Igor Desyatnikov
Moscow cannot abandon Tehran without undermining a military partnership that has been vital to its war in Ukraine and weakening its carefully cultivated image as a champion of the Global South. Yet providing meaningful support risks provoking Washington, especially Donald Trump, whose unpredictability and willingness to escalate have made the Kremlin more cautious than before.
Whatever Russia does, its strategic room for maneuver is shrinking.
Iran has been more than a diplomatic partner for Moscow during the Ukraine war—it has been a critical military enabler. Early in the conflict, Russia’s drone capabilities were rudimentary and lagged behind Ukraine’s. Iranian-designed Shahed drones helped close that gap and soon became central to Russia’s campaign of long-range strikes against Ukrainian cities and civilian energy infrastructure.
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