John Reid
The Lesson-Learned from Ukraine
As the war in Ukraine moves towards a potential negotiated settlement, the next step for military and policy leaders is to catalogue “lessons learned,” with an eye towards competition with China. There is already no shortage of published “lessons learned” from the conflict, and they are predictable: drones are the future, the battlefield is transparent, and the grey zone is where conflict is won or lost. Missing from the discussion is the most important and overlooked lesson learned for the United States (“U.S.”) after being caught surprised by Russia’s unprovoked invasion: strategy needs a comeback. Indeed, the shortcomings of prior U.S. strategy in Ukraine must be utilized as a charrette to engage in better competition with China.
It is too soon to judge President Trump’s efforts towards peace in Ukraine (indeed, the terms are presently being negotiated). But for the prior administration, the war in Ukraine laid bare U.S. strategic shortcomings and offers invaluable lessons for the next conflict. As the U.S. drafts a new National Security Strategy and plots the best course of action towards China in the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine serves as an invaluable strategy exercise. For U.S. strategists, the Ukraine conflict demonstrates three vital needs: 1) the need to understand strategy as distinct from political aims; 2) an appreciation of how human nature drives conflict; and 3) a better understanding of an opponent’s center of gravity. Each of these lessons from Ukraine are fundamentals of strategy. But in a world of liberal democratic theory, it is easy to lose sight of essential strategy truisms.
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