Dr. Sofey Saidi
As tensions escalate around Iran, a growing line of analysis suggests that the Islamic Republic is entering a more overtly militarized phase, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assuming greater influence over political decision-making. Some observers have begun to frame these developments as a shift toward military-led governance.
This interpretation overlooks what is driving the shift.
Even assuming the IRGC’s expanding role is real, it is not primarily a response to external conflict or the prospect of war with the United States. It reflects something more fundamental: the regime’s increasing reliance on coercive power to manage internal dissent and declining legitimacy.
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