Mick Ryan
Deploying ground forces without defined political objectives leads to failure.
America is weighing the deployment of land forces onto Iranian territory – a move that would dramatically escalate the war and risk drawing it into a prolonged conflict. While this conflict is not Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam or any number of previous wars, history offers a guide on employing ground forces. They can be extraordinarily decisive when used at scale, for the right mission and with a clear political objective. But, without these things, land operations can result in tactical catastrophe, the death of soldiers and marines, and overall political failure in war.
All strategies start with a diagnosis of the problem to be solved. Any consideration of land force operations in Iran – and in any war – must begin with the following question: “What problem will land forces solve?”
The political objectives of employing land forces are several. First, the American president will want Iran to see US troops on the ground as a profound statement about US will. He will want them to know that he is not giving up and walking away from the war. Second, Trump will use land forces as a statement of commitment to regional allies: America is not abandoning you. And finally, the commitment of land forces will aim to solve an ongoing political quandary for Trump: how to bring the Iranians to the table, quickly, for diplomatic negotiations that can end the war.
What might be America’s military objectives? Securing Iran’s enriched nuclear material will be a high priority – a mission that both American and Israeli ground forces have rehearsed for years, although rehearsals do not guarantee success or casualty-free operations.
Another priority will be to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Not only is the shipping restriction having a profound impact on the global economy, but it is also being used by Iran as a symbol of American weakness in its cognitive warfare. The US mission might also be to seize ground objectives – including refineries, bases, islands – that provide America with enhanced leverage in diplomatic negotiations. Most of these operations would best be described as raids and could last from hours to days. Maybe.
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