Gregory V. Raymond
As strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region intensifies, some region-watchers are attracted to the idea of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) playing a more central role in reducing tensions, preventing escalation, and resolving disputes peacefully. When two ASEAN member states are unable to resolve border tensions without resorting to the use of force, however, the credibility of that proposition falls into doubt.
Regrettably, over the course of 2025, Thailand and Cambodia saw an old border dispute reignite with little warning and escalate rapidly to the use of heavy weaponry and airpower across their shared 800-kilometer border, inflicting civilian casualties and displacing hundreds of thousands. While the days of active military fighting were relatively few—and the level of casualties well beneath the toll of 1,000 fatalities that many scholars use to define war1 —the militarized dispute was unexpected and unwelcome.
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