Indian Strategic Studies: 04/29/26

29 April 2026

The Coming of Age of India’s Nuclear Triad

Source: Carnegie India | Author: Dinakar Peri

India achieved a continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent with the commissioning of its third nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), INS Aridhaman. This ensures the operational presence required for an assured retaliatory strike under its no-first-use doctrine.

However, strategic gaps remain. India currently relies on short-range K-15 submarine-launched missiles and must urgently operationalize the longer-range K-4 to improve strike survivability. Furthermore, the Indian Navy faces a critical shortage of nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) needed for long-range endurance. With indigenous SSNs delayed until 2036 and China rapidly expanding its naval fleet, India must accelerate both its long-range missile and attack submarine programs.

Read the full report →

Trump is right—Iran has no cards as blockade clock ticks down to May

If there had been no shooting at the White House Correspondents Dinner, the weekend media coverage would have been dominated by criticism of President Donald Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict.

Trump canceled his envoys’ travel to Islamabad for peace talks. The Iranians showed up anyway and stole the global headlines. In America, there was much pearl-clutching and handwringing about the president’s decision to prolong a conflict at great political cost to his party and economic cost to his constituents.

The Price Of Obedience: Why Bangladesh Is Still Chasing The Boeing Deal – OpEd

Aminul Hoque Polash

Bangladesh is living through a national emergency. Not a crisis in the abstract language of economists and bureaucrats, but a crisis that has entered kitchens, hospitals, farms, factories and bedrooms. It is in the darkened homes of families enduring relentless load-shedding. It is in the long queues outside fuel stations. It is in the helpless faces of parents watching children die from measles. It is in the cracked fields of farmers unable to irrigate their crops. It is in the panic of workers who know their factories may not reopen tomorrow.

The country is not simply struggling. It is being pushed toward the edge.

Fuel shortages have already crippled transport and power generation. More than half of the country’s power plants are out of operation. The government admits to 2,500 megawatts of load-shedding, but the real shortfall is believed to be far higher, already beyond 4,000 megawatts and likely to worsen. The consequences will not remain confined to homes without electricity. Factories, hospitals, courts, offices, schools, banks, internet services and emergency systems will all feel the shock.

Chinese military experts take stock of US munitions weak spot exposed by Iran war

Liu Zhen

The United States’ depleted stockpile of munitions from its war on Iran and limited production capacity will be a critical vulnerability against stronger adversaries, according to Chinese military observers. During the 39 days of war before the ceasefire, the US is estimated to have used about half of both its Patriot air defence missiles and the longer-range Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) interceptors.

Stockpiles of Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) and Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) ship-launched interceptors have also dropped significantly, according to a report published by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Tuesday.

What Happens if the U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Collapses?

Source: Foreign Policy | Author: John Haltiwanger

The article examines the precarious state of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire as of April 2026. President Trump recently extended the truce, pivoting from threats of renewed bombing to a cautious diplomatic opening. This shift is attributed to Iran’s "seriously fractured" government and the war's growing unpopularity in the U.S. due to a global energy crisis.

While the extension provides a temporary reprieve, the peace remains fragile. With the Strait of Hormuz potentially reopening and internal divisions within both governments, the conflict continues to strain global stability and Trump’s domestic political coalition.

Read the full report →

The Strait of Hormuz is today’s energy chokepoint. China is tomorrow’s.

Frank Jacobs

Frank Jacobs shifts attention from maritime geography to industrial capacity. The real strategic lesson is that control of processing may matter more than control of deposits. The weakness is that it risks sounding too deterministic, because technology, substitution, recycling, and new refining capacity could still loosen China’s grip over time.

If Chinese refineries are the real chokepoints of the next energy era, what should be the first priority for U.S. strategy: domestic refining, allied diversification, or demand reduction through innovation and substitution? Does this transition actually reduce geopolitical vulnerability, or does it simply move the world from one form of dependence on the Middle East to another form of dependence on China?

Iran Conflict Holds Lessons for U.S., Adversaries, INDOPACOM Commander Says

Patricia Kime

While the war in Iran has siphoned assets from the Pacific and is using “finite levels” of munitions, it is also providing valuable lessons that will ultimately strengthen regional defense, Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo said Tuesday.

The San Diego-based Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and components of the Japan-based Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group, embarked with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, were retasked from the Pacific to the Middle East to support Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran.

“I’m not saying that some Indo-PACOM forces have gone and that it’s nothing at all. But we have been able to account for those forces that are in [U.S. Central Command],” Paparo told lawmakers Tuesday during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing. “And there’s no substitute for the combat experience those forces in CENTCOM are conducting.”

Trump doesn’t need a deal to get what he wants from Iran

Marc A. Thiessen

Donald Trump is the consummate dealmaker. But even the greatest dealmakers know that sometimes the best deal is no deal. If Iran is not ready to agree to Trump’s terms in the next few days, now will be one of those times.

Right now, the remnants of the Iranian regime are under the misimpression that Trump wants a deal more than they do. On Tuesday, they watched as Trump extended the ceasefire to give the “fractured” Iranian side time to “come up with a unified proposal” and took it as a sign that Trump wants to avoid a return to combat. Iran’s goal is clearly to drag out the negotiations as long as possible, believing the longer major combat operations are suspended, the less likely they are to resume. They are betting that Trump, under political and economic pressure at home, does not want to restart the war.

What Does Landpower Bring to an Air and Naval Fight?

John Spencer

Operation Epic Fury has objectively been a remarkable display of deep strike, naval control, and the rapid suppression of Iranian capabilities with airstrikes and sea-launched weapons. It is no surprise that the public narrative defines it as an air and maritime campaign. That view is incomplete.

The campaign demonstrates something more important about modern war: Even in a fight centered on airpower and naval dominance, the joint force cannot succeed without landpower. For two decades after 9/11, air and naval forces played a supporting but indispensable role in land-centric wars. In Operation Epic Fury, the roles have shifted, but the reality has not. From the operation’s beginning, Army capabilities were not additive or symbolic. They were essential to protecting the force, enabling joint operations, and delivering effects that air and naval power alone could not achieve. Examining how landpower made the joint campaign possible is vital for understanding how ground forces and their unique capabilities will contribute in other theaters where airpower and seapower will be central—like the Indo-Pacific.

The Strait of Hormuz May Reopen, But the System Has Already Broken

Cyril Widdershoven

The market will panic when the Strait of Hormuz closes. When it reopens, policymakers will all feel relieved. At present, we are all witnessing this in real time, but reality is definitely the opposite. The latest data coming out in April 2026 should put an end to that illusion. Even after repeated announcements by Iran and the USA that Hormuz was “open,” real-time, actual maritime traffic only shows evidence of a near collapse. Markets are still struggling to get to grips with the fact that, during the opening of Hormuz, vessel traffic levels are still extremely low, sometimes as low as three vessels per day, compared to well over 120–140 in normal conditions. The lesson to be taken into account is no longer theoretical. The reopening of a chokepoint, such as Hormuz or Bab El Mandab, does not restore a system. It merely exposes how deeply it has already been broken.

Markets and policymakers should look at the precedent already set in the Bab El-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Despite intermittent stabilization efforts, traffic through the Red Sea corridor remains structurally depressed, even after years of reopening, with Suez throughput still far below pre-crisis levels. It has become clear that incentives such as transit fee discounts are widely failing to bring vessels back. The Houthis did not need to close the corridor permanently; they needed to make it all unreliable. That alone was enough to rewire global shipping behavior.

Iran’s Militarization Reflects Fear at Home, Not Just Threats Abroad

Dr. Sofey Saidi

As tensions escalate around Iran, a growing line of analysis suggests that the Islamic Republic is entering a more overtly militarized phase, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assuming greater influence over political decision-making. Some observers have begun to frame these developments as a shift toward military-led governance.

This interpretation overlooks what is driving the shift.

Even assuming the IRGC’s expanding role is real, it is not primarily a response to external conflict or the prospect of war with the United States. It reflects something more fundamental: the regime’s increasing reliance on coercive power to manage internal dissent and declining legitimacy.

Nato says 'no provision' to expel members after report US could seek to suspend Spain

Source: BBC | Author: Amy Walker

Summary:

NATO has clarified that its founding treaty contains no provisions to suspend or expel member states. This statement follows reports of a leaked Pentagon email suggesting the US might seek to punish allies—specifically proposing the suspension of Spain—for failing to support US military actions against Iran. Spain recently refused to allow the US to use its military bases for attacks on Iranian targets, citing international law. The email also proposed reassessing US diplomatic support for the UK's claim to the Falkland Islands. Despite US frustrations over perceived allied inaction, European leaders and NATO have firmly dismissed the threats, reaffirming alliance unity.

Read the full report →

Washington’s ‘psyop’ propaganda push could backfire, analysts say

Nayan Seth

Washington’s reported plan to have embassies team up with the American military’s “psyops” department to boost the US’ image could backfire and actually damage the country’s credibility, according to analysts.

The strategy amounts to using “propaganda to fight the truth”, according to Tad Stoermer, a historian and former lecturer at Johns Hopkins University. Amid slipping global approval, the US is looking to employ shadowy tactics that it previously condemned.

Iran Must Be Accountable for Its Proxies

Matt Cookson

While the White House continues negotiations with Iran, the blockade of Iranian ports has resulted in Iran backing out of negotiations. However, should Iran return to the negotiating table, the United States and Israel must keep in mind that Iran’s terror proxies will be discussed in any future negotiations. Israel and the U.S. are in talks over Hezbollah; questions remain over the other terror groups Iran backs. If Iran wants to protect its terror clients in the region, it needs to commit to controlling them and be held accountable when they act up.

For the past few months, the United States and Israel have engaged in an air campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran, targeting military assets and leadership. Iran’s air force, navy, and ballistic missile stockpile have been seriously degraded by this campaign. The only card Iran had left to play was a shutdown of the economically critical Strait of Hormuz. That resulted in a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the Americans and Israelis.

The Iran War and How It Might End

George Friedman

The U.S.-Israel war against Iran was to a great extent predictable. The United States feared Iran becoming a nuclear power. Israel feared that as well, and was also concerned about the Islamist forces – in this case, Hezbollah – that Iran supported in Lebanon. For the United States, the latter was at most a secondary concern, but the nuclear threat was potentially existential. The United States attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities almost one year ago, damaging but not destroying the program. In subsequent negotiations, Iran rejected the U.S. and Israeli demand that it end its nuclear program, and so war was initiated on Feb. 28.

Some have argued that Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, convinced U.S. President Donald Trump to join it in attacking Iran by claiming to possess intelligence suggesting that, if there were an attack, the Iranian people would rise up against their regime. This strikes me as dubious for three reasons.

The Quad Is on the Brink of Extinction

Source: Foreign Policy | Author: Derek Grossman

According to this Foreign Policy analysis, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—comprising the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia—is facing a potential collapse. Since returning to office in 2025, President Trump has reportedly refused to participate in leadership summits, leaving the group leaderless.

While Trump originally resurrected the Quad during his first term to counter China, his current absence has stalled momentum. A missed 2025 summit in India has forced New Delhi to settle for lower-level ministerial meetings. Experts warn that if Trump skips the upcoming 2026 summit in Australia, the grouping may become geopolitically irrelevant or dissolve entirely.

Read the full report →

America Can Reopen the Strait – Here’s How

Dennis Blair

The Strait of Hormuz is at the center of the world’s attention, and you may be wondering what exactly the U.S. military is doing to reopen it and ratchet up the pressure on the Iranian regime. Let me fill in some gaps.

I am a No Labels board member who spent 34 years in the U.S. Navy, led U.S. Pacific Command, and later served as Director of National Intelligence. I co-founded No Labels because I believe our greatest national threat is not a foreign adversary but the dysfunction at home that prevents us from dealing with those adversaries effectively. We can handle the military challenge from Iran, either on our own or, even better, through enhanced international cooperation.

The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War

Ravi Agrawal

There’s little doubt that the standoff between the United States and Iran imposes economic costs on Americans. The price at the pump is up by more than a third since the start of the war and economists project inflation rising and growth slowing. According to a recent poll by Ipsos, six out of 10 Americans disapprove of the conflict, and a majority believe U.S. military action in Iran will have a negative impact on their personal financial situations. (Only 1 percent believe the war will have a positive impact on personal finances, and less than a quarter of Americans surveyed think the conflict has been worth it.) Why, then, aren’t Americans expressing more anger about the war in the form of protests?

There are several potential answers. The same Ipsos poll finds that 44 percent of Americans have heard only “a little” about the conflict and 7 percent have heard “nothing at all,” suggesting either a lack of interest in global affairs or limited personal and financial impact. Another recent poll, by Gallup, found that Americans are more worried about health care than the economy. The United States also entered the war with historic advantages: It has become the planet’s largest producer of both oil and natural gas, its stock market is enjoying an AI-driven boom, and its imports are benefiting from a strong dollar.

Russia and Ukraine are fighting a proxy war in the Middle East

Dov Zakheim

As payback for Iran’s support of Russia’s drone manufacturing base, as well as its transfer of Shahed-16 drones, plus components for 1,300 additional drones, Moscow is now supplying Tehran with Russian-made copycat drones for attacks against the U.S. and Israel. According to Ukrainian sources, Moscow has also shared intelligence with Tehran, notably by providing targeting information against U.S. ships and aircraft, in addition to food and medicine.

For its part, Ukraine is furnishing assistance to the Arab Gulf states that have come under heavy Iranian attack. Ukraine has sent approximately 200 military advisors to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to support their defenses against missile and especially drone attacks.

Clearing Strait of Hormuz of mines could take 6 months, Pentagon tells Congress

Dan Lamothe

It could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian military, and any such operation is unlikely to be carried out until the U.S. war with Iran ends, the Pentagon has informed Congress — an assessment that means the conflict’s economic impact could extend late into this year or beyond.

A senior Defense Department official shared the estimate during a classified briefing Tuesday for members of the House Armed Services Committee, said three officials familiar with the discussion. The timeline — met with frustration by Democrats and Republicans alike, two of these people said — is the latest sign that gasoline and oil prices could remain elevated long after any peace deal is reached.

Palantir published a mini manifesto calling some cultures ‘harmful’ and ‘middling’ and said Silicon Valley has ‘a moral debt’ to the U.S.

Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

In a post on the company’s X account that has racked up 32 million views, Palantir laid out a 22-point manifesto drawn from The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West, coauthored by CEO Alex Karp and head of corporate affairs Nicholas Zamiska.

One of the document’s core arguments is that Silicon Valley owes a “moral debt” to the country that made its rise possible. The “engineering elite,” the manifesto argues, have spent decades building obsession-driven apps and social media platforms while failing to contribute substantially to the defense industry that is essential “to preserve the enduring yet fragile geopolitical advantage that the United States and its allies in Europe and elsewhere have retained over their adversaries.”

Kim’s Dangerous Liaisons

Oriana Skylar Mastro

When Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Pyongyang in June 2024, his first visit to North Korea in nearly a quarter century, the optics were striking. Russian flags and portraits of Putin adorned the capital, where he was treated to an elaborate welcome ceremony with a military honor guard and groups of balloon-toting children. But this was to be expected; such pageantry is a hallmark of North Korean politics. Less anticipated was the substance of Putin’s subsequent meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the two men signed that day formalized a relationship that had been quietly taking shape since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022: a military alliance between two nuclear-armed pariah states. By October 2024, around 11,000 North Korean troops had been deployed to Russia, primarily in the Kursk region along Ukraine’s northeastern border, to support Russian combat operations. By late April 2025, South Korean intelligence assessments put Pyongyang’s troop presence at around 15,000, and at least half that number remain deployed.

Japan loosens the reins on defence exports

Jumpei Ishimaru

On 21 April 2026, the cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae revised the rules restricting Japan’s exports of defence equipment and technology, the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology (the ‘Three Principles’), following a proposal by the ruling coalition – the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), supported by the Japan Innovation Party (JIP). The move included scrapping the rule that had limited Japan’s defence transfers of finished products to five categories of non-lethal items: rescue, transport, warning, surveillance and minesweeping.

The government is aiming to increase defence exports and thereby also to strengthen Tokyo’s deterrence, enhance the country’s defence-industrial base and generate economic growth. While the change is set to create new commercial and diplomatic opportunities, there are capacity issues that both the government and industry need to overcome.

Everyone Hates Data Centers. Why Aren’t Tech Companies Acting Like It?

Anthony J. Constantini

Data centers are critical to the development of more advanced computing, including artificial intelligence (AI), and Americans will need more of them if they continue to use the new products tech companies are putting out.

But there’s a problem: Americans absolutely hate them.

In a recent poll taken by The Washington Post, 59 percent were “uncomfortable” with new data centers being built in their communities, and only 35 percent were OK with the idea. Three years ago, those numbers were practically reversed: 69 percent of American adults were “comfortable” with new data centers being built in their communities and only 24 percent were actively uncomfortable.

Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Emerging Technologies

Muhammad Usama Khalid

The amalgamation of emerging technologies and nuclear weapons systems is significantly impacting the landscape of strategic stability. The primary problem associated with such technologies is their dual-use nature, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), hyper sonics, quantum computing, and cyber warfare. These technologies are evolving more rapidly than the treaties meant to regulate them.

The most significant emerging technology is Artificial Intelligence (AI), a prominent dual-use disruptor. In the civilian domain, it can help process large amounts of data based on its training. Meanwhile, in the nuclear domain, it affects among other things, the nuclear decision making process.

Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)