Sarang Shidore
Middle powers are having a moment. But that moment has been long arriving. The decline of unipolarity—with its roots in the 2008 global financial crisis and the disastrous U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003—led to a world of three great powers: not only the United States but also China and, to a lesser extent, Russia. The latter two are working increasingly in tandem. Moreover, a set of rising nations in the global south also contributed to the waning of Washington’s hegemony.
Conditions are favorable for the emergence of a third force in international politics: middle powers. These major regional players—including Brazil, France, India, and South Korea—possess material capabilities in their region (GDP, defense spending, etc.) and enjoy appreciable global influence. They also now sense an opportunity. The past few years have provided still more fodder for their collaboration. First, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, igniting the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II—and then, amid Kyiv’s long, grinding war with Moscow, the Trump administration pulled back on its financial support, further unnerving Europe. Second, Washington’s brazen territorial claims on Canada and Greenland shocked its NATO allies. Meanwhile in Asia, China stepped up harassment of Philippine craft in pursuing its illegal claims in the South China Sea and gradually enhanced its military shows of force around Taiwan in the context of a growing U.S. military footprint in the region.
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