Jacob Stoil
There are three strategic rationales for seizing one or more islands, along with critical risks in the tactical and narrative spaces that warrant substantial consideration. The first reason for seizing one or more islands is to influence Iran toward ceasefire negotiations or to trade for concessions during negotiations. In such a case, the ideal territory to seize would be relatively easy to take and hold and valuable to Iran.
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz provides a second rationale. The positions of the islands mean that whoever controls the islands around the strait can interdict anyone attempting to close or cross through the strait. Iran uses several island positions to reinforce its defensive and blocking positions around the strait. It does this by positioning military systems (such as small boats and weapons systems integral to closing the straits), together with garrisons and surveillance and targeting systems on some of the islands astride and proximate to the shipping routes.
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