Ilan Berman
When it comes to a nation’s potential, few factors matter more than demographics. The pace of a country’s population determines a great many things, from the vibrancy of its society to its global competitiveness.
That’s what makes the case of Russia so striking. Despite the ambitious neo-imperial agenda that has been charted by Vladimir Putin in recent years, the country is locked in a pattern of massive, protracted demographic decline that has the potential to fundamentally alter the complexion of the state. I have written on this subject for publications like The National Interest and The Moscow Times, and most extensively in my 2013 book Implosion: The End of Russia and What It Means for America.
An aged Chinese couple walk by several rows of lanterns in Beijing, China. (Getty Images)
What is less well understood is that China is facing an equally ominous demographic profile. Just how significant of a problem this is for the People's Republic of China (PRC) is reflected in the most recent data update from the U.S. Census Bureau. That information projects that, in the years ahead, China’s current population of 1.4 billion will face marked decline, and could fall by more than half by 2100. These projections, moreover, are broadly consistent with those of institutions like the World Bank, which project a population plateau in the near future, followed by deepening decline in subsequent decades.
This trajectory is due to multiple causes, most prominently the ruinous long-term effects of Beijing’s now rescinded “one-child policy.” That policy, launched in 1979 and formally ended in 2015, helped lock the country into one of the world’s lowest fertility rates. The effects are profound: births in China are now at historically low levels, even as life expectancy has continued to rise and the share of the country’s elderly is swelling. Moreover, things are only projected to get worse in the years ahead.
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