Mediator Or Strategic Opportunist? Pakistan Faces Scrutiny Over Its Role In Iran Conflict

Eurasia Review  |  Daud Khattak

Pakistan's strategic role as a mediator in the escalating Iran-United States conflict faces intense scrutiny following reports of Iranian military aircraft being parked at Pakistan's Nur Khan Air Base, potentially shielding them from US airstrikes. This incident has reignited long-standing US concerns about Islamabad's "double game" and its ability to balance close security ties with Washington while maintaining strategic relationships with US adversaries like Iran and China. Despite the Pakistani Foreign Ministry's denial of any military contingency, US officials and Senator Lindsey Graham have called for a reevaluation of Pakistan's mediating credibility. Islamabad, a nuclear-armed nation bordering Iran and Afghanistan, has actively sought to leverage its geopolitical position, including nominating former President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, to enhance its international visibility and secure strategic benefits. Analysts suggest Pakistan's actions are a tactical gamble to gain influence and economic dividends, navigating complex pressures from Washington, Kabul, and Riyadh, while critics in India and the US question its true intentions and alignment.

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The Coming Food Crisis in South Asia

The Diplomat  |  Santosh Nepal

Disruptions in oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, are precipitating an impending food crisis in South Asia by severely impacting fertilizer markets and agricultural systems. Modern agri-food systems are heavily energy-dependent, with nitrogen fertilizer production relying on natural gas. South Asian countries, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, are highly vulnerable due to their significant reliance on imported fertilizers and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. Higher fuel costs and logistical disruptions exacerbate supply chain issues, leading to delayed deliveries and reduced availability of essential nutrients for crops. This situation mirrors the 2007-2008 global food crisis, where rising oil prices tripled fertilizer costs and surged global food prices by over 50 percent, pushing millions into extreme poverty. To mitigate this, South Asia requires immediate stabilization measures like strategic reserves, diversified import sources, and regional cooperation, alongside long-term strategies such as improving fertilizer use efficiency, investing in alternative nutrient sources, and strengthening domestic supply systems.

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Has Thailand’s People’s Party Lost The Support Of The Young?

Eurasia Review  |  Panarat Anamwathana

Thailand's progressive People's Party (PP), successor to the Move Forward Party (MFP), experienced a significant electoral setback in the February 2026 snap election, despite unexpectedly winning the 2023 general election. This analysis, utilizing Kid for Kids survey data (2022, 2025) and NIDA poll results (January 2026), reveals that while PP's ideological alignment among young Thais surged to nearly 80% by 2025, a controversial "Grand Compromise" in August 2025—where PP backed the pro-establishment Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) leader Anutin Charnvirakul as interim prime minister—caused disappointment among its youth base. Despite this perceived ideological betrayal, subsequent polls indicate PP retained substantial youth support, with over 61% backing its prime ministerial candidates and nearly 70% intending to vote for the party. This continued support suggests a blend of understanding for the party's difficult political position and a lack of viable progressive alternatives, posing a strategic challenge for PP to translate youth appeal into consistent electoral victories amidst entrenched institutional resistance.

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What to Expect Ahead of Next Week’s Trump-Xi Summit

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Michael Froman

The upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping aims for stability rather than resolving fundamental bilateral issues, reflecting a pragmatic approach focused on avoiding direct conflict. Expected outcomes include commercial deals, such as U.S. commodity and aircraft purchases, and potentially the establishment of a “Board of Trade” to institutionalize managed trade and mitigate episodic tensions. However, this strategy is unlikely to address China's mercantilist economic model, its global trade imbalances, its designs on Taiwan, its rapid nuclear arsenal expansion, the lack of AI guardrails, or its continued support for U.S. adversaries like Iran, Russia, and North Korea. The U.S. appears to be using this détente to invest domestically and build coalitions, preparing for future pushback, but risks escalating unresolved issues into future conflicts.

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Who Really Needs Whom? Trump, Xi Jinping, and the Illusion of Chinese Strength

American Greatness 

Xi Jinping's regime, despite its outward projection of strength, faces significant internal vulnerabilities that challenge the conventional wisdom regarding U.S.-China negotiations. The Chinese Communist Party exhibits insecurity through purges of military and party officials, suggesting deep internal distrust. Economically, China is struggling with dramatically slowed growth, severe youth unemployment, a collapsing real estate sector, weak consumer confidence, and local government debt, indicating a cracking export-driven model. Global supply chains are diversifying away from China, reducing international dependence. On Iran, China's reliance on Iranian oil for energy security makes it more vulnerable to Middle East instability than the energy-independent United States. Regarding Taiwan, China's large navy may mask corruption and significant technological and logistical weaknesses compared to the U.S. military. Ultimately, Xi Jinping may need international legitimacy from a summit with an American president more than the U.S. needs strategic concessions from China, as Trump can politically survive without Xi, while Xi faces mounting domestic pressures from a fragile, internally distrustful system.

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AI creates a fearsome cold-war-style dilemma

The Economist

The United States and China face a profound strategic dilemma regarding artificial intelligence (AI), akin to the atomic bomb's impact during the Cold War. As AI models rapidly advance, they become increasingly vital for national prosperity and geopolitical influence, yet simultaneously amplify significant risks. This critical issue is expected to be a key topic when Chinese President Xi Jinping and former US President Donald Trump meet in Beijing on May 14th-15th, alongside other pressing matters like Middle East conflicts, trade imbalances, and the status of Taiwan. Elites in both nations are deeply concerned by AI's rapid development, necessitating a delicate balance between fostering technological cooperation and managing intense strategic competition to mitigate potential catastrophic outcomes.

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The Beijing Summit: Two Superpowers amid Global System Rupture

Velinatchakarova Substack  |  Velina Tchakarova

President Donald Trump's May 13, 2026, Beijing summit with President Xi Jinping, accompanied by a delegation of corporate leaders, is framed not as a trade discussion but as a critical juncture for the global system's survival. This meeting occurs amidst the "Fourth Systemic Crisis," triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and destruction of Gulf energy infrastructure, which has initiated cascading simultaneity across energy, food, industrial supply chains, financial systems, political stability, technology, and military structures. The article posits a "Triumvirate" of US, China, and Russia, with the "DragonBear" (China-Russia alignment) forming a strategic counterweight to American primacy. The summit's success hinges on establishing five conditions: mutual recognition of core security interests (Taiwan), joint crisis management for maritime chokepoints (Hormuz, Malacca), coordinated guardrails on AI military applications, a stabilization mechanism for critical mineral and semiconductor supply chains, and a shared commitment to preventing state failure in the Global South due to the energy-fertilizer-food cascade. The true measure of the summit is whether it initiates a structural framework for great power coexistence, moving beyond transactional crisis management.

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Key Changes in U.S. and Chinese Military Capabilities, 2017–2024

RAND Corporation  |  Jacob L. Heim, Cristina L. Garafola

U.S. defense policymakers identify the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the most formidable military competitor to the United States, necessitating a detailed understanding of the evolving military balance. This paper compiles open-source data on the significant changes in both PRC and U.S. military capabilities between 2017 and 2024, serving as a critical reference for U.S. policymakers and the public. The analysis aims to inform strategic planning and decision-making by outlining the trajectory of military modernization and force development in both nations. By systematically documenting these shifts, the RAND Corporation provides an essential resource for assessing the dynamics of the U.S.-China military competition, highlighting areas of convergence, divergence, and potential strategic implications for regional and global security.

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America Has Lost Its Leverage Over China: How Trump and Xi Could Cement Beijing’s Advantage for Years to Come

Foreign Affairs  |  Henrietta Levin

The United States, under a hypothetical Trump administration in 2025-2026, has significantly lost its strategic leverage over China, culminating in Beijing gaining an effective veto over critical U.S. national security measures. Following a 2025 trade war initiated by the U.S. and reciprocated by China, Beijing's strategic move to block rare-earth element exports compelled Washington to seek an off-ramp, validating China's assumption of superior negotiating power. This shift in dynamics led to a deal where the U.S. withdrew a new regulation on export controls for sanctioned entities' subsidiaries and agreed to forgo new export controls specifically targeting Chinese entities. These concessions, reinforced by anticipated meetings between President Trump and President Xi, are projected to embolden Beijing to test American resolve on sensitive issues like Taiwan and the protection of cutting-edge technology, thereby complicating Washington’s ability to maintain bilateral stability and cementing China’s long-term strategic advantage.

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What the Iran War Taught China About Fighting the United States

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Elisa Ewers, Michael Schiffer

China is closely observing the "Iran War" as a strategic case study for potential future conflicts with the United States, particularly concerning Taiwan. Iran's strategy, which focused on imposing significant economic and political costs without seeking outright military victory, offers Beijing a blueprint for multi-domain warfare. By choking the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy markets, and leveraging time, Tehran demonstrated how to generate substantial pressure. Chinese strategists could apply similar tactics to Taiwan, employing a layered campaign of maritime quarantine, cyber disruption, financial pressure, and selective military actions to create cumulative pressure on Taiwan, regional allies, and the United States. This approach aims to exploit U.S. vulnerabilities, such as finite military capabilities, readiness costs, and the challenge of managing rapidly cascading economic and political consequences, thereby diminishing the credibility of U.S. commitments in Asia. The conflict highlights that the U.S. must prepare for prolonged, multi-domain confrontations where economic disruption and political pressures are as decisive as military outcomes, a fundamentally different test of power.

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Signed In 1951, Broken By 1959: How China Dismantled Tibet’s Promised Autonomy

Eurasia Review  |  Ashu Mann

Communist China systematically dismantled Tibet's promised autonomy, enshrined in the 1951 Seventeen Point Agreement, through military coercion and political restructuring within less than a decade. Despite explicit commitments to preserve Tibet's political system, the Dalai Lama's authority, and religious freedoms, Beijing leveraged its military superiority, gained after the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) victory at Chamdo in 1950, to impose its will. The agreement's clauses, such as the absorption of Tibetan troops into the PLA, provided mechanisms for erosion, while CCP cadres interfered with traditional governance and initiated destabilizing land reforms in eastern Tibetan regions. Tensions culminated in the March 1959 Lhasa Uprising, which the PLA brutally suppressed, leading to the Dalai Lama's flight to India and his formal repudiation of the agreement. This period marked the definitive end of Tibetan autonomy, establishing a pattern of surveillance, cultural suppression, and restrictions on religious freedom that persists, shaping ongoing international debates about human rights and self-determination.

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Epic Interruptus: The Iranian Snare And American Defeat

Eurasia Review  |  Binoy Kampmark

Robert Kagan, a prominent neoconservative, recently lamented a unique American defeat in its efforts to subjugate Iran, asserting that the conflict has diminished US global standing while strengthening China and Russia. This assessment follows US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's declaration of Operation Epic Fury's conclusion, a claim contradicted by President Trump's continued threats and the "paused" Project Freedom. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman notably refused US access to Prince Sultan Airbase, fearing Iranian retaliation. Iranian airstrikes, initially downplayed, inflicted substantial damage on 228 structures and equipment at US military sites across the Middle East, including THAAD radars and aircraft, as verified by satellite imagery. Defensive efforts proved costly, depleting US THAAD and Patriot interceptor inventories, while Iran retains significant pre-war missile capabilities. The subsequent "Economic Fury" policy, intended to cripple Iran's funding, faces skepticism from intelligence analysts who project Iran's ability to withstand a naval blockade for 90-120 days. The US, ensnared, may need to seek China's mediation, likely at a significant cost.

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Iraq’s New Prime Minister Faces Immediate Test Balancing Iran And The U.S.

Eurasia Review  |  James Durso

Iraq's newly nominated Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, faces immediate and complex challenges in balancing the country's relations with Iran and the United States. Key issues include managing Iran-linked militias, which Washington seeks to curb by expanding sanctions and preventing their formal integration into Iraq's armed forces. Economically, Iraq's heavy dependence on Iranian natural gas imports, coupled with U.S. sanctions pressure, necessitates a strategic shift towards energy independence, a goal Washington supports to weaken Iran's economy. Furthermore, Zaidi must navigate U.S. investment interests, particularly in oil production and the ambitious Development Road project, while addressing long-standing U.S. strategic cooperation and military ties. The presence of U.S. troops and concerns over Iraqi sovereignty, especially after recent regional conflicts and perceived U.S. interference, will test Zaidi's ability to consolidate authority and form an inclusive government that satisfies diverse internal blocs and external demands without compromising national autonomy.

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Challenge for the Gulf states: rearming after the war

International Institute for Strategic Studies  |  Albert Vidal Ribe

Arab Gulf states are urgently seeking to replenish and enhance their air and missile defenses following extensive Iranian missile and uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks in 2026, which depleted existing stocks and exposed significant capability gaps. These nations have accelerated their search for new systems, approaching suppliers like the United States, United Kingdom, South Korea, and Ukraine. The US has approved over $41 billion in emergency arms sales, while the UK has convened defense companies and established a task force to expedite exports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signed defense agreements with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, exploring co-production partnerships. However, rearmament faces substantial challenges including long lead times, supply-chain bottlenecks, workforce constraints, material availability (exacerbated by China's raw material restrictions), and economic strain. Furthermore, major suppliers like the US, Israel, and European nations are prioritizing their own inventory replenishment and commitments to Ukraine and Taiwan. Consequently, Gulf states are also exploring low-cost solutions like interceptor drones, lasers, and gun systems to counter Iran's less sophisticated threats, while their indigenous defense industrial capabilities remain limited.

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Why the US and Iran Are Losing Confidence in Pakistan

National Interest  |  Natiq Malikzada

Pakistan's role as the primary mediator between the United States and Iran is faltering, as both Washington and Tehran increasingly distrust Islamabad's neutrality. Despite initial suitability due to its Muslim-majority status, ties with both nations, and regional connections, Pakistan's mediation efforts are perceived as biased. Iran views Pakistan as pushing American demands, citing concerns from officials like Ebrahim Rezaei and Pakistan's military cooperation with Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, the United States is frustrated by Pakistan's 'double-dealing,' particularly its decision to open overland trade corridors for Iranian goods, which undermines U.S. sanctions and blockade efforts. This perceived duplicity has led to a loss of confidence from both sides, suggesting a return to alternative mediators like Oman, which has a history of quiet diplomacy and a direct interest in regional stability, as a more trusted channel for negotiations.

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Russia marks German-Ukrainian drone factories as ‘potential targets”

Brussels Signal  |  John Rosenthal

Russia has designated German-Ukrainian drone manufacturing facilities as "potential targets" following a strategic partnership announcement between Germany and Ukraine for extensive military cooperation, particularly in robotic systems production. German firms like Quantum Systems and Auterion have established joint ventures with Ukrainian partners, such as Quantum Frontline Industries, WIY Drones, Tencore, and Airlogix, to produce a range of drones including Linza, Strila, Termit, X-wing, and delta-wing models in Germany. These systems, some with reported ranges of 1000 to 1500 kilometers, are intended for "deep strike capabilities" into Russian territory, a policy explicitly supported by the German Ministry of Defence. The Russian Ministry of Defence subsequently published names and addresses of European companies involved, with former President Dmitri Medvedev explicitly labeling them as potential targets. This development significantly escalates the geopolitical stakes, directly implicating European industrial infrastructure in the conflict and increasing the risk of Russian retaliatory actions beyond Ukrainian borders.

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Jamestown Foundation

China Brief, May 3, 2026, v. 26, no. 9

Great Power Conflict Concerns Spurs Stockpiling
State-Driven Nuclear Expansion is Winning Energy Race
Beijing Argues Japan’s Rearmament is Illegal
‘Fingertip Formalism’ Undermines Digital Governance
New Free Trade Zone Solidifies Eurasian Ties
Takaichi and Japan Resist Chinese Pressure

Terrorism Monitor, May 1, 2026, v. 24, no. 8

Privatization of War in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
TTP and the Escalating Islamabad-Kabul Security Crisis
Lakurawa’s Hybrid Jihadist–Criminal Governance in Northwestern Nigeria
HAYI: Iranian Proxy Targeting Jewish and Israeli Sites in Europe

Terrorism Monitor, April 17, 2026, v. 24, no. 7

‘Unconditional Escalation’ Marks Iran’s Shifting Deterrence Strategy
Outlook for Minority Rebel and Separatist Militants in Iran
Houthis and Al-Qaeda Growing Terror Supply Chain
Potential for Kurdish Militants to Capture Territory in Iran
Nigerian Leaders Resist Iranian Revolutionary

Russia launches mass drone attack on Ukraine

Defence Blog  |  Dylan Malyasov

On May 13, 2026, Russia launched one of the largest drone attacks of the war against Ukraine, deploying hundreds of Shahed-type drones in multiple waves across 14 regions, targeting critical railway infrastructure, residential areas, port facilities, and energy installations. Ukrainian monitoring services recorded 168 drone tracks in a single morning, with President Zelenskyy confirming 111 drones were neutralized overnight through interception and electronic jamming, though 20 successfully hit targets in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Poltava. This saturation attack, utilizing cost-effective Geran variants, places immense pressure on Ukraine's air defense systems, interceptor stocks, and crew endurance, forcing the commitment of multiple interceptors per target. The geographic targeting pattern suggests a deliberate effort to disrupt Ukraine’s logistics backbone. Zelenskyy highlighted the strategic timing of the assault amidst diplomatic discussions, signaling Russian intentions and underscoring Ukraine's urgent need for sustained defensive capacity from its partners.

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Another Crack in the Tariff Wall

CSIS  |  William Alan Reinsch

The U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) recently delivered a significant blow to the Trump administration's tariff policy by invalidating 10 percent tariffs imposed in February, following a prior Supreme Court ruling against tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). This decision, while narrowly applied to the state of Washington and two private sector plaintiffs, Burlap and Barrel, Inc., and Basic Fun, Inc., underscores a broader challenge to the executive branch's authority in imposing trade restrictions. The ruling highlights the critical role of judicial oversight in U.S. trade policy, particularly concerning the legal standing required for plaintiffs to demonstrate harm from government actions. Strategically, this development could constrain future administrations' ability to unilaterally implement tariffs, potentially shifting the balance of power in trade policy formulation towards Congress or requiring more robust legal justifications for such measures. The implications extend to global trade relations, signaling potential instability in U.S. trade enforcement mechanisms and inviting scrutiny from international partners and competitors.

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How Lebanon Could Finally Leave Iran’s Orbit for Good

National Interest  |  Khalid Al-Jaber

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's April decision to pursue direct political negotiations with Israel signifies a profound strategic shift, aiming to redefine Lebanon as a sovereign state independent of Iranian influence. This move, backed by the second Trump administration's policy of decoupling the Lebanon file from broader Iran negotiations, directly challenges Tehran's long-standing control via Hezbollah. While Hezbollah maintains significant military capabilities and political sway, its obstructionist tactics validate the US separation strategy. Lebanon, negotiating under an Israeli-imposed ceasefire, leverages tactical weakness into strategic advantage by appealing for international and Arab intervention. Israel also requires a stable Lebanese negotiating partner to prevent a power vacuum. The critical challenge remains disarming Hezbollah, a "red line" potentially eroding due to Iran's economic strain, a hostile Arab consensus, and Lebanese public exhaustion. International and Arab support is conditioned on the state's monopoly over arms. However, the process faces risks from internal Hezbollah-ignited strife, Israeli political maximalism, or a US-Iranian deal compromising Lebanon's independence.

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Another Crucial Maritime Chokepoint Is Under Threat

National Interest  |  Michael DeAngelo

Somali pirates have launched a significant hijacking campaign against oil tankers and cargo ships in the Red Sea corridor since April, posing the biggest threat in over a decade and disrupting global trade. This resurgence, occurring while the United States focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, risks inflicting billions in economic damages through increased insurance premiums and rerouted maritime traffic. Critically, the renewed piracy could enable al-Qaeda's Somali affiliate, al-Shabaab, to bolster its revenue streams, strengthen ties with the Houthis, and potentially conduct more attacks on US assets in East Africa or even plan attacks in the United States. The international community, currently fractured and preoccupied, must act decisively. The United States should bolster local Somali forces, particularly the Puntland Maritime Police Force, and encourage NATO allies and other international partners to conduct naval patrols in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean to contain this solvable problem before its costs escalate further.

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When AI is Wrong, Will Our Leaders Know?

Modern War Institute | Michael Hay

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military operations presents significant vulnerabilities, echoing historical challenges with new technologies like tanks and M16 rifles. While AI offers unparalleled efficiency in processing battlefield data, it risks fostering human over-reliance through psychological heuristics such as "passing the buck," "accept-and-forget thinking," and "mental dependency." Commanders may unconsciously shift accountability to AI, accept its outputs without critical review, and experience an erosion of their critical thinking skills, potentially leading to decision paralysis or commission errors. The article emphasizes that effective AI leverage demands a deliberate application of Army Doctrine Publication 6-22, _Army Leadership and the Profession_, focusing on intellect, leadership, and achievement. Leaders must cultivate critical questioning, foster communication, and prepare units to operate when AI systems fail or are compromised, ensuring adaptability and accountability. The Army must stress-test human-AI interactions in realistic combat training environments to fully understand and mitigate these risks.

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Realizing the Promise of the Drone Revolution

RAND Corporation  |  Jan Osburg, Emily Lathrop, James Ryseff, Matthew Fay, Will Shumate, M. Scott Bond

Technological advancements in unmanned vehicles are enabling a new style of warfare, characterized by large quantities of attritable, adaptable unmanned systems, each significantly cheaper than current defense platforms yet capable of mission accomplishment. These developments offer the U.S. military a strategic advantage to deter or defeat major-power adversaries possessing quantitatively superior forces. However, the U.S. Department of War (DOW) confronts multiple obstacles in operationalizing this vision. To fully leverage the drone revolution, DOW must implement coordinated changes across doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy. Furthermore, a fundamental shift in DOW's organizational culture towards greater agility and innovation is essential to realize the full promise of these emerging capabilities and maintain a competitive edge in future conflicts.

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An A2/AD Strategy for the Cognitive Domain

U.S. Naval Institute  |  Jo-Wen Huang, Yin-Hsin Chien

Taiwanese naval commanders propose an "All-Domain Denial" (ADD) strategy to counter China's evolving "unrestricted warfare" tactics, moving beyond traditional Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) concepts. While A2/AD focuses on denying physical access, ADD aims to paralyze an adversary's decision-making and situational awareness by integrating physical, virtual, military, and civilian capabilities. China's use of long-range strike systems, air-sea blockades, electronic warfare, and low-intensity incursions in the first island chain necessitates this shift. The ADD framework encompasses information, cyber/electromagnetic, cognitive, psychological, and legal-political denial, emphasizing societal resilience and narrative control. Recommendations for implementation include establishing information operations command centers, conducting social-cognitive simulations, developing strategic narratives, fostering psychological resilience through national education, and coordinating cognitive defense with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific.

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How Ukraine Is Taking the Fight Back to Russia in Crimea

National Interest  |  David Kirichenko

Ukraine's intensified campaign in Crimea is strategically degrading Russia's military infrastructure and forcing Moscow to reallocate critical air defense resources, creating significant leverage for Kyiv. Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has systematically targeted Russian assets, including the Kerch Bridge, naval vessels, and air defense systems like S-300 and Buk, significantly damaging approximately 30 percent of Russia's Black Sea Fleet by early 2026. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) and specialized drone units are employing mid-range strikes and rapidly adaptable drone technology to open gaps in Russian defenses, making the peninsula increasingly untenable as a secure rear base. This sustained pressure extends to Russian logistics routes and even distant regions like Leningrad Oblast, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to project power deep into Russian territory. The strategy aims not for immediate collapse but for a steady erosion of Russian defensive architecture, compelling the Kremlin to choose between defending Crimea or its homeland, thereby strengthening Ukraine's position in future peace negotiations.

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The ‘US blockade’ of Iran: How It Might Function (Or Not!)

Royal United Services Institute  |  Commodore (Ret’d) Steve Prest

President Donald Trump's April 12 declaration of a US blockade on Iranian ports, targeting all maritime traffic, signals a significant strategic shift towards economic leverage against Iran. This action, following collapsed diplomatic talks, aims to destabilize Iran's petrostate economy without a full-scale military assault. Iran, having dispersed its military capabilities and used drones and ballistic missiles regionally, has itself leveraged its control over the Strait of Hormuz to restrict hydrocarbon and commodity flows, causing global inflationary pressures. The blockade's legality is contentious under international law, particularly regarding the formal declaration of war and the self-defense justification, prompting concerns from nations like China about the rules-based international order. Operationally, the US Fifth Fleet faces challenges in deterring blockade runners, tracking disguised shipping, and managing interdictions, especially if major economic powers escort their vessels. While strategically sound for destabilizing the Iranian regime at lower US cost, the blockade carries substantial escalation risks with global economies.

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Carriers: Not Dead Yet, and Unquestionably not Unloved

CDR Salamander

The U.S. Navy's aircraft carriers remain indispensable for projecting national will and dominating contested environments, despite persistent arguments questioning their obsolescence. The 30-year shipbuilding plan, while allocating significant funding—over $22 billion through FY 2031 for *Gerald R. Ford*-class carriers and industrial base upgrades—reveals a slow induction rate for new carriers. This slow pace is projected to create critical gaps, potentially reducing the operational fleet to 10 carriers in 2030, 2033, 2037, and 2038, falling below the congressionally mandated minimum of 11. Although CVN-82 procurement is being accelerated, the article underscores the strategic challenge of maintaining carrier availability and the necessity for sustained bipartisan political support to counter future efforts to defund or diminish the carrier fleet. Carriers are presented as the only viable means to project decisive effects globally, outpacing adversary anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) envelopes without requiring extensive access, basing, and overflight permissions, making their continued investment a critical national security imperative.

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The Autonomous Vehicle Crossroads

Special Competitive Studies Project

The United States is currently losing the global race in autonomous vehicles (AVs) to China, despite maintaining a lead in innovation. This strategic disadvantage stems from a critical adoption gap, where U.S. technical superiority is undermined by insufficient industrial capacity and fragmented regulatory support. China dominates the hardware layer, controlling over 90% of global LiDAR production and achieving significantly lower AV production costs ($40,000 vs. $130,000-$200,000 for U.S. robotaxis). China's integrated national strategy, coordinated regulatory frameworks, and state support enable large-scale testing and deployment, while the U.S. struggles with inconsistent state policies and lower public trust. Analysis using the SCSP Tech Scorecard indicates China leads in deployment, adoption, industrial capacity, talent pipeline, and national leverage, with the U.S. only retaining an edge in innovation leadership. Bridging this adoption gap is crucial for U.S. economic resilience and national security.

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