As India ages, a secret shame emerges: Elders abandoned by their children

MATT SEDENSKY

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They were found in gutters, on streets, in bushes. They were boarded on trains, deserted in hospitals, dumped at temples. They were sent away for being sick or outliving paychecks or simply growing too old.

By the time they reached this home for the aged and unwanted, many were too numb to speak. Some took months to mouth the truth of how they came to spend their final days in exile.

“They said, ‘Taking care of him is not our cup of tea,’” says Amirchand Sharma, 65, a retired policeman whose sons left him to die near the river after he was badly hurt in an accident. “They said, ‘Throw him away.’”

In its traditions, in its religious tenets and in its laws, India has long cemented the belief that it is a child’s duty to care for his aging parents. But in a land known for revering its elderly, a secret shame has emerged: A burgeoning population of older people abandoned by their own families.

Would Trump Escalate the US-China Trade War?

Nancy Qian

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With Donald Trump still leading in polls ahead of the US presidential election, many are wondering how a second Trump administration would approach China. Trump’s stance on purely political issues is unclear. He recently remarked that Taiwan should pay for US defense, hinting at an unwillingness to defend the island from attack by China, even as his former – and perhaps future – advisers advocate a large military buildup in Asia. But Trump’s economic approach to China is much less ambiguous: the two countries are competitors, and America must win.

In this sense, Trump and the Republican Party are not so different from US President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. The Biden-Harris administration kept most of Trump’s China tariffs, and intensified the focus on the high-tech sector – particularly electric vehicles and batteries, which China has come to dominate. Politicians in both major parties have expressed concerns that the United States’ national security could be jeopardized should it be unable to manufacture its own clean tech, and that it could fall further behind in an industry that is important for the renewables-based economy of the future.

In his second presidential run, Trump has proposed more tariffs: a 10% tariff on every import, a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, and a 100% tariff on all cars made outside the US. This worries many economists because these sweeping tariffs, along with Trump’s other tax proposals, could cost Americans $500 billion per year, a burden that would be borne disproportionately by lower-income households, which rely more on cheap imports.

Moscow Mulls Reaction to Japan’s Expanding Military Ties With United States

Paul Goble

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At a meeting in Tokyo on July 28, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and their Japanese counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Minoru Kihara, respectively, announced that the two countries had agreed to establish a joint force headquarters in Japan to improve defense coordination. They also discussed the US commitment to “extended deterrence,” a diplomatic term for employing nuclear weapons to prevent any attack on the two countries. In a joint statement, the four officials expressed concerns over China’s growing assertiveness in the region, declaring that it represented “the greatest strategic challenge” facing the region and the world. In addition, they condemned Russia’s “growing and provocative strategic military cooperation” with China (The Japan Times, July 28; Fondsk.ru, July 30). Despite the obvious focus on Beijing, Moscow has reacted angrily to the meeting and its outcomes as if Russia, rather than China, were the primary target.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was the first Moscow official to react to the Tokyo declaration. He bemoaned the fact that “unfortunately, the current leadership of Japan has completely joined those in the collective West who are unfriendly to Russia and that this cannot fail to inflict harm on our bilateral relations” (Regnum, July 29). Peskov specified that in the first instance, the recent developments would lead to a downgrading in the reception of a Japanese delegation in Moscow this week. The Russian official, however, attributed this downgrading more to a decision by Tokyo to urge Japanese citizens not to visit Russia than to the joint declaration (Izvestiya, July 29).

Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat

Andrew Erickson

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Executive Summary

This paper addresses one of the most dangerous, consequential flashpoints on the planet today, and for years into the future: a potential attempt by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to annex Taiwan. The aftermath would likely trigger the worst economic shocks experienced in more than a century, unleashing a cycle of repression and diminishing the quality of life for populations across Asia and beyond, with devastating impacts on American interests and Americans’ well-being. Moreover, China’s annexation of Taiwan could exacerbate regional tensions and extend into a broader, global conflict. At stake are crucial interests such as the semiconductors that power today’s big data world and the national security of U.S. allies and partners. Neighboring states’ responses to PRC expansion could also result in the erosion of American military advantages as well as the destabilization of democracy and the international order.

With Xi Jinping, the paramount leader of the PRC, consolidating power and approaching the zenith of his ambitions and ability to execute them, this increasingly worrisome scenario and its profound implications demand immediate attention. With so much at stake, it is critical to take proactive measures to avert such a crisis. U.S. policymakers must urgently double down on efforts to deter Xi throughout this “decade of maximum danger.”

Quick Note: The Churn Continues

Anushka Saxena

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August 1st is marking the 97th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, and the week is being celebrated with great pomp and show on the one hand, and sombre inspections and hush-hush changes in PLA leadership on the other. While the nature of the leadership changes itself isn’t surprising, the fact that there is no official reportage or announcement on military media platforms such as 81.cn has led reportage to scourge for data from provincial coverage of Bāyī (八一; 81) ceremonies.

To begin with, as per a report published in ‘Southcn.com’ (Nanfang.com/南方网 or Southern+/南方+ yield the same results), in the afternoon of July 31 (China time), Guangdong Party Secretary Huang Kunming led a delegation to visit the Southern Theater Command headquarters and attended the 2024 Guangdong Province ‘August 1st’ Military Appreciation Symposium. This report of the Symposium adds that the attendees included Southern Theater Command Commander Wu Yanan and Political Commissar Wang Wenquan.

Rare Earths and Semiconductors in US Policymaking Amidst US-China Rivalry

Claus Soong

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Just like coal and oil in the past, rare earth elements (rare earths) and semiconductors have become vital to economic development and national security today. Unlike other strategic interests, rare earth and semiconductor chips require enormous intelligence and capital inputs to produce. Other than economic factors in production and manufacturing, geopolitical considerations are inevitably directing the path of technology policy, especially under the intensified US-China competition after the Trump Administration initiated the tech war and trade war against China. As strategic goods, rare earths and semiconductors show their significance toward unlocking the potential of green tech for the next-generation industrial revolution, such as producing efficient communication equipment and batteries. The sustainable supply of rare earth and semiconductors also involved substantial American interests in economic development and national security. Under the background of the US-China competition, as 90% of the supply of rare earth is controlled by China, rare earth elements could be politically weaponized. For semiconductors, under its Civilian-Military Integration Strategy, China seeks to develop the most advanced technology, evading American sanctions, and to use rare earths as a political weapon to paralyze the manufacturing supply chain are detrimental to American national interests and security.

Cooperation or Competition: US-China Dynamics on Climate Change

Jiwon Nam

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In August 2021, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres declared a “code red” for humanity in the face of human induced climate change (UN News Global perspective Human stories, 2021). Considering how many countries are affected by extreme climate events such as sea level rise and increased number of wildfires, climate change is significantly affecting day to day lives of people on earth. Slow but steady efforts to combat climate change have been facilitated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Despite continuous effort at the international level, progress toward limiting and reversing harmful effects of climate change has been lacking. One of the reasons that international efforts to combat climate change has been minimal is the inability to draw the collective efforts from key UN member countries. Countries that supposedly are able to bring effective influence to combatting climate change, such as the United States and China, have not been supportive of the global effort. For example, The United States officially became the first nation to withdraw from Paris climate agreement in 2020 three years after then-President Trump announced its withdrawal (McGrath, 2020).

The United States’ uncooperative position on climate change may be changing. When President Biden took office as the president of the United States in January 2021, one of his first actions was to rejoin the Paris Agreement. In the most recent UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP 26) meeting in Glasgow, the United States and China agreed to work together in the fight against climate change. This unprecedented movement towards cooperation from the United States and China indicates that the world’s most powerful two countries still have the potential to work together for the greater good despite their historically hostile relationship. Even so, it is important to recognize that there are still obstacles that potentially impede the full cooperation of the United States and China.

US China Competition in the Andean Region

Oscar Vidarte and Mayte Díaz Quichua

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When one thinks of Latin America from outside the region, they seem to be faced with a group of homogeneous countries, with similar language, culture and history. However, despite the links that unite them, the interests of Mexico and Central American countries, closely linked to the United States, are different from South America’s priorities. On the one side, Brazil and Argentina – large countries with a global presence, inserted within the Río de la Plata basin and with projection towards the Atlantic Ocean; on the other hand, the Andean Countries – smaller and with interests in the Pacific Ocean. The Andean countries are defined not only by the importance that the Andes – the mountain range that crosses South America from north to south – acquire for them but also by its belonging to the Andean Community. This organization, created in 1969, initially comprised Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Venezuela would then join in 1973, while Chile would withdraw in 1976. Decades later, in 2006, Venezuela would also withdraw from this supranational organization.

This research seeks to elaborate on the current competition between China and the United States to exert influence in the Andean region countries. To do so, considering the most important factors in the power transition (or hegemonic change) scenarios developed by Robert Gilpin (1981), emphasis will be placed on what is happening in economic (trade, investment and finance), technological, political and military matters, mainly in the second decade of the 21st Century. The premise of this research is to demonstrate that the presence of China has increased in recent years, but this is not only unequal, depending on the field, but it is also manifested in a greater deal in certain countries, such as Venezuela. Despite the abovementioned, China does not define its link with Andean countries in terms of ideology, as can be seen from the progress made with countries that have had left-wing governments (Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela) and with those mainly liberal (Chile, Colombia and Peru).

US-China Rivalry and the Future of Africa

Amara Galileo

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In November 2021, Antony Blinken made his maiden voyage as Secretary of State across the Atlantic to engage with sub-Saharan Africa. His first stop was to Kenya, where he met with President Uhuru Kenyatta to discuss regional security issues, primarily violence, terrorism, and political transitions in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia (Voice of America). After this two-day visit, he travelled to Abuja, Nigeria, where he addressed the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and noted some of Nigeria’s strengths—namely the nation’s perception as the “Giant of Africa,” its robust economy, engaged civil society, and even its cultural influence through the global diffusion of afrobeats music and its most notable culinary specialty—jollof rice. Finally, in Senegal, Blinken reaffirmed the U.S.’ desire to continue developing the U.S.-Senegal friendship which was first established six decades ago, and he urged the nation to continue modeling good governance and leading progress on strengthening democracy and security in West Africa (U.S. Department of State Press Release). According to Voice of America, the diplomatic effort via this multi-country tour was “aimed at raising America’s profile as a key player in the region as it competes with China” (Voice of America). The efforts marked a clear departure from the Trump administration’s apparent neglect of the continent.

The US-Iran-China Nexus: Towards a New Strategic Alignment

Toms Ratfelders

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The rise of China is one of the most popular topics in the contemporary IR debate. Its rise will be felt in most of the regions of the world and will influence global development for the decades to come. The purpose of this article is to explore the U.S.-Iran-China relationship triangle in the context of the rising Chinese influence within the U.S.-dominated hierarchical international system. It will provide certain policy recommendations the U.S. should undertake to counter the Chinese challenge to its global leadership by viewing the particular problem through the Middle Eastern and, more specifically – the Persian Gulf and the Iranian angles. The overreaching argument is that the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action provides the best bet America has for tackling the Chinese challenge to the U.S.-dominated global hierarchy. However, its full restoration in the initial form is unlikely. The scaled-down version of the JCPOA should be pursued instead.

The article is divided into two parts. In the first part, I begin with the two theoretical models utilized – 1) the multiple regional systems approach by Lemke and Werner (1996) and 2) imperial interpolarity by Nejad (2021). I then turn on to the overall description of the Chinese growing clout in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf sub-region before delving into the specific case of Iran. Within the case study, I put emphasis on the particular factors driving China-Iran cooperation and the domestic debates within the Iranian leadership circles on foreign policy vis-à-vis the U.S. and China. The second part focuses on the responses the U.S. should undertake regarding the problem highlighted in the first part. I begin with the overall American strategic considerations about the rise of China before highlighting their connection to the Middle East and Iran in particular. I then turn on to my central argument about the necessity to restore the JCPOA and the possible steps the U.S. could undertake to facilitate this matter.

US-China Power Struggle or Peaceful Coexistence: Will it Avoid the Thucydides Trap?

Mithlesh Jayas Mukherji

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Thucydides, an ancient Greek military historian wrote of the Peloponnesian War, “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this instilled in Sparta, that made war inevitable.” The term “Thucydides Trap” was coined by the American political scientist Graham Allison in an article in 2012 for the Economic Times (Allison 2015). This landmark article, based on 16 case studies from history, argues that whenever an existing great power is challenged by a newly rising power, there is a chance for a war. This analogy has been used in the context of a rising China to analyze whether there would be a transfer of power from the United States to China, and whether it would be peaceful. In the paper by the Belfer Center at Harvard University, in 12 out of the 16 case studies, changing power dynamics led to war (Belfer Center, n.d.). Analyzing the Belfer Center paper and the descriptions given by Thucydides in the Peloponnesian War, two key drivers of this dynamic are the rising power’s growing sense of entitlement and demand for greater say and sway, and the fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo this causes in the established power. Throughout history, an existing but weakening regional or global power has been replaced by an emerging one either through war or through internal succession. The change occurs when the weakening power gradually relinquishes space with the successor state gradually taking up the space ceded or, in cases of catastrophic defeat, an immediate or early exchange of spheres of control. In rare cases, the weakening power has shown a rare gumption to stand up and defeated the challenger, only to later collapse by the effort involved in defeating the challenger. There are also situations in which a combination of the above factors helps a challenger overcome the existing power.

US-China Dynamics: Competition, Conflict or Cooperation?

Muqtedar Khan, Jiwon Nam and Amara Galileo

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The rise of China and the US response to it is probably the most important issue of our times from the perspective of global politics. In this collection of articles, we plan to make a modest contribution to the broad question of whether there will be competition or conflict between the existing hegemon and the rising challenger by looking at how they are dealing with each other in different issue areas and in different regions. We look at US-China relations with regards to leadership on issues of migration, climate change, investments and global order, in Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. The key contribution of this series is to look at critical issues and regions in the context of US-China dynamics. Special attention will be given to US grand strategy and the possibility of shared hegemony. Scholars such as Schweiss (2003) have advanced the idea of shared hegemony by US and Europe who are already allies. Extending that idea we ask can there be a shared hegemony rather than a bipolar contest between US and China? Can the US and China be geopolitical and economic competitors yet jointly take responsibility for maintaining a global order that benefits all and work together to address planetary challenges such as climate change?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has become a proxy war between Russia and the West. The former challenged Western-backed order by annexing parts of Ukraine and the latter defending it by arming and funding Ukraine. Russia continues to receive help from China which has ramped up its imports from Russia that keeps its economy afloat and allows it to fund its war efforts despite sanctions and decoupling by Western economies. Ukraine has become the battleground where the current order is being contested and China clearly is playing on both sides – it is doing little to defend the current order but it is also not doing anything directly through military means to undermine it.

Xi highlights modernizing nation's defense

Zhao Lei

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Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, has called for the continuous improvement of the nation's border, coastal and air defense systems.

Xi, who is also Chinese president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, said on Tuesday that the modernization of the border, coastal and air defense systems is an inherent requirement of the overall modernization of China's national defense and armed forces, and an essential measure to safeguard the country's development and rejuvenation.

He said that border, coastal and air defense systems are important symbols of national sovereignty, major guardians of national security and a crucial foundation of national development, adding that the Party always attaches great importance to these.

Xi made the remarks at a study session of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee on Tuesday.

Since the 18th CPC National Congress in 2012, the Party has implemented a series of related reforms and measures. It has effectively protected the country's sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, and also ensured national security and a strategic advantage, said the general secretary.

Chinese communist, military writings reveal plans for strategic influence operations through TikTok

Bill Gertz

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The Chinese Communist Party and China’s military view TikTok as one of several strategic tools for both political-influence operations and military-support actions, according to an open-source intelligence report on the short-video sharing app.

The report by two former military and intelligence experts warns that continued use of the wildly popular video-sharing app in the United States will be used by Beijing to target young people and “shift American narratives subtly to favor a more China-centric worldview.”

The report made public recently examines a law signed by President Biden in April to force TikTok’s China-based owner, ByteDance, to sell the American operation to a non-Chinese government-linked owner or be banned nationally. A month later, ByteDance sued to oppose the law, saying it violates the First Amendment.

The Justice Department contended in a legal filing last last month that TikTok collects sensitive data on American users’ views of religion, abortion and gun control, and censors online material at the direction of ByteDance. The company’s American management has denied the charge.

Autocrats Wield Hostage-Taking as Potent Weapon Against West

Yaroslav Trofimov

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Authoritarian states around the world are arbitrarily imprisoning foreign citizens, using them as bargaining chips to achieve geopolitical goals.

Hostage-taking by nation-states—something practiced more often by terrorists and insurgents in the past—has become more and more frequent in recent years. The phenomenon poses a new challenge to Western democracies, especially as rivals like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, all of which have engaged in such behavior, grow closer together amid raging conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The playing field is skewed. Countries with rule of law and independent judiciaries cannot just order tit-for-tat reprisals, grabbing similar hostages in return. They’re also constrained in what they can do to ban travel of their own citizens to adversary nations. Currently, hundreds of citizens of the U.S. and allied democracies are estimated to be held by authoritarian regimes for political reasons, with Russia alone grabbing several Americans in recent months.

Destroying the world in French style, anything goes, nothing stands

Konstantinos Bogdanos

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What we saw a week ago at the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympiad did not just come out of the blue. The meticulous cancellation of the Western culture that the French organisers presented to the world is the result of many decades of cultural preparation.

Wokeness did not just appear out of thin air. Rather it is the outcome of cultural Marxism, which sprang from Europe and took over the United States through the so-called Frankfurt School, before returning to the Old Continent via France.

Leftist intellectuals, who fled from wartime Europe to the United States and nested in Ivy League universities, began their campaign of undermining and dismantling Western values in the first post-war decades.

And while the United States have been at the forefront of this global movement, its European hub has undoubtedly been France. In fact, after the first generation of mostly German-born intellectuals laid the foundations, it was French thinkers who picked up and cemented the campaign of Western deconstruction.

U.S.POURED BILLIONS OF MILITARY AID INTO LEBANON. NOW ISRAEL THREATENS TO INVADE.

Nick Turse

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ATTACKS BETWEEN ISRAEL and Hezbollah, the militia and political party based just across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, are fueling in a low-level war with Israel since the conflict in Gaza began last October. Hezbollah, which is believed to have an arsenal of more than 150,000 rockets and missiles, has repeatedly emphasized that attacks will continue as long as the war persists.

Over the weekend, a rocket attack that the U.S. and Israel said originated in Lebanon killed at least 12 civilians in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. The Israeli foreign minister said that the attack “crossed all red lines,” and said “the moment of all-out war against Hezbollah and Lebanon” is approaching. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the strike.

On Monday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken cautioned Israeli President Isaac Herzog about ramping up its war with Hezbollah in response on a call, according to State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.

But the conflict has been escalating for weeks. Israel has increased airstrikes aimed at the group. Current and former Israeli officials have also spoken publicly about shifting their attention from Hamas to the more powerful Hezbollah.

U.S. Military Lacks Capability to Deter War or Prevail in Combat!

Monte Erfourth

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Introduction

A bipartisan panel reviewing U.S. defense strategy found that America's odds of fighting a major war are the highest in 80 years, and its military isn't prepared. The most damning sentence in the Committee’s report is that the “U.S. military lacks both the capabilities and the capacity required to be confident it can deter and prevail in combat.”[i]

The 2024 Commission on the National Defense Strategy assessed the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) in a nearly 100-page report criticizing the Pentagon for being slow, Congress for partisanship, and multiple administrations for complacency towards threats from China, Russia, and the Middle East. The report released in July, produced with the help of outside experts, underscores the urgent need for public awareness and readiness, comparing the current deficit of preparedness to post-Vietnam, Cold War-era readiness.

Coexisting Influence: The Sino-American Competition in Europe

Spencer Whyte

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For decades, scholars have written on the decline of the United States (US), the rise of China, and the seemingly inevitable hegemonic competition between the powers as the international system morphs from a period of post-Cold War American unipolarity to something new (Mearsheimer 2001; Ikenberry 2008; Blackwill and Tellis 2015). Debate swirls as to China’s intentions as it rises, how the US should respond to its reduction in relative power capabilities, and whether or not a Chinese-dominated international system would differ in significant ways from the current world order. Tensions between the US and China have already begun to rise as evidenced by the Trump administration’s public ‘trade war’, the Biden administration’s diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, and the ramping up of military capabilities on both sides in the South China Sea.

As these two poles on opposite ends of the globe battle for supremacy, another power is likely to have significant influence over the functioning of international politics: Europe. The continent of Europe is home to a number of developed and industrialized, populous and prosperous states that, combined under the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), hold significant military, economic, and cultural power. The combined economies of the EU and United Kingdom (UK) have the second-highest gross domestic product (GDP) in the world, trailing only the US (World Bank 2021). The militaries of Europe are among some of the most advanced in the world, with nuclear capabilities independent of the American arsenal. If China wants to de-throne the US as the leader of the international system, or achieve a system of shared hegemony, it will likely need to at least weaken the trans-Atlantic alliance that has bolstered American predominance since the end of World War II. At the same time, if the US hopes to stave off China’s growth in power, it will likely need its European allies to help curb the economic giant’s continued ascendence.

Hezbollah Leader Threatens Retaliation Against Israel, Saying Conflict Is in ‘New Phase’

Euan Ward

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The leader of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said on Thursday that its conflict with Israel had entered a new phase after an Israeli strike in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, this week. But his vow to respond fell far short of the fiery pledge to escalate that some residents and officials had feared.

Mr. Nasrallah’s speech had been nervously awaited since the Israeli strike on Tuesday, which killed Fuad Shukr, one of his close confidantes and a top-ranking Hezbollah commander. A top Hamas leader was killed in Iran hours later, fueling worries around the Middle East that Israel’s hostilities with Iran and its allies could erupt into all-out regional war.

But although Mr. Nasrallah promised that Hezbollah would respond, he equivocated on the scope and nature of that retaliation.

“We have entered a new phase,” he said, speaking in a televised address during the funeral for Mr. Shukr. “You do not realize the red lines you have crossed,” warned Mr. Nasrallah, addressing Israel directly.

Russian advances in Donetsk threaten Ukrainian lines of supply

John T Psaropoulos

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During the last week of July, Russia mounted its largest assaults in eight months in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, seizing a string of settlements in an apparent bid to cut off key supply routes and force a mass Ukrainian retreat.

At the same time, Ukraine scored a high number of hits on Russian energy infrastructure and occupied Crimea, suggesting that its strategy of degrading Russian air defences is working.

Russian assaults focused on central and southern Donetsk – from areas west of Bakhmut, which fell in May last year, to areas west of Avdiivka, which was lost in February, down to areas west of the city of Donetsk, which pro-Moscow separatists have controlled since 2014 – a line about 130km (80 miles) long.

Russian forces have pressed their advantage in these areas to prevent Ukraine from digging entrenched defences, and they have inched forward for months, swallowing settlements at a staggering cost to their own troops.

‘Great for Netanyahu’: Will Haniyeh killing help Israeli PM politically?

Mat Nashed

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The assassinations of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon this week could help Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regain domestic support as he fights for his political survival, say analysts, even though they may jeopardise hopes for the release of Israeli captives.

“The assassination of Haniyeh is great for Netanyahu’s political and security credentials,” Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera. “That is undoubtedly a political fact.”

Israel has been wracked by internal unrest and divisions, first with months of protests over controversial judicial reforms that Netanyahu’s government pushed through, then with a growing movement critical of the prime minister’s failure to secure a ceasefire deal with Hamas that could lead to the release of captives.

This week, far-right Israelis – including ministers and members of the Knesset – reacted angrily to the arrest of soldiers accused of torturing and raping Palestinian prisoners. A mob stormed the base where the soldiers were being held. Divisions between Israel’s political and security officials have also increasingly become public.

AI and National Security

Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

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Humans are a tool-making species, but can we control the tools we make? When Robert Oppenheimer and other physicists developed the first nuclear fission weapon in the 1940s, they worried that their invention might destroy humanity. Thus far, it has not, but controlling nuclear weapons has been a persistent challenge ever since.

McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2024

Lareina Yee, Michael Chui, and Roger Roberts 

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Despite challenging overall market conditions in 2023, continuing investments in frontier technologies promise substantial future growth in enterprise adoption. Generative AI (gen AI) has been a standout trend since 2022, with the extraordinary uptick in interest and investment in this technology unlocking innovative possibilities across interconnected trends such as robotics and immersive reality. While the macroeconomic environment with elevated interest rates has affected equity capital investment and hiring, underlying indicators—including optimism, innovation, and longer-term talent needs—reflect a positive long-term trajectory in the 15 technology trends we analyzed.

These are among the findings in the latest McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook, in which the McKinsey Technology Council identified the most significant technology trends unfolding today. This research is intended to help executives plan ahead by developing an understanding of potential use cases, sources of value, adoption drivers, and the critical skills needed to bring these opportunities to fruition.

Our analysis examines quantitative measures of interest, innovation, investment, and talent to gauge the momentum of each trend. Recognizing the long-term nature and interdependence of these trends, we also delve into the underlying technologies, uncertainties, and questions surrounding each trend. (For more about new developments in our research, please see the sidebar “What’s new in this year’s analysis”; for more about the research itself, please see the sidebar “Research methodology.”)

Airstrikes, Artificial Intelligence, and Sabotage Drive Russian Psyops

Yuri Lapaiev

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On July 19, former member of parliament and philology professor Iryna Farion, a prominent defender of the Ukrainian language, was murdered in Lviv (The Kyiv Independent, July 19). ). The subsequent investigation stated that Farion’s murder seems to have coincided with the alleged planned murder of a current member of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament), Maksym Buzhansky, known for his ambiguous pro-Russian positions (ZN.ua, July 26). According to Maryana Reva, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, among the motives for the murder of such high-profile persons may be Russian efforts to destabilize and subvert Ukrainian society (Ukrinform, July 25). The Russian Federation continues to wage information warfare against Ukraine and the world as part of its conventional war. The main goals of this hybrid influence remain undermining the capabilities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to facilitate Russian military operations at the front and destabilize the country’s internal political and social situation. Currently, the Kremlin has focused its efforts on several areas. One important area of emphasis is to undermine Kyiv’s mobilization drive. This is done by highlighting violations and shortcomings in the mobilization process (real and fake) and creating a negative image of the military personnel already in the Ukrainian army. Russia’s attempts at destabilizing Ukraine through hybrid warfare and the use of digital propaganda highlight the evolving state of modern warfare.

Unravelling Geopolitics

Tanmay Kadam

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The trajectory of Sino-Indian relations in recent months has raised expectations of a potential thaw between the two countries. Nothing wrong with seeking stable relations with neighbors but New Delhi should exercise caution, as the discourse within the Chinese strategic community has been suggestive of further deterioration of relations in the coming months.

Officials from Indian and China held the 30th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) in New Delhi on July 31st, to discuss the “early resolution of the outstanding issues” in their ongoing stand-off along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The meeting comes days after talks held between the Indian External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on July 25, on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Laos, where the two had decided on an “early meeting” of the WMCC for the speedy resolution of the border dispute.

The EAM Jaishankar had expressed hope that the meeting on July 25 would allow the two ministers to “give stronger guidance” to officials to complete the disengagement process which had “cast a shadow” over India-China ties.

Most notably, the meeting between the Indian and Chinese foreign ministers on July 25 was the second such meeting between the two in less than a month, and the occurrence of the 30th WMCC meeting mere days after that is indicative of a sense of urgency in efforts to resolve the border issue.

India Moves in on Southeast Asia

Victoria Herczegh

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Last week, the foreign ministers of India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations met in Vientiane to discuss ways to enhance political, security and economic relations and to address regional issues, including China’s assertiveness and the crisis in Myanmar. In his address, India’s top diplomat said ASEAN was the cornerstone of India’s vision for an open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.

It was, to some extent, in keeping with precedent. India-ASEAN relations have been on sound footing since 1995. But things started to change during China’s economic explosion in the early 2010s. Its unprecedented growth was attractive to ASEAN’s ambitious developing members (Indonesia and Thailand), while poorer countries (Cambodia and Myanmar) saw trade with the rising superpower as a remedy to their economic and financial problems. Though it was easier to do business with China than with India, where efficient economic reforms were introduced much later, Beijing also began working against India by entering into small regional networks and partnerships, integrating itself into as many economic schemes as it could. China outmatched India to become the top trade and security partner for ASEAN – a position that seemed secure and fruitful for both sides.

Then came India’s own rapid economic ascent. Though its rise was slower than China’s, India is now seen the world over as a viable competitor to China, one capable of defeating the East Asian giant and leading economic growth by the end of the decade. Indeed, China is not as reliable as it once was, its economic decline marked by unkept promises on investment and dozens of unfinished or stalled infrastructure projects all over Southeast Asia. Beijing’s assertive military presence and disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea have also strained ties with the bloc. India has thus seized the opportunity to improve its standing with ASEAN, openly advocating “ASEAN centrality” as the best way to promote stability and growth in the region.

China needs to pick a side, and it just might pick the Wes

Chee Meng Tan

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a group photo during the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019. 

For the Kremlin, its “partner of no limits”, China, isn’t doing enough to aid Russia’s war against Ukraine. So, Russia has signed a peace treaty with North Korea, hoping to pressure China into backing Moscow’s war effort further.

Meanwhile, the West sees China as far too helpful to Russia. The sentiment in the West was best captured on July 10, 2024, during a summit in Washington DC.

Heads of state and governments of NATO countries jointly proclaimed that China is a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against the Ukraine, and also called on China “to cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort.”

To the West, China’s aid, though short of actual weapons supply, is more than enough to fuel Russia’s war machine. This in turn poses a security threat to Europe.

But NATO’s message and Russia’s implicit code to China seem to indicate one thing: Beijing’s fence-sitting days are numbered, and it needs to choose a side. Unfortunately for Russia, China may be forced to pick the West.

Signs that China is already pivoting to the West have started to appear. Speculation was rife in late 2023 that China’s panda diplomacy (where it gifts the lease of the bears to foreign zoos) was on the way out amid worsening ties with the West.

But in mid-2024, Beijing sent more pandas to Spain and Vienna, as well as the US tech center of California. President Xi Jinping also went on state visits to the US, Europe, Australia and New Zealand to mend ties with the West.

Forecasting Hezbollah’s Next Move

Rany Ballout

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Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, and reportedly Hamas, on Tuesday and Wednesday mark a significant escalation in the Gaza war and bring Israel and Iran’s “axis of resistance” closer to all-out war than at any time since the October 7 Hamas attack. An Israeli airstrike on Tuesday killed Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, in response to an attack (reportedly by Hezbollah, although the militant group denied it) on an Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday that killed twelve children and teenagers. On Wednesday, a detonation by an explosive device, reportedly by Israel, killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

The world is now watching how Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran will respond to such attacks. Iran has reportedly vowed a direct retaliation to Haniyeh’s assassination. Yesterday, Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah indicated that Hezbollah is probing “a studied response” in the next few days to the killing of Shukr and what he characterized as Israeli aggression against Lebanon.

Understanding the information warfare and narratives of “purported” deterrence conducted by Hezbollah against Israel and the United States in the leading up to Israel’s recent attacks is critical since it may help provide insight into the nature of Hezbollah’s response to Israel’s attack. Such information warfare was in response to Israel’s persistent warning of a major military operation against the militant group. In particular, the scale of Hezbollah’s response, given its geostrategic proximity to Israel—and especially if it is coordinated with a direct attack by Iran—would determine if the low-level conflict will slide into a full-scale war.

Waging the Wrong War in Yemen

Alexandra Stark

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The Iranian-backed Houthis are proving to be a stubborn problem for the United States and its allies. Ever since Hamas’s October 7 massacre and Israel’s subsequent offensive in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis, a Shiite rebel group that controls a substantial portion of Yemen after a nearly decade-long civil war, have lashed out at Israel and tried to use their perch on the Red Sea to disrupt business as usual. They have attacked commercial and military ships in the region, stirring a U.S.-led coalition to try to rein them in. But the best efforts of this coalition

Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination Will Expand the Israel-Iran Conflict

Alexander Langlois

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Israel’s decision to assassinate Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, although not yet claimed by Tel Aviv, and Lebanese Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr on July 30 and 31 is sending shockwaves throughout the Middle East. The twin assassinations mark another dangerous inflection point for the region as Iran and Israel continue to escalate their shadow war increasingly into open military exchanges. Yet the assassinations, alongside broader violence, will not end what is already a regional war or the conflict in Gaza. Instead, these actions will likely produce more instability while expanding opportunities for miscalculation.

Israel assassinated Shukr in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold. The strike targeted his high-rise residence, killing at least seven people and injuring roughly seventy. Although Israel has not claimed it, a bomb that it planted weeks prior in a guesthouse for foreign dignitaries and Iranian allies in northern Tehran likely killed Haniyeh and his bodyguard. The latter attack aims to pigeonhole Iran while embarrassing it by killing a major figure in Iran’s capital following the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian—hardly a coincidence considering his reformist platform calling for talks with the West.

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” leaders pledged revenge against Israel for the assassinations, with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declaring that war with Israel has now entered a “new phase.” The United States continues to claim that it was “not aware” of the strike in Tehran, although it has remained relatively quiet about the Beirut strike while arguing Israel has a right to defend itself.

The Middle East Is Inching Toward Another War

Trita Parsi

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There is little doubt that Israel was behind the audacious assassination of Hamas’ hostage-deal negotiator and political head Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday. By deliberately maximizing Tehran’s embarrassment—Haniyeh was killed only hours after the inauguration of Iran’s new reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian—the Israeli government also maximized the likelihood of Iranian retaliation. That is—at least in the view of a former Deputy Head of the Israeli National Security Council—because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to spark a larger war and drag the U.S. into it.

Though Israel itself would pay a high price in a region-wide war, it would serve Netanyahu’s interests in numerous ways.

Firstly, Haniyeh’s assassination kills the prospect of an imminent ceasefire deal. Netanyahu has consistently opposed a deal that would end the war. The Israeli daily Haaretz revealed that, in prior rounds of negotiations, he strategically leaked sensitive information to the media at crucial moments to sabotage talks. As President Biden told TIME when asked whether Netanyahu was prolonging the war for the sake of his political career, “There is every reason to draw that conclusion.” Netanyahu knows that a hostage deal will collapse his government and end his reign as Prime Minister. It would also likely mean the expedition of his ongoing corruption trial, which may very well land him in jail. Nothing kills these talks more effectively than ending the life of the negotiator on the other side of the table.

Secondly, Haniyeh’s killing may corner a future President Kamala Harris. While the Biden Administration has consistently blamed Hamas for the failure to reach a deal, there are signs Harris could take a different approach to Biden’s near-complete deference to Israel. “As I just told Prime Minister Netanyahu, it is time to get this deal done,” she said after he visited Washington last week, pinning the blame for the lack of progress at his feet. Her cold body language, her expression of empathy for the suffering of Palestinians, and her willingness to publicly point to Israel’s obfuscation were hard for Netanyahu to miss.

Tech Failings Plagued Secret Service at Trump Rally

C. Ryan Barber

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TAP FOR SOUNDActing Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe said that technical issues contributed to a massive communications failure at the July 13 rally where a gunman tried to kill Donald Trump. Photo: Kevin Mohatt/Reuters

WASHINGTON—Spotty cellular service, malfunctioning technology and unused equipment contributed to a major communications breakdown during the rally where a gunman tried to kill Donald Trump, just when law enforcement needed to share information the most, the top Secret Service official said Friday.

Among other problems, there were no Secret Service agents inside a command post set up by local police ahead of the July 13 rally, meaning critical information couldn’t easily get to the agency protecting the former president.

“It is plainly obvious to me that we didn’t have access to certain information,” acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe said.

Urged by lawmakers to share more information publicly, Rowe offered new glimpses into the security failure at the rally in western Pennsylvania, where a 20-year-old gunman was able to access a rooftop with a clear line of sight to Trump and open fire with an AR-15 rifle. A spectator was killed, two others were injured and Trump suffered a bullet wound to the ear.

Inside the Secret Service Failures That Led to Trump Shooting

Inside the Secret Service Failures That Led to Trump ShootingPlay video: Inside the Secret Service Failures That Led to Trump Shooting

The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump is the biggest Secret Service crisis in decades. Two former agents explain what went wrong. Photo: JJ Lin

Economic and Technological Zones: Economic Strategy in the Tibet Autonomous Region

Devendra Kumar

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Executive Summary:New Economic and Technology Development Zones (ETDZs) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are focused on pockets of the Han population, which will exacerbate tensions within the region. The Tibetan economy is already largely under Han control (except for in the agriculture and livestock sectors), and Han people constitute the majority group in many of Tiber’s urban centers.

The TAR government has set up the zones to import practices from elsewhere in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and shift the region’s economy away from traditional sectors and toward export-oriented industries, construction, and even high-tech manufacturing.

The TAR’s external trade is currently limited to Nepal, due to ongoing border tensions with India. Meanwhile, infrastructural challenges hampering the development of the Sichuan-Tibet railway or national highways connecting the TAR with other provinces suggest that further integration with the rest of the PRC remains some way off.

In a related policy, the PRC has developed border towns strategically located near land border ports that it has built along its borders with India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Infrastructure buildup on the border could also serve a dual-use purpose in the case of a conflict, as has been the case in India in recent years.

Russia vs Ukraine: the biggest war of the fake news era

Max Hunder

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KHARKIV, Ukraine, July 31 (Reuters) - In early April, some residents of Kharkiv received a series of chilling text messages from government officials telling them to flee the city before Russian forces surrounded it.

"Due to the threat of enemy encirclement, we urge the civilian population of Kharkiv leave the city by April 22," said one alert, which bore the logo of the State Emergencies Service of Ukraine and mapped out safe escape routes on a slick infographic.

It was fake. Volodymyr Tymoshko knew immediately. He's the police chief of Kharkiv region and would have been one of the first to find out about any official evacuation plans.

"Residents started getting these notifications en masse," the 50-year-old told Reuters as he shared a screenshot of the alert, sent as Russian troops were massing at the border 30 km away.

"This is a psychological operation, it triggers panic. What would an average citizen think when they receive such a message?"

Disinformation and propaganda, long mainstays of war, have been digitally supercharged in the battle for Ukraine, the biggest conflict the world has seen since the advent of smartphones and social media.

Tymoshko said he received about 10 similar messages via SMS and Telegram messenger in April and early May, the weeks leading up to Russia's offensive in northeastern Ukraine that began on May 10 and opened up a new front in the war.

A Ukrainian security official, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said the Russians frequently sent large numbers of text messages from devices attached to an Orlan-10 long-range reconnaissance drone which can penetrate dozens of kilometres into Ukrainian airspace.