Iran and Pakistan Vow to Boost Trade to Mend Diplomatic Rift

Munir Ahmed

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The leaders of Iran and Pakistan agreed to strengthen economic and security cooperation in a meeting on Monday that sought to smooth over a diplomatic rift.

Ties were strained between the neighbors in January when each carried out strikes in the other’s territory, targeting militants accused of attacking security forces.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and other officials on his three-day visit. Authorities deployed hundreds of additional police and paramilitary forces for security.

The Bottom is Falling out for Myanmar’s Junt

Joshua Kurlantzick

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Already facing a long string of battlefield defeats, defections, and loss of territory, in recent weeks, the Myanmar military seems to have reached a crossroads, in which several events suggest the bottom could be falling out for the junta—and that both Myanmar citizens and outsiders should prepare for an endgame. Scenarios could include a potential fracture in the junta, last-ditch attempts by the military to take back territory using even more brutal tactics, or other endgame scenarios that have occurred in similar situations, such as senior officers trying to flee, trying to ensure their assets in and out of the country are safe, and even looking for third countries to take them.

China's H-20 is No B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber

Peter Suciu

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-In contrast, China's secretive Xi'an H-20 bomber remains largely unknown, with sparse details and delayed announcements about its unveiling. Despite significant strides in military technology by China, the Pentagon maintains that the U.S. will retain superiority in terms of aircraft quality and operational expertise.

-The B-21, designed for cost-efficiency and high functionality with modern technology, aims to replace older bombers while maintaining a strategic edge in a rapidly evolving global threat landscape.

China's H-20 Stealth Bomber: Threat to America or a Paper Tiger?

Maya Carlin

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-Despite China’s efforts and the historical context of espionage aiding its design, U.S. officials remain cautiously unconcerned, emphasizing that possessing such technology doesn’t guarantee operational advantage.

-Meanwhile, the U.S. is advancing its B-21 bomber, featuring modern stealth and technological integrations, to maintain a strategic edge. As both nations enhance their nuclear arsenals, the geopolitical implications grow increasingly significant.

China creeps onto US doorstep with attempt to establish apparent Caribbean satellite state

Madeleine Hubbard

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China is taking a page out of the U.S. historic playbook by flexing its economic and military muscles in the Western Hemisphere, with the goal of pulling U.S. neighbors to its side. New documents show that Beijing appears to be attempting to establish its own satellite state in the Caribbean.

The U.S. has long reigned supreme in the Western Hemisphere since the signing of the Monroe Doctrine in 1823, but China has been "exploiting a fragile security environment and taking advantage of the region’s need for economic investment to gain influence and advance its malign agenda" in a move that challenges U.S. hegemony in the Americas, U.S. Southern Command Comm. Gen. Laura Richardson recently told Congress in written testimony.

Blinken goes to China to maintain the illusion of stability

JAKE WERNER

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Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to travel to Beijing this week in the latest round of high-level diplomacy between the U.S. and China.

Since the U.S.–China relationship hit new lows in late 2022 and early 2023 — thanks to incidents like then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and a Chinese spy balloon’s visit to U.S. airspace — both sides have made a welcome effort to slow the slide toward crisis and conflict.

The Delusion of Peak China

Evan S. Medeiros

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Ever since Chinese President Xi Jinping secured his third term in power in the fall of 2022, he has had a rough time. Shortly after his reappointment, street protests pushed him to abruptly abandon his signature “zero COVID” policy. After a quick reopening bump in early 2023, the economy has progressively slowed, revealing both cyclical and structural challenges. Investors are leaving in droves, with foreign direct investment and portfolio flows reaching record lows. 

RIP, SSF: Unpacking the PLA’s Latest Restructuring

Ying Yu Lin and Tzu-Hao Liao

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On April 19, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officially disbanded its Strategic Support Force (SSF) and re-established the Information Support Force. While some observers have dismissed this move as merely a change in nomenclature – the same group of people under a different name – a closer examination reveals significant implications when juxtaposed with the restructuring efforts within the PLA and the framework of the U.S. and Russian militaries.

Is Iran’s Strategic Patience At An End?

Assaf Zoran

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The reported precise yet limited Israeli attack against an Iranian missile defense facility near Isfahan last week delivered a nuanced threat without pushing escalation forward. Based on operational superiority, it signaled a potential future destructive assault on Iranian strategic targets, should such a decision be made.

Iran’s downplaying of the attack likely ends the most significant escalation observed between the two countries. The most noteworthy aspect of the recent escalation was an unprecedented large-scale Iranian military assault on Israeli territory. 

Ukraine on Brink of Losing Key Strongholds Before Western Aid Arrives

Brendan Cole

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Ukraine's advocates had been long warning about the urgency of further Washington aid to fight President Vladimir Putin's aggression. Time is equally of the essence as to whether the $61 billion package agreed by the House of Representatives on Saturday can be deployed quickly enough to stem Russian momentum on the battlefield.

Russian forces have made incremental gains since their capture of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region on February 17 and are bearing down on Chasiv Yar, a settlement 40 miles north, which Kyiv has warned that Putin wants to capture in time for Victory Day on May 9 when Moscow marks its role in the defeat of Nazi Germany.

The US military is embedding its officers in corporate America

BRETT HEINZ

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The government should do more business with McKinsey & Co. — one of the world’s largest consulting firms — says a Pentagon presentation: “Leverage [the] consulting firm’s expertise and objectivity – outsourcing is a positive action.” While this might sound like a talking point from lobbyists, it actually came from an active-duty naval commander who spent almost a full year working at McKinsey & Co. with you, the taxpayer, footing the bill.

It’s no secret that major defense companies spend millions to influence the U.S. government in hopes of securing contracts, favorable treatment, and higher profits. What’s less known is that the military has a program that subsidizes these efforts. 

As the US Air Force fleet keeps shrinking, can it still win wars?

Stephen Losey

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In February 2017, then-Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Dave Goldfein issued a warning.

Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Goldfein rattled off all the missions the Air Force must undertake: defending the U.S. against attack, operating two legs of the nation’s nuclear triad, projecting air power around the globe and, at the time, defeating the militant group known as the Islamic State.

“Every one of those missions is a growth area,” Goldfein said. “And while these missions have been growing, our Air Force has been getting smaller. ... We’re actually the smallest Air Force we’ve ever been.”

Is This the End for Human Fighter Pilots?

Roger Thompson

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In the April 18, 2024 issue of The Telegraph, journalist Cameron Henderson published an article titled “History made as U.S. Military conducts first ever human vs AI dogfight”, and reported something that profoundly disturbs me. He wrote that in September 2023, a USAF F-16 fighter pilot went through a series of engagements with another F-16 controlled by Artificial Intelligence (AI). He said: “Travelling at speeds of up to 1,200 miles per hour, the two jets practised both defensive and offensive scenarios as well as within-visual-range combat, known as dogfighting. 

More anarchy awaits in Africa Another continent is teetering on the brin

David Patrikarakos

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“God Loves You.” An accusing finger looms out of the billboard, pointing directly at passers-by. Lord Kitchener has been press-ganged into a different kind of national service.

Zambia’s capital, Lusaka, is a tundra of low-roofed buildings and patchy roads lined with threadbare bush. It is the billboards, though, that stick in the mind. A combination of the generic and the personal, they offer everything from tempered glass to soft drinks to the chance, with the help of a professional medium, to become wealthy, get your ex back or simply take “revenge”.

The U.S. is in retreat in a crucial part of the world

Ishaan Tharoor

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For boosters of U.S. security interests in Africa, the past few days carried grim tidings. At the end of last week, the United States informed the coup-plotting leadership of Niger that it would comply with its request to withdraw U.S. forces from the country, which had been operating in a counterterrorism role there for more than half a decade. Around the same time, reports emerged that authorities in Chad had sent a letter this month to the U.S. defense attaché based there, ordering the United States to cease activities at a base that also accommodates French troops.

Israel’s Next Front?

Maha Yahya

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Over the past six months, tensions along Israel’s border with Lebanon have escalated dramatically. Israel has now deployed 100,000 troops to its north to confront the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, and the fighting there has steadily intensified. Nearly 400 Lebanese—including around 70 civilians and three journalists—have been killed, 90,000 Lebanese civilians have been displaced from around 100 towns and villages along the Israeli-Lebanese border, and Lebanese villages and olive groves have incurred widespread damage from phosphorus bombs. 

War Drums on the Horizon: Will Europe Wake Up in Time? - OPINION

Martina Sapio

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Europe hums with the normalcy of daily life – cafes bustling, children playing, tourists snapping photos. Yet, a shadow hangs low on the horizon, a shadow cast by the rumble of tanks on Europe’s eastern border. Senior EU officials, including EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell, warn of a potential war erupting on European soil, but the sense of normalcy persists. This disconnects between official pronouncements and public perception reveals a continent deeply divided in its understanding of the current threat.

Escalation, Red Lines, Risk and the Russo-Ukraine War

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This piece is my Alexander Dallin Memorial Lecture delivered to the Center for Russian, East European & Eurasian Studies, Stanford University, 18 April 2024, which explains why it is somewhat longer than my usual posts.

It is a great honour to have been invited to deliver this lecture in memory of Alexander Dallin as we approach the centenary of his birth and celebrate his enormous contribution to Russian studies. I have been reading him again, enjoying the combination of deep learning, vigorous analysis and sharp writing that marks his work. 

Hezbollah Claims Drone Attack 10 Miles Inside Israel

Euan Ward

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The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on Tuesday claimed that it had made its deepest attack into Israel since October, striking a barracks north of the city of Acre with drones and setting off sirens across the country’s northern coastline.

The Israeli military, however, said that no bases had been hit and no casualties reported, adding that three drones had been identified and intercepted.

Non-state armed groups in the sky: Global regulation fails to address the security risks posed by civilian drone

Maria-Louise Clausen

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Drones are revolutionising conflict dynamics as they provide non-state armed groups with a means to conduct surveillance, gather intelligence and execute precision strikes. This technological advancement grants these groups strategic influence previously unattainable without substantial resources.

I Study War for a Living: No One Is Sure if the Era of the Tank Is Over

Peter Suciu

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-Despite these efforts, challenges remain in enhancing tank protection against modern threats like drones, which have proven effective against armored vehicles, including Western tanks like the M1 Abrams and Leopard 2.

-The ongoing conflict highlights the vulnerability of traditional tanks to low-cost technologies and may prompt a shift toward smaller, unmanned combat systems, potentially reshaping future warfare strategies and tank utilization on the battlefield.

Can India Become a Great Power?

ASHLEY J. TELLIS

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Ever since independence in 1947, India’s leaders imagined that the country would become a great power — it possessed a storied civilization, a large landmass, and population and epitomized a successful experiment in liberal democracy. But becoming a great power required that its large population become much more productive and the country at large approach the global technological frontier.

On Thin Ice: Bhutan’s Diplomatic Challenge Amid the India-China Border Dispute

SHIBANI MEHTA

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In October 2023, Bhutan’s foreign minister Tandi Dorji travelled to Beijing to meet his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. For countries that do not share formal diplomatic ties, the visit was significant for several reasons. This was Dorji’s first official visit to China and marked the twenty-fifth round of boundary talks between the two countries. This in itself was a milestone, considering the previous round was held eight years earlier in 2016. A statement by the Chinese foreign ministry following the visit expressed hope that both sides would soon establish diplomatic relations and conclude their boundary negotiations.

The new momentum towards an early settlement of a dispute that has been ongoing for the last seven decades has strategic implications for Bhutan, China, and India. Bhutan and India have a friendship dating back to 1949 which affords New Delhi guidance over Bhutan’s foreign and defense policy. While for China, the willingness to conclude boundary talks with Bhutan is linked to the India-China border dispute, and particularly to the status of Arunachal Pradesh which it claims as an extension of South Tibet.

As a result, Bhutan faces a substantial diplomatic challenge as it aims to strike a delicate balance that resolves the border issue without incurring large-scale territorial concessions that alienate India or further encourage Chinese advances. This piece examines the strategic implications of Bhutan’s diplomatic efforts amid its border dispute with China, highlighting the thin ice it walks on to achieve a resolution without compromising its vital relationships. It also raises the question—Wedged between two Asian powers, how much agency does Thimphu truly have to steer these negotiations?

EXPLAINING THE DISPUTE

Bhutan and China share a 477-kilometer-long border. In 1951, the annexation of Tibet shifted Chinese borders farther south. This not only threatened the territorial integrity of Bhutan but fuelled the assumption that attempts at infiltration by Chinese troops would be hostile.

In a Taiwan conflict, tough choices could come for Big Tech

SAM BRESNICK and EMELIA PROBASCO

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Searching for war criminals, identifying battlefield casualties, and tracking the movements of militaries are not the typical subjects of boardroom conversations at US tech companies. That is until two years ago when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

After that moment, these companies and their CEOs made choices that influenced the course of the war. They provided cutting-edge capabilities that fortified Kyiv against Moscow’s initial assault; Palantir software supported Ukraine’s targeting of invading Russian forces, SpaceX’s Starlink enabled battlefield communications, and numerous satellite companies helped Ukrainian forces track the activities of Russian troops. Throughout the conflict’s early stages, these and other firms, including prominent Big Tech players, made decisions that aligned with US goals.

Unlike their government counterparts, however, companies were not animated by nation-state concerns like diplomatic commitments or electoral politics. Many did so because they believed it was the right thing to do, they possessed useful capabilities, and because their businesses did not depend on Russia. Microsoft, Apple, and Google, for example, made around 1 percent of their total revenue in the country and did not rely on local manufacturers, and start-ups that supported Ukraine had no operations in Russia.

It is unclear, however, if these conditions will hold in the case of a conflict over Taiwan.

As one of us argues in a recent report, several of the companies that came to Ukraine’s defense have much deeper economic ties to China than they did to Russia, and those connections could expose them to Chinese coercion. For example, Tesla reportedly manufactures over 50 percent of its electric vehicles in China, while Apple produces 95 percent of its hardware in the country. Both companies earn around 20 percent of their revenue there. Microsoft and Amazon conduct AI- and computer science-related research in China. These companies, along with Cloudflare, Google, Cisco, and Oracle, all of which supported Ukraine to some degree, have other business interests in China that could affect their decisions about supporting Taiwan in a conflict.

China’s new H-20 stealth bomber ‘not really’ a concern for Pentagon, says intel official

MICHAEL MARROW

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Whatever may come of China’s new long-range stealth bomber known as the Xi’an H-20, US officials are confident it won’t measure up to American designs, according to a DoD intelligence official.

“The thing with the H-20 is when you actually look at the system design, it’s probably nowhere near as good as US LO [low observable] platforms, particularly more advanced ones that we have coming down,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon today.

“They’ve run into a lot of engineering design challenges, in terms of how do you actually make that system capability function in a similar way to, like, a B-2 or a B-21,” the official added.

The H-20 is expected to be Beijing’s answer to American platforms such as the new B-21 Raider, though little is known about the Chinese program given intense state secrecy.

In March, a Chinese military official reportedly told state-owned newspaper Hong Kong Commercial Daily that the H-20 would be unveiled soon, though the timeline is not clear.

“You may choose to unveil it just because they want to show that they’re a great, you know, military power. That doesn’t necessarily mean it actually delivers them the kind of capability that they would need or at the quantity that they would need,” the DoD intelligence official said.

Asked whether the H-20 is a concern, the official replied “Not really.”

The Digital Silk Road: A growing priority for Beijing as its tech champions expand overseas

Jacob Gunter & Rebecca Arcesati

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In the Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) second decade, the focus is on smaller infrastructure projects involving new technologies, especially digital, that bring a good return on investment and promote Chinese firms overseas. The ‘Digital Silk Road’ (DSR), or the technology-focused leg of the BRI which exists alongside ports, rail, energy and roads, will therefore become more prominent, especially across the Global South. Not only are these key growth markets, but it will be important for China’s digital giants to expand overseas as they finish building out networks in China.

To better understand Chinese tech firms within the DSR, it is important to look at the factors pushing them overseas. Some, like Huawei and Bytedance, have been much written about. Here, we look at less well-known players in sectors such as undersea cables, AI, gaming and social media and ridesharing.

We found pressures for international expansion differed dramatically between consumer internet firms and China’s major players in the hardware and ‘real economy’ fields. Consumer-focused firms face a profit crunch in domestic markets that has sent them seeking growth markets elsewhere, whereas the hardware giants enjoy Beijing’s backing in the form of subsidies and project finance. At the same time, Beijing does welcome Big Tech investing abroad if that helps China dominate strategic technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), or at least generates revenue and profit that can be used to fund the right kind of R&D back home.

The importance of more “neutral” markets for China’s digital champions is growing as the tech rivalry with the United States has brought greater scrutiny of them in North America, parts of Europe and the Western Pacific. Besides, the domestic and emerging markets were often already more important. According to one analysis, for Huawei’s radio access network (RAN) business “any decline in European low-margin markets was offset in absolute terms by China and the emerging economies”.

THE PLA AND MISSION COMMAND: IS THE PARTY CONTROL SYSTEM TOO RIGID FOR ITS ADAPTATION BY CHINA

Larry M. Wortzel

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INTRODUCTION

The entire system of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership and control of the armed forces and society is built on a foundation of strict, top-down guidance from the central leadership, covering all aspects of national security and military affairs. Ultimately, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the guarantor of the CCP’s continued leadership of China.

The CCP does not allow deviation from party guidelines provided by Xi Jinping, CCP General Secretary, Chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission (CMC) and President of China. At a meeting of political commissars at the PLA, the “All Army Party Building Meeting” in 2013, Xi Jinping directed the PLA to “unswervingly support the party and its spirit, [and] ensure the party and the people are under the command of the Central Military Commission.”1 In the same speech, Xi told political commissars that the PLA must increase its technological and scientific advancements. Xi’s challenge to the PLA is not a call to innovate, understand the commander’s intent or use creativity and initiative to accomplish military missions. It is a call to innovate in developing new weapon systems and ways to control them.

The concept of mission command and independently carrying out the commander’s intent would therefore seem anathema in the political culture of the CCP and PLA.

In 2022, however, four field grade officers from various organizations and backgrounds in the PLA authored an exploratory article on the theory of mission command (任务式指挥的理论). It was published in the PLA’s authoritative doctrinal journal, China Military Science (中国军事科学), a publication of the Academy of Military Sciences (中国解放军军事科学院), or AMS.2

A Progressive, Principled, and Pragmatic Approach Toward China Polic

Dave Rank, Alan Yu & Michael Clark

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The U.S. relationship with China will be one of this generation’s defining foreign policy challenges. A key part of the challenge will be discussing the issues without falling back on simplistic, outdated, or inaccurate generalizations.

There are few historical parallels of great power rivals as deeply integrated as the United States and China. They have the world’s two largest economies; they are the world’s largest military spenders; and they both are increasingly in competition with each other. As the world’s two largest exporters, their two-way trade exceeded $750 billion in 2022, even as commercial ties frayed and (not coincidentally) the multilateral trading system came under deep stress.

Indeed, on issue after issue—from AI to social media and from Taiwan to Ukraine—sharp differences in values and interests create friction between Washington and Beijing. These frictions will play out in how we trade; how our technological ecosystems interact; and how we manage military competition. At the same time, U.S.-China relations cannot and should not be based solely on competition. On a range of critical issues—from climate change to illegal narcotics—cooperation will have tangible benefits for Americans and, often, for people in China and the rest of the world.

The principles behind a sound China policy

Smart U.S. policy toward China needs to be based on principles that align with the interests of people and the values of our system. As Washington formulates our approach to competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), we should look to policies that are:

Comparing Gray-Zone Tactics in the Red Sea and the South China Sea

Thomas Lim and Eric Ang

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Amid turbulent times at sea, gray-zone tactics have become a preferred tool for actors seeking to advance their interests without resorting to outright military conflict. Essentially, gray-zone tactics mean operating in the murky spectrum between peace and war. Such actions risk eroding the freedom of navigation, a central concept undergirding global economic stability.

Two recent cases – the Houthis’ activities in the Red Sea, and the Chinese actions around Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea – display remarkable similarities when it comes to the operationalization of gray-zone tactics, despite being cut from entirely different contextual cloths.

A deep-dive analysis of the two cases reveals notable similarities in tactical conduct and adversarial responses, with three critical lessons distilled for the international community to navigate future iterations of such gray-zone tactics out at sea.

The Red Sea Gambit

Based in Yemen, the Houthi movement is a non-state actor that can be classified as an organized armed group with political aspirations. Since hijacking a cargo ship on November 19, 2023, the Houthis have allegedly been targeting Israeli-linked ships to stop Israel from attacking Palestine in Gaza and the West Bank, with this target list further expanding to United States- and United Kingdom-linked ships in March 2024.

Although the Houthis have utilized military force on commercial vessels, existing international law (including the law of naval warfare) does not apply to conflicts between states and non-state actors. The Houthis’ identity as non-state actors engaging in gray-zone operations makes it tricky for the international community to respond proportionately, despite the threat that their actions pose to regional shipping and maritime security.

Iran says it shot down Israel’s attack. Here’s what air defense systems it might have used.

AGNES HELOU

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In the early morning hours today, multiple explosions reportedly took place in central Iran, the result of Israeli munitions striking near Isfahan or, possibly, the result of Iran’s air defense systems knocking some threats out of the sky.

As details slowly emerged, it remained unclear what Jerusalem supposedly used for the attack — some reports indicated missiles, while Iranian media made references to small drones. So far there have been no reports of casualties, and though Isfahan is home to some Iranian nuclear facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency said those had not been damaged.

Tehran has played down the attack as small scale, compared to the approximately 350 missiles and drones it launched at Israel on April 13. In that case Israel’s air defense systems, with significant help from the US, UK, France and even Jordan, managed to knock out a vast majority of the threats before they could do any damage.

Though Iranian officials claimed its air defenses were successful in today’s incident as well, it remains to be seen exactly how well those systems did against the much smaller Israeli sortie. Either way, air defense has been an area of increasingly public focus for Tehran in recent years, going as far as to show off its systems at an international defense conference in the Middle East.

Here’s a look at the systems Iran is believed to operate, based on information available at the shows, published analysis from the US Defense Intelligence Agency and media reporting. While it is unclear how many of any given system Iran currently has active, the takeaway is clear: Tehran has made the creation of a multilayered air defense network a priority.

ISRAEL’S AIR DEFENSE OPERATION WAS EFFECTIVE—JUST NOT NECESSARILY REPLICABLE

Peter Mitchell

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Iran directly moved against Israel over the weekend with a three-pronged saturation attack consisting of approximately 185 Shahed drones, 110 medium-range ballistic missiles, and 36 land-attack cruise missiles. The Iranian attack came after a weeklong telegraphed buildup of tensions triggered by the Israeli strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. In spite of, or perhaps because of, this extensive preparation phase, Tehran’s hope for an overwhelming bombardment of Israeli targets appears to be largely foiled. The vast majority of incoming munitions were intercepted by a variety of layered air defense systems, with the only substantive impacts appearing to be on Ramon air base in the Negev, far to the south of the main body of the Israeli air defense network. Since the runways at Ramon were undoubtedly cleared by scrambling the aircraft long before the missiles arrived, it is unlikely any hits on grounded aircraft were scored. The Israel Defense Forces released footage of engineers already repairing the minor cratering done to the runway, underscoring the optics of the Iranian attack being rendered largely ineffective.

Regardless of whether the attack was launched for a performative or a strictly military purpose and setting aside the panoply of political, strategic, and other questions it raises, its immediate outcome should be viewed as clear evidence that integrated air and ground air defense systems can provide adequate coverage against saturation attacks—at least under certain conditions. Simply put, the old assumption that states could invest in plentiful and cheap ballistic and cruise missiles to provide a sort of “poor man’s air force” for power projection has shown to be wanting. Just as the 1990 Gulf War proved the massive superiority of modern precision weapons against massed armored formations, so has the Iranian attack shown that integrated air defense systems are not all hype. China’s leaders will be taking notes, just as they did in 1990. For attacks like this to succeed, far more preparation of the battlefield is required.

Iran's Air Defense Purchase From Russia Backfires

Ellie Cook

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An Israeli attack on Iran damaged a Russian-made S-300 air defense system, according to a new report, marking a possible embarrassing performance for the Moscow-designed system provided to a crucial Kremlin ally.

Friday's attack on Iran damaged or destroyed an S-300 radar designed to track targets, a "crucial" part of the air defense system, The New York Times reported, citing Western and Iranian officials and satellite imagery analysis.

Israel launched an attack on Iran early on Friday, with explosions reported over the central Iranian city of Isfahan, south of Tehran. Air defenses fired at a "suspicious object" near the city at around 4 a.m. local time, Iranian state media reported. A spokesperson for Iran's space agency, Hossein Dalirian, said Iran intercepted three quadcopter drones. Several reports from anonymous Western and Iranian officials have suggested Israeli warplanes fired at least one missile at Iran.

Isfahan is home to a major military base and a large nuclear facility. The Israeli strike damaged the air defense system positioned near Natanz, north of Isfahan, the Times reported. The Natanz uranium enrichment facility is one of Iran's most well-known sites.

Russia, increasingly isolated from the international community following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has tightened ties with its allies, not least Iran. Moscow has extensively used Iranian-designed explosive drones in its war effort, and in mid-February, Reuters reported that Tehran was supplying Moscow with hundreds of powerful ballistic missiles.

Eluding The Crossfire While Giants Fight: East And Southeast Asian Geopolitics And The South China Sea Dispute – Analysis

Rizal G. Buendia

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The new geopolitics of East Asia is dominated by the emerging regional rivalry between China and the United States. This new strategic reality has been driven by China’s economic rise against the backdrop of the US’ “rebalancing” foreign policy in Asia and its relative economic decline. The rivalry extends well beyond maritime issues. East and Southeast Asian states have been drawn into this contest, whether or not they have disputes with China in the South China Sea (SCS). The geopolitical transformation in East Asia has been shaped by political and economic developments in the world in the last two decades.

The first is focused on the changing balance between East and West. (1) At the end of the Cold War, the center of gravity of the world was shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific. But as Asia integrates with itself amidst the rise of the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC), the geopolitical emphasis has shifted from “Asia-Pacific” to Asia. While the concept of Asia-Pacific includes the US and other countries from the Americas, the latter has come to represent greater economic integration within East Asia.

China’s economic rise and success not only won the admiration of Southeast Asian countries, but also helped Beijing establish strong trade and financial ties with them. The “pivot” is taking place in the context of deepening Chinese regional relationship. As a result, seven (7) Asian economies have been identified as the future engines of global growth, with the growth in the emerging middle class being a key driver (see Table 1).

A war is brewing in the Pacific Will Aukus make the same mistakes as Nato

Thomas Fazi

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The US may be losing ground to new global powers in many respects, but when it comes to the business of sowing conflict around the world, it remains unrivalled. As it slowly abandons Ukraine to its own fate, after playing a crucial role in triggering the conflict in the first place, and as it contributes to the dangerous escalation in the Middle East, it is also laying the ground for a future war with China in Asia.

For much of the past half-century, the US and its Asia-Pacific allies shunned a collective Nato-like approach to security in the region, opting instead for a so-called hub-and-spokes system: with the United States as the hub and various bilateral and multilateral alliances as the spokes of an ideal “wheel of security”. In recent years, amid growing tensions with Beijing, these initiatives have multiplied, with overlapping political, military and economic deals creating, in the words of The Economist, “an ever-thickening lattice on China’s periphery”.

The US, however, now appears determined to take this approach one step further, by transforming its patchwork of arrangements into a full-blown military alliance: an Asian Nato. The first major step in this direction was the creation, in the early days of the Biden administration, of the Australia-United Kingdom-United States pact (Aukus), a new trilateral military partnership that included, as its central pillar, the provision of nuclear-powered (but not nuclear-armed) submarines to Australia. The project was initially met with scepticism and hostility — especially, as one might have expected, from China, which said that the partnership risked “severely damaging regional peace”.

While this led to a sluggish start for the new alliance, Aukus has gained momentum in recent months. The three countries recently announced the launch of Pillar II of the pact, which will see its members collaborate on next-gen military technologies — including quantum computing, artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons and undersea capabilities — and decide whether to invite new members, such as South Korea, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. Earlier this month, the US ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, wrote that Japan was “about to become the first additional Pillar II partner”.

Understanding Israel-Hezbollah Clashes Since October 7

Ahmad Sharawi

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Eighty thousand Israelis have evacuated their homes near the country’s northern border as Hezbollah rockets rain on their communities. Yet, Israeli forces are drawing the most fire on the Lebanese border. The rocket and mortar fire across the border can seem like skirmishes without a pattern or purpose. However, a closer look shows there have been three distinct stages to the fighting that began when Hezbollah fired the first rounds on October 8 to demonstrate its solidarity with Hamas.

Initially, Israel restricted its response to targeting Hezbollah launch sites near the border, yet in mid-November, it shifted to attacks deeper inside Lebanon with an eye toward degrading Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. Then, in January, the Israelis struck Dahiyeh—Hezbollah’s South Beirut stronghold—killing senior Hamas official Saleh Arouri. This prompted Hezbollah to match the Israeli escalation, yet Israel retains the initiative and has inflicted far greater damage while its adversary remains wary of provoking an all-out war.

Israel is determined to restore security for the tens of thousands of its citizens who live within range of Hezbollah rockets and mortars in southern Lebanon. In contrast, Hezbollah has to weigh the risk of provoking a massive response for which the Lebanese people across the political and religious spectrum would hold Hezbollah responsible. The group also needs to keep its powder dry so it can threaten retaliation in the event of an Israeli attack on its patrons in Tehran.

One day after Hamas launched the surprise attack that killed over 1,100 Israelis, Hezbollah intervened on Hamas’s side with rocket and artillery fire across Israel’s northern border. The attacks quickly spread across the breadth of the Blue Line—the de facto border between Israel and Lebanon—but their depth was limited, focusing on border towns and moshavs (collectives) like Shtula and Shlomi. The IDF retaliated by striking at the sources of the rocket and artillery fire, including southern Lebanese towns like Marwahin and Ayta Ash Shab. This choice of targets signaled that Israel sought to avoid escalation yet would exact a price from any unit that fired across the border.