Indian Strategic Studies: 05/10/26

10 May 2026

TTP and the Escalating Islamabad-Kabul Security Crisis

Rahim Nasar

The Afghan Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 has led to the resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which presents a growing threat as a strong militant force along Pakistan’s western border.

Pakistan has launched aerial strikes against alleged TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan—a shift from its traditional counterinsurgency practices—in response to the group’s more frequent cross-border attacks. The Afghan Taliban’s persistent denial of TTP’s presence and refusal to take counter-measures has exposed a deeper ideological alignment between the Afghan Taliban and TTP. Current tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are no longer limited to militancy but are evolving into a structured inter-state conflict.

Mali Is the Linchpin of West Africa—Now It’s Under Jihadist Siege

Ebenezer Obadare

Thousands of armed fighters belonging to the al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and ethnic Tuareg separatists under the umbrella of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched coordinated attacks on multiple cities in Mali on Saturday, April 25. They targeted Bamako, the capital, as well as Gao, Kidal, Mopti, and Sevare—all sites of major military bases in the northern and central regions of the beleaguered country. If the military government of Assimi Goïta has gotten used to sporadic attacks by JNIM militants—who have effectively imposed a fuel blockade on Bamako for the better part of a year—it seems to have been caught off guard by the alliance between JNIM and FLA, and by their rare decision to target several cities simultaneously.

From the standpoint of the emergency allies, the attacks were a success, as they managed to kill Malian Defense Minister Sadio Camara at his residence in Kati, a garrison town eleven miles from Bamako.

China Bulletin

Weak consumption: China has repeatedly pledged to rebalance its economy toward consumer spending but has not followed through. Retail sales growth bottomed out in December 2025 (0.9 percent year-on-year), then rose slightly to 2.8 percent in early 2026 before slowing again in March to 1.7 percent.1 A 9.1 percent drop in auto sales for Q1 dragged down retail spending for the quarter.2

In an effort to stabilize prices, Beijing had subsidized trade-ins of cheaper models in favor of higher-end models.3 Beijing’s “anti-involution” action led to an excess supply of lower-priced cars, fueling exports—China’s passenger car exports rose 60.6 percent year-on-year in Q1. declining 2.2 percent in all of 2025.7 The sharp increase was driven partly by NBS adding power investment into the figure, which had previously been tracked separately by the National Energy Administration.8

State-Driven Nuclear Expansion is Winning Energy Race

Christopher Nye

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) now commands the world’s largest overall nuclear construction pipeline, placing Beijing on a credible path to surpass the United States in operable nuclear capacity before 2030. Policy continuity—including the 2024 Energy Law, the 2025 Atomic Energy Law, the 14th and 15th five-year plans, and State Council approval—has allowed the PRC to mitigate the “cost escalation curse” that has haunted Western nuclear projects.

A lower cost of capital for state-owned developers, combining record-low sovereign bond yields, staged value-added tax rebates, a centralized “spent fuel” fund, and long-term power purchase agreements, has also helped support the sector’s growth.

China unveils new naval defence systems as drones change nature of war at sea

Liu Zhen

The Chinese navy has unveiled a new anti-drone air defence system, according to state broadcaster CCTV. Drones have fundamentally transformed naval warfare in recent years and emerged as a significant threat to modern warships in conflicts such as Russia’s war against Ukraine and the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

The CCTV report on Monday said a “finalisation test” – which certifies that a weapon system’s design meets all operational requirements – had been successfully carried out in the Bohai Sea. In effect, this means that it has been given the official green light for mass production and deployment. During the test, the system intercepted multiple drones conducting “high-difficulty” ultra-low-altitude and stealth attacks in a “realistic” combat simulation, the report said.

Can China Curb Trump’s Gambit In Hormuz? – OpEd

M.K. Bhadrakumar

China’s shock warning to the US President Donald Trump that his road to Beijing goes through the Strait of Hormuz has been an audacious move directly linking his planned visit to China on May 14-15 with the situation around Iran.

It is more than coincidental that China’s whiplash in the form of a special press conference to mark the commencement of China’s presidency of the Security Council on May 1 at the UN by its special representative Ambassador Fu Cong came hot on the heels of Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoning Trump on April 28 to warn him that “if the United States and Israel resume military action, this would inevitably lead to extremely adverse consequences not only for Iran and its neighbours, but for the entire international community… a ground operation on Iranian territory would be particularly unacceptable and dangerous.”

U.S. Army’s Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF): America’s New Counter To China And Russia’s A2/AD Threats – Analysis

Andrew Feickert and Ebrima M’Bai

Congress has expressed concern about the threat to U.S. national security posed by Russia and China. The Army believes to address this threat, it must be able to operate in a multi-domain (air, land, water, space, cyber, information) environment, requiring new operational concepts, technologies, weapons, and units. The Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF) is the Army’s self-described “organization centerpiece” of this effort.

What Is a Multi-Domain Task Force?

The Army’s Chief of Staff Paper #1: Army Multi-Domain Transformation Ready to Win in Competition and Conflict dated March 16, 2021, describes the MDTF as “theater-level maneuver elements designed to synchronize precision effects and precision fires in all domains against adversary anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) networks in all domains, enabling joint forces to execute their operational plan (OPLAN)-directed roles.”

The Caspian Sea’s Role in the Iran War

Arjun Singh

Since the outbreak of the Iran War, most international attention has focused on the Persian Gulf, specifically the Strait of Hormuz, through which, in normal times, nearly 25 percent of the world’s oil and 20 percent of the world’s natural gas flow. The double Iranian and US naval blockade has choked maritime traffic and precipitated a global energy crisis.

Yet, the gulf and its strait are not the only bodies of water that war has placed in jeopardy. On its northern edge, Iran borders the Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water. At 143,000 square miles, it’s as large as the Black Sea in Europe, and along its coast, it hosts the regional powers of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan. Maritime trade and oil pipelines have, for years, crossed the Caspian between Europe and Asia, making it a prime venue for commerce.

Innovation and the Energy Crisis

David M. Hart

The energy landscape is being radically reshaped by war in the Middle East. Spiking prices are prompting emergency measures in much of the world. They should also reinvigorate energy innovation policy. Accelerated innovation is vital to softening or averting future crises, but countries are not all prioritizing innovation to the same degree or in the same way. That is why CFR’s Climate Realism Initiative has launched a new, interactive Global Energy Innovation Index.

The largest energy supply shock in history is still unfolding. Petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have risen significantly since February 28, and many analysts expect them to continue to climb. Fuel shortages in some countries have led to rationing, shutting schools and workplaces.

MBZ Bought a Missile Shield

Sixty-seven days into a regional war that has kept the Strait of Hormuz functionally closed and placed Israeli troops on Arab soil for the first time in history, Iran has not struck Saudi Arabia in

Two Wars Later, Iran’s Nuclear Question Is Still on the Table

Jane Darby Menton and Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar

The Middle East Program in Washington combines in-depth regional knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to provide deeply informed recommendations. With expertise in the Gulf, North Africa, Iran, and Israel/Palestine, we examine crosscutting themes of political, economic, and social change in both English and Arabic.

The Nuclear Policy Program aims to reduce the risk of nuclear war. Our experts diagnose acute risks stemming from technical and geopolitical developments, generate pragmatic solutions, and use our global network to advance risk-reduction policies. Our work covers deterrence, disarmament, arms control, nonproliferation, and nuclear energy

Bowen: Strait of Hormuz standoff raises risk of sliding back into all-out war

Jeremy Bowen

The ceasefire in the Gulf is four weeks old and showing its age. The US and Iran's determination to keep the pressure on each other has put it in serious jeopardy. This is a dangerous moment.

The ceasefire opened up a chance for diplomacy that looked for a short time as if it might make progress. Americans and Iranians faced each other across a conference table in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, but came away empty-handed.

The Pakistanis are trying to revive the process, without much success so far. Both America and Iran want to have a deal. But they have different deals in mind and are sticking to their red lines. Until one or the other, or preferably both, decide to offer concessions, renewed full-scale hostilities remain an incident away.

The Iran–U.S./Israel Conflict One Month After Its Outbreak: The Logic Of Controlled Escalation And Systemic Risk – Analysis

General (Rtd) Corneliu

The conflict between Iran, on the one hand, and the U.S.–Israel axis, on the other, has roots that go far deeper than the current military confrontation. In U.S.–Iran relations, the structural rupture begins with the historical resentment linked to the 1953 coup against Mohammad Mosaddegh, continues with the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, and deepens through a combination of sanctions, regional competition, and the nuclear file.

In parallel, Iran–Israel relations have evolved from indirect rivalry to open strategic hostility, particularly through the expansion of Iran’s “axis of resistance”—Hezbollah, Shiite militias, and the Houthis—and through Israel’s perception that a near-nuclear Iran would represent an existential threat. The 2015 nuclear agreement temporarily halted the escalation spiral, but the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and the killing of Qassem Soleimani in 2020 pushed the conflict back toward a logic of force.

Where Are U.S. Military Forces Deployed in Europe?

Molly Carlough

Where are U.S. bases and troops situated in Europe?

U.S. forces have been stationed in Europe since the end of World War II. Troop numbers have fluctuated over the decades, reaching a high of roughly 475,000 active-duty personnel in the late 1950s, when the U.S. military served as a bulwark against Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces at the height of the Cold War. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, those numbers dropped to the tens of thousands.

As of April 2025, the United States had roughly eighty thousand [PDF] U.S. service members stationed in Europe, according to the United States European Command (EUCOM). The total amount varies due to planned exercises and regular rotations of troops in and out of the continent. For example, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, some twenty thousand additional U.S. soldiers were deployed to states neighboring Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. Over the course of the war, the total number of troops has ranged between approximately 75,000 and 105,000 military personnel, primarily from the Air Force, Army, and Navy.

Europeans Are Quiet Quitting the United States

Rym Momtaz

Strategic Europe offers insightful analysis, fresh commentary, and concrete policy recommendations from some of Europe’s keenest international affairs observers. Behind the scenes of the genuflection and obsequiousness that has dominated European interactions with U.S. President Donald Trump since January 2025, an increasing number of leaders have been quietly making long-term shifts.

In tech, space, and defense in particular—arguably the most strategic fields—Europeans are increasingly weighing their historic reflex to buy American against the cost associated with the tempestuousness of the United States.

The Tragic Decline of the American Navy

Robert D. Kaplan

Alfred Thayer Mahan, a 19th-century naval officer and pre-eminent military strategist, believed his young country was destined to be great because of its Navy. Toward the end of his service, Mahan, then a U.S. Navy captain, wrote a landmark book about the age of sailing ships. Read avidly by kings, prime ministers and presidents — including Theodore Roosevelt, Kaiser Wilhelm II and the young Winston Churchill — the book posited the idea of a free world anchored by American sea power.

Mahan believed America needed a large number of ships to fight decisive battles and to keep sea lanes open and international commerce flowing. This vision, which was both humanitarian and self-serving, soon came to pass, starting with the Spanish-American War of 1898, which Mahan avidly supported. After World War II, the U.S. Navy possessed some 7,000 vessels that went on to dominate the oceans for the next half century. The United States, with its blessed geography fronting two oceans, had embarked upon its imperial destiny, with the naval power to back up its values.

Defining Cognitive Warfare: A NDAA Mandate Response

Bonnie Rushing, Dr. Shouhuai Xu, Dr. William "Ox" Hersch

The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act directs the Department of War to define cognitive warfare and distinguish it from existing information-related activities. This article responds directly to that mandate, proposing a decision-centric definition of cognitive warfare, delineating it from information operations, psychological operations, and influence activities across seven dimensions. The definition is illustrated through a notional case study and validated against observed Russian and Chinese cognitive warfare operations in the Baltic states and Taiwan.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the US Air Force, Department of War, or the US Government.”

The Return of Japanese Hard Power

Matthew Finkel

Japan’s long-dormant defense industry is finally waking up. Constrained by a constitution imposed by the Allied military occupation after World War II, Japan has for decades adhered to a pacifist security policy. It technically maintains no military (although its Self-Defense Forces are more formidable than many foreign militaries), and until last month, the government had forbidden the export of lethal weaponry. Cultural attitudes have reinforced Japan’s pacifism: Japanese citizens have historically derided hawkish politicians and defense firms as “merchants of death.”

These constraints on defense production have taken their toll.

Trump Is Pulling Troops From Germany. The Missiles Are a Bigger Problem.

Liana Fix

President Donald Trump’s recent announcement that the United States would withdraw five thousand troops from Germany—with the threat of “cutting” more from U.S. bases across Europe—has taken U.S. allies by surprise. The decision seems to be driven less by strategic calculations about burden-shifting within NATO and more by a desire to punish Europeans for their criticism of and limited support for the Iran war.

While this move does not appear to threaten the minimum number of seventy-six thousand troops that Congress has mandated to be stationed in Europe, it does add to a list of issues that have lasting consequences for European security. This includes depleted U.S. stockpiles due to the Iran war and delayed arms deliveries to Europe, but the possible cancellation of Tomahawk cruise missiles that were planned to be stationed in Germany in 2027 is of particular concern.

An All-American Retort To Israel’s Bombing Of Lebanon – OpEd

James Bovard

Israel’s bombing of Lebanon has reportedly killed more than a thousand civilians this year. Israel also drove out more than a half million civilians from southern Lebanon as part of an effort to confiscate or ravage that territory. The New York Times reports that Israel is “applying the Gaza model in Lebanon,” destroying entire towns and villages and leaving the rubble uninhabitable. Israel’s bombing has been so indiscriminate that even President Trump pretended to object. On Truth Social, Trump announced: “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”

Trump’s assertion had as much effect as his boasts about how he already won the war against Iran. The Israeli military continues assailing Lebanon and Trump’s attention long since wandered back to his ballroom. The latest attacks are reminiscent of Israel’s 2006 invasion of Lebanon, which also killed roughly a thousand civilians, as well as a few hundred Hezbollah fighters. With the Bush White House cheerleading all the way, Israel assailed Lebanon in response to Hezbollah’s seizure of two Israeli soldiers.

Germany’s military power is on the rise. This time it must be firmly embedded in Europe

Timothy Garton Ash

As we mark the 81st anniversary of the end of the second world war in Europe this Friday, 8 May, it’s clear that Germany will again be the leading European military power.

Already next year its defence spending will be as much as that of France and Britain combined – and it is projected to be significantly larger by 2030. The German government’s declared goal is to have the strongest conventional army in Europe. True, France and Britain have nuclear weapons, but that means less money to spend on the rest of defence. So the question is not, will this happen? Barring unforeseen developments, it will. The question, particularly on this solemn anniversary, is: how can we ensure that this time the growth of German military power is a positive development for all of Europe?

When drones dominate the battlefield, distance no longer matters - opinion

BRIG.-GEN.(RET.) ZVIKA HAIMOVITCH

The modern battlefield is transforming. New operational concepts are emerging, additional domains such as the digital and cyber spheres are expanding in scope and intensity, and advanced technologies are reshaping capabilities and achievements. Among all these shifts, the air domain is experiencing the most profound evolution. Its rapid technological and conceptual changes are creating far‑reaching implications for the modern battlefield.

The evolving air domain is also reshaping the very geometry of conflict. Long‑range strike capabilities have dramatically reduced the traditional importance of geography; a threat originating 2,000 kilometers away (such as in Iran) can now be as immediate and actionable as one positioned just beyond the border.

How to Lose an Information War in 10 Days

Benjamin Jensen, Nico Vacca, and Jose M. Macias III

We live in a surreal world in which battlefield success does not necessarily translate into an information advantage. Belief is suspended from reality largely because most of us spend hours of our waking lives bombarded by images, memes, and ephemeral social media content that is both tailored and increasingly augmented by AI. For every official press conference, no matter how masterful or awkward, viral pop culture pastiches blitz the senses. Homo economicus succumbs to giggles, fear, dopamine, and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD).

Look no further than the war with Iran. The United States and Israel achieved unparalleled success on the battlefield, sinking large portions of Iranian naval capability and setting back its ballistic missile and nuclear program by years, if not decades. Yet, Iran counterattacked as much online as it did with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones. While U.S. leaders struggled to make a compelling case for the war, Iranian-linked accounts flooded social media with deepfakes, false claims of battlefield success, and narratives painting the conflict as a costly war driven by corrupt elite interests at the expense of ordinary Americans.

Yes, Reality Demands More Guns, Larger Guns, Everywhere

CDR Salamander

After the invention of gunpowder, every time a navy faces conflict after a long time at peace, one of the first things they realize they have to do is to get more guns, and larger caliber guns, on their ships as soon as possible. This reality today also applies to a side-branch, missiles, as well, but today let’s focus on the gun proof.

In peace, the accountants and those who are willing to shift their personal career risk onto combat risk worn by other people will happily divest platforms of money and people hungry weapons to buy cheaper, smaller, none—or if they are feeling a little guilty, will “fit for but not with”.

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