Small Wars Journal | Federico Borsari
A probabilistic model assesses the lethality of small tactical strike drones, including FPV quadcopters and loitering munitions, challenging the assumption that inexpensive FPV drones are universally effective across diverse operational environments. This model, considering target acquisition, system survival against countermeasures, and warhead lethality, provides a flexible analytical tool. While FPV drones excel in mass-centric, attritional conflicts like Ukraine, their limitations in manpower intensity, environmental susceptibility, interoperability, and sustainment render them suboptimal for demanding, dispersed operations with contested logistics. The US Marine Corps' selection of Teledyne FLIR’s Rogue-1 and Anduril’s Bolt-M for its Organic Precision Fires-Light (OPF-L) program exemplifies the need for robust, costlier solutions. The model demonstrates that high-end loitering munitions offer significantly greater reliability and lethality, especially in contested environments against peer adversaries, justifying their procurement where mass alone is insufficient.
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