John C. K. Daly
The conflict in and around Iran has disrupted emerging Eurasian transport networks, undermining reliance on Iranian corridors. Rapid infrastructure growth and rising transit volumes through Iran are jeopardized by U.S.–Israeli air strikes and regional instability.
Iran had become a critical hub in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative and the Russia-led International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
Attacks on key Iranian ports such as Chabahar and Bandar Abbas have stalled connectivity projects, forcing regional states to reconsider alternatives, such as the Middle Corridor that bypasses Iran.
The effect of the conflict in Iran has widened beyond the combatants to Central Asia and the South Caucasus. For years, these countries have been pursuing overland transport links with Iran. Iran has been intensifying its transport diplomacy with Central Asia for more than a decade to mitigate international sanctions and strengthen cooperation, given the growing importance of east–west and north–south transit corridors, both of which pass through Iran.
Iran has been promoting east–west transport routes that connect the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to southeastern Europe. Goods start in the PRC and traverse various routes across Central Asia, Iran, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye before reaching Europe overland or via the Black Sea. In February 2016, the inaugural freight train from the PRC arrived in Tehran, completing a 6,462-mile journey from Zhejiang via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in 14 days (Iran.ru, February 15, 2016). This route aligns with the PRC’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, of which Iran is a member (see China Brief, September 26, 2019, March 16, 2020; Belt and Road Portal, accessed March 31). Central Asia and the South Caucasus remained economically and logistically bound to Russia for decades after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Railways, pipelines, and ports built during the Soviet era kept their economies dependent upon Moscow. While allowing some access to global markets, Russia retained regional influence over transportation and trade, which it periodically used to enforce its political influence. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and increasingly harsh Western sanctions undermined this arrangement.
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