5 January 2026

The Demographic Decline of China

Philip Huffman

Over the past half century, China has experienced massive growth—from the world’s 10th largest economy in 1980 to the number two spot today. It boasts a massive and expanding military, advanced technology, and a wide range of natural resources. Perhaps though, the greatest Chinese asset is the Chinese people, 1.4 billion of them to be exact. While the U.S. is still ahead of China as the world’s economic power and its military continues to have an edge, its population of 340 million is dwarfed by the behemoth of the Chinese population of 1.4 billion. That’s at least 4 Chinese people for every American. China’s population has been key to its strength: the economic output of a Chinese citizen per year is $12,600, which is far below the U.S. average of $82,700, but since there are 1.4 billion Chinese people, the total economic output of the country is around $18 trillion and that’s much closer to the U.S. total which is at around $29 trillion. If China had America’s civilian to active military ratio (0.4%) then it would have an active military of 5.4 million—giving it the potential to overpower the U.S. active military which stands at 1.4 million. With such a large population, it’s no wonder that China has made incredible strides in AI and quantum computing with its incredible supply of human capital. The country is still seen as the world’s factory as it has an overabundance of cheap labor, and it remains one of the world’s largest markets. However, although China has benefited massively from its large population, its demographic future is in danger.

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