China: The Next Aircraft Carrier Superpower

Caleb Larson

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China’s Type 004 aircraft carrier will be the country’s first nuclear-powered supercarrier—a leap forward that will put Beijing in an exclusive club currently shared only by the U.S. Navy and France. Once the Type 004 enters service, China will join a small group of nations operating nuclear-powered carriers with virtually unlimited range constrained only by crew sustainment requirements.

China’s Navy, the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, counts more ships in its fleet than any other navy in the world — and the PLAN’s carrier building is picking up pace too. China’s carrier construction over the past several decades has aimed to give Beijing a robust power-projection capability in its near abroad.

Beijing Arrived Late to a War It Cannot End

Lynne O'Donnell

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Beijing has cast itself as a mediator between Pakistan and the Taliban, neighbours locked in a border conflict that was bound to erupt. China has leant on its ties to both sides to present itself as the only route to stability.

But the effort has stalled before it has properly begun. The frontier is still hot since the serious outbreak of fighting began in February, with strikes continuing in both directions. Neither Pakistan nor the Taliban has shifted position.

What China has exposed is not its influence, but its limits. Its intervention was designed to keep instability from spilling across its borders and into Chinese interests. That transactional, risk-averse approach leaves Beijing with no real leverage over either side. From a distance, it looks like control; up close, it is drift.

China’s War Wolves: From Commercial Tech to Combat Power

Craig Singleton, JackBurnham, Duncan Lazarow & Anika Iyer

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China is not just modernizing its military. It is reimagining how future wars will be fought. The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) embrace of “intelligentized warfare” (智能化战争) reflects a systematic effort to integrate artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and unmanned systems into frontline operations. Robotic quadrupeds — often described in Chinese reporting as “robotic wolves” — sit at the center of this shift. These robots are not propaganda props. They offer a clear window into how China is converting commercial innovation into combat power.

The PLA’s robotics strategy matters because Taiwan is the most plausible test case for many of these cutting-edge systems. A cross-strait conflict would force the PLA to confront its hardest operational problems: contested littorals, dense urban terrain, degraded communications environments, and the threat of high casualties in the opening phase of combat. Semi-autonomous and autonomous platforms could shape whether the PLA sustains operational momentum or stalls when it matters most.

Trump Looks for a Silver Bullet to End the Iran War. There May Be None.

Steven Erlanger

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President Trump keeps looking for the magic formula that will deliver him victory in Iran.

First was the airstrike last June intended, he said, to “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear program. Then came the intense February air campaign carried out with Israel and designed, he said, to deliver regime change and a popular uprising. Then he bet on a blockade of Iranian shipping to end the Iranian stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, in a new effort to break Iran’s control over the strait, Mr. Trump has announced a plan with few details to help guide stranded ships out through it. Iran responded with missiles and drones, and given the risks, most tankers are unlikely to dare crossing the strait for now.

US's Latest "Project Freedom" Boondoggle Sinks in Less Than a Day

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The carnival is in its last season, and it’s beginning to show its age, appearing at times both erratic and woefully rehearsed to exasperated audiences. The latest spectacle saw Trump launch an ill-fated and ill-planned ‘Project Freedom’, a kind of freedom of navigation gimmick in Hormuz, which immediately flopped hours later when US destroyers attempting to cross the strait were targeted by Iran.

The entire charade was particularly confused: for instance, the US official “guidance” for this bizarro stunt essentially told daring vessels to “chance it” through Omani territorial waters in the hopes it would avoid Iranian strikes.

Rubio is right about Iran’s economic nuke — that’s the problem

Eric Alter

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A German naval vessel named the Fulda is in the Mediterranean, ready to do the one thing without which the Strait of Hormuz cannot physically reopen: find and clear the mines Iran planted and has since lost track of, the ones the US Pentagon told Congress could take six months to remove.

France and Britain have brought together more than 50 countries around a common mission. Washington’s response was to threaten troop withdrawals from Germany and to attack Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Truth Social after he noted that the US had no exit strategy. One response creates something long-lasting, whereas the other is just for show.

Iran Conflict Could Help Revive Moribund Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline

John C. K. Daly

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The Iran conflict has made completing the moribund Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCP) increasingly attractive. Central Asia is looking to export its resources to Europe because of Russia’s waning influence and because of growing natural gas demand as the conflict in the Persian Gulf endangers Europe’s access to Middle Eastern gas.

The TCP would link Central Asia to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor and could annually deliver 1.06 trillion cubic feet of gas worth $5 billion. Progress has long been blocked by legal disputes amid the Caspian littoral states and financing challenges. Shifting geopolitics—including EU efforts to replace Russian gas, Russia’s pivot from selling gas to Europe to the People’s Republic of China, and conflict in the Persian Gulf—create the best window of opportunity for the TCP’s construction since the project’s inception.

Iran Has All the Hallmarks of a Forever War

Will Walldorf

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Is the U.S.-Iran conflict becoming a forever war? At first glance, it doesn’t look that way. Rising oil and gas prices, growing congressional pressure around the War Powers Resolution, and scant public support are putting pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump to end the conflict soon.

But if history is any guide, there’s a real chance the war continues to drag on.

The EU’s quarter-life crisis

Pawel Zerka

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Let’s say you have a friend who fell asleep five years ago and has only just woken up. That friend asks you: “How is Europe these days?” What would you respond?

You would probably associate Europe with the EU, and you would perhaps recognise that the EU is in a delicate state; not just because of the wars surrounding it, the looming economic crisis and the fraying transatlantic relationship, but also because of its growing self-doubt.

Can it reconcile being a peace project with an ambitious investment in defence? Can it be faithful to its own ideals—of human rights and non-discrimination—when its citizens are susceptible to migration panic? Can it rely on diplomacy and international rules when the world appears to be returning to the law of the jungle? And can it survive in that predatory world—politically, economically and culturally? These are precisely the questions that feature in the current speeches of European leaders—from Ursula von der Leyen, to Emmanuel Macron, to Pedro Sánchez.

Regime Change from the Sky: Strategy, Air Power and the Illusion of Control

M.L.R. Smith

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The government ‘does not believe in regime change from the skies’, declared Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, offering a justification for Britain’s decision to stay out of the United States and Israel’s strikes against Iran.[1]

Starmer cited the case of the Iraq war, a campaign that opened with ‘shock and awe’[2] from the air, followed by a rapid ground advance that swept Saddam Hussein from power, only to give way to years of insurgency and attrition.[3] That experience, coupled with the long, wearying effort in Afghanistan,[4] has left a lingering suspicion of promises that war can be conducted cleanly at distance, that precision can substitute for presence, and that a regime can be destroyed from above without the burdens of occupation.[5]

Recent events appear to reinforce the point, at least in the short term. After more than a month of sustained strikes against Iran, the core of the regime, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has not folded. It has absorbed losses, including the targeted assassination of senior figures and leadership cadres, yet continues to function, retaliate and adapt. The system has proved neither brittle nor easily dislodged.[6]

Barack Obama Considers His Role in the Age of Trump

Peter Slevin

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In Barack Obama’s final days in office, he found himself in the painful position of trying to console his staff, the Democratic Party, and millions of supporters. He attempted to convince them—even if he could not entirely convince himself—that the looming Presidency of Donald Trump was not a national calamity. In the past, he would say, the country had endured slavery, the Civil War, the Great Depression, Jim Crow, assassinations. And, though Trump was alarming in many ways, America was blessed by the strength of its institutions and the resilience of its people. The word “guardrails” was uttered constantly. In Obama’s estimation, Trump would not erase all his achievements. As he put it, “Maybe fifteen per cent of that gets rolled back.”

This kind of calm was pure Obama. His appeal had as much to do with character and temperament as it did with his center-left ideology. Although Obama believed that Trump’s ugliest slurs against him, particularly his deployment of the birther theory, were a racist outrage that heightened the threats against him and his family, he now took pains to set aside his contempt. Insuring that there was another orderly transition of power—that, too, was part of his rhetoric of consolation.

Europe Can No Longer Trust America

Dalibor Rohac

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In his recent interview with the Financial Times, Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, startled many by predicting that Russia might soon test NATO’s resolve to defend its allies. Yet what has ruffled feathers even more was his question about the “loyalty” of the United States as an ally.

Given Poland’s steadfastness over the past thirty years, it is easy to sympathize with Tusk. Regardless of who holds power in Warsaw, Poland has always taken its defense seriously. It has bought U.S.-made military equipment and welcomed U.S. investment—including in nuclear energy.

The Digital Insurgency: Cyber Operations and the Future of Resistance

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The most consequential threats in modern conflict may not come from missiles or troop movements; they come through networks, supply chains, and the quiet erosion of economic stability. In this episode, researcher and irregular warfare expert Tom Johansmeyer explores the intersection of cyber operations, reinsurance, and economic security, and what these largely overlooked domains mean for the SOF enterprise. Johansmeyer, co-lead of the Economic and Legal Warfare project at the Irregular Warfare Initiative, brings a data-driven lens to questions that rarely get asked: How much economic damage do cyber attacks actually cause? Can insurance be weaponized as a tool of statecraft? And what role does economic fragility play in opening the door to adversary influence?

The SOF Professional Podcast’s episode pairs well with this Resistance Hub Podcast discussion, which examines how modern resistance movements, insurgent groups, and state security forces now operate inside the digital and information environment rather than only on physical battlefields. Drawing on research into cyber operations, social media, surveillance, and networked organization, the analysis explains how power is exercised through data, narratives, online mobilization, and digital infrastructure.

Ukraine, the Peace Process, and the Washington War Machine

Steve Cortes

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Mitch McConnell just wrote an opinion piece in the highly partisan Washington Post excoriating the Trump administration for slowing the pace of massive U.S. taxpayer assistance to the Volodymyr Zelenskyy government in Kyiv. Mitch McConnell was first elected to the Senate over 40 years ago, in 1984. For several years now, public incidents have cast serious doubts upon the physical and mental ability of the senator to properly fulfill the demands of his office, as he now heads into retirement.

Accordingly, any rational observer of McConnell might harbor real doubts that he even penned this latest pro-escalation, Zelensky-adoring screed. Nonetheless, it is vital for the patriotic populist movement to continue to make the case for an America First foreign policy of realism and restraint, consistent with years of campaigning and messaging from the movement.

Who will blink first?

Lawrence Freedman

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There was a famous moment during the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when news came through to President Kennedy and his advisors that the Soviet ships they feared were about to challenge the US blockade of Cuba had turned away. Recalling a childhood game when he and his friends would try to outstare each other, Secretary of State Dean Rusk observed: ‘We’re eyeball to eyeball and I think the other fellow just blinked.’

As it happens the blinking had occurred sometime before. Almost as soon as Moscow learned of the blockade it ordered Soviet ships to stay clear. Contrary to the apprehensions of Kennedy and his advisors, by the time Rusk made his comment all Soviet ships were far away from the quarantine line. Nor was that the moment of greatest danger. There was more blinking to be done before the crisis was over. The big test was getting the Soviet missiles out of Cuba. Nonetheless, this moment showed that the crisis was potentially manageable and that the Soviets were wary about escalation.

Russia Rebuilding Occupied Ukraine for Extraction

Maksym Beznosiuk

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Moscow’s latest reconstruction plans for the occupied territories of Ukraine are less about recovery and more about consolidating political and economic control. The Kremlin is developing an extractive occupation model focused on seizing property, exporting grain and other products, and exploiting critical minerals to support Russia’s wartime economy.

Living conditions in the occupied territories continue to deteriorate, with shortages of electricity, gas, water, medicine, food, and basic municipal services becoming ever more common.

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Deep in Russia Grow Public Alarm

Kassie Corelli

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Ukrainian drones attacked Yekaterinburg, a city located deep inside Russia, for the first time on April 25. The attack damaged a high-rise apartment building (DW Russkaya Sluzhba, April 25). From the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin framed the war as a “special operation,” a geographically limited endeavor that the majority of Russians could ignore while continuing normal life (Kommersant, May 26, 2023). Now, however, it is virtually impossible for the average person to distance themselves from Putin’s war against Ukraine as armed conflict increasingly spills onto Russian territory.

Even stalwart supporters of Russia’s war against Ukraine admit that “there is no longer a rear area,” the “Special Military Operation” did not achieve its goals, and huge numbers of Russians have died (YouTube/@Borovskih, April 28). At the end of March, loyalist military expert Rustem Klupov said that the number of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) striking Russia increased 250 percent since the beginning of the year (Biznes Online, March 28).

The Lessons of the Long Confucian Peace

Michael J. Gigante, Joshua Stone, Daniel Druckman, and Ming Wan

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For decades, scholars and politicians have marveled at the fact that democracies do not fight one another. “The absence of war between democracies comes as close as anything we have to an empirical law in international relations,” wrote the political scientist Jack Levy in 1988. “Democracies don’t attack each other. They make better trading partners and partners in diplomacy,” U.S. President Bill Clinton declared in 1994. “There are no clear-cut cases of one democracy going to war against another,” the political scientist Michael Doyle wrote in 2024, “nor do any seem forthcoming.”

The Marine Corps Is No Longer Ready for Urban Warfare

Gary Anderson

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Recently, my colleague Greg Maresca wrote an excellent description of life aboard a Navy amphibious ship with one of the two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) currently afloat in the Persian Gulf. My last “float” was in 1978-79 with the predecessor of the 31st MEU now in the Gulf — they were then called Marine Amphibious Units (MAUs). (READ MORE: America’s 9-1-1 Force on Float)

Life aboard ship was exactly as Greg described it. However, being peacetime, we did get some great liberty in places like Hong Kong (then British), Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan. We practiced and were ready for nearly every foreseeable contingency, ranging from the evacuation of U.S. citizens from trouble spots to humanitarian relief. What we were not ready for was urban warfare. In those days, military doctrine was to bypass cities when possible, even though Marines had fought in Seoul in the Korean War and Hue City. Today’s MEUs are no better prepared for urban warfare than we were. (RELATED: A Marine Corps Hollowed Out)

How to verify images and videosResearch Briefing

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Images, videos and audio clips frequently go viral on social media purporting to show something that later turns out to be false. They might be real images but with the wrong context, they might be digitally manipulated, or they might be entirely generated using artificial intelligence (AI). They often relate to divisive or emotive topics such as elections and conflicts.

The following questions can help investigate whether an image or clip of video or audio is real and shows what it purports to show. However, the answers to these questions might not necessarily resolve a report’s truth or falsehood forever: uncertainty is an inherent part of knowledge and knowledge is improved and revised over time. This article is part of the Commons Library’s good information toolkit, which reviews the strategies and criteria for spotting misinformation and working out what information can be relied upon.

Autonomy, Robotics, and Predictive Analytics: Sustainment’s Technology Trifecta and the Future of War

Charlie Phelps

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The intense humidity and radiating heat were oppressive and stifling. From his cramped observation post dug into the Luzon coastline a platoon leader watched the heat shimmer rise from the sand. His platoon was down to their last case of MREs, the prepackaged meals the soldiers had been living on since establishing the site, and their supply of iodine tablets for water purification was nearing critical levels. Issued solar panels were damaged beyond repair and radios were critically low on batteries. Ammunition resupply to the platoon was becoming increasingly irregular given the observation post’s separation from the rest of the battalion. The only thing keeping his platoon protected from enemy fixed- and rotary-wing assets was the Patriot battery hidden in the jungle two kilometers inland. His platoon was assigned to defend the battery; he and his soldiers depended on the battery for survival and that battery was down to its last two interceptors.

The platoon had limited options with the surrounding airspace around it resembling a hornet’s nest. Enemy drones, from small quadcopters to larger, persistent reconnaissance platforms, crisscrossed the sky, their sensors hungry for any sign of movement. The platoon had expended its man-portable surface-to-air systems in the first forty-eight hours of their employment. A traditional C-130 airdrop to resupply the platoon was suicide. A conventional landing craft would be spotted and sunk miles from shore. The soldiers were, in the classic military sense, on the verge of culmination, their combat power bleeding away not from enemy fire, but from the tyranny of distance so often discussed before the outbreak of hostilities in the Indo-Pacific region.