddafi was brutal; he was a secular authoritarian leader who ruled Libya with an iron fist. There were complaints about the general well-being of Libyans and the stagnating economy, but overall, Libya was an island of stability especially when compared to countries in and around that state. Libya, was, although, one of the primary rogue states during the 1980s and 1990s. The fate of Saddam Hussein also made him realize he needed the reconsider his hostile approach to the West. As such, Gaddafi gave up his nuclear weapons program and assisted intackling jihadists and intelligence cooperation. Gaddafi’s human rights record was horrifying, but qualitatively no different than other allies like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. One had to tolerate his rambling, mind-numbing rants in the United Nations, to be certain—but Libya was crucial in securing an entire borderline between the continent of Africa and Europe. Then, a small group of radicals supported by Islamist elements from around the world— including by U.S. allies Qatar and Saudi Arabia — waged a brutal, sectarian, and tribalistic campaign against the state.

HOW THE ISLAMIC STATE’S PROPAGANDA FEEDS INTO ITS GLOBAL EXPANSION EFFORTS

DAVEED GARTENSTEIN-ROSS, NATHANIEL BARR AND BRIDGET MORENG

APRIL 28, 2016

Source Link

Even before the dramatic blitzkrieg the Islamic State launched through northern Iraq in June 2014, the group had been focused on expanding its presence beyond Syria and Iraq. The group has by now declared wilayats (provinces) in West Africa (Wilayat Ifriqiyah, the organization formerly known as Boko Haram), in the Caucasus region of Russia, and in countries throughout the Middle East and North Africa. Though the campaign of expansion launched by the Islamic State (known in the U.S. government by the acronym ISIL, after its previous incarnation as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) has been fraught with setbacks, the group also achieved real successes. Its move into Libya, where ISIL controls the city of Sirte, justifiably piqued international fears. ISIL’s ability to attract thousands of foreign fighters — and the significant danger they now pose to Europe — is another success story for the group outside of its Syria-Iraq stronghold. As ISIL seeks to establish new wilayats abroad and pull more foreign fighters into its ranks, one of its most potent weapons is its robust propaganda apparatus.

In every country where ISIL has established a presence, it has drawn on a general propaganda playbook consisting of its most powerful themes and narratives that resonate with its global audience, but ISIL also tailors its message to each new theater. The movement is adept at fitting its narratives to local political and social conditions, and exploiting societal grievances and fault lines. ISIL’s localized messaging helps bolster the group’s legitimacy, fuel recruitment, and amplify (and often exaggerate) its strength in countries where the group is fighting for a foothold.

ISIL’s Global Propaganda Playbook

WHAT EXPLAINS THE FLOW OF FOREIGN FIGHTERS TO ISIS?

http://www.nber.org/papers/w22190.pdf

How to shut down the ‘jihad factories’

BRAHMA CHELLANEY
April 5, 2016

Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and author, most recently of Water, Peace, and War .

The Brussels bombings, as with the Paris terrorist attacks last year, show that jihadi-minded citizens of European Union states can turn into killers by imbibing the insidious ideology of Wahhabism.

This is the mother of fanatical Islamist groups – al-Qaeda, the Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab and Islamic State – all of which blend hostility toward non-Sunni Muslims and anti-modern romanticism into nihilistic rage.

The key to battling Islamist terrorism is to stem the spread of the ideology that has fostered “jihad factories.” The export of Wahhabism by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and some other oil sheikdoms is the source of modern Islamist terror. From Africa to Asia and now Europe, Arabian petrodollars have played a key role in fomenting militant Islamic fundamentalism that targets the West, Israel and India as its enemies.

No country has contributed more than Saudi Arabia to the international spread of Wahhabism, which is gradually snuffing out more liberal Islamic traditions in many countries. If Saudi Arabia is to be stopped from continuing to export radical Islamist extremism, the United States and Europe will have to adjust their policies to stop the cloistered Saudi royals from continuing to fund Muslim extremist groups and madrassas in other countries.

With Western support, tyrannical oil monarchies in Riyadh, Doha and elsewhere were able to ride out the Arab Spring, emerging virtually unscathed. Saudi Arabia has faced little international pressure, even on human rights.

Syrian Ceasefire on the Verge of Collapse

April 28, 2016

Military Buildup, Fighting Spells End of Syrian Cease-Fire

A military buildup in northern Syria, coupled with heavy fighting and mounting civilian casualties, spells the end of a cease-fire that for two months brought some relief to a war-weary country. The renewed violence is ushering in what could be an even more ruinous chapter in the 5-year-old conflict.

About 200 civilians have been killed in the past week, nearly half of them around Aleppo. There has even been shelling in Damascus, along with a car bomb — both rarities for the capital.

With peace talks in Geneva completely deadlocked, Syrians are regarding the escalating bloodshed with dread, fearing a return to full war and slow destruction.

“There are regime attempts to advance and preparations by (rebel) forces to advance in the other direction. But the truth is that both sides have no capacity to advance,” said activist Ahmad al-Ahmad, who lives in opposition-held areas outside Hama. “It is attrition, except for the planes, which can target civilians.”

Aleppo is likely to be the focus of the next phase of the war, with both sides preparing for a major battle, according to senior rebel leaders and opposition activists who spokes to The Associated Press.

Government forces have been mobilizing soldiers, equipment and ammunition in preparation for a military action in Aleppo, said Maj. Jamil Saleh, leader of Tajammu Alezzah, a Free Syrian Army faction that has received U.S.-delivered TOW anti-tank missiles.

Big Surge in Missile Tests in Russia, China, North Korea and Iran

Bill Gertz

April 28, 2016

Missile test surge

U.S. intelligence agencies that monitor foreign missile tests have been working overtime in the past several weeks keeping tabs on test firings by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

The surge in missile tests began April 12 in central China with Beijing’s newest and longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile, the DF-41. The missile carried two dummy warheads that are the latest feature of China’s large-scale nuclear buildup — the addition of multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, to its forces.

The Pentagon was silent on the test, but China’s Defense Ministry confirmed the test on April 21, describing the launch as a “normal” scientific experiment.

Then on April 19, Russia tested a revolutionary new hypersonic glide vehicle that travels at several thousand miles per hour and is capable of maneuvering to defeat missile defenses. The Yu-71 was launched atop an SS-19 long-range missile from a base in central Russia and flew east.

On the same day, Iran conducted the first test launch of what the Pentagon says is a covert long-range missile known as Simorgh. Iran has called the rocket a space launcher. The missile, which is believed to contain North Korean missile technology and equipment shipped to Iran in the past year, was fired from a launch facility at Semnan, located about 125 miles east of Tehran.

Defense officials said the missile landed within Iranian territory and did not send any objects into orbit, as would be expected. Iranian media were silent on the launch, which the State Department said might have violated the U.N. Security Council resolution on the Iran nuclear deal. The resolution calls on Iran to refrain from any rocket development that could have applications for long-range missiles.

Russia’s GRU Says 4,500 Islamic State Militants Now In Central Asia – OpEd

BY PAUL GOBLE 

APRIL 29, 2016

Source Link

General Sergey Afanasyev, deputy chief of the GRU, the Russian military’s intelligence service, says that approximately 4500 people in Central Asia have sworn allegiance to the Islamic State and that they constitute a problem for the countries of the region and ultimately for Russia as well.

In reporting his remarks, “Moskovsky komsomolets” asked Azhdzar Kurtov, the editor of the “Problems of National Strategy” journal issued by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI) for his reaction (mk.ru/politics/2016/04/27/v-centralnoy-azii-naschitali-4-500-boevikov-igil.html).

Kurtov expressed a certain skepticism about the number Afanasyev reported. “It is in general strange,” the RISI editor said, “to think about where this number came from because now GRU officers can collect information only in Syria and Iraq but not in Central Asia.” Moreover, it is necessary to make distinctions between loyalists and activists.

That there are ISIS loyalists and activists in Central Asia is beyond question, he continued. “More than that, according to certain parameters, the situation in Central Asia is very similar to the one which preceded the appearance of ISIS in the Middle East” – poverty, brittle authoritarianism, and explosive demographic trends.

The Risks At Play At The Summer Olympics

from STRATFOR

-- this post authored by Scott Stewart

As athletes and spectators gear up for the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, security experts and professionals are also preparing. On April 13, the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (ABIN) issued a report assessing the threat to the upcoming Olympic Torch Relay, which will travel through several European countries and 329 Brazilian cities before arriving in Rio de Janeiro for the Aug. 5 opening ceremony. Among other items,

ABIN's report confirmed that a French Islamic State member named Maxime Hauchard was responsible for a November 2015 tweet threatening attacks in Brazil. Issued in the wake of the extremist attacks in Paris, the message warned, "Brazil, you are our next target." Of the many risks discussed in ABIN's report, the Hauchard revelation garnered the most buzz and made international headlines about the Islamic State's threat to the Summer Games.

Yet despite the heavy media coverage that this threat has attracted, several unrelated and more likely dangers to athletes and spectators lurk in the upcoming Olympics.

The Terrorism Threat