10 December 2025

The Limits of U.S. Export Controls on China

Daniel Bob

In an era defined by a Trump trade regime marked by the highest tariffs in decades—and the greatest policy volatility in modern history—the Supreme Court is poised to rule on the legality of those tariffs. That decision will shape the future of American trade authority. It also presents an opportunity to take a broader, overdue look at U.S. trade policy as a whole. Any such reassessment must include a clear-eyed evaluation of export controls, which now span the globe but fall most heavily on China. Beijing’s technological, industrial, and military progress—combined with its expanding economic weight—poses the most comprehensive challenge to U.S. power since the United States emerged from World War II as the dominant global actor.

Washington’s reflexive answer to China’s rise has been export controls targeting chips, software, next-generation tools, and other cutting-edge technologies that underpin U.S. strategic and economic advantages. The impulse is understandable: safeguarding technological leadership is central to both national security and long-term prosperity. Yet instinct is not strategy. Broad, blunt restrictions on U.S. firms selling to China risk imposing costs that exceed their benefits. A more calibrated and adaptive approach is needed—one that protects critical advantages without undermining the innovative ecosystem on which American power ultimately depends.

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