Andrew Rolander
The fusion of legitimate state power and organized criminal activity in the maritime domain creates a potent blend of hybrid threat activity and irregular warfare challenges that is as dangerous for those targeted as it is deniable for those who undertake it. In the liminal space between war and peace, these activities challenge the rules-based international system in ways engineered to erode trust in institutions and sow confusion among targeted nations. The criminal nature of the activity exploits loopholes in legal prosecution. The criminal nature of the activity deliberately exploits loopholes in maritime legal frameworks, effectively preventing definitive attribution of illegal activity to a state actor. This operational methodology insulates the government behind the activity from any diplomatic, legal, or military response, making existing national and international deterrence and response mechanisms paralyzed and inadequate.
Criminal activities like these, especially in the maritime domain, mask far more malign intentions to intentionally destabilize with paramilitary activity. The recent Eagle S incident in the Baltic Sea that involved a vessel suspected of having ties to Russia’s Shadow Fleet and maritime sabotage activity provides a real-world example of this convergence, highlighting the legal and attributional challenges faced by nations seeking to defend the rule of law and maritime security. Beyond the specific circumstances of the Eagle S incident, the case raises unique questions about the vulnerability of critical maritime infrastructure, the effectiveness of existing legal mechanisms, and the broader strategic implications for NATO of Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic Sea region.
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