Ilan Berman
The United States has proved its military superiority over Iran. Whether it can secure Iran’s enriched uranium, protect the Gulf states, and encourage popular protests is a different story.
What is already being called the Third Gulf War is now in its second week, and most of the commentary so far has focused on US and Israeli military operations, as well as Iran’s maximalist response. But three other issues are likely to determine the conflict’s future course and what might come next for both Iran and the region.
The first is the fate of Iran’s remaining uranium. Even if key nuclear facilities have now been damaged or destroyed, the most important issue isn’t the technology that they housed but the regime’s existing fissile material. Iran had managed to accumulate significant stocks of enriched uranium before the war, and those weren’t successfully eliminated during last summer’s “12-Day War.” According to authoritative estimates, the regime still possesses 440 kilograms or more of 60 percent enriched uranium—a sufficient quantity, if it were enriched further, to produce 10 nuclear weapons.
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