Giorgio Cafiero
Despite its focus on the war in Ukraine, Russia shows no signs of letting go of its legacy influence in Central Asia.
Embracing multi-vector foreign policies, Central Asian states have sought to balance external powers. While welcoming engagement from both the European Union and the United States, these former Soviet republics are navigating the geopolitical shifts caused by the Ukraine War as they seek to avoid overdependence on any single external power, particularly Russia and China.
Nonetheless, while regional governments seek greater autonomy from Moscow, they are not turning away from Russia entirely. In fact, Central Asian republics have deepened cooperation with Moscow in select areas in recent years. As a result, Western efforts to challenge Russia in the region will face significant challenges, even as Central Asian countries pursue a broader range of foreign policy options.
Central Asia’s ties to Russia are deeply rooted in the region’s Soviet past, with these nations maintaining strong connections in areas such as energy, trade, defense, and migration. With a military presence in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, Russia remains the primary security guarantor for the Central Asian republics. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)—a military alliance that includes Russia and the Central Asian republics except Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—reinforces this influence.
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