The United States Navy faces an inflection point in the design and sustainment of its surface fleet, as delays, cancellations and industrial shortfalls collide with rising operational demands. Forthcoming budget choices, industrial timelines and early tests of new uncrewed vessels will shape whether the fleet can regain momentum by the late 2020s.
The abrupt curtailment of the Constellation-class frigate programme in November 2025, paired with mounting delays across American naval shipyards, has underscored the fragility of the United States’ surface-fleet plans. Because it takes many years and considerable funds to develop and produce warships, even compared to other defence-industrial projects, a navy is shaped by its need for sustained and broad political and economic mobilisation. A fleet is a country’s grand strategy made manifest in steel. Ships, in turn, remain in service for decades, and a fleet is slow to change. This shapes a country’s statecraft over the long term.
A fleet is a country’s grand strategy made manifest in steel.
The trajectory of the American sea services is at a malleable and uncertain point, as it was during the late Cold War. Maritime conflicts in the Red Sea and Black Sea in recent years have forced some reconsideration of the role of US naval forces. In addition, China is outpacing the US in the construction of high-end surface combatants and in the size and sophistication of its anti-ship-missile portfolio.
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