Jan Kallberg
US political scientist Kenneth N. Waltz wrote in 1990 that the power of nuclear weapons resides in what a nation can do, not what it does. Similar rules apply to cyber threats: uncertainty over possible capabilities is far more powerful than absolute certainty over their limitations and shortcomings. For a decade, there has been a steady stream of concerns and reports about Iran’s cyber capabilities, fueled by bold statements from Tehran. They have reached new levels during the US-Israeli war on Iran, with assertions that Western infrastructure, businesses, and governments could be severely damaged by cyberattacks.
As the air campaign began on February 28, there was widespread understanding that cyber retaliation against the $30 trillion US economy was on its way. Declaring that it was the “response to ongoing cyber assaults against the infrastructure of the Axis of Resistance,” Handala, an Iran-linked hacking group, said the world would see the wrath of the Islamic Republic and its cyber warfare units.
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