What Pakistan Army Chief’s Speech Reveals About the Future of Conflict With India

The Diplomat  |  Umair Jamal

Pakistan's Army Chief and Field Marshal Asim Munir's May 10 speech at GHQ Rawalpindi offered a comprehensive assessment of the 2025 Marka-e-Haq conflict with India and Pakistan's future warfare strategy. Following India's Operation Sindoor, which escalated into a four-day multi-domain clash, Munir warned that future Indian "misadventures" would trigger widespread, dangerous responses, reinforcing Pakistan's Full Spectrum Deterrence doctrine against limited war. He emphasized a shift towards multi-domain operations integrating cyber, electronic warfare, drones, and AI, reflecting ongoing military modernization and restructuring. Munir also framed the 2025 conflict ideologically, strengthening internal cohesion. Diplomatically, he asserted Pakistan emerged with "more friends," challenging India's containment efforts and regional ambitions. Reaffirming Pakistan's unwavering stance on Kashmir, Munir's speech signals a confident, strategically emboldened Pakistan moving beyond a purely defensive posture, projecting enhanced military capabilities and diplomatic relevance.

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Starlink and Risks for India – Takshashila Institution

Takshashila Institution | Ashwin Prasad Rao , Aditya Ramanathan , Col. Das (Retd.)

Starlink presents significant strategic risks for India, primarily stemming from its technological dominance, Elon Musk's influence on the US government, and his erratic conduct. India's existing Global Mobile Personal Communication by Satellite (GMPCS) regulations are insufficient, relying on self-certification and difficult independent enforcement. Key concerns include Starlink's potential to leverage sensitive user data for intelligence or commercial advantage, as evidenced by its 2026 privacy policy update allowing data sharing for AI training with xAI. Musk's history of selectively restricting Starlink access in Ukraine and the company's refusal to share user data with Indian authorities regarding illegal usage in Manipur and Andaman Islands underscore the challenges. The article highlights the technical difficulty of blocking illicit Starlink usage due to its dense LEO constellation and adaptive software. India should bolster its Digital Bharat Nidhi scheme to expand domestic broadband and diversify satellite internet vendors for critical applications like disaster relief, reducing over-reliance on a single foreign provider.

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Pakistan embraces its new role as wartime mediator

The Week  |  Rafi Schwartz

Pakistan has unexpectedly emerged as a crucial mediator in the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, hosting multiple rounds of ceasefire negotiations. Despite its domestic challenges and previously volatile relationship with the Trump administration, Islamabad has leveraged its connections with Saudi Arabia and China to significantly enhance its geopolitical influence. Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir reportedly enjoys favor with U.S. President Donald Trump, while Pakistan also emphasizes its "brotherly" ties with Iran. The country's nuclear power status grants it a "head start in terms of credibility," a factor Iran reportedly seeks. China, sharing common cause against India with Pakistan, plays a vital background role in these peace efforts. Pakistan is actively working to shed its image as a "breeding ground for terrorism," aiming to portray itself as a "responsible middle power" capable of ensuring regional security from the Arabian Peninsula to the Indian border.

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Twelve CEOs and a President Walk Into Beijing

FrameTheGlobeNews  |  The Ren Way

A high-level delegation comprising twelve prominent American CEOs and a US President visiting Beijing highlights the profound economic entanglement between the two global powers. This scenario, characterized by an aggregate market capitalization exceeding ten trillion dollars and significant lobbying expenditures in Washington, underscores a critical American dependency on China. The article posits that this dependency heavily influences American foreign policy, potentially compromising strategic autonomy when this 'performance stops,' implying a breakdown or re-evaluation of the relationship. Such deep corporate and political integration raises questions about the resilience of US national interests against economic leverage, particularly in a competitive geopolitical landscape. The presence of such influential figures in Beijing signals the ongoing challenge of decoupling and the complex interplay between corporate profits and national security objectives, revealing vulnerabilities in the face of shifting global dynamics and the potential for China to exploit these economic ties for strategic advantage.

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China’s Rare-Earth Card Looms Over Trump-Xi Summit

Foreign Policy | Christina Lu

China's dominant position in the global rare-earth supply chain presents a significant strategic leverage point for Beijing, particularly in the context of an anticipated summit between President Trump and President Xi. These critical minerals are indispensable for a wide array of advanced technologies, including defense systems, electronics, and renewable energy components, making the United States deeply vulnerable to any potential export restrictions or disruptions. Despite Washington's ongoing efforts to secure alternative sources and develop domestic processing capabilities, its reliance on Chinese rare earths persists. Beijing is poised to utilize this "rare-earth card" as a powerful bargaining chip during high-stakes trade and technology negotiations, aiming to extract concessions or influence policy outcomes. The summit underscores the intensifying economic and technological competition, with control over critical mineral supply chains emerging as a pivotal element of national security and geopolitical influence.

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Will Trump Betray Taiwan?

Project Syndicate  |  Eyck Freymann

US President Donald Trump's upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping presents a critical juncture for Taiwan's autonomy, as Xi is characterized as a patient, perceptive, and ambitious leader. While the meeting's agenda includes diverse topics such as the Iran war, nuclear weapons, tariffs, and AI, Taiwan will undoubtedly be a central point of discussion, with Xi expected to demonstrate inflexibility. Safeguarding Taiwan's self-governance hinges on preventing Xi from perceiving any signal that his long-term strategy, which includes a psychological component for takeover, no longer requires patience. The article suggests that Trump's potential carelessness or transactional approach could inadvertently provide such a signal, thereby undermining efforts to maintain the status quo and increasing the risk to Taiwan's future. The strategic implications underscore the delicate balance of power and the critical importance of US diplomatic resolve in deterring Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. The full agenda for the summit can be found here.

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China Is Squandering a Golden Opportunity: Why Beijing Has Failed to Exploit Trump’s Missteps

Foreign Affairs  |  David Shambaugh

U.S. President Donald Trump, since returning to the White House in January 2025, has bullied, scolded, and coerced countries globally, creating a vast geostrategic vacuum that China has largely failed to exploit. Despite this "golden opportunity" to expand its influence and tilt the global balance of power, Beijing's efforts have yielded mixed results, leading many countries to hedge against both superpowers. China's strategic toolkit, encompassing diplomacy, soft power, military, and economics, exhibits significant limitations. Its extensive diplomatic presence, while broad, lacks impact, rarely brokering major conflicts. Soft power initiatives, like the Belt and Road Initiative, have produced mixed returns, with international views of China remaining largely unfavorable according to Pew polls. Militarily, China lacks conventional power projection capabilities beyond its immediate region, possessing only one foreign base compared to the U.S.'s extensive alliance network. While economically powerful, China's influence is uneven, facing challenges in Europe due to its alignment with Russia, espionage, and trade imbalances. In the Global South, despite historical cultivation and significant investment, growing resentment over Chinese workers and perceived neocolonialism is eroding goodwill. Even in the Middle East, China's influence remains limited despite some diplomatic successes like mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

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Trump's visit to China could set relations for many years to come

BBC  |  Anthony Zurcher, Laura Bicker

US President Donald Trump's upcoming visit to China is poised to significantly shape superpower relations for years, addressing critical geopolitical and economic flashpoints. The summit, hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping, will focus on China's mediation efforts in the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran, where Beijing, alongside Pakistan, has proposed a five-point ceasefire plan for the Strait of Hormuz. Economically, China, facing slower growth and higher oil prices due to the Iran conflict, seeks stability, potentially leveraging its influence for concessions. Tensions over Taiwan are also central, with the US sending mixed signals regarding its security commitments and China increasing military pressure, possibly pushing for stronger US opposition to Taiwan independence. Furthermore, trade disputes, including US tariffs and China's rare earth mineral exports, remain critical, with the US aiming to boost agricultural purchases and China seeking to halt trade probes. A burgeoning "AI cold war" is also evident, as both nations race for technological dominance, with China's reliance on US high-end chips potentially being traded for its rare earth leverage. The outcome of this brief but consequential encounter will set the trajectory for future negotiations.

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What a former CIA analyst reveals about a potential China fight

The Washington Post  |  Max Boot

John Culver, a former CIA analyst and leading authority on the Chinese military, offers insights into China's military capabilities and strategic lessons derived from the U.S. conflict with Iran. In an interview conducted by Max Boot, Culver's analysis precedes a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, highlighting the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) development since 1985. Culver, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, previously served as national intelligence officer for East Asia. His expertise provides a critical assessment of the potential for conflict between the United States and China, emphasizing the PLA's strategic evolution and its interpretation of recent geopolitical events, particularly those involving U.S. military engagements.

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Asia Isn’t as Peaceful as It Seems

Foreign Policy | Huong Le Thu

The perceived peace in Asia is increasingly fragile, as the ongoing U.S.-Iran stalemate and potential for conflict in the Middle East establish a dangerous precedent for the Indo-Pacific region. This strategic development suggests that established norms against warfare are dissolving, potentially emboldening revisionist powers or altering the calculus for regional security. The article likely explores how a future Trump administration's approach to Iran, or the broader implications of Middle Eastern instability, could influence the dynamics between major actors like the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific. This erosion of conflict aversion could lead to heightened tensions, increased military posturing, and a greater risk of miscalculation in flashpoints across Asia, challenging the existing regional order and demanding a reassessment of deterrence strategies.

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China Was Ready for the Age of Anarchy: Why Turbulence Will Make Beijing More Assertive

Foreign Affairs

China, historically framing its foreign policy around noninterference and anti-imperialism, is recalibrating its strategic posture in response to a perceived era of global anarchy and declining U.S.-led order. Beijing, despite its foundational narrative, has long engaged in activities beyond its borders, from supporting insurgencies to establishing overseas military facilities in places like Mao's era. The unraveling of the U.S.-led security order, particularly under a hypothetical Trump second presidency, has prompted China to view its global commercial, technological, and security interests as increasingly vulnerable. Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the security establishment, including the Ministry of State Security and CICIR, now assess the international system as entering a turbulent "law of the jungle" phase, necessitating a more assertive and interventionist approach to protect its vast overseas interests, including the Belt and Road Initiative. This involves building an "entire chain" overseas security protection system, expanding intelligence collection, deepening international security cooperation, and potentially deploying private security firms or even considering a revised "Interventionism 2.0" doctrine, moving away from strict noninterference to safeguard its "lifelines" and strategic corridors globally.

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Trump’s Trade War With China: How We Got to a Stalemate In 3 Numbers

The New York Times  |  Alexandra Stevenson

President Trump's aggressive trade war against China, initiated with vows of steep tariffs to punish perceived unfair practices, has resulted in an uneasy truce rather than the initially threatened economic freeze. Despite Trump's promise of significantly higher tariffs on Chinese goods, China now faces an average tariff rate of approximately 22 percent, according to Nomura, which, while higher than other countries, is considerably less than the initial threats. This outcome, described as a stalemate, follows a period where trade between the two nations nearly halted and Chinese officials derided the standoff. The article sets the stage for an upcoming meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping, highlighting the shift from an intense trade conflict to a more moderated, albeit still tense, economic relationship.

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I Ran the N.S.A. This Is How to Defeat China’s Hacker Army.

The New York Times  |  Timothy D. Haugh

China has actively targeted America’s telecommunications networks, intellectual property, and critical utilities for at least a decade, employing sustained intrusion campaigns like Volt Typhoon to pre-position malware in hundreds of local utility systems and Salt Typhoon to tap senior American officials' phones. This aggressive cyber espionage and sabotage, which includes stealing intellectual property valued between $225 billion and $600 billion annually, highlights a significant vulnerability for the United States. The author, a former head of the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command, argues that while a summit with President Xi Jinping offers an opportunity to raise these issues, the primary responsibility for defense lies with Americans. The U.S. possesses a substantial advantage in its technical capability, network reach, and institutional knowledge within its cybersecurity industry. To effectively counter China, the government must move beyond voluntary information sharing, rewrite opaque laws, assist states and municipalities in patching vulnerabilities, and invest in advanced countermeasures, fostering a system of shared responsibility between industry and all levels of government.

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China Believes America Will Flame Out

The Atlantic  |  Ryan Hass

China is strategically biding its time, positioning itself to assume global leadership as the United States is perceived to decline. Beijing views America as "declining but dangerous," a late-stage power prone to aggressive actions, and has historically theorized about its internal fragilities, as exemplified by Wang Huning's 1990s observations on U.S. social fragmentation and political dysfunction. Rather than directly confronting the U.S. or overtly capitalizing on current American internal divisions and foreign conflicts, such as the war in the Persian Gulf, China offers only indirect support to partners like Iran. This restraint is not a sign of weakness but a deliberate long-game strategy to allow China's dominance to emerge organically as a fact on the ground, rather than through a climactic victory. China's approach underscores a patient, calculated geopolitical maneuver to fill a perceived future leadership vacuum.

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Trump-Xi summit: A decade on, the US president returns to a stronger and more assertive China

BBC News  |  Laura Bicker

President Donald Trump's return visit to Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping underscores China's significant strategic evolution over the past decade, transforming into a stronger and more assertive global power. China, now well into Xi's unprecedented third term, has heavily invested in "new productive forces" like renewable energy, robotics, and artificial intelligence, exemplified by megacities such as Chongqing. The US now acknowledges China as a "near-peer," reflecting a profound shift from Trump's 2017 visit. While trade, technology, and Taiwan remain thorny issues, Iran has emerged as a new source of tension, with Trump seeking China's help to broker a deal. Beijing has strategically reduced its reliance on the US market, diversifying trade partners and bolstering domestic industries like electric vehicles. Despite showcasing soft power and economic dynamism, China faces internal challenges including local government debt, a sluggish property sector, and persistent low consumption. The summit navigates a complex landscape of technological supremacy competition, particularly over advanced AI chips, and geopolitical influence, with China aiming to project stability amidst global shifts.

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Trump's Golden Dome Projected to Cost $1.2 Trillion and May Not Work as Advertised

TIME |  Nik Popli

President Donald Trump's proposed "Golden Dome" missile defense system is projected to cost $1.2 trillion over two decades, significantly exceeding initial estimates, according to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis. Established by executive order in Trump's second term, this ambitious initiative aims to create a sweeping network, including 7,800 space-based interceptors, to defend the entire continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii against long-range ballistic and hypersonic missiles from adversaries like Russia and China. While partly inspired by Israel's Iron Dome, the American version faces immense technical and financial challenges due to its vast scope and reliance on unproven space-based technology. The CBO warned the system might only counter limited attacks and could be overwhelmed by large-scale assaults. Despite congressional funding allocations, the project's feasibility, strategic necessity, and financial sustainability are under intense scrutiny, with critics labeling it a potential "massive giveaway to defense contractors."

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Special Operations Forces test mobile platform for direct satellite imagery access

SpaceNews  |  Sandra Erwin

U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) is evaluating a mobile software platform developed by Austin-based geospatial data company SkyFi, designed to provide operators in the field with direct access to commercial satellite imagery and analytics. This platform integrates with Android Tactical Assault Kit (ATAK) devices, enabling tactical edge forces to bypass traditional centralized intelligence processing and directly retrieve or task satellite data during missions. The initiative addresses the growing demand for rapid, on-demand intelligence from the expanding commercial Earth-observation satellite sector, enhancing battlefield awareness and mission coordination. While direct satellite tasking still requires cloud connectivity, the system allows for uploading relevant archived imagery pre-mission and requesting new collections in the field, with a focus on bandwidth management to deliver highly localized data sets. The technology, which has been tested with military units outside the U.S., also holds potential for civilian agencies and emergency-response organizations utilizing ATAK devices, such as law enforcement and firefighting services, indicating a broader strategic shift towards decentralized, direct-to-device intelligence dissemination.

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In double trouble: Iran’s oil crisis – opinion

The Jerusalem Post  |  MIKE EVANS

Iran's Islamic Republic is facing a severe oil crisis, characterized by a US-led naval blockade that is significantly choking its crude oil export capabilities and threatening the regime's economic stability. This blockade has led to stalled tankers, rerouted vessels, and millions of barrels of crude sitting idle, forcing Iran to reduce production to avoid permanent damage to its oil fields. The reduction directly impacts government revenues, which are over 40% dependent on oil exports, intensifying currency pressure and increasing domestic instability. Historically, Iran has leveraged oil wealth to finance regional terror proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas; thus, economic pressure aims to diminish its capacity to fund these destabilizing activities. The regime's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy choke point, are now perceived as signs of desperation rather than strength, as its own economy suffocates. This strategic standoff between the US and Iran is a test of endurance, with the crisis exposing deep structural failures within the regime, signaling a potential breaking point.

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Microsoft Confirms Active 0-Day Exploit—Check Emergency Mitigation

Forbes  |  Davey Winder

The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has confirmed active exploitation of a critical Microsoft Exchange zero-day vulnerability, CVE-2026-42897, adding it to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog. This spoofing vulnerability, affecting on-premises Exchange Server versions (2016, 2019, Subscription Edition) but not Exchange Online, allows unauthenticated remote code execution when a maliciously crafted email is opened in Outlook Web Access. Microsoft recommends immediate mitigation via its Exchange Emergency Mitigation Service (EEMS), urging organizations to enable and validate its functionality, specifically checking for mitigation ID M2.1.x. Experts warn that a pending formal patch forces a mitigation-only posture, making prompt EEMS validation crucial to prevent full domain compromise. This incident underscores the inherent risks of on-premises Exchange and advocates for accelerated migration to Exchange Online or the implementation of zero-trust gateways to secure enterprise communications.

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Target Audience Analysis of the Iranian Lego Video: Unpacking the Virality of AI Propaganda

EdgeTheory

Iranian regime-aligned AI-generated propaganda videos are rapidly spreading across Western and global social media, evolving modern information operations beyond traditional state propaganda. These Lego-style animated videos, leveraging AI-generated battle scenes and meme formats, embed ideological narratives within entertainment content optimized for platforms like X, TikTok, Instagram, and Telegram. EdgeTheory's research indicates this campaign achieved over 145 million views in March alone, prioritizing rapid visibility and emotional engagement over direct persuasion. The content targets diverse audiences, including younger Western users, anti-establishment communities, and politically disengaged groups, by blending geopolitical messaging with internet culture. This strategy normalizes Iranian narratives and softens perceptions of the regime, even through ironic or humorous engagement. Effective mitigation requires counter-messaging that mirrors the speed, format, and emotional appeal of the original content, combining rapid detection with equally engaging counter-content to promote media literacy and expose manipulation tactics, as traditional fact-checking is insufficient.

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The Indo-Pacific and the Challenge of Multilateral AI Governance

The National Bureau of Asian Research | Renan Araujo

Indo-Pacific countries have actively shaped international AI governance, leading initiatives like the G-7 Hiroshima AI Process and contributing to the International Network for Advanced AI Measurement, Evaluation and Science. However, this multilateral momentum faces headwinds from the United States' preference for bilateral agreements[1] and China's centralized proposals, which lack broad participation[2]. Opportunities for AI cooperation persist within existing security partnerships such as the Quad and AUKUS, and economic organizations like APEC and ASEAN, focusing on joint operational testbeds, defense-oriented testing, early-warning incident reporting, shared procurement, regional compute hubs, and talent retention programs[8]. Domestically, Indo-Pacific nations should build technical capacity and institutional infrastructure, leveraging their access to semiconductor supply chains, critical minerals, and data center investments to prepare for AI's transformative impact.

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Part 2: The U.S. Munitions Problem

Small Wars Journal

The U.S. munitions inventory has been significantly depleted following a 39-day air campaign against Iran, raising concerns about preparedness for future conflicts, particularly against adversaries like China. A CSIS report indicates that while current operations are not constrained, long-term readiness is weakened. Key long-range precision fires, such as the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM), saw over 1,000 units each expended, representing a substantial portion of available theater stocks. The Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), a newer system, also saw 40-70 units used from a small initial inventory. Delivery times for these critical munitions average around four years, exacerbating resupply challenges and impacting allied capacity-building efforts, such as delayed TLAM deliveries to Japan. The heavy reliance on these systems, crucial for standoff capabilities against robust air defenses, underscores an urgent need for faster procurement and production to meet future demand, especially in the Indo-Pacific.

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Drone Swarms Packed Into Unassuming Containers Sought By DARPA

The War Zone | Joseph Trevithick

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is actively soliciting concepts for highly autonomous drone swarms, specifically seeking containerized systems capable of launching, recovering, and sustaining up to 500 Group 1-3 drones for multi-day operations. This initiative aims to create self-sufficient “autonomous constellations” deployable in contested areas or behind enemy lines, addressing current limitations in drone endurance, payload capacity, and recovery infrastructure. Recent conflicts, such as Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb and Israel’s near-field attacks from within Iran, underscore the strategic value of such capabilities. While the global market for containerized launch systems is growing, with China's DAMODA demonstrating advanced commercial systems, DARPA's focus on full autonomy, recovery, and sustained operations distinguishes its requirements from existing solutions.

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The age of asymmetry – the weak have learned how to make the strong bleed

Tomorrow's Affairs  |  John Sipher

The age of asymmetry has fundamentally reshaped modern conflict, revealing that military superiority no longer guarantees political victory for strong powers, as evidenced by historical and contemporary struggles. U.S. Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller's 2026 comments, reflecting a belief that power is self-justifying, are challenged by the realities of modern warfare. Examples from Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Gaza demonstrate that weaker adversaries survive punishment and deny victory by employing asymmetric strategies, including dispersed forces, drones, missiles, proxies, cyber campaigns, and information manipulation. This dynamic means that while firepower still matters, survivability, legitimacy, endurance, and adaptation are often more critical. The article argues that this challenges great powers like the United States and China, suggesting that conquering and pacifying territories like Taiwan could be far more difficult and costly than imagined. Furthermore, the casual use of force by great powers inadvertently incentivizes weaker states to pursue nuclear deterrence, viewing conventional weakness as an invitation to intervention.

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Irregular Warfare, Part Two: AI Approaches, Implications, and Proposed Recommendations

Institute for National Strategic Studies  |  Jocelyn Garcia, Dr. James Giordano

The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and non-kinetic irregular warfare (IW) represents a significant strategic threat, enabling adversaries like the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and Iran to operationalize asymmetries at scale. These nations employ doctrines such as "unrestricted warfare" and "reflexive control" to conduct algorithmically mediated cognitive campaigns, shaping perceptions of truth, threats, and institutional trust. AI compresses the temporal interval for narrative dissemination, exploiting bureaucratic latency and rendering truth uncertain, which can fracture allied cohesion and impede coordinated responses. The expanded battlespace now encompasses cognition and social confidence, allowing adversaries to probe vulnerabilities below kinetic engagement thresholds. To counter this, the article recommends establishing a dedicated AI-IW threat intelligence center, developing cognitive resistance programs for personnel and allies, integrating AI surveillance and countermeasures into operational doctrine, and funding a national AI-IW research and development program. The United States must recognize AI as a force multiplier in IW, demanding resource commitment and doctrinal innovation akin to kinetic threats.

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The Steppe Is Not a Fortress: What Mongolia Can Learn from Iran’s Mosaic Defense

Small Wars Journal | Siamak Naficy

Mongolia, a small state situated between Russia and China, should adopt a "mosaic defense" strategy, inspired by Iran's approach, to enhance its survivability against technologically superior adversaries. This strategy rejects the vulnerable "fortress model" of centralized command, which is easily paralyzed by precision strikes and cyber disruption. Iran's mosaic defense deliberately disperses critical capabilities, duplicates command authority, and localizes logistics, enabling semi-autonomous units like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij to function even if central command is degraded. For Mongolia, this necessitates decentralizing its highly concentrated infrastructure and decision-making authority away from Ulaanbaatar, embracing pre-authorization where local commanders act on intent rather than real-time instructions. While Mongolia cannot replicate Iran's external horizontal escalation, it can leverage its geographic position, critical mineral resources, and "third neighbor" diplomacy to internationalize conflicts and raise adversary costs. However, decentralized systems carry risks of internal manipulation, requiring robust authentication and clear authority boundaries. The article emphasizes that Mongolia must abandon the illusion of protecting the state by protecting its center, rediscovering its historical strength in dispersion and endurance.

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Director of Pentagon’s secretive Strategic Capabilities Office lays out focus areas

DefenseScoop  |  Jon Harper

The Pentagon's secretive Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO), led by Director Jay Dryer, is executing a $1.7 billion budget this year to rapidly prototype and transition "game-changing" high-tech solutions for near-term challenges. The SCO operates across three core portfolios: long-range fires, autonomy and AI, and "special and enabling capabilities" like cyber, electronic warfare, space, and special operations forces. Its eight focus areas include precision fires, contested logistics, novel employment, deception, advanced kill webs, countering adversary kill chains, extended reach and survivability, and cost-effective air defense. Dryer emphasized that the SCO prioritizes warfighter needs over technology, adopting a service-agnostic and cross-domain approach to develop disruptive capabilities. The office collaborates with combatant commands and industry, focusing on demonstrating efficacy and adapting to evolving threats. Notable projects include Ghost Fleet unmanned vessels, the Hypervelocity Gun Weapon System, and the Pele nuclear power plant program.

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Professional Military Education Is a National Security Imperative

Military Review | Lt. Gen. Mike Plehn, US Air Force, Retired

The United States military's Professional Military Education (PME) is a critical national security imperative, particularly as the character of warfare rapidly evolves with technologies such as lethal drones, cyberattacks, and artificial intelligence. The 2020 Joint Chiefs of Staff vision, _Developing Today’s Joint Officers for Tomorrow’s Ways of War_, underscores the necessity of deliberately developing intellectual and experiential capabilities through a four-element framework: training, education, experience, and self-improvement. This framework distinguishes between training for certainty and educating for uncertainty, fostering critical thinking for complex decision-making in crises. Historically, U.S. PME institutions, including war colleges, emerged after major conflicts to enhance military performance. The article highlights the value of in-residence PME, such as programs at the National Defense University, for cultivating strategic thought and leadership. Ultimately, a broadly and well-educated military, encompassing both officers and enlisted personnel, is deemed essential for assessing complex situations, formulating effective approaches, and ensuring the military instrument of power best supports national interests and safeguards liberty.

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Modeling the Lethality of Small Attack Drones and Loitering Munitions

Small Wars Journal |   Federico Borsari

A probabilistic model assesses the lethality of small tactical strike drones, including FPV quadcopters and loitering munitions, challenging the assumption that inexpensive FPV drones are universally effective across diverse operational environments. This model, considering target acquisition, system survival against countermeasures, and warhead lethality, provides a flexible analytical tool. While FPV drones excel in mass-centric, attritional conflicts like Ukraine, their limitations in manpower intensity, environmental susceptibility, interoperability, and sustainment render them suboptimal for demanding, dispersed operations with contested logistics. The US Marine Corps' selection of Teledyne FLIR’s Rogue-1 and Anduril’s Bolt-M for its Organic Precision Fires-Light (OPF-L) program exemplifies the need for robust, costlier solutions. The model demonstrates that high-end loitering munitions offer significantly greater reliability and lethality, especially in contested environments against peer adversaries, justifying their procurement where mass alone is insufficient.

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Iran’s positions at the NPT Review Conference are rational. Ignoring them would weaken the treaty

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists  |  Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Iran's consistent positions at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, articulated in several working papers, advocate for the condemnation and legal accountability of attacks on safeguarded nuclear facilities, provision of negative security assurances, nuclear disarmament, the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East, and the inalienable right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. The article highlights recent US-Israeli strikes on Iranian safeguarded nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in 2025 and 2026, as actions that significantly undermine the NPT's credibility. These attacks, interpreted as an escalatory and illegal action, demonstrate that an NPT non-nuclear-weapon state's installations are vulnerable to both non-NPT nuclear-armed states and NPT nuclear-weapon states. Ignoring Iran's "rational" demands, particularly regarding the protection of its nuclear infrastructure, risks weakening the treaty's foundational principles and its ability to ensure international security and non-proliferation, as well as violating the treaty’s preamble.

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