George Friedman
The U.S.-Israel war against Iran was to a great extent predictable. The United States feared Iran becoming a nuclear power. Israel feared that as well, and was also concerned about the Islamist forces – in this case, Hezbollah – that Iran supported in Lebanon. For the United States, the latter was at most a secondary concern, but the nuclear threat was potentially existential. The United States attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities almost one year ago, damaging but not destroying the program. In subsequent negotiations, Iran rejected the U.S. and Israeli demand that it end its nuclear program, and so war was initiated on Feb. 28.
Some have argued that Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, convinced U.S. President Donald Trump to join it in attacking Iran by claiming to possess intelligence suggesting that, if there were an attack, the Iranian people would rise up against their regime. This strikes me as dubious for three reasons.
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