Justin Mitchell
Both Moscow and Beijing stand to benefit from a prolonged war between the United States and Iran.
Iran is isolated, fighting a war for its survival. Yet China and Russia, Iran’s supposed partners, are conspicuously absent. Both countries condemned the attacks on Iran and called for an end to hostilities, but both stopped short of sending significant military aid. Meanwhile, the United States deploys additional personnel to the Middle East, including Marines and the 82nd Airborne Division, in preparation for a potential ground invasion.
Analysts comment that China’s lack of action is“the clearest sign of Beijing’s disorientation” and that Russia’s inability to aid a “key ally is undoubtedly embarrassing.”
Rather than indifference or neglect, however, both countries have more disciplined definitions of their national interests that restrain them from direct involvement. Additionally, both powers are likely to gain strategic advantages the longer the United States is involved in the war.
China regards Asia and its immediate neighbors as the central focus of its foreign policy and military strategy. While the Middle East is important to China’s energy and trade, Beijing has never viewed it as more critical than Taiwan, Japan, or Europe. Throughout its modern history, China avoided formal alliances. The only security treaty China has is with North Korea, dating to 1961, and the strength of that commitment is questionable.
While China has delivered arms to Iran over the years, its security relationship pales in comparison to China’s security ties with Russia or North Korea. Iran is neither a deep security partner nor located in China’s priority theater, giving Beijing little reason to intervene on its behalf.
Energy is the primary driver of China’s relations with Iran. In 2025 alone, China purchased over 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports, representing 13.4 percent of its overall oil imports. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would cut off most oil exports from Iran and the other Gulf states, will affect China’s energy portfolio.
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