Allyson Christy
Ending a war before defeating the enemy increases the risk for renewed confrontations. That should be anticipated from the start. An adversarial regime will maintain power, and while a cessation of hostilities ideally follows ceasefire, negotiations and agreements, it is very likely temporary. Unless its leadership and high command hierarchy and arsenal are weakened, the regime is unlikely to be destabilized. This outcome is predictable given the current Iran conflict.
Because the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) oversees a lethal three-part security apparatus separate from its regular Army, it not only functions as a bulwark for the regime’s repressive control but projects its Quds Force to regional and global asymmetric and terrorist operations. Change for the Iranian people also requires more than negotiations. The IRGC also directs a ruthless domestic militia linked to suppressing public dissent; its Basij force also harshly enforces a strict morality code.
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