Can Taiwan’s Chip Giant Make Nice With Trump?

Ray Wang

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U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and has previously accused Taiwan of stealing the U.S. chip industry. These accusations should be a concern for Taiwan, but—like much of Trump’s talk—is likely intended as a negotiating tactic.

The primary strategic goal for the administration is to revitalize advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the United States. In 2022, the United States accounted for less than 1 percent of global fabrication capacity in advanced logic chip manufacturing—although the figure is projected to grow to 28 percent by 2032 as foreign chipmakers, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) in Arizona and Samsung in Texas, gradually ramp up advanced chip production. Both were incentivized by the Biden administration’s CHIPS and Science Act. Now, Trump is also seeking to rescue struggling U.S. chipmaker Intel—particularly its foundry division, Intel Foundry Services (IFS).

To China, DeepSeek is more than an app—it's a strategic turning point

TYE GRAHAM and PETER W. SINGER

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During this year’s Lunar New Year celebrations, a remote village in China’s Guangdong province became an unexpected center of attention. Crowds of visitors flocked to the hometown of DeepSeek’s founder, Liang Wenfeng, eager to glimpse the modest house where one of China’s most influential AI pioneers had grown up. Once an unremarkable rural enclave, the village was now decorated with banners reading, "Welcome home, Wenfeng—your hometown is proud of you!"

The celebrations contrasted sharply with the U.S. reaction to the Hangzhou-based company's announcement of a ChatGPT-like AI tool: “a collective wail from the White House, Wall Street and Silicon Valley.” For U.S. political leaders, it was, as President Trump said, a “wakeup call” that China could not just compete, but maybe leap ahead in key technologies with major national security implications. It poked a hole in the self-confident narrative of the handful of U.S. tech oligarchs who increasingly drive domestic politics. And it shocked stock markets, sparking a sell-off among major AI firms over $1 trillion.

But to Chinese policymakers and defense analysts, DeepSeek means far more than local pride in a hometown kid made good. They view it as a breakthrough that reinforces China’s strategic autonomy and reshapes the balance of power in the U.S.-China AI competition. By demonstrating an ability to innovate under sanctions, bypass Western technological barriers, and accelerate AI advancements on its own terms, China has sent a stark message: it can and will compete at the highest levels of AI development.

Race to the Future: Accelerating America’s Technological Edge in the Tech Competition with China

Mohammed Soliman

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The 21st century will be defined by a race between two competing technological models—one driven by state-directed industrial policy, the other by entrepreneurial dynamism. At stake is not just economic leadership but the architecture of global power itself. The technologies shaping this contest—AI, hypersonic aviation, space-based infrastructure—require vast energy resources, streamlined regulatory frameworks, and a skilled workforce. The challenge for the United States is not merely to innovate faster than China but to remove the bureaucratic inertia that threatens to slow its progress.

If the U.S. fails to counterbalance China’s long-term vision, it risks ceding entire technological domains to Beijing. This requires radical reforms: streamlining approvals for next-generation aviation and satellite networks, accelerating nuclear and geothermal energy permitting, and expanding AI semiconductor research beyond the constraints of traditional funding cycles. The U.S. must also double down on STEM education and workforce development. Studies published in 2023, using the most available data from 2020, shows that China graduates 3.57 million STEM students annually—over four times the U.S. total. Washington cannot compete on numbers alone, but it can aggressively scale AI and semiconductor vocational training through apprenticeship programs, military reskilling initiatives, and federally backed innovation hubs.

Did We Learn Anything From the War in Ukraine?

Olena Guseinova

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Three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the world is still grappling with the war’s implications. While the conflict has upended long-held Western assumptions about the post-Cold War order, some have yet to fully grasp the fact that realpolitik is not merely back in fashion – it never truly left the scene.

Europe was forced to confront this sobering reality the hard way. Will the Indo-Pacific do better? Much will depend on the conclusions regional powers draw from Ukraine’s experience. The war may have offered a wealth of insights, but their interpretations remain highly contested. If misread – whether due to perceived regional differences, a lingering belief in the resilience of the liberal order, or misplaced faith in China’s pragmatism – the region risks echoing the strategic missteps that proved disastrous for Europe. To avoid such pitfalls, the Indo-Pacific must critically reassess and internalise the war’s most vital lessons.

Russia Is Celebrating the Destruction of a German Howitzer in Ukraine

Christian D. Orr

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That said, most Western media anecdotes pertain to the stunning individual achievements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the air, on the land, and on the sea, to Vladimir Putin’s great embarrassment. Meanwhile, coverage of individual Russian battlefield triumphs has been comparatively less. But in what might be a reflection of how the times are changing—to include a change in the fortunes of war—at least one Western media outlet has reported a Russian tactical victory that has Putin’s troops absolutely giddy.

What happened to Ukraine’s German-made howitzer?

The story comes to us from reporter Joe Brennan in an article for AS USA (the English language edition of Spain’s Diario AS) republished on MSN last week with the title “Euphoria among Russian soldiers on stumbling upon what they had been chasing for 3 years: ‘As if they had invaded Berlin’.” 

he Pentagon should abandon Soviet-era centralized planning

Bryan Clark and Dan Patt

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Ukraine’s battlefield transformation shows how fast a military can adapt when it stops trying to predict the future. After less than two years at war, Ukraine ditched a clunky, centrally-planned acquisition system and replaced it with a weapon delivery pipeline driven by real-time operational feedback, commercial partnerships, and direct engagement with frontline operators. The Pentagon should follow suit.

The top-down requirements process Ukraine’s military inherited from Moscow in the 1990s kept headquarters analysts employed but left 87 percent of needs unfulfilled. Today, warfighters get the final say in what gets built. Drones that once relied on GPS and luck now use automated navigation and targeting algorithms to overcome operator error and Russian jamming, raising success rates from 20 percent to 70 percent. The newest generation uses fiber-optic cable for communication to eliminate the threat of electronic interference.

The Pentagon’s approach to weapon development looks more like the one used by Soviet apparatchiks. Requirements officers in the Joint Staff and military services try to guess capability gaps and potential solutions years in advance. By the time these analyses emerge from the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) two years later, the threat has changed, technology has marched on, and a different solution is likely needed.

A Bridge Too Far?

Lee Smith

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A lively and sometimes fractious debate over Donald Trump administration foreign policy is now in full swing in D.C. It started on X when pro-Trump activist Charlie Kirk posted that Sen. Tom Cotton was keeping Trump nominee Elbridge (“Bridge”) Colby from getting confirmed at the Defense Department—and it culminated with the vice president of the United States stomping on Tablet colleague Park MacDougald.

It was X, formerly Twitter, in its Platonic form, what the app was meant to be but rarely has been, a public forum inviting the famous and unknown to trade their thoughts and feelings in hope that all may profit from the exchange—sort of like when Hollywood star James Woods answers questions about the big-name actors he’s worked with, and he responds with grace and tact to give the public an inside view.

In this case, though, big-name political figures were the stars—and the gloves were off. Kirk wrote Cotton was impeding Colby because he’s “one of the most important pieces to stop the Bush/Cheney cabal at DOD,” and invited X users to venture their own theories. The editor of Tablet’s Scroll newsletter posted in response that it had nothing to do with a neocon cabal at DOD. The reason Republican senators had a problem with Colby is because he is in effect a Democrat.

Hamas’s Theater of the Macabre

Yair Rosenberg

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At first, Thursday’s festivities in Gaza seemed like just another sordid spectacle in a 16-month exhibition of debasement. In front of a raucous crowd, Hamas gunmen displayed coffins containing the remains of four Israelis: an octagenarian peace activist named Oded Lifshitz, child hostages Ariel and Kfir Bibas—ages 4 years and nine months, respectively, when kidnapped—and their mother, Shiri. A label affixed to the latter’s coffin declared that she had been “arrested” on October 7, presumably for the crime of existing while Jewish. All four corpses were handed over to the Red Cross for transfer to Israel as part of the ongoing cease-fire deal.

Then Israeli coroners concluded that the two children had been murdered by their captors and that the woman’s body wasn’t their mother’s after all. A moment of particularly acute horror briefly broke through the headlines that have been dominated by President Donald Trump’s turn on Ukraine. “I condemn the parading of bodies and displaying of the coffins of the deceased Israeli hostages by Hamas on Thursday,” declared United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, an otherwise relentless critic of Israel. “Any handover of the remains of the deceased must comply with the prohibition of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment.”

Here’s how Trump can still win in Ukraine

Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth

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Monday marked the third anniversary of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Although President Trump, NATO and the European Union continue spinning their wheels trying to agree on an end state to the war, Russia continues attacking Ukrainian civilian population centers and energy infrastructure, and conducting relentless “meat assaults” on the front lines.

Team Trump is becoming lost in a fog of its own making. Trump cannot bring himself to see Putin as a dictator, and his administration is astonishingly blaming Ukraine and NATO for causing Russia to invade.

It is only getting worse. During an interview on Fox New Sunday with Shannon Bream, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth refused to blame Putin. Instead, he deflected, saying, “Fair to say it’s a very complicated situation.”

Yesterday, the U.S. voted against a U.N. General Assembly resolution declaring Russia the aggressor in Ukraine and calling for the immediate complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukraine. The resolution passed anyway, leaving the White House astonishingly standing on the Moscow’s side.

How to prevent the next war in Europe: A five-point plan

Claudia Major, Carlo Masala, Christian Mölling & Jana Puglierin

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Great-power thinking, disdain for alliances, and a bitter culture war—these three terms describe the new relationship between Europe and the United States following recent developments at the Munich Security Conference.

Although much remains to be seen, the general direction is clear: the US is stepping back from its leading political and military role.

Washington has initiated negotiations with Russia over the heads of Ukraine and other Europeans—presenting everyone with a fait accompli. The US is right to call on Europeans to contribute more to defence and has announced a rebalancing of its own policy towards Asia.

While the substance of these pronouncements was hardly surprising, their scope and sharpness were. The US has not (yet), as feared, announced it will withdraw its troops from Europe. But its actions and behaviour do not appear to be those of an ally. Europe must now try to shape this transatlantic rift itself.

With recent developments, the risk of another war in Europe has increased. In the logic of great-power politics, President Donald Trump immediately offered Russian president Vladimir Putin negotiations—without prior involvement of Ukraine—as if it were no longer a sovereign state.

The Spectre of Populism Is Haunting the EU

Mick Hume

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Sunday’s German elections showed the likely future direction of European politics. An uncertain future in which the old right and left parties of the establishment are struggling to hold their ground, and hold onto power, in the face of a growing populist revolt.

And if the establishment forces cannot contain the revolt in Germany, the powerful heart of the European Union, what chance will they have elsewhere?

When it became clear that his party had topped the polls, Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Germany’s next chancellor, tried to declare an “historic” victory. The results did indeed make history, though not in the way that Merz claimed.

The CDU, with its ally the Christian Social Union (CSU), won just 28.5% of the vote—the Christian Democrats’ second-worst result in a modern general election, up only 4% on its lowest-ever result last time. The ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) under Olaf Scholz received 16.4% of the vote—its worst-ever result.

The World Trump Wants

Michael Kimmage

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In the two decades that followed the Cold War’s end, globalism gained ground over nationalism. Simultaneously, the rise of increasingly complex systems and networks—institutional, financial, and technological—overshadowed the role of the individual in politics. But in the early 2010s, a profound shift began. By learning to harness the tools of this century, a cadre of charismatic figures revived the archetypes of the previous one: the strong leader, the great nation, the proud civilization.

The shift arguably began in Russia. In 2012, Vladimir Putin ended a short experiment during which he left the presidency and spent four years as prime minister while a compliant ally served as president. Putin returned to the top job and consolidated his authority, crushing all opposition and devoting himself to rebuilding “the Russian world,” restoring the great-power status that had evaporated with the fall of the Soviet Union, and resisting the dominance of the United States and its allies. Two years later, Xi Jinping made it to the top in China. His aims were like Putin’s but far grander in scale—and China had far greater capabilities. In 2014, Narendra Modi, a man with vast aspirations for India, completed his long political ascent to the prime minister’s office and established Hindu nationalism as his country’s dominant ideology. That same year, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had spent just over a decade as Turkey’s hard-driving prime minister, became its president. In short order, Erdogan transformed his country’s factionalized democratic ensemble into an autocratic one-man show.

Die Linke is back

Ulrike Franke

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The results from the German election are in. The winner is Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats, although with the second-worst result in the party’s history: 28.5%. Politically, there is only one two-party coalition possible, the alliance formerly known as the “grand coalition”, i.e. a coalition of the conservatives and the social democrats (SPD) who secured just 16.4% of the vote.

Together, they have 328 seats in the Bundestag, 12 more than needed for a majority, an acceptable, though not great margin. Hence, a CDU-led government with a Chancellor Merz and the SPD as the smaller coalition partner seems almost guaranteed, despite rumblings within the SPD. This, to be clear, is not a coalition formed out of enthusiasm or political compatibility, but mainly a lack of alternatives.

Most international observers have, beyond the question of who will form the government, focused on the other obvious winner of these elections: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which secured a whopping 20.8% of the votes, coming in second. It gained over 10 percentage points compared to three years ago, and in some constituencies in East Germany, got over 40% of the votes. AfD is entering the parliament with 152 MPs. (Mathematically, a CDU/CSU coalition with the AfD is also possible, this option has however been categorically excluded by Merz who referred to the so-called “firewall” towards the far-right, which has gained some international notoriety after having been criticized recently by US- Vice President J.D. Vance.)

The Enduring Mystery of Trump’s Relationship With Russia

Michael Hirsh

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With Donald Trump threatening to retake the U.S. presidency next week in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, it’s time to take stock of a deeply unsettling fact. After years of investigations by U.S. government bodies from the Justice Department to the FBI to Congress, the American public has no idea if Russian President Vladimir Putin has “something” on Trump—in other words, some compromising information about the would-be 47th president’s past, or what the Russians call kompromat.

Eight years after the FBI first began probing Trump’s Russia connections in mid-2016, national security officials are still puzzled by the former U.S. president’s unrelenting deference to Putin, as well as the enduring mystery of Trump’s decades-old relationship with Russian and former Soviet investors and financiers, some of whom helped save his failing businesses years ago.

American AI Is High on Its Own Supply

Bhaskar Chakravorti

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The most powerful people in the United States are obsessed with spending more on artificial intelligence (AI). Besides Greenland and Gaza, President Donald Trump has signaled that he wants total dominance of the technology. Elon Musk wants OpenAI, a leading player, for himself. And OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is aiming for artificial general intelligence, or AGI, which mimics all human capabilities—and he’s pushing for “exponentially increasing investment” to get there.

Even as a hitherto obscure Chinese lab, DeepSeek, has demonstrated a cost- and energy-efficient approach to AI development, the U.S. tech industry has taken the present situation as its own Sputnik moment. Americans have derived all the wrong lessons: spend even more on AI; trust Chinese technology even less; and reach back to analogies from the 19th-century English coal industry to justify the seemingly unjustifiable 21st-century expenditures in AI.

The AfD Is Now Germany’s Mainstream

Paul Hockenos

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When Germany’s election results were announced on Feb. 23 at the packed headquarters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Berlin, the hall erupted into wild rejoicing. The party’s leadership, among it frontperson Alice Weidel, and hundreds of supporters waving German flags immediately recognized the party’s 21 percent tally as a conspicuous victory—exactly twice its 2021 result—even though the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) won more votes by 8 percentage points, and with this the mandate to form a government.

Despite the fact that Germany’s other parties refuse to govern with it, the AfD—an extremist xenophobic party with ties to neo-Nazis—has definitively broken out of the margins and is positioned squarely at the center of German politics. It is now Germany’s second-strongest party; the largest opposition party in the Bundestag; the favored party of the working class; the no. 1 party in Germany’s eastern states; a darling of the new U.S. administration; and it also boasts representation in the regional legislatures of all but one German state and in the EU parliament, too, where it is buttressed by like-minded allies.

Can the Ukraine War End in 2025? A Realistic Strategy for Peace

Michael O'Hanlon

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After three years of fighting, Russia and Ukraine have established mainly a stalemate, even if the battle is trending slightly in Russia’s favor at present.

Yet Russia is suffering more than 1,000 casualties a day, killed and wounded, and Ukraine perhaps half as many (out of a population only one-fourth as large). Both sides may decide that it is no longer worth sacrificing so much blood and treasure for minimal territorial gains.

President Trump’s return to the White House also changes the conversation, given his emphasis on the importance of ending the fighting soon as America’s top priority in the war (and I believe Trump is correct in this view, provided that Ukraine can remain a sovereign and independent country, even if I disagree with Mr. Trump about the causes of the war and the legitimacy of the Zelensky presidency).

To be sure, the wrong peace deal could embolden Putin to reignite the war somewhere down the road after rearming (if too soft) or permanently poison Russia’s relations with the West and perhaps even increase the odds of war between Russia and NATO (if too harsh) or lead to the overthrow of the Zelensky government in Ukraine and installment of a puppet regime subservient to Moscow (if too impatient/rushed).

America Needs a Sovereign Wealth Fund

Steve Bowsher and Sarah Sewall

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In January 2025, shortly after being inaugurated, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order calling for the creation of a U.S.-owned sovereign wealth fund. An SWF, Trump said, would “promote the long-term financial health and international leadership of the United States” through direct investment in “great national endeavors,” such as manufacturing and medical research. Although unmentioned by the administration, an SWF could also help maintain the United States’ technological superiority over China.

A More Corrupt World Will Be Bad for America

Richard Nephew

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Some years ago, while serving as the U.S. State Department’s first coordinator on global anticorruption, I visited a country in West Africa as part of my fieldwork. During my visit, an American businessman whose company was operating an important national enterprise told me about a government official who had solicited a bribe from him. When I asked how he got out of the situation, he said it was simple: “I told him that I wasn’t going to go to jail for him.”

The Right U.S. Strategy for Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

Thomas Wright

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Ukraine has considerable leverage in upcoming negotiations with Russia—as long as the United States stands by Kyiv and adopts a negotiating strategy that creates real dilemmas for Moscow. U.S. support for Ukraine has been cast into doubt in recent weeks after a flurry of comments by Trump administration officials offering unilateral concessions to Moscow and criticizing Ukraine. Bilateral talks between Russia and the United States in Riyadh have heightened concerns in Ukraine and Europe. But these moves are a choice, not a necessity. A good deal is still within reach if Washington is willing to pursue it.

The Trump administration should enter these negotiations with a clear sense of U.S. interests, a correct diagnosis of the problem to be solved, a preferred ranking of possible outcomes, and a strategy for how to accomplish its objective. If it does that, it can secure a free and independent Ukraine with the ability to defend itself and deter future attack. If the United States fails to help Ukraine exploit the advantage it has on the eve of talks, it will give Moscow a lifeline, which it will not just use in its quest to dominate Ukraine but also to damage U.S. interests globally.

In Pentagon shakeup, some see bid for more secret actions, less oversight

PATRICK TUCKER

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The selection of John Daniel Caine as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff may signal a new emphasis on irregular warfare, covert and clandestine operations, enabling swifter action with fewer legal constraints and less congressional scrutiny, say former military and senior defense officials who have worked in the intelligence community, special operations, the Defense Department, and the White House.

The nomination of Caine—a retired Air Force lieutenant general—and the early dismissal of Gen. CQ Brown were part of an unprecedented purge announced on Friday by President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who also announced their intent to replace Adm. Lisa Franchetti, chief of naval operations; and the judge advocates general—essentially the top lawyers—of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. Hegseth was also reported to have fired his senior military assistant, Lt. Gen. Jennifer Short.

“General Caine is an accomplished pilot, national security expert, successful entrepreneur, and a ‘warfighter’ with significant interagency and special operations experience,” Trump said in Friday post announcing the moves.

How to inoculate yourself (and others) against viral misinformation

Sara Goudarzi

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In 2020, as COVID-19 began to spread around the globe, theories surrounding the pandemic also started to circulate. One such supposition—as absurd as it might seem—was the idea that there was a correlation between 5G cellular telephone towers and the increased number of infections. This utterly false idea began to trend on social media and spread through messaging apps. Thousands, including celebrities and politicians, circulated this complete falsehood, leading to the burning of dozens of wireless communication towers in Europe. Although misinformation isn’t new, the rate with which it spreads is unprecedented, much as biological pathogens now travel much more quickly than in the past via today’s high-speed transportation systems.

But what if there was a way to protect people against misinformation viruses? Sander van der Linden, professor of social psychology at the University of Cambridge and director of the Cambridge Social Decision-Making Lab, wrote the book FOOLPROOF: Why Misinformation Infects Our Minds and How to Build Immunity; in it, he explains that there are ways to build immunity against falsehoods, much as vaccines that protect against pathogens.

Donald Trump is a reckless president, but not yet a lawless one

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All American presidents eventually arrive at the realisation that they ought to have more power. But most do at least accept that Congress and the courts should play some part in governing the country. Donald Trump, however, seems to see Article II of the constitution, which lays out the president’s powers, as a blank cheque. He has a tendency to explain to friendly audiences, “I have the right to do whatever I want as president.” This week on social media, in much the same vein, he pooh-poohed pedantic legal constraints on his actions: “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.”

Donald Trump: the would-be king

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IN HIS FIRST whirlwind month in office, Donald Trump has made his base exultant and left his opponents reeling. With his blitzkrieg, Mr Trump is trying to turn the presidency into the dominant branch of government. The question is how far his campaign goes before he is checked—if he is checked—and where it will leave the republic.

The Battlefield of the 21st Century

Arlind Sadiku

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Around the world, nations are pouring billions into military defense, acquiring advanced fighter jets, naval warships, and missile defense systems. However, while these assets strengthen traditional military power, they do little to protect against one of the most immediate and destructive threats of the modern era: cyber warfare.

In today's interconnected world, a cyberattack can be as devastating as a conventional military assault, if not worse. A single, well-coordinated cyber strike could shut down national power grids, paralyze banking systems, disable critical communications, and disrupt emergency services—all without a single bullet being fired. Yet, despite these growing threats, most governments continue to focus their defense spending on physical military assets while neglecting the digital battlefield.

Cyber warfare is no longer just a supplementary tool of conflict—it is a primary weapon. The modern battlefield is shifting from physical confrontations to digital sabotage, and nations must rethink their defense strategies before they find themselves vulnerable to a devastating attack.

Drones are the next chapter in US-India’s defense partnership

LAUREN C. WILLIAMS

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The U.S. and India are launching a new alliance for autonomous systems, which builds on bipartisan groundwork laid by previous administrations and could be a stabilizing force for the democracies’ future tech exchanges.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi joined President Donald Trump in Washington on Feb. 13 to discuss tariffs, technology, and energy and defense initiatives.

The new Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance builds on existing bilateral defense agreements and framework between India and the U.S., with the goal of increasing production of AI-driven autonomous systems in the Indo-Pacific region, according to a joint India-U.S. statement.

“America plays an important role in India's defense preparedness. As strategic and trusted partners, we are moving forward actively towards joint development, joint production, and transfer of technology. In the times to come as well, new technologies and equipment will enhance our capacities,” Modi said during a joint press conference at the White House during his most recent visit.

The USAID Suspension: A Critical Blow To Bangladesh? – OpEd

Anik Dey

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The recent suspension of USAID funding globally has shocked the world. As a recipient, Bangladesh has experienced shockwaves in the country’s development sector.

This move, initiated by an executive order from U.S. President Donald Trump, not only affects ongoing projects but also poses significant challenges for the future of humanitarian and development initiatives in Bangladesh. As a major recipient of U.S. foreign assistance, ranking as the 20th largest globally with $550 million received in 2023, this sudden halt is particularly concerning for the country’s financial and social development. It has already faced a shock as many USAID contractors including NGOs and for-profit consultancy firms have left with no option but to lay off until the review process is completed.

Immediate Consequences on NGOs and Development Sector

The immediate impact on both the NGO sector and broader development assistance efforts is stark. Over 100 projects valued at approximately $550 million were suspended immediately following Trump’s executive order; upon receiving instructions from the local USAID office. This abrupt cessation has led to job losses among employees working on these projects, with many NGOs and consultancy firms forced to terminate contracts with employees who were on probationary periods without pay.

Getting Ready For Tomorrow’s Myanmar – Analysis

Nicholas Farrelly

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Myanmar’s top generals have had another bad year. Under relentless attack, their subordinates have surrendered regional military command headquarters, draconian conscription regulations were introduced to bolster the dwindling rank-and-file, and in the north, east and west, rebel armies are strangling access to valuable resources.

Old certainties on the battlefields have been overturned by the proliferation of armed groups, including nimble guerrilla squads in central Myanmar and the widespread use, by all sides, of new combat technologies, including drones.

The economy, under these conditions, is spluttering — with the national currency, the kyat, now worth only a quarter of its pre-COVID-19 value.

Regime officials have imposed price controls on essentials like rice, cooking oil, eggs, fish and meat. Even middle-class families struggle to survive, and flows of desperate migrants are continuing to flee to Thailand and Malaysia.

The junta is also clamping down in the digital sphere, limiting access to information and networks through the Internet. The top generals’ devastating misjudgement of the public mood in early 2021 means monitoring and coercing the population is a bigger job than ever.

Threat Perception in International Relations: The Neglected Dimension of Leaders’ On-Going Experience

Eitan Oren

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For a week after a massive earthquake hit northeastern Japan on March 11, 2011, the Japanese Prime Minister Kan Naoto slept in his office. As he was trying to close his eyes, images of the devastating tsunami and the escalating nuclear accident raced through his mind. Over the next days, as nuclear meltdown fears mounted and the potential for mass casualties loomed, Kan began to contemplate evacuating the entire Tokyo metropolitan area including the Imperial Palace and state institutions. Despite the palpable sense of danger, or perhaps because of it, he kept this apocalyptic scenario for himself. “This situation was so grave I felt I had to use the utmost discretion when putting it into words,” he wrote in his memoir “My Nuclear Nightmare: Leading Japan through the Fukushima Disaster to a Nuclear-Free Future” (2017).

Kan’s recollections of the aftermath of the triple disasters contain a few visceral descriptions of the dangers he felt during those dramatic days. And like other leaders who faced grave danger before, his subjective account of what it felt like to experience danger is helpful in gaining a crucial perspective on leaders, threat perception, and international relations. Over the past years, I examined many such ‘danger-descriptions’ given by leaders embedded in different cultures and contexts.

Strategic Imperatives in the U.S.-China Technology Race: Power, Hardware, and Engineering Expertise

Ismael Arciniegas Rueda

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The escalating technology competition between the United States and China is reshaping global dynamics. As artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a critical frontier of this competition, the U.S. must strategically enhance its infrastructure to maintain technological leadership. Three interconnected policy areas—power grid enhancement, hardware innovation, and infrastructure expertise—are key components of a comprehensive plan to secure strategic advantage for the United States.

Revitalizing the U.S. power grid is critical to unlocking sustainable support for energy-intensive technologies. To do this, the U.S. will need to improve its access to needed hardware and develop the kind of infrastructure expertise China has been amassing in recent years.

The U.S. power grid is old, with at least 70% of transmission lines over 25 years old, and in need of large investments to maintain reliability standards. The grid is currently operating at capacity, with the demands of frontier technologies like AI exacerbating congestion issues. Reports indicate that grid congestion is already impeding technological advancement and the future development and adoption of AI could significantly increase energy needs, despite gains in energy consumption efficiency.

Power grid revitalization rests on sourcing key hardware domestically. Developing local manufacturing options hinges on a number of factors including raw material availability, capital mobilization for increased manufacturing and a dynamic local value chain, to name a few. There are already concerns about the sourcing of critical elements, such as power grid transformers.

China Advances To Second Place In Global Soft Power Ranking – OpEd

Lim Teck Ghee

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China has overtaken the UK to secure 2nd place globally, advancing one position from the previous year … in the Global Soft Power Index 2025.

The latest report of the Global Soft Power Index for 2025 by influential brand valuation consultancy, Brand Finance, highlights the remarkable progress of China in its index ranking the extent of power and influence in world politics and international relations wielded by countries of the world. It now sits at second place behind the US which, although ranking first, has seen its soft power standing undermined by global concerns of its political stability, reputation and governance.

The Global Soft Power Index report is based primarily on key indicators in economics and business. It also measures attributes related to culture and heritage, media and communication, education and science and sustainability. These together are increasingly seen as the other more influential and effective side of the power coin as compared with the flip side of hard power associated with military power and intervention, coercive diplomacy and economic sanction.

DeepSeek Reflects Both the Success and Failure of US Tech Containment Against China

Zhipei Chi

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In recent years, the United States has significantly expanded its use of export controls to contain China’s rise and maintain its own technological dominance. At the center of this tech containment are restrictions on the export of advanced semiconductors, which is explicitly aimed at “maintaining as large of a lead as possible” for the U.S. over China in artificial intelligence (AI). The Biden administration launched several rounds of comprehensive controls over China’s access to advanced AI chips, manufacturing equipment, software, and talent. The underlying rationale is straightforward: by denying access to advanced U.S. chips and the hardware and software China would need to develop its own, the United States can “choke off China’s access to the future of AI.”

This strategy initially appeared effective, with OpenAI and other leading U.S. companies maintaining a comfortable edge over their Chinese counterparts. Then came DeepSeek and its latest V3 and R1 models. They appear to have closed the performance gap with leading U.S. models, challenging the idea of a U.S. monopoly over advanced AI models. DeepSeek has thus sparked intense debate about the tech containment policy’s effectiveness. While AI leaders such as Dario Amodei and Miles Brundage quickly argued that DeepSeek’s success did not represent a failure of export controls but rather evidence that restrictions should be strengthened, the development has raised serious questions about the long-term viability of such policies.

China’s AI Breakthrough Signals a New Era of Tech Innovation

Grace Shao

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Amid discussions of multipolarity at the Munich Security Conference and calls for collaboration in artificial intelligence (AI) safety by Chinese leaders at the Paris AI Summit, tech firms and investors in China saw a volatile yet promising week in AI innovation. Both domestically, with Xi’s symposium with China’s top tech leaders, and internationally, China’s most senior leadership is taking a stance that they embrace AI and tech development and are open to global collaboration.

Chinese A share and ADRs responded with a rally this past week, largely driven by the confidence seen at these events and the news of governmental support for AI and big tech. This was coupled with strong signals from Chinese leadership encouraging entrepreneurship and technological advancement.

At the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi invoked a metaphor from Jin Yong’s martial arts novel “The Heaven Sword and Dragon Sabre”: “Let the strong do as they will; we remain as unperturbed as the gentle breeze caresses the hills. Let the fears act as they may; we maintain our poise as the bright moon illuminates the river.”

China Orders Military Changes To Prepare for 'Engaging in Warfare'

Mandy Taheri

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Chinese President Xi Jinping has approved military reforms aimed at boosting combat readiness and preparing the armed forces for "engaging in warfare," set to take effect this spring, according to the Chinese government's website.

A U.S. Department of State spokesperson told Newsweek that "we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means."

Why It Matters

Tensions between the United States and China remain high over issues ranging from trade tariffs to military activity in the South China Sea, particularly with a focus on Taiwan.

Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory—a claim the self-governing island rejects. Although Washington does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taipei, the U.S. remains Taiwan's largest supplier of foreign arms.

Xi has said that "reunification" with Taiwan is a national goal and has warned it may require the use of force.

What To Know

Xi, who serves as chairman of the Central Military Commission overseeing China's military, signed orders on regulations governing "the military's interior order, code of conduct and military formation" on Friday, the government said.

China’s Growing Role in Central Asia

Akanksha Meena

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In response to its recent retaliatory tariffs on US energy imports, a delegation of major Chinese energy firms visited Kazakhstan in February 2025 to explore new trade opportunities. It was led by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), which focused on diversifying supply chains and reducing dependence on western markets. The visit highlights Beijing’s commitment to deepening economic ties in Central Asia through trade, infrastructure investment, and energy cooperation amidst the escalating tensions between China and the West. Traditionally, Russia exerted a dominant influence in Central Asian countries due to its Soviet-era legacy and security ties. However, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and expanding economic partnerships with Central Asian nations have established Beijing as a key player in the region. As US presence has diminished, and Russia remains preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine, China has leveraged economic partnerships, infrastructure projects, and strategic diplomacy.