Daniel Byman
The end may be in sight for the current war in the Middle East, with its massive U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran and Iranian attacks on U.S. regional allies and Gulf shipping. Even then, however, hostilities may not stop. One plausible future scenario is that the Iranian regime and Israel remain in a state of low-level conflict that involves cyberattacks, sabotage, terrorism, and the occasional overt military strike, with the United States perhaps joining in from time to time. For Israel, this will be a way to keep Iran weak and off balance, while Tehran will be striking back out of vengeance, to legitimize its tottering regime, and to restore deterrence.
The future of the Iranian regime is unclear, but one plausible scenario—perhaps the most plausible—is that it will emerge from the war weak but unbowed, and perhaps even more radical. Regime change is possible but unlikely, and the decision to choose Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as his successor signals defiance and a strong role for the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
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