RYO NAKAMURA
The American military is willing to discuss with Japan and South Korea forming trilateral operational plans for contingencies involving North Korea and China, the top U.S. general for nuclear operations suggested to Nikkei.
U.S. forces face simultaneous challenges on multiple fronts across the world, ranging from the unprecedented attack on Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas to Russia's 20-month-old invasion of Ukraine, while China and North Korea continue to take provocative actions in the Indo-Pacific region.
"We haven't taken our eye off the ball on what we see across the globe, especially in my portfolio, even with what we're seeing in the Middle East," said Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, in a phone interview on Monday. He stressed that the U.S. is still closely watching North Korea and China.
"I'm confident that the nation is able to support Ukraine, Israel and maintain global readiness throughout the world," said Cotton, who oversees nuclear and global strike operations.
To address a multipolar world, the general hopes that U.S. allies and partners will play a bigger role in maintaining the rule-based international order.
"Whatever help that we can get from other allies and partners I think would be appreciated," he said.
Asked about whether a trilateral contingency planning with Tokyo and Seoul would be useful to deal with North Korean provocations, Cotton responded, "I think so," indicating that the U.S. is open to discussing such plans.
"As you think about what the pacing challenge is in the region, it's more than a [North Korea] contingency. It's how do we work together as allies and partners in regards to [China]," he said, suggesting that the joint contingency plans would include responses to China as well as North Korea.
In April, senior leaders from the American, Japanese and South Korean navies boarded the U.S. nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine Maine in Guam for the first time as Tokyo and Seoul reset bilateral relations.
"I think that's just that beginning," Cotton said. "That shows that that relationship has changed and it's getting tighter and tighter as we move forward in a very positive way."
"I don't think that it's ever been as strong as it has been now," he said.
The potential for trilateral planning is built on the "Spirit of Camp David" joint communique adopted in August by the three countries' leaders. They committed to consult with one another on handling regional crises on the premise that contingencies affect their common security.
"First, we're elevating our trilateral defense collaboration to deliver in [the] Indo-Pacific region," U.S. President Joe Biden said at a joint news conference. "That includes launching annual multidomain military exercises, bringing our trilateral defense cooperation to ... unprecedented levels."
Christopher Johnstone, Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Washington should play a leading role in building "sinews of connectivity" between the U.S.-South Korea and U.S.-Japan alliances.
"It's time to push the three governments to begin to operationalize the agreements at Camp David and build meaningful defense cooperation that goes beyond periodic exercises and strategic-level discussions," Johnstone said. "We need mechanisms for contingency planning and for operational coordination," he said.
Cotton's willingness to tighten three-way defense cooperation may reflect the sense of urgency in Washington about the deteriorating security environment in the Indo-Pacific.
North Korea is expected to launch a military satellite by the end of October. Cotton referred U.S. responses to policymakers but vowed to coordinate with allies and partners in the region, with Japan and South Korea in mind.
Cotton also reiterated that China's nuclear buildup is "wholly inconsistent" with its long-standing policy of having a minimum deterrent.
The Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power warned last year that the Asian country's nuclear warheads would likely reach about 1,500 by 2035. This would bring China closer to 1,550 -- the maximum number of warheads that the U.S. can deploy under its New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty framework with Russia.
A congressionally mandated panel argued last week that the U.S. should prepare for simultaneous war with China and Russia, given that it will need to deter the two nuclear powers simultaneously for the first time in the 2030s.
Cotton indicated that "right now, as we have a geopolitical environment that puts us in the position of two near-peer adversaries, we have to consider all of those options."
The American defense strategy is designed to handle a war in one theater. If the U.S. faces two wars, in both the Indo-Pacific and Europe, its strategies and capabilities will need adjusting.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on Wednesday. They are likely to advance security and economic cooperation with the common goal of undermining the U.S.-led international order.
"We have to watch the transactional relationships that we see with all those that we could consider as adversaries and watch that really closely," Cotton warned.
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