C. Raja Mohan
India’s fast-growing economy and expanding comprehensive national power make it more than a middle power; in fact, it has the potential to be a great power, albeit one facing significant constraints. As of early 2025, India’s aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) stands at just under $4 trillion in U.S. dollars and is growing at around 6% to 7% annually. It is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of the decade, but its low per capita GDP, at about $2,900, ranks 141st among about 190 countries. The vast divergence between India’s aggregate strength and per capita income is a result of its massive population of roughly 1.5 billion people. India’s challenges of nation-building are real and unlikely to disappear any time soon. Still, in global politics, aggregate size does matter, and it gives India a growing international salience. The strategic challenge for Delhi lies in leveraging its size to accelerate prosperity for its citizens amid intensifying competition between the world’s great powers.
Perceptions of India, both at home and abroad, began to change at the turn of the century as the country’s economic underperformance in the second half of the 20th century yielded higher growth rates generated by market reforms initiated in the early 1990s. The idea of India as a “developing” or “third-world” nation has given way to an image of a “rising India” that will inevitably take its “natural place” at the global high table. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has set itself an ambitious goal to become a “developed nation” by 2047 — the centennial year of India’s independence.1 Reaching a per capita income of $12,000 to $15,000 (the lower threshold for developed status) by 2047 will be a demanding job,2 given the objective constraints India faces. These include the unfinished tasks of nation-building, a federal polity, a political class wedded to welfarism, and entrenched resistance to economic reform. Still, the country’s aspiration and commitment to its goal are likely to drive continuing growth and reinforce India’s upward trajectory in the international system, even if change comes at a measured pace.
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