Paul Goble
The military conflict in and around Iran is creating new winners and losers among the countries of the former Soviet space, transforming their relationships with one another and with the rest of the world (RITM Eurasia, March 3). Iran appears to have launched drone attacks on Azerbaijan’s exclave of Nakhchivan (Akcent, March 5; Caliber, March 7). Tehran has also restricted the flow of food northward to some countries in the region (Stan Radar, March 5).
Broader transformations stem, however, not from direct effects on these countries, but rather from the conflict closing Iran as a transit corridor, boosting oil prices, and prompting Iran’s neighbors to take sides in the conflict (Cronos Central Asia; Stan Radar, March 3; Bugin.info, March 6). Some of these consequences are likely to end when the conflict does, but others may continue long into the future. As a result, many governments in the region are now discussing how to benefit from the fallout if they find themselves on the winning side, or how to reduce their losses if they have suffered from the conflict itself (Stan Radar, March 7).
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