Lucio Blanco Pitlo III
The U.S.-Israel war with Iran is exposing widening reluctance among American allies to support the conflict, signaling potential erosion in U.S. global influence. At the same time, moves to bypass the U.S. dollar in oil trade, amid growing Chinese involvement, could challenge the petrodollar and reshape the global energy order.
Two developments tied to the intensifying war in West Asia may shape the United States’ long-term global appeal: how its allies react, and whether the conflict diminishes the role of the U.S. dollar in the region’s petroleum transactions.
Cracks in the alliance
The reluctance of U.S. allies to be sucked into a war they did not sign up for is ominous. Despite suffering collateral damage from Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases they host, America’s Gulf allies are staying out of the U.S. and Israel’s war against their neighbor. They bore the brunt of Tehran’s reply to joint U.S.-Israel bombing raids. These affluent monarchies saw their petroleum exports curbed, their energy facilities damaged or threatened, and flights to and from their cities disrupted, affecting tourism and business confidence. Washington’s pledge to protect them is also put into question. U.S. military bases became big fixed targets for Iran’s asymmetrical arsenal of missiles, drones, and proxy groups. Arab partners are expending their own inventory to thwart Iranian drones and projectiles entering their airspace or territory to hit U.S. targets, including U.S. military infrastructure and diplomatic missions. Thus, security recipients are rising up to protect the assets of the supposed security guarantor, as well as their own.
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