The Armed Conflict Survey 2025 reveals escalating global violence, fractured geopolitics and worsening humanitarian crises. Trump’s 2025 return to office intensified great-power tensions and further weakened multilateralism. Conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar persisted, with the new Israel–Iran war flashpoint emerging and global violent-event fatalities rising 23% to nearly 240,000.
The Armed Conflict Survey 2025 captures an increasingly complex world marked by persistent and protracted conflicts, deepening geopolitical divisions, weakening global governance structures and escalating humanitarian needs. The return of United States President Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025 has amplified ongoing trends in great-power rivalry while further eroding multilateral economic and trade norms and introducing greater unpredictability in US foreign policy – particularly regarding its commitment to upholding the rules-based international order, whose relevance and legitimacy have been called into question of late.
The number of active armed conflicts worldwide, and their average duration, remain among the highest in decades.1 The reporting period (1 July 2024–30 June 2025) of The Armed Conflict Survey 2025 saw little to no progress in achieving durable peace in Gaza, Myanmar, Sudan or Ukraine – arguably the most defining conflicts of recent decades in terms of geopolitical significance and human impact. The repercussions of the Israel–Hamas war have only intensified, both regionally and internationally, as illustrated by the brief Israel–Iran war in June 2025, which also featured direct military intervention by the US. Organised violence and crime have remained rife globally, particularly in the Americas. Nowhere is this more evident than in Haiti, where armed gangs have effectively taken control of large parts of the country, further eroding what remained of state authority.
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