Europe faces a demanding year in 2026. President Donald Trump’s impulsiveness and transactional approach to foreign policy make transatlantic relations hard to predict. Washington and Beijing’s focus on bilateral negotiations will marginalize Europe. Worse, Europe’s declining relevance in Beijing’s foreign-policy thinking means Brussels should prepare for a China unwilling to offer meaningful concessions.
To help European actors anticipate what 2026 might bring, MERICS has developed a foresight effort to identify key China risks, especially those with the biggest impact on European interests and security. To identify these, we hosted two separate, off-the-record foresight workshops with officials and experts from across Europe. They assessed China’s likely trajectory over the next five years, and which trends might have the deepest impact on Europe-China relations. We then held a further, internal workshop with analysts from MERICS’ research teams to refine our selection of risks.
No comments:
Post a Comment