15 March 2026

Middle East war: military, strategic and diplomatic angles

Douglas Barrie

Tehran’s stock of close, short, medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles was a central pillar of its deterrence strategy. However, this strategy was found wanting when faced with the aerial onslaught by Israel and the United States.

Iran expended a significant element of its medium- and intermediate-range ballistic-missile inventory during the Twelve-Day War in June 2025. The extent to which it was able to replace these missiles in the interim would have depended on its ability to repair damaged manufacturing facilities and secure the raw materials for propellant manufacture.

Despite this, however, Iran may have so far launched over 700+ ballistic missiles, with Israel and the United Arab Emirates the recipients of most attention. Ground-based air defence was used in both countries to intercept nearly all the missiles. In the UAE, the Ministry of Defence said on 1 March 2026 that since the beginning of the Israeli and US attacks, it had engaged 165 ballistic missiles. Two days later, this figure had grown only to 186, of which 172 were engaged, 13 fell in the sea and one impacted the UAE. By 4 March, the total was 189, and by 9 March it had reached 253, of which only two had struck UAE territory.

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