Thomas Graham
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the United States has lacked a coherent Russia policy. Until that moment, Washington had pursued two distinct approaches over the previous eight decades. Containment – countering the threat Soviet expansionism posed to the existing world order – defined US Cold War strategy. Integration – ushering Russia into the Euro-Atlantic community of free-market democracies as a strategic partner – was the stated goal from the end of the Cold War until Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014. Containment was a historic success: the Cold War ended largely on US terms. Integration failed badly. Russia grew more authoritarian and increasingly hostile to US interests across the globe.
During the past decade, relations have only continued to deteriorate. Administrations have spoken of relations in different terms, but none has formulated an enduring framework. President Barack Obama abruptly abandoned integration as an immediate goal but offered nothing in its place. President Donald Trump advocated engagement, although his administration actively countered Russian revisionism. President Joe Biden, in response to Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine in 2022, settled on ‘integrated deterrence’ Trump has now returned to office with hopes of normalising relations with Russia, but he has given no clear indication of what that would entail.
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