12 May 2026

The End of Khomeinism and the Future of Shiism

Ayaan Karan

Since 1979, the Iranian regime has invested heavily in molding the Shia political identity around Khomeinism, reaching Shias from Bahrain to the United States. Drawing from non-Twelver Shia sources, Khomeini was decisive in transforming a historically quietist community into a politically revolutionary one. But the fall of Iran’s regional empire and the death of Khamenei begs the question: What is next for Shiism? Do Shias revert to a more politically quietist mindset, or will a far more radical movement follow the Axis’s collapse? The answer is both.

Traditionally, Twelver Shiism was never a politically savvy religion. Awaiting the arrival of the twelfth Imam (Messiah), Twelver Shias tended to be politically quietist and pragmatic. However, heretical extremism is not a stranger to the Shia faith. For most of early Islamic history, the majority of Shia were not Twelvers, the dominant branch today. The religion was a web of different sects, many of which were known as the Ghulat (Exaggerators). Ghulat sects differed on a bevy of issues, but common traits included apocalypticism, militancy, and messianism centered on a charismatic leader.

No comments: