European countries are investing at least USD109 billion in space capabilities by 2030. At a minimum, sharing the defence burden in space with the United States requires an additional USD10bn, and full autonomy another USD25bn.
European governments have announced ambitions to significantly build up their military space assets in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine and Europe’s overdependence on the United States in the space domain. This report examines how European allies could strengthen their ability to operate in, through and from space in a European-theatre contingency.
Any major Russian military operation against one or more NATO allies would unfold in a contested space domain. Russian counterspace capabilities – including direct-ascent anti-satellite systems, jamming, cyber operations and on-orbit proximity activities – are already operational. European governments, armed forces and societies are dependent on space-enabled services, including satellite communications; positioning, navigation and timing through systems such as the Global Positioning System and Galileo; and Earth observation. These systems and their associated ground segments constitute critical assets and would be priority targets in a high-intensity conflict.
However, European allies remain significantly dependent on the US for several high-end space enablers. The most acute dependencies lie in launch; space-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR); missile early warning; and high-end space situational awareness (SSA). While transatlantic cooperation remains central to European security, shifts in US strategic priorities and burden-sharing expectations underscore the need for its European allies to invest in their own military space capabilities.
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